A Realistic View at 2020: Part II

[Slasher9]

Bold prediction, Bloom lasts one season and gets fired after attendance and TV ratings crater in 2020.

 

that would be the mother-of-all panic moves by Commander Data....

[mvp 78]

Bold prediction, Bloom lasts one season and gets fired after attendance and TV ratings crater in 2020.

 

Very bold. I think it's more likely they extend him than let him go after one year. Most of the moves Bloom has made were directed by Henry. No way they could throw Bloom under the bus without giving him a real shot at forming his own team. They gave Ben quite a few years to hang himself.

[a700hitter]

Very bold. I think it's more likely they extend him than let him go after one year. Most of the moves Bloom has made were directed by Henry. No way they could throw Bloom under the bus without giving him a real shot at forming his own team. They gave Ben quite a few years to hang himself.

Throwing him under the bus would be no problem for Henry. It is long shot that he gets fired after one season. I hope that he doesn't get fired after 1 season, because it would mean that 2020 would have to be a catastrophe on every level. Henry is interested in making money, not in being patient waiting for a rebuild. He's 70 years old.

[mvp 78]

Throwing him under the bus would be no problem for Henry. It is long shot that he gets fired after one season. I hope that he doesn't get fired after 1 season, because it would mean that 2020 would have to be a catastrophe on every level. Henry is interested in making money, not in being patient waiting for a rebuild. He's 70 years old.

 

Hi age is a bigger factor in him just cashing out and selling his shares IMO.

[Kimmi]

Speaking of... if Manfred takes away our top draft picks, what is then more likely: trading Verdugo, Downs and Wong for minor league pitching, or spending our new flexibility on Bauer, Stroman and Ray next winter (yes, all of them)?

 

Either way, I think the Sox are waiting until Judgment Day before making their next move...

 

I think that trading away those young prospects kind of defeats the purpose of what Bloom is trying to do. I completely understand how badly we need pitching. I just don't think that trading away an already barren farm is the way to get it.

[Kimmi]

Close to 0% chance we trade those prospects.

 

I still think the Myers trade might be our best shot at getting a good young pitcher without losing any youth.

 

I completely agree.

 

Or another trade along those same lines.

[Kimmi]

I think I'm down to one topic I can argue about, which is Eovaldi. I don't get the excitement about trading him if he has a good season. So we would get rid of 2 years @ 17 million. Terrific! Then for legit starters we'd be down to E-Rod, with one year left on his contract. Yee-haw!

 

Completely agree Bell.

[mvp 78]

I think that trading away those young prospects kind of defeats the purpose of what Bloom is trying to do. I completely understand how badly we need pitching. I just don't think that trading away an already barren farm is the way to get it.

 

It's not barren anymore. We're the 22nd ranked farm! That's just slightly below average.

[Kimmi]

It's not barren anymore. We're the 22nd ranked farm! That's just slightly below average.

 

But if Bloom starts trading away the prospects he acquired, we'd be right back to #30.

 

Also, thanks Bloom!

[moonslav59]

If the season begins to look lost, we could trade Workman, assuming he's still doing well, for a young pitcher.

 

I doubt anyone gives a good young pitcher for Chavis or Dalbec, but who knows how much some GM values one of them. We could try trading Chavis and Houck for a better pitcher, but what team is looking to trade good young pitchers? (Hint: none.)

[vegasbob]

Anticipating a complete write-off now of C.F. Sale, Bloom is truly stuck and virtually has to hoire a thrower who can get 5 innings 6 times a month. If the Betts/Price deal had happene4d in December, he had time to work within the new budget. Now out of time and clearly out of luck, he will have to find a thrower so Narron can get 10 names on the lineup card.

All the youngsters mentioned as trade bait won't get you much now, because none would be filling frontline starting positions elsewhere, except possibly JBJ and Beni. Not a brilliant move now. Better value could be had by holding all the potential trading cards until July and then see what is available. Very hard to see the Sox in any contention at that time and a surprise team or contender with injuries could be made to pay up with a legit AAA/AAAA pitcher ready to mature in 2021

[moonslav59]

Anticipating a complete write-off now of C.F. Sale, Bloom is truly stuck and virtually has to hoire a thrower who can get 5 innings 6 times a month. If the Betts/Price deal had happene4d in December, he had time to work within the new budget. Now out of time and clearly out of luck, he will have to find a thrower so Narron can get 10 names on the lineup card.

All the youngsters mentioned as trade bait won't get you much now, because none would be filling frontline starting positions elsewhere, except possibly JBJ and Beni. Not a brilliant move now. Better value could be had by holding all the potential trading cards until July and then see what is available. Very hard to see the Sox in any contention at that time and a surprise team or contender with injuries could be made to pay up with a legit AAA/AAAA pitcher ready to mature in 2021

 

Better to not trade youth for a lost season anyways.

 

No deal should be made, unless it improves our chances in 2021 and beyond.

[notin]

Better to not trade youth for a lost season anyways.

 

No deal should be made, unless it improves our chances in 2021 and beyond.

 

 

Unless it’s Chavis.

 

Brewers have a surplus of young arms and a few question marks in the infield.

 

But I think we’d all be surprised by a March trade...

[oldtimer]

Better to not trade youth for a lost season anyways.

 

No deal should be made, unless it improves our chances in 2021 and beyond.

 

I totally agree. Perhaps current big name players on the downside of their careers should be let go in hopes of finding good prospects on the upside of theirs. 2020 is unlikely to be a season where we can compete at the highest level. Look to 2021 and beyond.

[moonslav59]

Unless it’s Chavis.

 

Brewers have a surplus of young arms and a few question marks in the infield.

 

But I think we’d all be surprised by a March trade...

 

I've suggested trading Chavis dozens of times, and I still would, if it was for another young player or prospect- preferably a pitcher.

 

The problem is, what team will trade a good young pitcher for the next Middy?

[moonslav59]

I totally agree. Perhaps current big name players on the downside of their careers should be let go in hopes of finding good prospects on the upside of theirs. 2020 is unlikely to be a season where we can compete at the highest level. Look to 2021 and beyond.

 

Who would that be?

 

JD?

JBJ?

Eovaldi? (assuming he shows he's back)

Barnes?

Workman?

Moreland?

[Larry Cook]

Who would that be?

 

JD?

JBJ?

Eovaldi? (assuming he shows he's back)

Barnes?

Workman?

Moreland?

 

Does Martinez opt out after this season?

[mvp 78]

Does Martinez opt out after this season?

 

0% chance

[jacksonianmarch]

0% chance

 

Disagree. Is JDM likely to surpass his current AAV? No. But after 2020, JDM goes down to his final 2 yrs $38 mil and he still gets a $2.5 mil kicker if he opts out. So can he get more than $35.5 mil guaranteed on the open market? If he puts up another .900+ OPS season, I’d say it’s pretty likely he could score a 4 yr $60 mil deal. As a 33 yr old, that’s securing an extra $24.5 mil of guarantees. These guys start to look at guaranteed money over AAV at that point

[mvp 78]

From MLBTradeRumors "8 AL East Pitchers Looking for Redemption"

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/03/8-al-east-pitchers-looking-for-bounce-back-years.html

 

Nathan Eovaldi, RHP, Red Sox:

 

The flamethrowing Eovaldi was one of Boston’s many heroes during its World Series run in 2018, convincing the team to re-sign him to a four-year, $68MM contract thereafter. But the first year of the pact was a disaster for both sides, as Eovaldi missed significant time with elbow problems and didn’t perform well when he was able to pitch. The 30-year-old wound up with career-worst numbers in ERA (5.99), FIP (5.90) and BB/9 (4.66), thereby offsetting a personal-high K/9 of 9.31. There’s optimism he’ll rebound this year, which would be a boon for a Red Sox team that just traded David Price and has seen elbow issues weigh down Chris Sale this spring.

 

Chris Sale, LHP, Red Sox:

 

Speaking of Sale, the longtime ace simply didn’t deliver the type of results we had grown accustomed to seeing last season. The 30-year-old was still awfully good, notching 13.32 K/9 and 2.26 BB/9, but turned in a bloated ERA (4.40) and FIP (3.39) in comparison to prior campaigns. He also saw his mean fastball velocity dip by over a mile an hour from the prior couple years, as he averaged 93.2 mph with the pitch. That’s not what the Red Sox wanted after signing Sale to a five-year, $145MM extension last spring. Considering that deal won’t even take effect until this season, it’ll be all the worse for the Red Sox if his current elbow injury proves to be serious.

[mvp 78]

McHugh signed for a base salary of 600K, with options to reach 4.25M based on production and service time.

[mvp 78]

As for Velazquez, he’ll either be traded, run through outright waiver or released within the next seven days. The 31-year-old right-hander was knocked around to the tune of a 5.43 ERA through 56 1/3 innings in 2019. And although he notched a 3.12 ERA with 5.9 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a 47 percent grounder rate in 109 2/3 innings from 2017-18, Velazquez’s secondary metrics are less encouraging than that earned run average. His 4.28 FIP was noticeably higher, and he ranked near the bottom of the league in terms of spin rates, hard-hit rates and opponents’ exit velocity. He has a minor league option left and has worked as both a starter and reliever, so it’s possible another club will take him on as a depth piece.

[notin]

0% chance

 

 

Based on what?

 

His 2021 and 2022 season are the lowest paying ones in his deal...

[mvp 78]

Based on what?

 

His 2021 and 2022 season are the lowest paying ones in his deal...

 

Fine, I'll adjust my calculation for all you guys...

 

-10%

[moonslav59]

Red Sox Sign Collin McHugh

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/03/red-sox-sign-collin-mchugh.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

[moonslav59]

Velazquez DFA'd.

[a700hitter]

Based on what?

 

His 2021 and 2022 season are the lowest paying ones in his deal...

Each year, he is becoming more of a DH. As a DH, he is overpaid throughout the duration of his contract. I agree that there is 0% of him opting out unless he hits 50+ HRs and wins the MVP.

[vegasbob]

Who would that be?

 

JD?

JBJ?

Eovaldi? (assuming he shows he's back)

Barnes?

Workman?

Moreland?

 

If the Sox are out of it in July, and there was any value in moving Eo, JBJ, Barnes and Moreland then no objections. Not a salry issue now, but an upside/durability issue. Are the Sox going to make a significant FA offer to JBJr while chasing Mookie around the country,? I doubt it. will Moreland ever be better than he can be this year ? Not likely ? If Eovaldi has a great first half with no injury do you risk that condition holding for another few years ? Not really in a non competitive year. Is Matt Barnes getting better, I guess there is a chance but a small one.

[notin]

Each year, he is becoming more of a DH. As a DH, he is overpaid throughout the duration of his contract. I agree that there is 0% of him opting out unless he hits 50+ HRs and wins the MVP.

 

He may opt out just to try and get a 3 or 4 year deal to prolong his career. He might have reached the point where years trump money...

[Bellhorn04]

He may opt out just to try and get a 3 or 4 year deal to prolong his career. He might have reached the point where years trump money...

 

OTOH handing out big deals to 33 year old DH's isn't as popular as it once was.