A Realistic View at 2020: Part II

[moonslav59]

Sox need to run with a lineup of:

 

Beni

Devers

Xander

JD

Puig

Dalbec

Chavis - 2b

Vaz

JBJ

 

Just let them swing for the fences every time and see if they can murder a truckload of balls this year.

 

I'm a big Dalbec fan, but I think he should start out as a platoon vs LHPs only. Moreland and Ockimey are better choices vs RHPs- the majority of PAs.

 

Here are the recent splits by our possible 2020 1Bmen:

 

OPS vs RHPs/LHPs

 

Dalbec (Bats R)

2019 .753/.950 AAA

2019 .794/.904 AA

2018 .868/.701 AA

2018 .970/.881 A+

 

Moreland

2019 .887/.598 MLB

2018 .780/.684 MLB

2017 .784/.684 MLB

 

Chavis (bats R)

2019 .774/.742 MLB (slumped 2nd half .649 overall)

2019 .850/1.786 (7 AB) AAA

2018 .917/.644 (33 AB total) AAA

2018 .880/.964 AA

 

Ockimey (Bats L)

2019 .898/.535 AAA

2018 .783/.460 AAA

2018 .968/.586 AA

 

On paper, it looks like Moreland or Ockimey vs RHPs and Dalbec vs LHP.

 

Chavis should not play 1B, unless in an emergency or after a PH situation.

 

If we get Puig, what happens when Verdugo comes back? Bench the $11M JBJ?

 

I'm not against getting Puig, but I'd prefer pitching upgrades.

 

[moonslav59]

Assuming everyone is healthy, I like these line-ups:

 

vs RHPs:

1. L Beni LF

2. R Bogaerts SS

3. L Verdugo RF

4. L Devers 3B

5. R Martinez DH

6. L Moreland 1B

7. R Chavis/Peraza 2B

8. L JBJ CF

9. R Vaz C

 

vs LHPs

1. L Beni

2. R Bogaerts

3. L Verdugo (has hit LHPs equally well)

4. R Martinez

5. L Devers

6. R Chavis 2B

7. R Dalbec 1B

8. R Vaz C

9. L JBJ CF

[Slasher9]

we learned last year that beni cannot handle leadoff.

[a700hitter]

we learned last year that beni cannot handle leadoff.

The offense was in neutral until Benintendi was moved out of the top of the order.

[moonslav59]

Here are the career L-R splits:

 

OPS vs RHPs/LHPs

Puig .845/.762 (note: reverse splits)

 

Sox

vs RHPs

.871 Devers (.996 in 2019)

.861 Martinez

.830 Benintendi

.789 Moreland

.787 Bogaerts (.950 in 2019)

.783 Verdugo

.774 Chavis (2019)

.757 Lin (129 PAs)

.750 JBJ

.665 Peraza (platoon)

.661 Vazquez (should get rest days vs RHPs only)

.648 Plawecki

 

vs LHPs

.861 Martinez

.845 Bogaerts (.910 in 2019)

.785 Verdugo

.771 Vazquez

.750 Devers (.744 in 2019)

.742 Chavis (Peraza vs LHPs at 2B)

.738 Peraza

.696 Benintendi (consider moving down in line-up vs LHPs)

.671 Moreland (should not start vs RHPs)

.669 JBJ (platoon?)

.599 Plawecki (should only start vs RHPs)

.502 Lin (32 PAs)

[mvp 78]

we learned last year that beni cannot handle leadoff.

 

New year, new Benny.

[moonslav59]

we learned last year that Beni cannot handle leadoff.

 

Not really true. Nothing is "learned" over small sample sizes. No doubt, it didn't work well in 2019, but here are Beni's career splits (note PAs: 200+ PAs):

.951 in 6 slot (99 PAs)

.832 in 4 slot (94)

.831 in 1 slot (332)

.794 in 2 slot (960)

.736 in 2 slot (204)

.708 in 5 slot (236)

[mvp 78]

I'm not against getting Puig, but I'd prefer pitching upgrades.

 

 

A lot of those left on the open market?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Assuming everyone is healthy, I like these line-ups:

 

vs RHPs:

1. L Beni LF

2. R Bogaerts SS

3. L Verdugo RF

4. L Devers 3B

5. R Martinez DH

6. L Moreland 1B

7. R Chavis/Peraza 2B

8. L JBJ CF

9. R Vaz C

 

vs LHPs

1. L Beni

2. R Bogaerts

3. L Verdugo (has hit LHPs equally well)

4. R Martinez

5. L Devers

6. R Chavis 2B

7. R Dalbec 1B

8. R Vaz C

9. L JBJ CF

 

Not bad, but we just have no idea yet how Verdugo -- and his back -- are going to respond to Boston and the AL East... because according to that media maven David Price, the opposite coasts contain such opposite atmospheres (laid-back LA vs. uptight, unlaid-front? Beantown). Ideally, Verdugo becomes both physically and mentally able to embrace the challenge and use Fenway to develop his potential into a gap-to-gap star hitter.

 

No one can ever totally replace Mookie or make fans forget him, but I'd love it if Alex could make me forget to regret trading Mookie Betts.

 

As for the batting order, I know there are stats that supposedly show the myths of hitting in specific spots, but if I'm the manager, I want to make sure my best hitter who can do the most damage always gets an at bat in the first inning... thus, I vote for Devers to hit second or third.

[a700hitter]

Not bad, but we just have no idea yet how Verdugo -- and his back -- are going to respond to Boston and the AL East... because according to that media maven David Price, the opposite coasts contain such opposite atmospheres (laid-back LA vs. uptight, unlaid-front? Beantown). Ideally, Verdugo becomes both physically and mentally able to embrace the challenge and use Fenway to develop his potential into a gap-to-gap star hitter.

 

No one can ever totally replace Mookie or make fans forget him, but I'd love it if Alex could make me forget to regret trading Mookie Betts.

 

As for the batting order, I know there are stats that supposedly show the myths of hitting in specific spots, but if I'm the manager, I want to make sure my best hitter who can do the most damage always gets an at bat in the first inning... thus, I vote for Devers to hit second or third.

Good news on Verdugo. Lots of progress. Verdugo has been on solid food for more than a week, and his bowel function has been normal. Over the last 2 days he has progressed from a wheel chair to a walker for 15 minutes three times a day. This is very encouraging.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Good news on Verdugo. Lots of progress. Verdugo has been on solid food for more than a week, and his bowel function has been normal. Over the last 2 days he has progressed from a wheel chair to a walker for 15 minutes three times a day. This is very encouraging.

 

Maybe Sale's docs can re-evaluate Alex after another 10 to 14 meals compared to six months ago. That transition from Pacific halibut to Atlantic flounder can be traumatic -- though I'm sure some poster will generalize all flatfish as mere "bottom-feeders". My grampa used to call them fluke.

[moonslav59]

A lot of those left on the open market?

 

Not really, but trading for one partial salary-dump type is an option.

[mvp 78]

Not really, but trading for one partial salary-dump type is an option.

 

I'm jonesing for some trade simulator content!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[harmony]

The Red Sox are scheduled to play April 9-12 in Seattle, where the Mariners today announced that the scheduled March home games will be moved to another location amid coronavirus concerns:

 

https://www.mlb.com/mariners/team/statement

 

This Oregon resident has tickets to the home opener March 26 (and had hoped to see my San Diego-based daughter in an athletic competition 90 miles north of Seattle on March 27-28).

 

I attended a baseball game Saturday at Stanford, which has moved most classes online for the foreseeable future. The Sunken Diamond was nearly empty after the university had limited attendance at all athletic events to one-third capacity to promote "social distancing." It was unsettling this morning to read that three TSA security workers at the San Jose airport have tested positive for the coronavirus after my wife and I passed through security there late Monday afternoon.

Edited March 11, 2020 by harmony

[Slasher9]

hope you both are OK harmony.

i think the mariners home opener is going to swap down to TX.

[moonslav59]

March Madness may be played in empty arenas.

[notin]

Assuming everyone is healthy, I like these line-ups:

 

vs RHPs:

1. L Beni LF

2. R Bogaerts SS

3. L Verdugo RF

4. L Devers 3B

5. R Martinez DH

6. L Moreland 1B

7. R Chavis/Peraza 2B

8. L JBJ CF

9. R Vaz C

 

vs LHPs

1. L Beni

2. R Bogaerts

3. L Verdugo (has hit LHPs equally well)

4. R Martinez

5. L Devers

6. R Chavis 2B

7. R Dalbec 1B

8. R Vaz C

9. L JBJ CF

 

Not sure about keeping Dalbec as a weak side platoon. He might be better off playing every day in AAA for now.

 

Maybe Lucroy can be the RHH 1b option...

[harmony]

The Red Sox are scheduled to play April 9-12 in Seattle, where the Mariners today announced that the scheduled March home games will be moved to another location amid coronavirus concerns:

 

https://www.mlb.com/mariners/team/statement

 

This Oregon resident has tickets to the home opener March 26 (and had hoped to see my San Diego-based daughter in an athletic competition 90 miles north of Seattle on March 27-28).

 

I attended a baseball game Saturday at Stanford, which has moved most classes online for the foreseeable future. The Sunken Diamond was nearly empty after the university had limited attendance at all athletic events to one-third capacity to promote "social distancing." It was unsettling this morning to read that three TSA security workers at the San Jose airport have tested positive for the coronavirus after my wife and I passed through security there late Monday afternoon.

[Kimmi]

But going strictly by projected WAR, isn't losing Betts a bigger hit to the W-L record?

 

This stuff gets confoozing.

 

It's not quite as simple as going strictly off WAR. That is why you should not use the players' aggregate projected WAR to determine how many wins the team will have, although admittedly, I've done that myself. It's a good starting point, but it's not as simple as that.

 

Mookie is definitely a better player than Price. I think our offense was and is good enough to overcome the loss of Mookie easier than our pitching staff can overcome the loss of Price. As of now, we have 3 starters. Having the bullpen try to cover the innings of two starters, plus the normal relief workload is going to leave the pen overworked and overexposed.

[moonslav59]

Not sure about keeping Dalbec as a weak side platoon. He might be better off playing every day in AAA for now.

 

Maybe Lucroy can be the RHH 1b option...

 

Dalbec can also play 3B, when Devers rests, and it should be just a matter of days before Moreland is on the IL.

 

I'm also thinking Ockimey might be a good option as a weak side platoon. He's killed lefties for 3 years in the minors.

[notin]

Dalbec can also play 3B, when Devers rests, and it should be just a matter of days before Moreland is on the IL.

 

I'm also thinking Ockimey might be a good option as a weak side platoon. He's killed lefties for 3 years in the minors.

 

Not really worried about the 4 or 5 off days Devers gets. The Sox have plenty of infielders. Makes no sense to give up a year of development and control so Dalbec can bat maybe 150 times

[moonslav59]

Not really worried about the 4 or 5 off days Devers gets. The Sox have plenty of infielders. Makes no sense to give up a year of development and control so Dalbec can bat maybe 150 times

 

Look how much time Moreland has been hurt.

 

I guess we could wait until he gets hurt, then call him up. Fine with me.

 

I just posted what I thought were our best line-ups.

[Bellhorn04]

The one source of optimism I have about this year is all the changes we made in pitching operations, from Kabloom to Bush to analytics and development personnel.

[notin]

Look how much time Moreland has been hurt.

 

I guess we could wait until he gets hurt, then call him up. Fine with me.

 

I just posted what I thought were our best line-ups.

 

 

I’m in April Mode.

 

That means Pillar in, Verdugo out, Moreland still alive. And Dalbec in Rhode Island...

[Bellhorn04]

I’m in April Mode.

 

That means Pillar in, Verdugo out, Moreland still alive. And Dalbec in Rhode Island...

 

Moreland is alive! He's like one of those TV shows you keep thinking will be cancelled but keeps getting renewed.

[moonslav59]

I’m in April Mode.

 

That means Pillar in, Verdugo out, Moreland still alive. And Dalbec in Rhode Island...

 

Fine.

 

I prefaced my post with "all healthy."

[jacksonianmarch]

There’s almost a certainty that a big league player is going to get COVID-19 and the season will be put on hold

[a700hitter]

There’s almost a certainty that a big league player is going to get COVID-19 and the season will be put on hold

780 MLB players. I think it is a safe bet that someone gets it. Would that be enough to shut down the season? I would hope that they would quarantine that team. There isn't a lot of physical contact in baseball.

[Hitch]

There’s almost a certainty that a big league player is going to get COVID-19 and the season will be put on hold

 

There's absolutely no chance the season is going to go ahead. No baseball will be the least of people's worries

[Elktonnick]

There's absolutely no chance the season is going to go ahead. No baseball will be the least of people's worries

 

I agree. I think this season will be delayed until May at the earliest.