A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[moonslav59]

And it doesn't help matters that he keeps misspelling Chaim.

 

If it's deliberate, that too need explanation.

[Larry Cook]

If it's deliberate, that too need explanation.

 

Definitely not deliberate, for some reason the stupid I phone brings it up like that.

 

Bloom’s role on the Sox reminds me of Eastwood’s role in hang’em high.

[moonslav59]

Definitely not deliberate, for some reason the stupid I phone brings it up like that.

 

Bloom’s role on the Sox reminds me of Eastwood’s role in hang’em high.

 

It sounds like a derogatory term.

[Larry Cook]

It sounds like a derogatory term.

 

Only time will tell!

[oldtimer]

Beni got some ink today. Other teams note his metrics are trending down and his trade value may be even lower than currently projected. If JBJ does leave, we have Verdugo with Beni questionable and Duran untested. Looks like the outfield will need some attention.

[moonslav59]

Beni got some ink today. Other teams note his metrics are trending down and his trade value may be even lower than currently projected. If JBJ does leave, we have Verdugo with Beni questionable and Duran untested. Looks like the outfield will need some attention.[/b]

 

Even if we knew Beni would return to form, we'd still sign a CF'er. (Maybe a RF'er, if we move Verdugo to CF.)

[notin]

It sounds like a derogatory term.

 

Not at all.

 

In that movie set in the old West, Clint Eastwood gets revenge on the lynch mob that tried to hang him by trading them to the Dodgers, thus resetting the tax...

[moonslav59]

Not at all.

 

In that movie set in the old West, Clint Eastwood gets revenge on the lynch mob that tried to hang him by trading them to the Dodgers, thus resetting the tax...

 

Now, it makes total sense!

 

Hang 'em high Chiam!

[moonslav59]

It would be nice to have one significant acquisition to talk about.

[oldtimer]

It would be nice to have one significant acquisition to talk about.

 

You and others have speculated on many of the possible moves. hang in there and the management will make some moves. We have a lot of holes to fill. The questions for me are 1) Will they take on veteran players to make us somewhat competitive in 2021 or younger players with high potential who we can develop? and 2) Do they try to stay under the salary cap this year, realizing we cannot turn this sows ear into a silk purse in just one year?

[notin]

You and others have speculated on many of the possible moves. hang in there and the management will make some moves. We have a lot of holes to fill. The questions for me are 1) Will they take on veteran players to make us somewhat competitive in 2021 or younger players with high potential who we can develop? and 2) Do they try to stay under the salary cap this year, realizing we cannot turn this sows ear into a silk purse in just one year?

 

Why can’t they become competitive in one year? The Sox have gone from “worst to first” TWICE in the past 8 years...

[jad]

After last night, I think the best off-season move would be to hire Snoop Dog to pair up with Joe C.

[Bellhorn04]

Why can’t they become competitive in one year? The Sox have gone from “worst to first” TWICE in the past 8 years...

 

I think they could too.

 

Let's face it, sometimes it depends on a lot of luck. In 2013, guys like Victorino, Napoli and Drew performed like Supermen, only to turn back into Clark Kents the next year.

 

2020's list of asks for great luck might look like this:

 

1) E-Rod

2) Eovaldi

3) Sale

4) Houck

 

All of the above outperform expectations.

 

5) Chaim Bloom pulls off a few minor miracles in upgrades the next few months.

6) Raffy Devers is so excited by the return of Cora that he puts up a 7 WAR season.

 

And so forth.

[notin]

I think they could too.

 

Let's face it, sometimes it depends on a lot of luck. In 2013, guys like Victorino, Napoli and Drew performed like Supermen, only to turn back into Clark Kents the next year.

 

2020's list of asks for great luck might look like this:

 

1) E-Rod

2) Eovaldi

3) Sale

4) Houck

 

All of the above outperform expectations.

 

5) Chaim Bloom pulls off a few minor miracles in upgrades the next few months.

6) Raffy Devers is so excited by the return of Cora that he puts up a 7 WAR season.

 

And so forth.

 

And you're only using the people already in-house.

 

They hired Ron Roenicke to take a beating. They fired Roenicke, so the beating is over.

 

They reset, and used it as a marketing tool. That means additions. No idea who (although I have theories and wish lists), but there should be some improvements to this team.

 

Thy might not (likely won't) win a WS title in 2021, but I expect a markedly improved team, one that is at the very least, still playing for post-season games in September (assuming 162 game schedule)...

[Bellhorn04]

Thy might not (likely won't) win a WS title in 2021, but I expect a markedly improved team, one that is at the very least, still playing for post-season games in September (assuming 162 game schedule)...

 

Yeah, I don't even like the idea of winning the WS as a goal. I agree that winning 85+ games and being in the hunt in September would be a fine goal.

[moonslav59]

Why can’t they become competitive in one year? The Sox have gone from “worst to first” TWICE in the past 8 years...

 

We can, but the odds are low, and to me, it makes more sense to look to improving in 2021 while focusing on 2022 and beyond.

 

A few one year deals for 2021, but any longer term deal should be for players that look to improve 2-4 years out from now.

 

I also don't think the foundation we have, now, is as good as the one we had after 2012 or 2015, especially in terms of young talent and the amount of tradeable prospects and/or budget space we had those winters.

 

Unless Henry decides we can go up to or over the second luxury btax line, this winter (doubtful), we don't have a big budget to work with, and our farm is not promising much help for the 2021 season.

 

Apples and oranges.

[mvp 78]

@SmittyOnMLB

Boston Red Sox’s Chris Sale projected for 2.97 ERA, 17 starts, 94 innings in 2021 in return from Tommy John surgery, per Bill James Handbook

[moonslav59]

@SmittyOnMLB

Boston Red Sox’s Chris Sale projected for 2.97 ERA, 17 starts, 94 innings in 2021 in return from Tommy John surgery, per Bill James Handbook

 

17 starts would be great!

[notin]

We can, but the odds are low, and to me, it makes more sense to look to improving in 2021 while focusing on 2022 and beyond.

 

A few one year deals for 2021, but any longer term deal should be for players that look to improve 2-4 years out from now.

 

I also don't think the foundation we have, now, is as good as the one we had after 2012 or 2015, especially in terms of young talent and the amount of tradeable prospects and/or budget space we had those winters.

 

Unless Henry decides we can go up to or over the second luxury btax line, this winter (doubtful), we don't have a big budget to work with, and our farm is not promising much help for the 2021 season.

 

Apples and oranges.

 

We really don't know what if any limitations Henry has put on the budget. but we do know he does on occasion allow it to get very high.

 

And exactly how good was the foundation of the 2012 Red Sox? They had Pedroia, Ellsbury and Ortiz in the lineup, and Lester in the rotation. (And Lackey coming off TJ.) The starters expected back included Middlebrooks and Saltalamacchia. Thay had vacancies at 1B, SS, LF, and RF.

 

The rotation lost Beckett and Aaron Cook. (Yes, Aaron Cook). And the best reliever was Junichi Tazawa, although Andrew Miller was pretty good, too. But this was not a team that looked one season away after the Gonzalez/Beckett trade..

 

The Sox did have Bogaerts, but the only other rookies of note that year were Iglesias, Workman and Bradley (although this was long before JBJ learned how to hit).

 

The 2020 Red Sox arguably had a better lineup than the one that ended the 2012 season. And while Lester/Lackey was a formidable pair in front of the rotation, ERod/Sale can be one as well.

 

This team definitely needs more pitching, but will also have fewer holes to fuill in the lineup, possibly just 2B and CF, and might be able to do so amidst a stretch where many MLB teams are not spending.

 

THere is no reason to write off 2021 just yet. At least not until we see what Bloom actually does....

[moonslav59]

We really don't know what if any limitations Henry has put on the budget. but we do know he does on occasion allow it to get very high.

 

And exactly how good was the foundation of the 2012 Red Sox? They had Pedroia, Ellsbury and Ortiz in the lineup, and Lester in the rotation. (And Lackey coming off TJ.) The starters expected back included Middlebrooks and Saltalamacchia. Thay had vacancies at 1B, SS, LF, and RF.

 

The rotation lost Beckett and Aaron Cook. (Yes, Aaron Cook). And the best reliever was Junichi Tazawa, although Andrew Miller was pretty good, too. But this was not a team that looked one season away after the Gonzalez/Beckett trade..

 

The Sox did have Bogaerts, but the only other rookies of note that year were Iglesias, Workman and Bradley (although this was long before JBJ learned how to hit).

 

The 2020 Red Sox arguably had a better lineup than the one that ended the 2012 season. And while Lester/Lackey was a formidable pair in front of the rotation, ERod/Sale can be one as well.

 

This team definitely needs more pitching, but will also have fewer holes to fuill in the lineup, possibly just 2B and CF, and might be able to do so amidst a stretch where many MLB teams are not spending.

 

THere is no reason to write off 2021 just yet. At least not until we see what Bloom actually does....

 

I seriously doubt we have anywhere near the spending budget we had that winter, this year.

 

2012 dollars are not the same as 2016-2019

Vic $13M x 3

Dempster $13M x 2

Ortiz $13M x 2

Drew $9.5M x 1

Gomes $5M x 2

Napoli $5M x 1 (+ bonuses)

Uehara $4M x 1

D Ross $3.1M x 2

 

With the pandemic lowering prices on some free agents, my guess is, there may be some great value signings at the end of the signing period. Maybe Bloom swoops in a signs 7-10 players. Lord know, we have room for 10 or more on our current roster. At worst, we end up trading some at the deadline, if we fall out of contention.

 

Many late deals will likely be just one year deals, but I could see henry saying it's fine going over the tax line when most are one year deals. It would start the clock on year 2 and 3, so maybe he wants to stay under one more year, but if we do go over, the limit might be $19.9M over, which would give Bloom plenty of space to "work his magic" on mid range to low level signings.

Edited November 30, 2020 by moonslav59

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Compared to the 2021 Sox, as is, the 2013 Sox had a big advantage going into the season: a healthy rotation. The Big Three were once again pitching like the All-Stars they once were -- Lester was still under 30, Lackey was a go from Day 1 (and not Day August 1, like we hope for Sale), and Buchholz was as good as anyone in the AL, until he got hurt.

 

Bloom can most likely find a few #4/5 types like past-their-primes Dempster and Peavy, and maybe Pivetta and Houk can combine for Dubront's 29 starts. ERod is capable of giving us another ace-like 200+ innings like Lester, and Eovaldi has the goods to go on a Buch 13-1 run... possible, but reasonable? If they all do come through, we'll just need to discover a closer with a miracle year better than any in Mariano Rivera's career -- like Koji.

 

The real key to contention for Boston in the coming season may just come down to how many clubs they decide to allow into the expanded playoffs.

[moonslav59]

Compared to the 2021 Sox, as is, the 2013 Sox had a big advantage going into the season: a healthy rotation. The Big Three were once again pitching like the All-Stars they once were -- Lester was still under 30, Lackey was a go from Day 1 (and not Day August 1, like we hope for Sale), and Buchholz was as good as anyone in the AL, until he got hurt.

 

Bloom can most likely find a few #4/5 types like past-their-primes Dempster and Peavy, and maybe Pivetta and Houk can combine for Dubront's 29 starts. ERod is capable of giving us another ace-like 200+ innings like Lester, and Eovaldi has the goods to go on a Buch 13-1 run... possible, but reasonable? If they all do come through, we'll just need to discover a closer with a miracle year better than any in Mariano Rivera's career -- like Koji.

 

The real key to contention for Boston in the coming season may just come down to how many clubs they decide to allow into the expanded playoffs.

 

Anything can happen, and many felt we had long odds after 2012 and before we signed anyone. Some felt that way even after the many signings.

 

I guess we should wait to see who Bloom signs and trades for before comparing to the 2013 team.

 

(I just don't see a big spending winter like we had 2012-2013.)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Anything can happen, and many felt we had long odds after 2012 and before we signed anyone. Some felt that way even after the many signings.

 

I guess we should wait to see who Bloom signs and trades for before comparing to the 2013 team.

 

(I just don't see a big spending winter like we had 2012-2013.)

 

I'd be shocked if Bloom signs any free agent with a qualifying offer, and gives up a draft pick. Then again, his bosses may tell him he has to, for the good of the product in 2021... which, if it's any of Bauer, Springer, Realmuto, doesn't that make the club better for the next three years or so, anyway? (esp. if the new CBA changes, as expected).

[notin]

Hey Bauer’s gotta sign somewhere ...

[moonslav59]

I'd be shocked if Bloom signs any free agent with a qualifying offer, and gives up a draft pick. Then again, his bosses may tell him he has to, for the good of the product in 2021... which, if it's any of Bauer, Springer, Realmuto, doesn't that make the club better for the next three years or so, anyway? (esp. if the new CBA changes, as expected).

 

Maybe we go the 2013 route and sign a bunch of mid level players. The prices might be just right for that plan.

[mvp 78]

Hey Bauer’s gotta sign somewhere ...

 

It just won't be anywhere near 128.

[notin]

It just won't be anywhere near 128.

 

OK.

 

But who will be the interested spenders? So far, a lot of teams seem to be more interested in jettisoning big contracts.

 

I would keep the Sox as candidates solely because they really need to spend after the PR nightmare that was 2020. The Mets are in the same boat as well. But who else? Yankees? Dodgers? Angels? Phillies?

[Bellhorn04]

It just won't be anywhere near 128.

 

What do you predict he signs for?

[notin]

In the MLBTR Free Agent Contest, I had him signing with the Mets. No money need be disclosed, but somewhere around 2 to 3 kajillion dollars felt about right...

[notin]

In the MLBTR Free Agent Contest, I had him signing with the Mets. No money need be disclosed, but somewhere around 2 to 3 kajillion dollars felt about right...

 

Probably worth pointing out my picks so far:

 

Charlie Morton - Mets. Whoops.

Mike Minor - Padres. Double whoops

Drew Smyly - Overseas. And sadly, I was confident in this one.

 

So yeah, my prognostication abilities might be a bit overrated, regardless of how low you rate them...