A Realistic View at 2020: Part II

[a700hitter]

More suck than success? That's highly debatable.

 

Sure, count their first years of existence against them, and 10 years of sucking out of the gate was worse than it should have been (no season with over 70 wins), but since 2007 they have had winning seasons in 11of 13 years with only 2016 being really bad.

 

12 losing seasons

11 winning seasons

 

Yes, technically more sucking than success, but they only started as an expansion team in 1998. If you just discard their first 2 years, the script is flipped.

 

2008-2020 Wins

1138 Yanks

1130 Dodgers

1096 Cardinals

1078 Red Sox

1071 Rays

1038 Angels

1028 Braves

1027 Guardians

1025 Rangers

1024 Cubs

 

7 less wins at a fraction of the budget gives some of us hope that Bloom can do better with more money.

Take out the Ben years of 3 last place finishes and it looks better. And he managed to do that with one of the highest payrolls in baseball. That was not DD's fault. That was all on Ben.

[Bellhorn04]

It could be more about wanting to reset in 2020 and dumping half of Price's deal, so we'd be better situated for 2021 and beyond- maybe even to re-sign Betts, despite many here thinking that was all but impossible.

 

And I think that would have been a disastrously short-sighted approach. And trading him to the Dodgers with thoughts of re-signing him would have been especially foolish.

[moonslav59]

I doubt the Dodgers would have much interest in Chavis.

 

True, but maybe last year his stock was higher. Someone like Duran or Barnes might have been more wanted.

[Bellhorn04]

That's a huge "if" and the main reason I would not sign him at $16M x 2.

 

Of course, there's a significant chance he proves me wrong.

 

Knowing what you know, now, if you were the Sox GM and had $70M to spend this winter, would you use $16M on Price on a 2 year deal?

 

 

Probably not, but it depends on the alternatives, too.

[moonslav59]

Friedman made it evident he was not parting with top tier pitching prospects, which was one of the reasons Minnesota got involved at all.

 

To me it looks like Bloom isn’t taking chances with “high risk” younger pitchers with health concerns, which is why he passed on Graterol. Now the Dodgers were in a better position to take on that risk, and it’s been working out for them. Hey, another advantage of having a good farm; you don’t have to be as careful on younger players...

 

"Top tier" might not have included Gonsolin, but probably it did. I'm not sure the Dodgers would have wanted a player I suggested we "throw in" to change the return from Downs to Gonsolin. Maybe even DHern would not have been enough.

[moonslav59]

Take out the Ben years of 3 last place finishes and it looks better. And he managed to do that with one of the highest payrolls in baseball. That was not DD's fault. That was all on Ben.

 

Not sure what that has to do with TB's success over the last 13 seasons.

 

As for Ben, he got one ring-same as DD, but he left a way better foundation for the next guy than DD did, so maybe that helps outweigh those 3 sucky years a little bit, anyways.

[dgalehouse]

It's not just wishful thinking. The Rays have been very successful these last few years on a tiny budget. That's a fact.

 

Bloom was with the Rays for fifteen years . In that time they won zero world championships and one A.L. pennant . And that was twelve years ago when Chaim was still an underling . Nobody cares about the team . Nobody goes to their games . They refuse to spend money, but sop up the revenue sharing dough like a hungry o cello sponge . There are not the franchise to emulate . If Bloom was brought in because they like his baseball acumen, we will see have to hope for the best . But if he was brought in to cut payroll and use the Tampa Bay system to rebuild the Red Sox , it is a very bad idea.

[moonslav59]

And I think that would have been a disastrously short-sighted approach. And trading him to the Dodgers with thoughts of re-signing him would have been especially foolish.

 

No necessarily planning on re-signing Betts, specifically, but knowing it was an option or knowing we could sign a player or players equal to what we would have needed to sign Betts plus the $16M saved from Price.

 

We don't know just how much that Price savings was, in terms of making the Betts deal or not. Many here feel like it was dumb trading Price and paying so much of his deal, but to me, I think it was a plus. I don't think the Dodgers were insisting on including Price. He was "forced" on them.

 

I'm not down-playing your point about the Sox not wanting to re-sign Betts at what the expected amount would be. Certainly, that could have been the major reason for dealing him away, but the need to reset in 2021 was a huge priority, too. The wish to clear budget space (via Price) for 2021 and 2022 was also a significant factor, too as well as rebuilding a youthful core with Verdugo and Downs.

 

We all probably have varying ideas on what the importance assigned to different aspects of the trade are, and we'll likely never know what the levels of importance were to the Sox brass, but I do think it's not unrealistic to think the idea of not being able to or wanting to re-sign Betts might not have been over 50% of the reason. It might have been the leading reason but not the deciding factor, by itself.

 

Allow me to speculate:

 

30% Not thinking we would ever re-sign Betts

25% Needing to reset in 2020 (hard to do with Betts AND Price on the ledger)

25% Wanting to rebuild a youthful core with Verdugo and Downs

15% Wanting to dump half of Price's 2021-2022 salaries at ages 35-37

5% Other minor factors

 

(No way am I pretending to know how Bloom & Co. viewed these aspects, but it it unreasonable to thing the first line was under 50% of the total reason?)

[a700hitter]

Not sure what that has to do with TB's success over the last 13 seasons.

 

As for Ben, he got one ring-same as DD, but he left a way better foundation for the next guy than DD did, so maybe that helps outweigh those 3 sucky years a little bit, anyways.

You were comparing the Red Sox record versus Tampa's record since 2008. I though that comparison is skewed since that 12 year period included an unprecedented 3 last place finishes by the Red Sox.

[moonslav59]

Probably not, but it depends on the alternatives, too.

 

In my opinion, there would be no scenario where I'd choose to sign Price, this winter, at $32M/2. Even as a "place holder" or "bridge" to 2023, it would make little sense.

 

Trading him had to be viewed as a net plus by Bloom & Co. And, I think the Dodgers would have preferred not having to take him.

 

I wonder what the talk was like had he not been included. Betts straight up for Verdugo, Downs & Stripling or Gonsolin or Graterol/Maeda)?

[dgalehouse]

You were comparing the Red Sox record versus Tampa's record since 2008. I though that comparison is skewed since that 12 year period included an unprecedented 3 last place finishes by the Red Sox.

 

Those were the " golden years " of Ben Cherington. Looks like we are currently in another one of those .

[moonslav59]

You were comparing the Red Sox record versus Tampa's record since 2008. I though that comparison is skewed since that 12 year period included an unprecedented 3 last place finishes by the Red Sox.

 

I'm not sure why those 3 years need to be mentioned as "skewing" anything. Those 3 years helped lead DD to great success and were part of determining how sucky both teams were vs how successful both teams have been since 2008.

 

Of course, there are excuses for why the Sox sucked for 3 years and the Rays for 2 since 2008, but in terms of looking at both teams, minus rings won, which of course is a huge measure of success, both teams look pretty even since 2008, in terms of regular season success vs sucking.

[moonslav59]

Those were the " golden years " of Ben Cherington. Looks like we are currently in another one of those .

 

You mean the "golden" shower DD left Bloom?

 

At least Ben had a nice team on paper, that many felt should have competed in at least 3 of those 4 years.

 

Having Valentine thrusted on him for one year counts for something, too.

 

If Bloom's years as our GM help set the stage for a ring 2 years after he's replaced, I'd be fine with that, too.

[a700hitter]

I'm not sure why those 3 years need to be mentioned as "skewing" anything. Those 3 years helped lead DD to great success and were part of determining how sucky both teams were vs how successful both teams have been since 2008.

 

Of course, there are excuses for why the Sox sucked for 3 years and the Rays for 2 since 2008, but in terms of looking at both teams, minus rings won, which of course is a huge measure of success, both teams look pretty even since 2008, in terms of regular season success vs sucking.

And the 4 years of DD were wildly successful. Take those out and Tampa is better since 2008.

[Bellhorn04]

Bloom was with the Rays for fifteen years . In that time they won zero world championships and one A.L. pennant . And that was twelve years ago when Chaim was still an underling . Nobody cares about the team . Nobody goes to their games . They refuse to spend money, but sop up the revenue sharing dough like a hungry o cello sponge . There are not the franchise to emulate . If Bloom was brought in because they like his baseball acumen, we will see have to hope for the best . But if he was brought in to cut payroll and use the Tampa Bay system to rebuild the Red Sox , it is a very bad idea.

 

There's no chance we're going to shift to a Rays-level payroll. Zero.

 

It surprises me that anyone thinks Henry would actually go in that direction. He has spent on the team from Day One. He knows who his customers are.

[notin]

Bloom was with the Rays for fifteen years . In that time they won zero world championships and one A.L. pennant . And that was twelve years ago when Chaim was still an underling . Nobody cares about the team . Nobody goes to their games . They refuse to spend money, but sop up the revenue sharing dough like a hungry o cello sponge . There are not the franchise to emulate . If Bloom was brought in because they like his baseball acumen, we will see have to hope for the best . But if he was brought in to cut payroll and use the Tampa Bay system to rebuild the Red Sox , it is a very bad idea.

 

That the Rays “refuse to spend money” is a big difference. I would think you’ve seen Henry spend money by now.

 

The Rays being competitive in their crappy isolated ballpark in a region of the country dominated by Yankee fans is a nice story, but no one thinks Henry hires Bloom to emulate that. More likely, Henry realized that succeeding in that culture requires a certain degree of baseball acumen and he wants to someone with that pedigree to bring that to Boston...

[moonslav59]

There's no chance we're going to shift to a Rays-level payroll. Zero.

 

It surprises me that anyone thinks Henry would actually go in that direction. He has spent on the team from Day One. He knows who his customers are.

 

I'm not sure anyone has said they think we will continue reduced spending beyond this reset year. Plus, it's not like we still aren't spending a lot.

 

Even our projected 2021 of $70M below the budget line, with no additions, would still be spending more than many teams and way more than the Rays have spent.

[Larry Cook]

The trick for hang’em Chaim is to get us somewhat competitive next year while building a sustainable minor league system that can allow us to be playoff worthy every year. Take an annually competitive team and add an occasional top tier free agent signing and suddenly we have sustainable formula to be world series threats year after year,

[notin]

There's no chance we're going to shift to a Rays-level payroll. Zero.

 

It surprises me that anyone thinks Henry would actually go in that direction. He has spent on the team from Day One. He knows who his customers are.

 

Heck we’re still spending this year. While we have small market names and small market results, this team has a non-pro-rated payroll north of $180 million....

[moonslav59]

The trick for hang’em Chaim is to get us somewhat competitive next year while building a sustainable minor league system that can allow us to be playoff worthy every year. Take an annually competitive team and add an occasional top tier free agent signing and suddenly we have sustainable formula to be world series threats year after year,

 

He's already started rebuilding the farm, despite our not jumping in the team farm rankings.

 

Let's see what we get for those PTBNL, but adding Downs, Potts and a few others will help, and getting some team controlled years from Verdugo should help our longer term plans.

 

I'm curious to see Bloom's spending tendencies, this winter, when for the first time, he should have a spending budget 3-4 times as large as he has ever been given.

[moonslav59]

Heck we’re still spending this year. While we have small market names and small market results, this team has a non-pro-rated payroll north of $180 million....

 

...and that's with no Betts or Price payments!

[Larry Cook]

...and that's with no Betts or Price payments!

 

It would be very nice if Martinez opts out!

[Bellhorn04]

It would be very nice if Martinez opts out!

 

Chances are less than zero.

[notin]

...and that's with no Betts or Price payments!

 

B-R actually has the Sox in 4th in MLB with a payroll of $171mill.

 

But I believe just add up the salaries of the roster and take into account players on other teams the Sox are still paying (like Sandoval)

 

And of course none of the websites detailing Sox payroll include Castillo...

[harmony]

Ok for the 50,000,000 time, relief pitchers are not inconsistent. Rather, inconsistent pitchers are relievers. The mere act of putting a pitcher on the bullpen doesn’t lessen his ability.

 

If Graterol was talented enough to start but simply not durable, he could easily fill a much needed relief role very well, and MLB is increasingly becoming a bullpen game...

FWIW the Los Angeles Dodgers, with baseball's best record, are sending righthander Brusdar Graterol to the mound tonight against the Houston Astros for first MLB start:

 

[Bellhorn04]

FWIW the Los Angeles Dodgers, with baseball's best record, are sending righthander Brusdar Graterol to the mound tonight against the Houston Astros for first MLB start:

 

 

Must be a bullpen game though.

[moonslav59]

B-R actually has the Sox in 4th in MLB with a payroll of $171mill.

 

But I believe just add up the salaries of the roster and take into account players on other teams the Sox are still paying (like Sandoval)

 

And of course none of the websites detailing Sox payroll include Castillo...

 

Cots does...

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WWRsQNsGZkWuJZwlY8--xVBXMJGjh230D45KiHTHuvY/edit#gid=1520401900

[moonslav59]

Houck called up.

[notin]

Houck called up.

 

Season saved!!

 

In all seriousness, a good move. Audition time!

[notin]

Must be a bullpen game though.

 

As much as I don’t like that we rejected that deal, I think I get why Bloom did it. He couldn’t trade Betts and get back a pitcher that he feared would spend half his career on the IL...