A Realistic View at 2020: Part II

[harmony]

It looks like we called him up precisely at the right time.

Who was the last player to hit six home runs in his first 10 MLB games?

[notin]

Who was the last player to hit six home runs in his first 10 MLB games?

 

As you are asking, I'm going to go with Kyle Lewis...

[moonslav59]

Who was the last player to hit six home runs in his first 10 MLB games?

 

Aristides Aquino

[harmony]

As you are asking, I'm going to go with Kyle Lewis...

Bingo. September 10-20 of last year:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=lewisky01&t=b&year=2019

 

FWIW 6-foot-4, righthand-hitting Bobby Dalbec is two weeks older than 6-foot-4, righthand-hitting Kyle Lewis.

[harmony]

Aristides Aquino

Aristides Aquino hit seven home runs in his first 10 MLB games spanning the 2018 and 2019 seasons:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=aquinar01&t=b&year=2019

[illinoisredsox]

I’m pretty sure Dalbec tied the club record for consecutive games with a home run. I looked at a list of players who have homered in 6 or more straight and I didn’t see any Red Sox players on it.

 

If he did, anyone know who else may hit one in 5 straight? I don’t recall anyone in my time as a fan (and I’m in my 54th season) but that doesn’t mean much.

[harmony]

Turning to veterans, who has more value: Boston's J.D. Martinez or Seattle's Kyle Seager?

 

According to Baseball Trade Values, Martinez has a median trade value of a negative $8.6 million and Seager a median trade value of a negative $13.5 million:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/

 

Martinez, who is two-and-a-half months older than Seager, is owed $19.375 million each in 2021 and 2022. He may opt out after this season.

 

Seager is owed $18 million in 2021 with a buyout of up to $3 million of a 2022 option of $15 million to $20 million (depending on incentives).

 

In 185 games* since the start of the 2019 season, Martinez has posted 2.7 fWAR, valued at $21.6 million. In 149 games since the start of the 2019 season, Seager has posted 4.2 fWAR, valued at $33.4 million.

 

Martinez posted a higher fWAR in 2019 with 3.2, valued at $25.7 million, in 146 games while Seager posted 2.9 fWAR, valued at $23.5 million, in only 106 games.

 

In 1,107 career games*, Martinez has posted 23.6 fWAR, valued at $187.8 million. In 1,304 career games, Seager has posted 32.0 fWAR, valued at $245.2 million.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jd-martinez/6184/stats?position=OF

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kyle-seager/9785/stats?position=3B

 

* not counting Thursday's 0-for-4, three-strikeout performance

Edited September 11, 2020 by harmony

[Kimmi]

Again, why? Just bec. it's difficult to win with a smaller payroll, why is that better from a fan's point of view? (Note that we're ttalking about self-imposed frugality, not necessary frugality, as say Pittsburg faces). Surely you wouldn't be in favor of any other kind of deliberate handicapping--e.g., how about playing with a 20-man roster, or fielding a team with no one over 170 pounds. That too would give the opponent an advantage and it would be 'satisfying' I suppose to beat them. But again, why?

 

For years, Red Sox fans have accused the Yankees of buying championships. Other fan bases, I'm sure, see the Red Sox as doing that. It's an unfair advantage that some teams have, and I would prefer to win without having to use that advantage.

 

IMO, any GM who has the money could go out and throw the most money at a free agent. I could do that. I get more satisfaction out of moves that don't require the team having the most money. You don't have to agree with that.

[notin]

For years, Red Sox fans have accused the Yankees of buying championships. Other fan bases, I'm sure, see the Red Sox as doing that. It's an unfair advantage that some teams have, and I would prefer to win without having to use that advantage.

 

IMO, any GM who has the money could go out and throw the most money at a free agent. I could do that. I get more satisfaction out of moves that don't require the team having the most money. You don't have to agree with that.

 

While I can certainly understand the point about preferring to see the Sox win when it’s more dependent on the baseball acumen of the front office as opposed to the wallet of the owner, we have reached a point (some time ago, actually) where if the Sox were NOT amongst the highest spending teams, it would be a statement to the fans that they were simply no longer worth it.

 

But it should never come to the point where the team with the third highest payroll in MLB is nightly trotting our starting pitchers with the pedigree of the current Sox staff....

[oldtimer]

Turning to veterans, who has more value: Boston's J.D. Martinez or Seattle's Kyle Seager?

 

According to Baseball Trade Values, Martinez has a median trade value of a negative $8.6 million and Seager a median trade value of a negative $13.5 million:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/

 

Martinez, who is two-and-a-half months older than Seager, is owed $19.375 million each in 2021 and 2022. He may opt out after this season.

 

Seager is owed $18 million in 2021 with a buyout of up to $3 million of a 2022 option of $15 million to $20 million (depending on incentives).

 

In 185 games* since the start of the 2019 season, Martinez has posted 2.7 fWAR, valued at $21.6 million. In 149 games since the start of the 2019 season, Seager has posted 4.2 fWAR, valued at $33.4 million.

 

Martinez posted a higher fWAR in 2019 with 3.2, valued at $25.7 million, in 146 games* while Seager posted 2.9 fWAR, valued at $23.5 million, in only 106 games.

 

In 1,107 career games*, Martinez has posted 23.6 fWAR, valued at $187.8 million. In 1,304 career games, Seager has posted 32.0 fWAR, valued at $245.2 million.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jd-martinez/6184/stats?position=OF

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kyle-seager/9785/stats?position=3B

 

* not counting Thursday's 0-for-4, three-strikeout performance

 

All well and good, but do past performances reflect present or future form? I have been known to place bets on horses, and that is one of the key questions in making a selection. Generally horses reach their peak at around 4 or 5 years old. They typically go through form cycles, with each cycle after their peak with a lower maximum capability. The capability of an aging player may well follow the same trajectory so past performances indicate for an aging player they will not be able to reach their best form and something less should be expected.

[Bellhorn04]

While I can certainly understand the point about preferring to see the Sox win when it’s more dependent on the baseball acumen of the front office as opposed to the wallet of the owner, we have reached a point (some time ago, actually) where if the Sox were NOT amongst the highest spending teams, it would be a statement to the fans that they were simply no longer worth it.

 

But it should never come to the point where the team with the third highest payroll in MLB is nightly trotting our starting pitchers with the pedigree of the current Sox staff....

 

You're right, but it was a perfect shitstorm that put us in this position.

[moonslav59]

While I can certainly understand the point about preferring to see the Sox win when it’s more dependent on the baseball acumen of the front office as opposed to the wallet of the owner, we have reached a point (some time ago, actually) where if the Sox were NOT amongst the highest spending teams, it would be a statement to the fans that they were simply no longer worth it.

 

But it should never come to the point where the team with the third highest payroll in MLB is nightly trotting our starting pitchers with the pedigree of the current Sox staff....

 

Good points, but I still feel the same as Kimmi on this issue.

[notin]

You're right, but it was a perfect shitstorm that put us in this position.

 

No.

 

It was a very predictable outcome that I have been talking about for 4 years. And I am no prophet...

[Nick]

I didn't realize service time will be 'pro-rated' to the benefit of players. Players will be given 2.78 days of playing credit for each day spent in mlb in 2020. I hate that for player such as Dalbec but I'm going to consider myself lucky not having to watch 162 games from this bunch. Not sure if there are enough pitchers in our system to complete a full season.

[Bellhorn04]

No.

 

It was a very predictable outcome that I have been talking about for 4 years. And I am no prophet...

 

So 4 years ago you predicted Chris Sale and E-Rod would miss the 2020 season? That would make you Edgar Freakin' Cayce.

[notin]

So 4 years ago you predicted Chris Sale and E-Rod would miss the 2020 season? That would make you Edgar Freakin' Cayce.

 

No. It's worse than I projected in that way. (If I did predict, I would have thought Sale never signs an extension here and tests the market.)

 

But the Sox not being able to afford Mookie and having no pitching coming up through the minors (or very little talent all around) was really why so many people were talking about the inevitable "cliff" that you lampooned them for in your own avatar until recently. When, you know, we fell off it...

[notin]

Bingo. September 10-20 of last year:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=lewisky01&t=b&year=2019

 

FWIW 6-foot-4, righthand-hitting Bobby Dalbec is two weeks older than 6-foot-4, righthand-hitting Kyle Lewis.

 

But then Lewis did not do it in his first 9 hits...

[jacksonianmarch]

No. It's worse than I projected in that way. (If I did predict, I would have thought Sale never signs an extension here and tests the market.)

 

But the Sox not being able to afford Mookie and having no pitching coming up through the minors (or very little talent all around) was really why so many people were talking about the inevitable "cliff" that you lampooned them for in your own avatar until recently. When, you know, we fell off it...

 

You can spend, win and still stay on top. Ask the Dodgers. The key is to emphasize and not completely tear apart your farm system. Once DD spent the sox into a bind and traded off any possible cheap reinforcements, it was pretty clear what was coming

[harmony]

All well and good, but do past performances reflect present or future form? I have been known to place bets on horses, and that is one of the key questions in making a selection. Generally horses reach their peak at around 4 or 5 years old. They typically go through form cycles, with each cycle after their peak with a lower maximum capability. The capability of an aging player may well follow the same trajectory so past performances indicate for an aging player they will not be able to reach their best form and something less should be expected.

The same can be said of valuation of any player. Jose Peraza could be worth more than Alex Verdugo going forward.

 

Or not.

 

Provided for J.D. Martinez and Kyle Seager were fWAR since the start of the 2019 season, fWAR for 2019 alone and career fWAR. Omitted were the fWAR for the near-meaningless small sample size of the 2020 season.

[Bellhorn04]

No. It's worse than I projected in that way. (If I did predict, I would have thought Sale never signs an extension here and tests the market.)

 

But the Sox not being able to afford Mookie and having no pitching coming up through the minors (or very little talent all around) was really why so many people were talking about the inevitable "cliff" that you lampooned them for in your own avatar until recently. When, you know, we fell off it...

 

The Sox could absolutely afford Mookie. They just didn't want to pay him $30 million a year till he's 40.

 

And I knew the cliff was a real possibility. My avatar was just trying to be funny about it.

[mvp 78]

So 4 years ago you predicted Chris Sale and E-Rod would miss the 2020 season? That would make you Edgar Freakin' Cayce.

 

^^^

[mvp 78]

The same can be said of valuation of any player. Jose Peraza could be worth more than Alex Verdugo going forward.

 

Or not.

 

Provided for J.D. Martinez and Kyle Seager were fWAR since the start of the 2019 season, fWAR for 2019 alone and career fWAR. Omitted were the fWAR for the near-meaningless small sample size of the 2020 season.

 

If Verdugo retired today, he'd be worth more than the rest of Peraza's career.

[harmony]

If Verdugo retired today, he'd be worth more than the rest of Peraza's career.

And if Kyle Seager retired today he likely would have a higher fWAR than the entire career of J.D. Martinez.

[mvp 78]

And if Kyle Seager retired today he likely would have a higher fWAR than the entire career of J.D. Martinez.

 

or NOT!!!!

[notin]

And if Kyle Seager retired today he likely would have a higher fWAR than the entire career of J.D. Martinez.

 

The bulk of which came prior to 2016...

[Nick]

You can spend, win and still stay on top. Ask the Dodgers. The key is to emphasize and not completely tear apart your farm system. Once DD spent the sox into a bind and traded off any possible cheap reinforcements, it was pretty clear what was coming

 

Can you name couple of players that would have helped us last year or this year?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Can you name couple of players that would have helped us last year or this year?

 

Scherzer, deGrom, Bieber and Sixto Sanchez.

[oldtimer]

The same can be said of valuation of any player. Jose Peraza could be worth more than Alex Verdugo going forward.

 

Or not.

 

Provided for J.D. Martinez and Kyle Seager were fWAR since the start of the 2019 season, fWAR for 2019 alone and career fWAR. Omitted were the fWAR for the near-meaningless small sample size of the 2020 season.

 

Maybe if the 2020 results don't fit the preferred narrative, they are deemed meaningless by some. Most players become less capable as they age. There have been a few exceptions. My view is that the question about JDM's performance is legitimate, even though the size of the 2020 sample is small. fWAR is a historical record and should be looked at in that way.

[moonslav59]

So, to change subjects, if you look at the Price trade as a push- not needed as part of the Betts trade, we basically end up paying him $169M/4.

 

That's over $42M a year for 4 years.

[Bellhorn04]

So, to change subjects, if you look at the Price trade as a push- not needed as part of the Betts trade, we basically end up paying him $169M/4.

 

That's over $42M a year for 4 years.

 

I think it's 156 million?

 

2016 31

2017 31

2018 31

2019 31

2020 0

2021 16

2022 16