A Realistic View at 2020: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

But wouldn't they have noticed how horrible his glove was? I mean, your main assertion is that Sox fans hated Renteria because of his glove and it had nothing to do with his batting.

 

The hitting played into it too.

 

I think it all started with the contract. 4 years for 40 million was a fair chunk in those days. Expectations were probably set a little high.

 

I wasn't one of the people calling him Rent-a-Wreck. Just trying to explain it.

[Bellhorn04]

OCab, the guy who had 8 errors in only 50 games in 2004? That butcher? There's no way the Sox fans would have liked him! More like OBad.

 

But in the '04 postseason he was rock solid and error-free for 14 games, and hit a little too.

[mvp 78]

The hitting played into it too.

 

I think it all started with the contract. 4 years for 40 million was a fair chunk in those days. Expectations were probably set a little high.

 

I wasn't one of the people calling him Rent-a-Wreck. Just trying to explain it.

 

Explanation: Sox fans are idiots too

 

Renteria had a bad year in the field but I don’t believe it meant he couldn’t play in Boston. He played well on baseball’s biggest stage (aka World Series).

[Bellhorn04]

Explanation: Sox fans are idiots too

 

Renteria had a bad year in the field but I don’t believe it meant he couldn’t play in Boston. He played well on baseball’s biggest stage (aka World Series).

 

I was a little surprised that Theo gave up on him so quickly and ate all that money, but I assumed he had his reasons.

[mvp 78]

I was a little surprised that Theo gave up on him so quickly and ate all that money, but I assumed he had his reasons.

 

He wanted his man crush Julio Lugo.

[notin]

Another thing with Renteria was that Cabrera played so well for us in '04 and people were puzzled that Theo didn't just re-sign him. Later came the stories about OCab's off-field antics.

 

Well, Theo also liked doing the "two for one" draft pick flip by signing a player who was roughly equivalent...

[mvp 78]

Well, Theo also liked doing the "two for one" draft pick flip by signing a player who was roughly equivalent...

 

Alex Gonzalez was not equivalent to Renteria.

[mvp 78]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/02/who-else-could-the-red-sox-target-in-trades.html

 

When Wil Myers’ name surfaced in trade rumblings surrounding the Padres, Red Sox and Mookie Betts, it seemed like a fairly straightforward thought process. The Padres wanted to acquire a star (Betts), had been seeking to jettison some of Myers’ contract and didn’t want to pay both Myers’ $20MM salary and Betts’ $27MM salary. But when the Myers-to-Red Sox rumors reemerged even after Betts had been traded to the Dodgers, that was more surprising. Eventually, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reported that the Sox’ aim in those talks was to use some of their newfound payroll space and luxury tax breathing room to effectively purchase some young pitching from the Padres. The basic premise: take on half of Myers’ contract and also acquire a pitcher such as Cal Quantrill to immediately plug into the mix at the MLB level. However, per Speier, there’s not much optimism at the moment that such a deal will come together.

 

However, it’s not as simple as just picking out a big-time contract and saying, “Let’s dump this on the Red Sox along with [Player X]!” Myers’ contract was something of an ideal fit for the Sox. The Padres aggressively backloaded his six-year, $83MM deal to the point that Myers earned only $7MM in salaries from 2017-19 (in addition to a weighty $15MM signing bonus). That’s notable for the Red Sox because they’re still “only” about $12-13MM shy of the luxury barrier. Taking on a bad contract with a $20MM+ annual salary over its full term — the relevant data point from a competitive balance tax perspective — would put them right back into the tax territory that ownership insisted on escaping erm, was … happy to escape as an ancillary benefit of building a competitive window … or however they choose to try to spin it.

 

Myers came with a $13.8MM luxury hit — and the cash the Padres would’ve included in the deal (a reported $30MM or so) would’ve essentially dropped Boston’s luxury obligation to $3.8MM. That’s an ideal balance of flexing the club’s deep pockets without running the risk of even approaching the luxury barrier. It’s easy to suggest Albert Pujols ($24MM AAV), Justin Upton ($23MM), Jason Heyward ($23MM), Chris Davis ($23MM), Matt Carpenter ($18.5MM) and plenty of others as a plausible fit, but Myers presented Boston with the rare opportunity to absorb half of a player’s remaining contract (and more than 36 percent of the total value) while only increasing their luxury payroll by about 1.9 percent. That’s not going to be the case with such high-AAV players.

 

Arrangements like the Myers deal are tough to find. Myers may well have been the single best target for this prospect-purchasing gambit — but he’s not the only one. Let’s take a speculative look at who else the Red Sox could inquire on in an effort to pursue a similar template but with a different trade focal point:

 

Rougned Odor, Rangers, 2B (three years, $36MM remaining on six-year, $49.5MM deal)

 

To say the Odor extension hasn’t worked out for the Rangers would be putting things mildly; he’s hit .219/.285/.419 since putting pen to paper three years ago, and the bulk of the guarantee is yet to be paid out

 

Maybe they wouldn’t be keen on using Kolby Allard (or someone similar) to rid themselves of the Odor contract, but if you’re the Red Sox, that’s an avenue to explore. It’s not like second base is a position of great certainty in Boston at the moment, anyhow.

 

Kyle Seager, Mariners, 3B (two years, $37MM remaining on seven-year, $100MM deal*)

 

The asterisk next to Odor’s name is necessitated by his contract’s “poison pill” — i.e. a $15MM club option that turns into a player option in the event of a trade. He’s at two years and $37MM only while donning a Mariners jersey; the moment he’s traded, that effectively becomes three years and $52MM.

 

Dee Gordon, Mariners, 2B/OF (one year, $14.5MM remaining on five-year, $50MM deal)

 

Same concept as Seager but with slightly different details. Gordon is a man without a position in Seattle and a free agent at season’s end. Gordon’s deal comes with a $10MM luxury hit that the Sox could shoehorn into their ledger without going over the barrier, but they’d have minimal breathing room.

 

Randal Grichuk, Blue Jays, OF (four years, $43MM remaining on five-year, $52MM deal)

 

It’s hard not to wonder if the Jays would like a mulligan on last spring’s extension after Grichuk slashed .232/.280/.457 in 2019, effectively playing at replacement level. Then again, the Grichuk deal was a head-scratching move for most onlookers (myself included), as he didn’t appear to be a clear extension candidate. The Sox aren’t getting Nate Pearson or anyone close to that caliber out of this deal, but paying a good chunk Grichuk’s deal in an effort to acquire a controllable fourth/fifth starter would be plenty defensible.

 

Ian Desmond, Rockies, INF/OF (two years, $26MM remaining on five-year, $70MM deal)

 

Colorado owner Dick Monfort opened the season by declaring a lack of payroll flexibility (and, after a winter of inactivity, bizarrely proclaimed that the same Rockies club that lost 91 games in 2019 would win 94 games in 2020). The Rockies aren’t exactly teeming with high-end pitching talent — hence the 91 losses in 2019 — but they have seven or eight starters on the 40-man roster and in Triple-A behind German Marquez, Jon Gray and Kyle Freeland.

[notin]

Alex Gonzalez was not equivalent to Renteria.

 

Renteria was a close proximity to OCab, at least before Boston. With Gonzalez, Renteria did not depart via free agency, so there was no possibility of doubling up the draft picks...

[Kimmi]

Rumor is the Pads didn’t want to give up the pitching. If that’s true, Sox are better off walking away IMO.

 

I would agree. There is no reason for us to take Myers if we're not going to get some cost controlled pitching along with him.

[Kimmi]

Rumor is the Pads didn’t want to give up the pitching. If that’s true, Sox are better off walking away IMO.

 

Also, I think that's why they're trying to involve a 3rd team in the deal.

[moonslav59]

Also, I think that's why they're trying to involve a 3rd team in the deal.

 

What third team doesn't need a good, young pitcher?

[Kimmi]

What third team doesn't need a good, young pitcher?

 

I don't know. I didn't catch the logistics of it. I just read that they are possibly trying to involve a 3rd team because SD was hesitant to part with young pitching.

[mvp 78]

Also, I think that's why they're trying to involve a 3rd team in the deal.

 

Not holding out hope.

[moonslav59]

I don't know. I didn't catch the logistics of it. I just read that they are possibly trying to involve a 3rd team because SD was hesitant to part with young pitching.

 

Understandable, as every team values their good young pitchers.

 

I'd love to see us get pitching, but I'd take Campusano with Myers & $30M. I'd even give them Chavis for that package.

[Larry Cook]

The braves have young pitching galore.

 

Maybe hang’em Chaim could work sone magic with them.

 

Wilson could be a future stud.

[Kimmi]

Not holding out hope.

 

I am holding out hope for some decent starting pitching.

[Kimmi]

Understandable, as every team values their good young pitchers.

 

I'd love to see us get pitching, but I'd take Campusano with Myers & $30M. I'd even give them Chavis for that package.

 

I'm sure Bloom is working on some very creative ways to get us some cost-controlled pitching. Whether he'll be successful in doing that is another story. I am hopeful.

[mvp 78]

I am holding out hope for some decent starting pitching.

 

I don’t think you’ll be happy with the opener direction they’ll take.

[Kimmi]

The braves have young pitching galore.

 

Maybe hang’em Chaim could work sone magic with them.

 

Wilson could be a future stud.

 

There you go Larry.

 

Give Bloom a call and tell him to get on it.

[Kimmi]

I don’t think you’ll be happy with the opener direction they’ll take.

 

That could be. There's a very real possibility that the Sox will see how well things work with what we have, then go from there.

 

Our pitching depth really stinks though. I can't imagine the Sox not adding another starter sooner rather than later.

[notin]

The braves have young pitching galore.

 

Maybe hang’em Chaim could work sone magic with them.

 

Wilson could be a future stud.

 

And what do the Sox have the Braves want?

 

(Hint: Devers)

 

I think this might be a hard pass...

[mvp 78]

And what do the Sox have the Braves want?

 

(Hint: Devers)

 

I think this might be a hard pass...

Sox would need 4 top 100 prospects to even think about moving Devers.

[notin]

Sox would need 4 top 100 prospects to even think about moving Devers.

 

Trade simulator on BTV has deal of Devers for Christian Pache, Ian Anderson and Kyle Wright as about equal. I wouldn't do it.

 

It also has a deal of Dalbec for Wright as acceptable. I would do it so fast, we'd all go back in time. But I am not so sure Atlanta would make that deal at all...

[Bellhorn04]

Sox would need 4 top 100 prospects to even think about moving Devers.

 

The idea of them trading Devers on top of trading Mookie is unspeakably absurd.

[notin]

Sox would need 4 top 100 prospects to even think about moving Devers.

 

Or, if you need 4, the Sox could ask for Drew Waters and Austin Riley instead of Pache. Buy I think that is a bad replacement...

[Bellhorn04]

Or, if you need 4, the Sox could ask for Drew Waters and Austin Riley instead of Pache. Buy I think that is a bad replacement...

 

Stop.

[notin]

The idea of them trading Devers on top of trading Mookie is unspeakably absurd.

 

It is.

 

I think the Sox should do the following

 

1. Sign Collin McHugh

2. Sign Yasiel Puig. (You don't get knocked off the Puig Bandwagon by Kevin Pillar.)

 

 

I think the Myers-style "prospect buys are nice, but most of the other contracts in the same position come with mediocre to bad farm systems attached, or teams unwilling to move the payers in them.

 

If I could move Dalbec for pitching depth (Atlanta?), I do it. He's blocked anyway...

[notin]

Stop.

 

Only for the persepctive. Frankly, as I said in both posts, I'm underwhelmed by the return.

 

There is a better chance of the Sox signing me than trading Devers...

[Bellhorn04]

It is.

 

I think the Sox should do the following

 

1. Sign Collin McHugh

2. Sign Yasiel Puig. (You don't get knocked off the Puig Bandwagon by Kevin Pillar.)

 

1. Sure

2. Not a chance. Verdugo brought enough baggage of his own.