A Realistic View at 2020: Part II

[oldtimer]

And Eovadi probably would have also fallen into that same category, but he had a whole different set of issues that made his contract foolish....

 

Lets hope we don't get foolish with the next FA front line starter. It will be competitive for 2021 but the COVID season may depress contracts somewhat.

[moonslav59]

And Eovadi probably would have also fallen into that same category, but he had a whole different set of issues that made his contract foolish....

 

It was a stab in the dark based on his playoff heroics- something that almost always ends up being "foolish."

[notin]

Lets hope we don't get foolish with the next FA front line starter. It will be competitive for 2021 but the COVID season may depress contracts somewhat.

 

My philosophy is typically - sign relievers and trade for starters, although that latter part is not always possible.

 

Good SPs do usually demand the type of contracts that become a big problem, whereas closers often take shorter contracts. I'm ok overpaying a closer of it's only for 3-4 years. Has any free agent closer ever signed a long term deal?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

My philosophy is typically - sign relievers and trade for starters, although that latter part is not always possible.

 

Good SPs do usually demand the type of contracts that become a big problem, whereas closers often take shorter contracts. I'm ok overpaying a closer of it's only for 3-4 years. Has any free agent closer ever signed a long term deal?

 

Papelbon? I think he got 5... but any diehard Sox fan who watched his last few years in Boston (despite the stats) knew it was smart for the Fenway FO to let him walk at that point. Same with Kimbrel; both were 30, and after some spectacular seasons were showing some cracks in their mettle.

 

Maybe the Sox learned from their very first free agent signing in history: Bill "Soup" Campbell, who in the first of his five-year contract was elite, overused, burned out and never the same again.

[mvp 78]

I'm fine with spending large. I'm just saying that winning seems a bit more satisfying when you are not blowing everyone away in spending.

 

Nah.

[moonslav59]

Nah.

 

Did you ever attack Yankee fans with the "You bought the rings" argument?

[Bellhorn04]

It was a stab in the dark based on his playoff heroics- something that almost always ends up being "foolish."

 

That's partially but not completely true.

 

Eovaldi's 2018 regular season fWAR was 2.2, which had a dollar value of $17.5 million.

 

His injury history was obviously a big concern, but he had proven to be a good pitcher when healthy. He also had a 3.3 fWAR in 2014 and a 3.2 fWAR in 2015.

[mvp 78]

Did you ever attack Yankee fans with the "You bought the rings" argument?

 

No, because the Sox payroll was pretty damn high.

 

And I'd only mention the Giambi/Clemens/Pettite substance abuse if some dumb Yankees fan was whining about Ortiz.

[mvp 78]

The Tom Werner "Evil Empire" s*** was embarrassing.

[Nick]

It was a stab in the dark based on his playoff heroics- something that almost always ends up being "foolish."

 

It was a good signing.....only for $17M....He was our what? #3 or #4....remember two years ago, we thought and I'm pretty you did too, that we had one of best starting rotation in the majors. No one knew it would fall apart during the season.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It was a good signing.....only for $17M....He was our what? #3 or #4....remember two years ago, we thought and I'm pretty you did too, that we had one of best starting rotation in the majors. No one knew it would fall apart during the season.

 

I was all in on Eovaldi, who looked like he'd matured as a pitcher with the stuff of a Cy Young contender. People who insist he was only rewarded for pitching all night in the loss to LA must forget how he totally dominated New York and Houston, too. He was also sought-after by other clubs that offseason, and still throws 100 mph.

 

There are actual cases of TJS where guys come back better and stay healthy. Eovaldi isn't one yet, and neither is Chris Sale. One good example is John Smoltz, who enjoyed six great years after surgery... and before coming to Boston.

[notin]

I was all in on Eovaldi, who looked like he'd matured as a pitcher with the stuff of a Cy Young contender. People who insist he was only rewarded for pitching all night in the loss to LA must forget how he totally dominated New York and Houston, too. He was also sought-after by other clubs that offseason, and still throws 100 mph.

 

There are actual cases of TJS where guys come back better and stay healthy. Eovaldi isn't one yet, and neither is Chris Sale. One good example is John Smoltz, who enjoyed six great years after surgery... and before coming to Boston.

 

With Eovaldi, the question was never really talent. Not many pitchers can throw as hard as he does as many times as he does. But that is also probably the cause of the real concern...

[moonslav59]

I was all in on Eovaldi, who looked like he'd matured as a pitcher with the stuff of a Cy Young contender. People who insist he was only rewarded for pitching all night in the loss to LA must forget how he totally dominated New York and Houston, too. He was also sought-after by other clubs that offseason, and still throws 100 mph.

 

There are actual cases of TJS where guys come back better and stay healthy. Eovaldi isn't one yet, and neither is Chris Sale. One good example is John Smoltz, who enjoyed six great years after surgery... and before coming to Boston.

 

The clubhouse boost he provided, especially during the playoffs was huge, and I think that was part of the reason the stretched to bring him back.

 

After Eovaldi basically sacrificed himself for the team, Sale and Price stepped up and asked if they could do the same in the following game. That had enormous value, but I'm not sure that value is transferable to a 3 year deal.

 

I was okay with the signing. I thought it was slightly too high on money and should have been 2 years not 3, due to his injury history.

[moonslav59]

No, because the Sox payroll was pretty damn high.

 

And I'd only mention the Giambi/Clemens/Pettite substance abuse if some dumb Yankees fan was whining about Ortiz.

 

The Yankees blew the Sox and other teams out of the water the years they won and tried to win. Yes, the Sox spent a lot, but it wasn't even close. When we won in 2004 and 2007 and 2013, we were not the top spenders.

 

The money difference may not seem that much way back when but $88M compared to $71M is 24% more (like 1999). Whereas the Sox in 2018 were $27M more than the second team, which is just 13% more.

 

Year NYY BOS

'00 92M 78M

'01 110M 109M

'02 125 108

'03 153 100 (6th)

'04 183 125 (30% more)

'05 206 121 (almost double!)

'06 194 120

'07 190 143 (33% more)

'08 209 134 (4th)

'09 201 123 (4th)

 

'13 229 151 (52% more!)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[mvp 78]

Sox haven't been lower than 4th in total payroll since 2003. Sox claiming to be the Sisters of the Poor is just not legit. Yes, the Yankees spent more (most years). However, the Sox had a payroll that was better than 90-95% of other teams in that timeframe. If Henry wanted to, he could have matched the amount the Yankees spent.

 

SOX SPENT 40% MORE THAN THE YANKEES IN 2018.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The clubhouse boost he provided, especially during the playoffs was huge, and I think that was part of the reason the stretched to bring him back.

 

After Eovaldi basically sacrificed himself for the team, Sale and Price stepped up and asked if they could do the same in the following game. That had enormous value, but I'm not sure that value is transferable to a 3 year deal.

 

I was okay with the signing. I thought it was slightly too high on money and should have been 2 years not 3, due to his injury history.

 

The Eovaldi signing made sense for reasons we both provided: he was/is a stand-up guy, well-respected and well-liked by his team, and he was/is good. Those are the type of players worth investing in. He certainly looked to be healed.

 

Sale was actually a bigger risk at the time, even with his Hall of Fame resume, especially considering length of contract.

[moonslav59]

Sox haven't been lower than 4th in total payroll since 2003. Sox claiming to be the Sisters of the Poor is just not legit. Yes, the Yankees spent more (most years). However, the Sox had a payroll that was better than 90-95% of other teams in that timeframe. If Henry wanted to, he could have matched the amount the Yankees spent.

 

SOX SPENT 40% MORE THAN THE YANKEES IN 2018.

 

Yes, my point was that in 2018, we became the Yankees of 1998-2015ish.

 

Before that they blew us away, despite the fact that we outspend the other 90-95% of the teams.

[mvp 78]

Yes, my point was that in 2018, we became the Yankees of 1998-2015ish.

 

Before that they blew us away, despite the fact that we outspend the other 90-95% of the teams.

 

I disagree with the "blew the Sox away" stuff.

[notin]

The Eovaldi signing made sense for reasons we both provided: he was/is a stand-up guy, well-respected and well-liked by his team, and he was/is good. Those are the type of players worth investing in. He certainly looked to be healed.

 

Sale was actually a bigger risk at the time, even with his Hall of Fame resume, especially considering length of contract.

 

Sale’s contract was actually only one year longer, right?

[dgalehouse]

I never understood the criticism of Steinbrenner for " buying championships " ). He was not the richest owner in MLB by any means. And the value of the Yankees grew tremendously along with his spending . The criticism should be directed at the owners who refuse to spend. They should sell the team to someone who cares .

[moonslav59]

I disagree with the "blew the Sox away" stuff.

 

These years are, to me...

Year NYY BOS

'03 153 100 (53%)

'04 183 125 (30% more)

'05 206 121 (70% more)

'06 194 120 (62% more

'07 190 143 (33% more)

'08 209 134 (56% more)

'09 201 123 (63% more)

 

'13 229 151 (52% more!)

[moonslav59]

I never understood the criticism of Steinbrenner for " buying championships " ). He was not the richest owner in MLB by any means. And the value of the Yankees grew tremendously along with his spending . The criticism should be directed at the owners who refuse to spend. They should sell the team to someone who cares .

 

Agreed, and the league could force teams to spend more on player budgets or face steep penalties (or sell).

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Sale’s contract was actually only one year longer, right?

 

According to bbref, Eovaldi's is four years (two more now) but Sale's contract has a vesting option for a 6th year (four more now). Then, of course, when discussing investments, there are the dollar amounts...

 

I'm one of those irresponsible fans who wonder if Sale's future may be best as a closer. I know, I hear everyone who says he's making too much money. But what exactly is the value of a potential automatic lockdown closer for a team in sustained contention? We know the job isn't for everyone... or even many ones... and relief innings put less mileage on an arm than quality starts.

 

Here's an extreme comparison: who would you rather have on a team making a title run: Dennis Eckersly the All-Star starter or Eck the Hall of Fame closer? Peak Sale or peak Eck?

[Bellhorn04]

According to bbref, Eovaldi's is four years (two more now) but Sale's contract has a vesting option for a 6th year (four more now). Then, of course, when discussing investments, there are the dollar amounts...

 

I'm one of those irresponsible fans who wonder if Sale's future may be best as a closer. I know, I hear everyone who says he's making too much money. But what exactly is the value of a potential automatic lockdown closer for a team in sustained contention? We know the job isn't for everyone... or even many ones... and relief innings put less mileage on an arm than quality starts.

 

Here's an extreme comparison: who would you rather have on a team making a title run: Dennis Eckersly the All-Star starter or Eck the Hall of Fame closer? Peak Sale or peak Eck?

 

Peak Sale for me.

[moonslav59]

Peak Sale for me.

 

Plus, Peak Sale lasted longer, or at least a longer stretch of uninterrupted greatness, than Peak Eck.

 

Sale was top dog (or #2) for 6-7 straight years.

[notin]

According to bbref, Eovaldi's is four years (two more now) but Sale's contract has a vesting option for a 6th year (four more now). Then, of course, when discussing investments, there are the dollar amounts...

 

I'm one of those irresponsible fans who wonder if Sale's future may be best as a closer. I know, I hear everyone who says he's making too much money. But what exactly is the value of a potential automatic lockdown closer for a team in sustained contention? We know the job isn't for everyone... or even many ones... and relief innings put less mileage on an arm than quality starts.

 

Here's an extreme comparison: who would you rather have on a team making a title run: Dennis Eckersly the All-Star starter or Eck the Hall of Fame closer? Peak Sale or peak Eck?

 

Per Fangraphs, Eckersley was more valuable as a starter, earning 41 of his 61 fWAR in that role.

 

The thing about closers is, they’re useless if you’re trailing. Not really true for a good SP...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Per Fangraphs, Eckersley was more valuable as a starter, earning 41 of his 61 fWAR in that role.

 

The thing about closers is, they’re useless if you’re trailing. Not really true for a good SP...

 

All true. Starters earn way more WAR than relievers because they face and retire way more batters.

 

I'm just skeptical about Sale's durability as he ages, so wonder if he can best remain elite in one-inning stints vs. 5 or 6 frames per outing. It's doubtful he changes his delivery, and improbable he changes his body... so even a new elbow can become imperiled.

[Bellhorn04]

All true. Starters earn way more WAR than relievers because they face and retire way more batters.

 

I'm just skeptical about Sale's durability as he ages, so wonder if he can best remain elite in one-inning stints vs. 5 or 6 frames per outing. It's doubtful he changes his delivery, and improbable he changes his body... so even a new elbow can become imperiled.

 

Moving him to closer should only be a last resort.

[Larry Cook]

Just think, if we had promoted more of the youngsters, a bit sooner, we might have more feel good stories, like Dalbec, in this acid bath of a season!

[moonslav59]

Just think, if we had promoted more of the youngsters, a bit sooner, we might have more feel good stories, like Dalbec, in this acid bath of a season!

 

It looks like we called him up precisely at the right time.