A Realistic View at 2020: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

But the deferred money deals like Sale’s are not?

 

No, deferred money deals like Sale's, Scherzer's and Strasburg's are totally legit. The players really are agreeing to substantial deferrals, and the present values are used for tax purposes.

[Kimmi]

We're probably not done yet.

 

I am sure that the Sox are not done yet, but I'm surprised that they haven't added some depth starting pitching yet. Maybe those guys are still holding out for major league contracts?

 

It's looking more and more like the Sox are going to go with the opener or piggy back strategy to start the season, then add midseason as needed.

[Kimmi]

we will use an opener / BP game 2x through if we have to. maybe even 3.

i'm still trying to wrap my head around "opener/BP" games but will need to do it quick as we will be seeing this all season long. the kids that can throw will get many chances this season.

 

I am not a fan of using an opener or having a bullpen game as a regular turn in the rotation, but that seems to be the way things are trending. I guess I have to get used to it.

[Kimmi]

Done with what? Nobody is left to sign.

 

There is always the trade route.

[Bellhorn04]

I am not a fan of using an opener or having a bullpen game as a regular turn in the rotation, but that seems to be the way things are trending. I guess I have to get used to it.

 

If they do that instead of a #5 starter, I'm OK with it. Any more than that and I wouldn't be happy.

[Kimmi]

If they do that instead of a #5 starter, I'm OK with it. Any more than that and I wouldn't be happy.

 

I don't even like it for the #5 spot. I don't like how the role of the starting pitcher is seemingly being diminished, little by little.

[Nick]

I don't even like it for the #5 spot. I don't like how the role of the starting pitcher is seemingly being diminished, little by little.

 

Part of the problem is you rarely see a staff where all five starters average five or six innings. Certainly not like the old days

[oldtimer]

I am sure that the Sox are not done yet, but I'm surprised that they haven't added some depth starting pitching yet. Maybe those guys are still holding out for major league contracts?

 

It's looking more and more like the Sox are going to go with the opener or piggy back strategy to start the season, then add midseason as needed.

 

It looks like using the Will Meyers contract takeover to obtain nearly ready pitching prospects will fail, so another avenue is needed. Perhaps they are looking at the cheating scandal resolution before trying to get a 5th starter through trade.

[moonslav59]

It looks like using the Will Meyers contract takeover to obtain nearly ready pitching prospects will fail, so another avenue is needed. Perhaps they are looking at the cheating scandal resolution before trying to get a 5th starter through trade.

 

I would not give up on the Myers-Quantril trade. Bloom is probably pushing for more cash from SD, and will wait until they realize nobody else will take Myers.

[Larry Cook]

I would not give up on the Myers-Quantril trade. Bloom is probably pushing for more cash from SD, and will wait until they realize nobody else will take Myers.

 

If you were hang’em Chaim, wouldn’t you do the same thing?

[jad]

No, deferred money deals like Sale's, Scherzer's and Strasburg's are totally legit. The players really are agreeing to substantial deferrals, and the present values are used for tax purposes.

 

Hmm. You and Slasher9 seem to disagree on this. Not trying to start a fight. Just want to know the answer.

[jad]

Hmm. You and Slasher9 seem to disagree on this. Not trying to start a fight. Just want to know the answer.

 

OK. As far as I can tell, yes, those contracts are all legit. But for luxury tax purposes, the total amount is averaged over the years of the contract itself. (OK. Player [like Scherzer] gets 200 million for five years, say, with 50 million of that deferred for 7 or 8 years. So the club would shell out only 30 million for the five years he plays, then the extra 50 in the future, when he's not under contract. But for luxury tax purposes, the math is simpler: it's the average. In this [hypothetical] case, it's 40 million/year for 5 years.)

[moonslav59]

If you were hang’em Chaim, wouldn’t you do the same thing?

 

I'm 100% behind Bloom.

[harmony]

I would not give up on the Myers-Quantril trade. Bloom is probably pushing for more cash from SD, and will wait until they realize nobody else will take Myers.

On the flip side, the Padres may be pushing for less cash from their side knowing that the Red Sox have few options to bolster their thin pitching ranks and lowly rated farm system.

 

Or not.

[mvp 78]

On the flip side, the Padres may be pushing for less cash from their side knowing that the Red Sox have few options to bolster their thin pitching ranks and lowly rated farm system.

 

Or not.

And the Sox can just let the Pads keep that s***** Myers deal the SD owner doesn’t want to pay.

[Bellhorn04]

OK. As far as I can tell, yes, those contracts are all legit. But for luxury tax purposes, the total amount is averaged over the years of the contract itself. (OK. Player [like Scherzer] gets 200 million for five years, say, with 50 million of that deferred for 7 or 8 years. So the club would shell out only 30 million for the five years he plays, then the extra 50 in the future, when he's not under contract. But for luxury tax purposes, the math is simpler: it's the average. In this [hypothetical] case, it's 40 million/year for 5 years.)

 

Correct, except that in the last CBA they made a change so that the approximate present value of the deferred payments would be counted for payroll tax purposes.

 

So Sale's actual payments are 145 million for 5 years, but the present value was calculated at 128 million, and his AAV for tax purposes is 25.6 million.

[moonslav59]

On the flip side, the Padres may be pushing for less cash from their side knowing that the Red Sox have few options to bolster their thin pitching ranks and lowly rated farm system.

 

Or not.

 

It's not.

 

But, I guess if one team is asking for more- the other is asking for less.

Edited February 27, 2020 by moonslav59

[Slasher9]

OK. As far as I can tell, yes, those contracts are all legit. But for luxury tax purposes, the total amount is averaged over the years of the contract itself. (OK. Player [like Scherzer] gets 200 million for five years, say, with 50 million of that deferred for 7 or 8 years. So the club would shell out only 30 million for the five years he plays, then the extra 50 in the future, when he's not under contract. But for luxury tax purposes, the math is simpler: it's the average. In this [hypothetical] case, it's 40 million/year for 5 years.)

 

bingo. the bad news is that just as all of us are finally learning/figuring out how this all works - there will be a new CBA soon and we will be back to square one of not knowing anything.

[harmony]

And the Sox can just let the Pads keep that s***** Myers deal the SD owner doesn’t want to pay.

And the Red Sox can go forward with a shaky rotation and lowly ranked farm system.

[mvp 78]

And the Red Sox can go forward with a shaky rotation and lowly ranked farm system.

 

Seems like they are ok with the first part. Seems like they are working on the second part.

[mvp 78]

It's not.

 

But, I guess if one team is asking for more- the other is asking for less.

 

If the Padres want the Sox to take on more salary, the Sox will just hold out for more prospects.

[oldtimer]

And the Red Sox can go forward with a shaky rotation and lowly ranked farm system.

 

Lets await the cheating scandal penalties (if any) to see where we sit. I would hate to see the team draft be hurt further or beset with other penalties.

[moonslav59]

Competitive Balance Tax (AAV) in Millions of Dollars (cots):

25.6 Sale (to '24)

22.0 Martinez (opt out or to '22)

20.0 Bogaerts (to '25 with team option for '26)

17.0 Eovaldi (to '22)

16.0 Price (to '22 while playing for LAD)

13.8 Pedroia (to '21)

11.0 Bradley (last year)

8.30 Rodriguez (1 more arb)

6.50 Perez (team option for '21)

5.00 Benintendi (to '21 then last arb)

4.52 Vazquez (to '21 w team option for '22)

4.25 Pillar (last year)

3.50 Workman (last year)

3.00 Moreland (team option for '21)

3.00 Barnes (1 more arb)

2.85 Peraza (2 more arbs)

1.61 Hembree (1 more arb)

0.90 Plawecki (2 more arbs)

0.85 Osich (2 more arbs)

All others are at pre-arb rates.

 

191.58 Projected

 

16.42 below threshold

 

Possible contracts lost before 2021 (last year of control or option for '22):

11.0 JBJ

6.50 Perez

4.25 Pillar

3.5 Workman

3.0 Moreland

 

About $28M total.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Competitive Balance Tax (AAV) in Millions of Dollars (cots):

25.6 Sale (to '24)

22.0 Martinez (opt out or to '22)

20.0 Bogaerts (to '25 with team option for '26)

17.0 Eovaldi (to '22)

16.0 Price (to '22 while playing for LAD)

13.8 Pedroia (to '21)

11.0 Bradley (last year)

8.30 Rodriguez (1 more arb)

6.50 Perez (team option for '21)

5.00 Benintendi (to '21 then last arb)

4.52 Vazquez (to '21 w team option for '22)

4.25 Pillar (last year)

3.50 Workman (last year)

3.00 Moreland (team option for '21)

3.00 Barnes (1 more arb)

2.85 Peraza (2 more arbs)

1.61 Hembree (1 more arb)

0.90 Plawecki (2 more arbs)

0.85 Osich (2 more arbs)

All others are at pre-arb rates.

 

191.58 Projected

 

16.42 below threshold

 

Possible contracts lost before 2021 (last year of control or option for '22):

11.0 JBJ

6.50 Perez

4.25 Pillar

3.5 Workman

3.0 Moreland

 

About $28M total.

 

 

So, the Sox are paying Perez and their entire bullpen as much as they're paying Price just to go away. Makes you wonder when the Yankees will feel a similar need with Cole in the next nine years.

 

Love the spotlight shift so far -- MLB.com's top story a few days ago hyped Cole throwing 98 in his first outing! I kept looking for a blurb on Eovaldi throwing 100, but it must have been deleted...

[mvp 78]

If they fall out of contention, they'll try to move Eovaldi and JD, but I don't know if they'll have any takers.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If they fall out of contention, they'll try to move Eovaldi and JD, but I don't know if they'll have any takers.

 

JD for sure will be gone -- you know the Bloom regime won't let him opt out before getting "value" back in return.

 

Nate you hold onto. A starter with his stuff under contract is what rebuilding teams need to build around...

[Nick]

Competitive Balance Tax (AAV) in Millions of Dollars (cots):

25.6 Sale (to '24)

22.0 Martinez (opt out or to '22)

20.0 Bogaerts (to '25 with team option for '26)

17.0 Eovaldi (to '22)

16.0 Price (to '22 while playing for LAD)

13.8 Pedroia (to '21)

11.0 Bradley (last year)

8.30 Rodriguez (1 more arb)

6.50 Perez (team option for '21)

5.00 Benintendi (to '21 then last arb)

4.52 Vazquez (to '21 w team option for '22)

4.25 Pillar (last year)

3.50 Workman (last year)

3.00 Moreland (team option for '21)

3.00 Barnes (1 more arb)

2.85 Peraza (2 more arbs)

1.61 Hembree (1 more arb)

0.90 Plawecki (2 more arbs)

0.85 Osich (2 more arbs)

All others are at pre-arb rates.

 

191.58 Projected

 

16.42 below threshold

 

Possible contracts lost before 2021 (last year of control or option for '22):

11.0 JBJ

6.50 Perez

4.25 Pillar

3.5 Workman

3.0 Moreland

 

About $28M total.

 

 

I know it won't happen but it would be nice if last year's Pedey's contract can be reworked. Retire Pedey. Get the money from Henry in another way.

[mvp 78]

JD for sure will be gone -- you know the Bloom regime won't let him opt out before getting "value" back in return.

 

Nate you hold onto. A starter with his stuff under contract is what rebuilding teams need to build around...

 

I bet Eovaldi has a better market than JD if they are both healthy. JD is very limited in where he can play (DH only cuts out 50% of trading partners). He's also overpaid for what he'd get on the open market today. I think you move Eovaldi because of injury concerns and the need to reduce payroll for future signings and extensions.

[mvp 78]

I know it won't happen but it would be nice if last year's Pedey's contract can be reworked. Retire Pedey. Get the money from Henry in another way.

 

They could have just traded him 6 years ago.

[mvp 78]

@alexspeier

Roenicke says Sale will be on injured list to start season. Says he’s about 2 weeks behind.