A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[oldtimer]

It's not the bible, butb when DRS and UZR/150 bot point to JBJ not being a top 10 defensive CF'er during a pretty long sample size of the down slope of his prime years, it leads me to think there are some equal or better CF'ers in MLB, right now. Several cost way less, although their offense has been even worse than JBJ's ups and long downs.

 

I love defense. I love watching great defense more than great offense. JBJ has been my favorite Sox player since before he was even a starter. Defense up the middle is not over rated in my book.

 

That being said, I have seen other CF'ers that look as good or better than JBJ is, right now in his career. The numbers back up my observations, for the most part, but they are not perfect indicators of value.

 

Now, to JBJ's offense. Just as I defended JBJ's offense during slumps, I'm not fooled into thinking he has suddenly become a consistently very good hitter due to this shortened system. Overall, he'snot very good, and he's not very bad, except in short sample sizes focusing ob his hot and cold streaks.

 

From 2018-2020, his OPS is about .742. Would I bet on the over on .742 the next two to three years? No. I wouldn't feel comfortable betting the under, but if I had to choose, I would. BTW, .742 ranks 21st out of 32 CF'ers with 900+ PAs. It's very close to:

 

.755 Cain

.730 A Jones

.727 Pillar

 

It also makes me wonder about guys like these, who are worse hitters but by how much? And, does their apparent better defense cancel out JBJ's better offense? Then, what about their contract cost and how the "saved money" could be spent elsewhere to offset any possible loss in CF by signing or trading for...

 

.688 Inciarte

.682 Margot

.669 Kiermaier

 

or even a guy like Marisnik.

, but could fill

I'm fine with bringing JBJ back. He'd still be my favorite Sox player, but the more we spend on CF, the less we have for other more pressing needs.

 

 

JBJ is still a quality defensive CF who hits fairly well. He'll be 31 and probably is not in our long term plans (meaning more than 2 years), but could fill the role if we can get him at the right cost. Others you mention would cost a similar amount and would be no better. One thing you haven't mentioned about JBJ is his durability. Going with someone like Springer would be costly and his length of contract might not fit Bloom's long term plans. If we were willing to pay Benintendi $6.6 mil a year, why should we offer Bradley less? I would offer him $6.6 mil for 2 years and would love to see him accept that.

[Bellhorn04]

For 2 years?

 

I predict he gets $12M/2, but I would offer $8M/2 or $5M/1.

 

If the market for a guy like Pillar is $8M/2, I might go $9-11M/2 for JBJ.

 

$7.5M x 2 for someone who may very well be no help on offense and may also show age-related decline on defense is not what I think we need.

 

The Recency Effect should put some extra money in JBJ's pocket. Some solid numbers on offense. Best OBP of career and excellent K/BB ratio. Pretty fat WAR for the shrunken head season.

[Bellhorn04]

We have had this discussion before . But to me , UZR is not science , it is just some anonymous guy watching the games and giving his opinion . Which , allegedly , is better than ours. I just don't put much stock in it .

 

You usually have some basis for your criticisms, but in this case, they actually are using technology rather than only eyeballs.

[Bellhorn04]

JBJ is still a quality defensive CF who hits fairly well. He'll be 31 and probably is not in our long term plans (meaning more than 2 years), but could fill the role if we can get him at the right cost. Others you mention would cost a similar amount and would be no better. One thing you haven't mentioned about JBJ is his durability.

 

That's a good point oldtimer. JBJ has been super durable.

[oldtimer]

My projected Sox 40 Man Roster for Opening Day 2021:

 

60 Day IL: Pedroia, Sale, ERod

26 Man:

SP1 Eovaldi

SP2 ___FA___

SP3 Perez

SP4 ___FA___

SP5-6 Houck/Pivetta

 

RP1 ___FA___

RP2 Barnes

RP3 ___FA___

RP4 D Hern

RP5 Taylor

RP6 Brasier

RP7 Valdez

 

C Vazquez

C Plawecki

1B Dalbec

1B-2B Chavis

2B Arroyo

3B Devers

SS Bogaerts

UT Munoz

LF Benintendi

CF ___FA___

RF Verdugo

OF(1B/2B?) ___FA___

DH Martinez

 

14 Others in minors

Weber

Brewer

Mazza

1 from Covey, Walden, Godley orTapia

Chatham

Arauz

Grullon

(Rule 5 added)

Mata

Groome

Potts

Jeisson Rosario

Connor Seabold

Connor Wong

1 from Eduard Bazardo, Kutter Crawford, Chad De La Guerra, Roniel Raudes, Zach Schellinger, Alex Scherff or Jeremy Rivera

 

 

Trade, Non Tender or DFA:

Lin (out of options)

Peraza

Hart

Brice

Springs

Hall

Stock

Triggs

Kickham

Leyer

Wilson

Aybar

Puello

 

I would hope JBJ is on the roster and I expect Bloom to try to trade Beni. I know my eyes are getting dim but don't think you included Duran on your list. An outfield of Verdugo, JBJ and Duran would suit me with Munoz and possibly Chavis on the roster as backups.

[Thunder]

We have had this discussion before . But to me , UZR is not science , it is just some anonymous guy watching the games and giving his opinion . Which , allegedly , is better than ours. I just don't put much stock in it .

 

In many ways I agree. But it is worth pointing out that almost everything we find in life is the product of somebody's opinions. Like I've always despised movie reviews. Don't tell me whether I should like a movie or not. When it comes to baseball, though, I tend to shy away from advance stats. I won't be a baseball executive any time soon, so my judgment on players is founded on overall likeability. If they're a nice guy with a good story of working hard through adversity, and they are productive, I'm a fan for life. I'm not going to stay up into the wee hours of the morning trying to figure out who the best at something is, or who is the most valuable. If I was getting paid a huge salary to do that for a ball club, then by all means I would dive ten toes deep. But, I'm not, so why put myself through all that?

[notin]

You usually have some basis for your criticisms, but in this case, they actually are using technology rather than only eyeballs.

 

Paul Bunyan Syndrome (which should exist). It’s also a big roadblock in self-driven cars....

[dgalehouse]

In many ways I agree. But it is worth pointing out that almost everything we find in life is the product of somebody's opinions. Like I've always despised movie reviews. Don't tell me whether I should like a movie or not. When it comes to baseball, though, I tend to shy away from advance stats. I won't be a baseball executive any time soon, so my judgment on players is founded on overall likeability. If they're a nice guy with a good story of working hard through adversity, and they are productive, I'm a fan for life. I'm not going to stay up into the wee hours of the morning trying to figure out who the best at something is, or who is the most valuable. If I was getting paid a huge salary to do that for a ball club, then by all means I would dive ten toes deep. But, I'm not, so why put myself through all that?

 

Much like the UZR workers, the movie reviewers don't simply watch the movies and decide what they think of them the way you and I do . They study the films scientifically with an advanced computerized system . They skip the popcorn and take notice of all the little details . When they issue their ratings , they are not to be disputed .

[Bellhorn04]

Much like the UZR workers, the movie reviewers don't simply watch the movies and decide what they think of them the way you and I do . They study the films scientifically with an advanced computerized system . They skip the popcorn and take notice of all the little details . When they issue their ratings , they are not to be disputed .

 

You're doubling down!

[dgalehouse]

You're doubling down!

 

I can't help it . I'm a glutton for punishment.

[Thunder]

Much like the UZR workers, the movie reviewers don't simply watch the movies and decide what they think of them the way you and I do . They study the films scientifically with an advanced computerized system . They skip the popcorn and take notice of all the little details . When they issue their ratings , they are not to be disputed .

 

Somebody's gotta do it!

[notin]

So Sox needs:

 

SP: ?

SP: ? (Depending on ERod)

RP: ?

RP: ?

2B: Arroyo? (Thinking they don’t spend here as Pedroia is still technically alive, active and under contract.)

CF: Bradley?

LHH: Brad Miller? (Calling this slam dunk early.)

 

 

Fill in the gaps as we go...

[moonslav59]

JBJ is still a quality defensive CF who hits fairly well. He'll be 31 and probably is not in our long term plans (meaning more than 2 years), but could fill the role if we can get him at the right cost. Others you mention would cost a similar amount and would be no better. One thing you haven't mentioned about JBJ is his durability. Going with someone like Springer would be costly and his length of contract might not fit Bloom's long term plans. If we were willing to pay Benintendi $6.6 mil a year, why should we offer Bradley less? I would offer him $6.6 mil for 2 years and would love to see him accept that.

 

The comp with Beni is not meaningful, to me.

 

Yes, JBJ is still a quality defender, but there are several that are equal and better that can be had for less than $6-8M/yr.

 

His bat is not a plus.

[moonslav59]

The Recency Effect should put some extra money in JBJ's pocket. Some solid numbers on offense. Best OBP of career and excellent K/BB ratio. Pretty fat WAR for the shrunken head season.

 

It was a very short season.

 

We all know JBJ's bat has its ups and its long downs. Expecting him to continue the offense he had over his 191 ABs, this season, is not something I would do. Can we hope he does? Sure. Is it possible? Sure. s it likely? I think not.

 

The guy was under .738 for three full seasons before this short one. Three prime seasons! "Recency" does play a role, but not that big of one.

 

2017 to 2019 (1643 PAs)

.234/.318/.409/.727

 

2020 (just 217 PAs)

.283/.364/.450/.814

 

Yes, solid numbers over 55 games, but we've seen that before. It's the other 100 games we have fretted and argued over for too many years.

 

[moonslav59]

You usually have some basis for your criticisms, but in this case, they actually are using technology rather than only eyeballs.

 

...and my eyeballs have seen decline, too.

Edited October 3, 2020 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

The comp with Beni is not meaningful, to me.

 

Yes, JBJ is still a quality defender, but there are several that are equal and better that can be had for less than $6-8M/yr.

 

His bat is not a plus.

 

His bat might be a plus compared to the other CFers you're thinking of.

[moonslav59]

His bat might be a plus compared to the other CFers you're thinking of.

 

Yes, and I have mentioned that, although I think he and Pillar are close, offensively.

 

I see it this way: we can get a better defensive CF'er for way less money, especially if he end up getting what some here are saying he will or should get.

 

The drop in offense is a maybe, since with JBJ, we don't know how long the slumps will be. Assume we can be sure JBJ gives us .740-.780 and the great defensive guys we sign for $2-4M a year gives us .650-.690. How much is that drop off worth? Our offense is not our weak point- JBJ or not. Take the money saved on JBJ, maybe $4-8M depending on how much JBJ gets and who se sign instead and either sign a RP'er at $4-8M a year or add that money to a starting pitcher signing and go from a $16M/yr SP'er to a $20-22M guy. To me, that upgrade outweighs the loss on offense in CF. Factor in better D in CF, and it looks like a clear choice, to me.

 

[notin]

The money difference shouldn’t be worth it to sign Jake Marisnick or Juan Lagares. If you want dirt cheap defense, just sign Billy Hamilton.

 

But the money/offense differential might be worthwhile for Michael Taylor. However, Bradley is a known commodity over multiple full seasons. There’s a balance to be struck...

[oldtimer]

The money difference shouldn’t be worth it to sign Jake Marisnick or Juan Lagares. If you want dirt cheap defense, just sign Billy Hamilton.

 

But the money/offense differential might be worthwhile for Michael Taylor. However, Bradley is a known commodity over multiple full seasons. There’s a balance to be struck...

i lean toward the durable, good team mate who is a solid defender and seems to be capable of .750. If we can get him for 2 years in the $6 1/2 mil per year range, he can tide us over until we have a younger but proven prospect.

[moonslav59]

The money difference shouldn’t be worth it to sign Jake Marisnick or Juan Lagares. If you want dirt cheap defense, just sign Billy Hamilton.

 

But the money/offense differential might be worthwhile for Michael Taylor. However, Bradley is a known commodity over multiple full seasons. There’s a balance to be struck...

 

The "known commodity" includes incredibly long slumps and good but diminished defensive skills.

 

Yes, he's been over .800 in 3 of the last 6 seasons, but 2 of those seasons were below 260 PAs, and 3 of the last 4 seasons have been under .738.

 

.738 is not terrible for CF, especially for a plus defender, but his O WAR (fWAR) was negative for those 3 years. His career OWAR is -6.2.

 

I'm okay with not having a plus on offense at the CF and SS positions, but I'm also worried about JBJ's defense. His UZR/150 went up from last year, but he still didn't look like the "old JBJ" out there in CF.

 

His CF UZR/150 and my observations show decline.

 

8.1 in 2016

3.5 in 2017

8.8 in 2018 (peak)

-1.8 in 2019

5.5 in 2020 (small sample size)

 

His DRS in those years? 14, 15, -1, -2, 5

 

I get the sentimentality of the re-sign, but no way do I pay him what some here want us to do.

[moonslav59]

i lean toward the durable, good team mate who is a solid defender and seems to be capable of .750. If we can get him for 2 years in the $6 1/2 mil per year range, he can tide us over until we have a younger but proven prospect.

 

Yes, he's capable of .750, but even that is not really a plus.

 

Yes, he's a solid defender, but there are other who are better.

 

I get the feeling had he been a Yankee all these years, nobody, here, would want him.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If you combine durability with recent performance, it's actually surprising that a lot of posters are pencilling in Beni for the future but saying seeya to Jackie.

 

JBJ has been here it for 8 years, Benintendi for 5, and Bradley has barely ever been injured. Sure there is a five-year age gap and salary gap (due more to seniority than WAR), but after the inconsistent and even alarming regression of Beni the past two seasons, who is the better investment?

 

As for defense and analytics, I think it's dangerous to denigrate the eyeballs... I haven't seen any drop-off on JBJ -- when a fly ball heads for the gaps and you see Jackie jogging, it's a guaranteed out (yes, his jumps are that good; imagine the dives that lesser centerfielders would have to make). That's been one reassuring sight for Red Sox fans for most of the past decade, watching our pitchers serve one up: Joggin' Jackie.

[moonslav59]

If you combine durability with recent performance, it's actually surprising that a lot of posters are pencilling in Beni for the future but saying seeya to Jackie.

 

JBJ has been here it for 8 years, Benintendi for 5, and Bradley has barely ever been injured. Sure there is a five-year age gap and salary gap (due more to seniority than WAR), but after the inconsistent and even alarming regression of Beni the past two seasons, who is the better investment?

 

As for defense and analytics, I think it's dangerous to denigrate the eyeballs... I haven't seen any drop-off on JBJ -- when a fly ball heads for the gaps and you see Jackie jogging, it's a guaranteed out (yes, his jumps are that good; imagine the dives that lesser centerfielders would have to make). That's been one reassuring sight for Red Sox fans for most of the past decade, watching our pitchers serve one up: Joggin' Jackie.

 

I don't see anyone throwing a parade for Beni. In fact, several of us are hoping we can trade him for pitching.

 

Beni is under contract. JBJ is not.

 

Beni was paid after putting up some pretty impressive numbers by age 23. Better offensive numbers than JBJ has had over his last 3 years (.806 OPS over his first 3 seasons).

 

Just because we paid Beni at age 23 what he's getting does not matter with the 30 year old FA-to-be JBJ.

 

Your durability point is a good one. It does add to JBJ's value.

 

I'm not "denigrating eye balls." I have mentioned several time that I have seen decline with my own eyes. A lost step. Maybe slower initial breaks. I noticed the decline before I even looked at the numbers, and the numbers supported my observations.

 

You have seen it differently. That's fine. I'm not arguing JBJ is a bad fielder or even an average one. I pout him about 9-12 in the top 30 CF'er in MLB on D. He's maybe 16-20 on offense. He's durable. He's worth about $4-6M a year x 2. Some say $6-8M- some even more. We are not that far apart to be going on and one over this.

 

Again, I've been JBJ's biggest fan. I will always have fond memories of his play. His 3HRs and 10 RBI in just 28 ABs in the 2018 ALCS+WS were unforgettable!

 

I'm fine with bringing him back. I'm just not for spending as much as some here are suggesting on the CF position. I'd prefer to put more resources towards pitching and better defense- Yes, better than even JBJ.

[mvp 78]

I think they should keep Beni and hope he turns it around. His trade value is too low right now.

[moonslav59]

I think they should keep Beni and hope he turns it around. His trade value is too low right now.

 

I'm not for handing him away. If his stock has fallen too low, I'm with you. Give him a shot to right the ship.

[notin]

I think they should keep Beni and hope he turns it around. His trade value is too low right now.

 

I’d actually be surprised if Benintendi was traded, despite my repeated predictions that it happens...

[moonslav59]

I think they should keep Beni and hope he turns it around. His trade value is too low right now.

 

Would you trade him for Boyd or the other guy notin suggested?

[Kimmi]

I think they should keep Beni and hope he turns it around. His trade value is too low right now.

 

I think they should keep Beni and re-sign JBJ.

[oldtimer]

I think they should keep Beni and re-sign JBJ.

 

How long a leash would you give Beni. You keep him and trade Munoz and after 2 months he isn't hitting .225, what then?

[Kimmi]

How long a leash would you give Beni. You keep him and trade Munoz and after 2 months he isn't hitting .225, what then?

 

The answer to how long a leash you give a player is always a tough one to know the answer to. There are many cases where patience with a player has paid off, and there are many cases where a team has given up on a player and that player takes off with another team. So I don't know the answer to that question, but I do tend to be more patient with slumping players than most.

 

At the same time, I would most definitely have a strong 4th outfielder and strong OF depth to replace Beni if need be. But that should always be the case because you never know when injury will hit. Always have a plan B.