Mookie Betts: Trade or Extend

[Kimmi]

i would be SHOCKED if he doesnt reset. shocked.

 

Honestly, I'm sometimes not sure what to think.

[moonslav59]

Fair post.

 

It depends on what other moves go along with any "house cleaning" type moves. With the moves you mentioned above, the team remained competitive, at least on paper. I don't think we'll tolerate going into the season knowing that we won't have chance of making the playoffs.

 

Let me ask you and the board this, assuming we reset. Let's say we keep everyone but JBJ and have no money to spend on anyone else. Do you the think the majority of fans or board members would think we have a "good chance" at making the playoffs with that team?

 

If yes, I'm not sure the chances are all that high. If the answer is yes, wouldn't we be prolonging the "rebuild" and return to greatness by not moving sooner to deal some of our 1-2 year control players to improve the future at the expense of maybe lowering our odds of making the playoffs from 40-50% to maybe 20-25%?

 

Would fans be okay, if they really liked the prospects or young players we got back in trades, knowing it might take 2-5 years for those players to make big impacts?

 

I'm not saying those are the only choices or possibilities, but I do think fans are pretty forgiving when hope is higher.

[Red Foreman]

Never seen a woman on a shopping spree?

[mvp 78]

Extend.

[vegasbob]

Let me ask you and the board this, assuming we reset. Let's say we keep everyone but JBJ and have no money to spend on anyone else. Do you the think the majority of fans or board members would think we have a "good chance" at making the playoffs with that team?

 

If yes, I'm not sure the chances are all that high. If the answer is yes, wouldn't we be prolonging the "rebuild" and return to greatness by not moving sooner to deal some of our 1-2 year control players to improve the future at the expense of maybe lowering our odds of making the playoffs from 40-50% to maybe 20-25%?

 

Would fans be okay, if they really liked the prospects or young players we got back in trades, knowing it might take 2-5 years for those players to make big impacts?

 

I'm not saying those are the only choices or possibilities, but I do think fans are pretty forgiving when hope is higher.

 

Moon, the elephant in the room that goes beyond any coaching changes or rebuild by trades or sudden development by one of the higher Sox MiLB players or extension of Betts is what can Sale/Price/Eovaldi do next year, and can Erod maintain his 2019 success.

Without those 3 earning their punishing contracts, the position players output won't matter any more than it did this year. The real problem is that the Red Sox won't know what those 3 can do at the earliest mid-February and more likely Memorial Day 2020, when it will be too late to make much of a difference.

Additionally, a #5/6 starter needs to be acquired who can outpitch the Johnson/Velazquez/Weber bunch. Porcello despite all the moaning and groaning filled a big slug of innings and won at about the same pace as the team did.

 

The starting pitching was considered the strength in Spring 2019 and faltered badly despite Erod's emergence. Shuffling Beni, JBJr,Betts, JDM, etc is not going to answer the question of the starters contribution. A good year by each of them will turn the Sox into competitors again. Poor results and it will be over by end of May.

 

An incoming GM, or internal promotion will be seriously challenged because they have the contracts to pay out, but do they have 1, 2, or 3 capable starters for the next few years ? Recency tells us do not count on Sale or Price and Eovaldi is iffy too for a full season.. Not good odds.

[notin]

Moon, the elephant in the room that goes beyond any coaching changes or rebuild by trades or sudden development by one of the higher Sox MiLB players or extension of Betts is what can Sale/Price/Eovaldi do next year, and can Erod maintain his 2019 success.

Without those 3 earning their punishing contracts, the position players output won't matter any more than it did this year. The real problem is that the Red Sox won't know what those 3 can do at the earliest mid-February and more likely Memorial Day 2020, when it will be too late to make much of a difference.

Additionally, a #5/6 starter needs to be acquired who can outpitch the Johnson/Velazquez/Weber bunch. Porcello despite all the moaning and groaning filled a big slug of innings and won at about the same pace as the team did.

 

The starting pitching was considered the strength in Spring 2019 and faltered badly despite Erod's emergence. Shuffling Beni, JBJr,Betts, JDM, etc is not going to answer the question of the starters contribution. A good year by each of them will turn the Sox into competitors again. Poor results and it will be over by end of May.

 

An incoming GM, or internal promotion will be seriously challenged because they have the contracts to pay out, but do they have 1, 2, or 3 capable starters for the next few years ? Recency tells us do not count on Sale or Price and Eovaldi is iffy too for a full season.. Not good odds.

 

If the Sox season rests on Price/Sale/Eovaldi and all are unknown, then the smart solution is to bulk up the bullpen. Grabs a competent warm body to round out the rotation (Tanner Roark?) and do what you can to bulk up the pen with 2 or 3 of the best arms that can be had. That way, if the Front Three are less than expected, you limit their IP and shut down the opposition for innings 6-9 and play a game where they have 5 innings to score more than the Sox can in 9 innings.

 

If the Sox deal Betts, does it put Aroldis Chapman on the radar?

[Bellhorn04]

If the Sox season rests on Price/Sale/Eovaldi and all are unknown, then the smart solution is to bulk up the bullpen. Grabs a competent warm body to round out the rotation (Tanner Roark?) and do what you can to bulk up the pen with 2 or 3 of the best arms that can be had. That way, if the Front Three are less than expected, you limit their IP and shut down the opposition for innings 6-9 and play a game where they have 5 innings to score more than the Sox can in 9 innings.

 

If the Sox deal Betts, does it put Aroldis Chapman on the radar?

 

Deal Betts so we can sign Chapman?

 

700hitter is right, we need a vomit emoji here.

[notin]

Deal Betts so we can sign Chapman?

 

700hitter is right, we need a vomit emoji here.

 

It might be possible to afford both if JDM opts out...

[Slasher9]

Deal Betts so we can sign Chapman?

 

700hitter is right, we need a vomit emoji here.

 

got you bro:

 

[notin]

If the Sox do have concerns about their rotation, then the only option at this point - since trading any of Sale, Price and Eovaldi is not likely at all - should be to really focus on the bullpen and shorten games.

 

Chapman is certainly unpopular among Sox fans, but if he opts out, he does become the premier reliever on the market. I do suspect he opts out, since he can make more in a deal now that he will with his option years in NY.

 

If the Sox don't pay for Chapman, always possible on a resetting team, the next tier of relievers on the market on not so attractive. Hector Rondon is certainly very underrated and under appreciated, but he is also not exactly among the game's best. Arodys Vizcaino is a terrific reliever, but he is rarely actually healthy enough to pitch. Betances is currently injured, but might be available, but also carries The Former Yankee Stigma aka Ramiro Mendoza Syndrome.

 

I suppose Kenley Jansen might opt out...

[Slasher9]

#bullpengames is real.

i guess we need to get used to it.....

[jacksonianmarch]

If the Sox do have concerns about their rotation, then the only option at this point - since trading any of Sale, Price and Eovaldi is not likely at all - should be to really focus on the bullpen and shorten games.

 

Chapman is certainly unpopular among Sox fans, but if he opts out, he does become the premier reliever on the market. I do suspect he opts out, since he can make more in a deal now that he will with his option years in NY.

 

If the Sox don't pay for Chapman, always possible on a resetting team, the next tier of relievers on the market on not so attractive. Hector Rondon is certainly very underrated and under appreciated, but he is also not exactly among the game's best. Arodys Vizcaino is a terrific reliever, but he is rarely actually healthy enough to pitch. Betances is currently injured, but might be available, but also carries The Former Yankee Stigma aka Ramiro Mendoza Syndrome.

 

I suppose Kenley Jansen might opt out...

 

Chapman will opt out, but I anticipate the Yanks may tack on a few seasons, add another opt out and get a smaller AAV. No way Kenley opts out. He has been a disaster this year

[Kimmi]

Let me ask you and the board this, assuming we reset. Let's say we keep everyone but JBJ and have no money to spend on anyone else. Do you the think the majority of fans or board members would think we have a "good chance" at making the playoffs with that team?

 

If yes, I'm not sure the chances are all that high. If the answer is yes, wouldn't we be prolonging the "rebuild" and return to greatness by not moving sooner to deal some of our 1-2 year control players to improve the future at the expense of maybe lowering our odds of making the playoffs from 40-50% to maybe 20-25%?

 

Would fans be okay, if they really liked the prospects or young players we got back in trades, knowing it might take 2-5 years for those players to make big impacts?

 

I'm not saying those are the only choices or possibilities, but I do think fans are pretty forgiving when hope is higher.

 

If we kept everyone but JBJ, I think our chances of making the playoffs next year are very good. If that allows us to reset, even better. That will allow Henry the luxury of spending more next year, without the higher penalties, while giving us another year to improve the farm. Yes, it will take longer to rebuild the farm that way, but with smarter, 2nd tier type contracts, the team can rebuild without necessarily being doomed to mediocrity.

 

Obviously, the farm would be replenished much quicker if we dealt away some of our players this offseason.

[Kimmi]

#bullpengames is real.

i guess we need to get used to it.....

 

I am not a fan of either bullpen games or the opener.

 

There is so much beauty in watching a starting pitcher mow down an offense for 7+ innings. Pedro Martinez. Nuff said.

[bertha]

Loving this thread, I think this is a very interesting discussion

[fxkatt]

I am not a fan of either bullpen games or the opener.

 

There is so much beauty in watching a starting pitcher mow down an offense for 7+ innings. Pedro Martinez. Nuff said.

 

Me too. BP games just don't look right. And they extend the time of the games. Maybe ortho surgeons will find a way of fixing arms to match those they had back in the good ole days of baseball, which seem to have gone extinct.

 

Of Chapman and Betances, I would prefer the latter. I like him much more and he will be considerably less expensive, given all his past woes. I'm thinking he finally has an injury and angst free year--all to our benefit.

[notin]

Bullpen games are like using a platoon for a position. It's something low budget teams do because they cannot afford the one good player who can do the job...

[moonslav59]

I was kind of surprised how well we did in BP games, especially since everybody was saying our pen sucked.

[notin]

I was kind of surprised how well we did in BP games, especially since everybody was saying our pen sucked.

 

Are you counting Brian Johnson starts as bullpen games?

[Kimmi]

Me too. BP games just don't look right. And they extend the time of the games. Maybe ortho surgeons will find a way of fixing arms to match those they had back in the good ole days of baseball, which seem to have gone extinct.

 

Of Chapman and Betances, I would prefer the latter. I like him much more and he will be considerably less expensive, given all his past woes. I'm thinking he finally has an injury and angst free year--all to our benefit.

 

I am just not a fan of either Chapman or Betances, probably because they're both Yankees. LOL Also, I think they would both be too expensive. Unless we're getting to the point where our bullpens are going to considerably overtake the starting pitcher's role, I don't agree with spending big buck on relievers.

[moonslav59]

Are you counting Brian Johnson starts as bullpen games?

 

I wasn't really thinking of his starts as pen games, but I guess we knew he'd likely be yanked after 1-3 innings.

 

Either way, we won a lot of games that our 5th starter or pen started.

[fxkatt]

I wasn't really thinking of his starts as pen games, but I guess we knew he'd likely be yanked after 1-3 innings.

 

Either way, we won a lot of games that our 5th starter or pen started.

 

That could be, but I think each of these games should be subject to a close inspection. Sometimes, you resort to this against either weak teams or for less meaningful games.

[moonslav59]

I am just not a fan of either Chapman or Betances, probably because they're both Yankees. LOL Also, I think they would both be too expensive. Unless we're getting to the point where our bullpens are going to considerably overtake the starting pitcher's role, I don't agree with spending big buck on relievers.

 

Here's a look at the biggest RP'er signings in recent years:

 

'15-'16

$7.75M x 4 Darren O'Day 177 IP/1.05 WHIP/2.80 ERA

$8.3M x 3 J Soria 190 IP/ 1.26/ 3.40

$7.3M x 3 R Madson 170 IP/ 1.02/ 2.55

$6.0M x 3 T Sipp 135 IP/ 1.32/ 3.99

$6.1M x 2 Clippard 134 IP/ 1.19/ 3.22

$6.0M x 2 Bastardo 125 IP/ 1.26/ 3.82

$5.75M x 2 C Young 212 IP/ 1.33/ 4.37 (1/2 SP'er)

 

'16-'17

$17.2M x 5 Chapman 159 IP/1.10/2.61 (2 seasons left)

$16.0M x 5 Jansen 203 IP/0.93/ 2.66 ( 2 left)

$15.5M x 4 Melancon 136 IP/1.42/ 3.70 (1 left)

$7.63M x 4 B Cecil 100 IP/1.47/ 4.86 (1 left)

 

'17-'18

$17M x 3 Wade Davis 108 IP/1.38/ 5.92 (1 yr left)

$9.0M x 3 Bryan Shaw 127 IP/1.55/ 5.61 (1 left)

$9.0M x 3 Jake McGee 93 IP/ 1.44/ 5.54 (1 left)

$10.5M x 2 B Morrow 74 IP/ 0.98/ 1.82

$9.0M x 2 T Hunter 69 IP/ 1.18/3.50

$8.5M x 2 J Nicasio 89 IP/ 1.52/ 5.34

$8.4M x 2 A Reed 56 IP/1.43/ 4.50

$8.0M x 2 P Neshek 42 IP/ 1.25/ 3.61

$14M x 1 G Holland 46 IP/ 1.62/ 4.66

 

'18-'19

$14.3M x 3 Kimbrel 21 IP/1.60/ 6.53 (2 yrs left)

$13.0M x 3 Britton 61 IP/ 1.14/ 1.91 (2)

$10M x 3 Familia 60 IP/ 1.73/ 5.70 (2)

$9.0M x 3 Ottavino 66 IP/ 1.31/ 1.90 (2)

$12.5M x 2 A Miller 55 IP/ 1.32/ 4.45 (1)

$11.5M x 2 D Robertson 7 IP/ 2.10/ 5.40 (1)

$9.0M x 2 Herrera 51 IP/ 1.62/ 6.14 (1)

$7.5M x 2 J Soria 68 IP/1.03/ 4.24 (1)

$8.5M x 1 C Allen 23 IP/ 1.91/ 6.26

[moonslav59]

That could be, but I think each of these games should be subject to a close inspection. Sometimes, you resort to this against either weak teams or for less meaningful games.

 

I'm not sure it really matters much, if the guy you are starting is likely to be yanked early. I guess one could argue a true pen game is when the starter will be yanked early, even if he is doing well.

 

Here is our W-L records with our non top 5 starters (I guess we did worse than I thought):

 

GS Pitcher team records (pitcher ERA as a starter)

8 Velazquez 5-3 6.75 (22 IP)

7 Johnson 3-4 5.09 (23 IP)

6 Cashner 1-5 8.01 (30.1)

5 Chacin 2-3 7.90 (13.2)

3 Weber 2-1 7.94 (11.1)

3 Lakins 0-3 0.00 (5.2)

2 J Smith 0-2 9.82 (7.1)

1 J Taylor 0-1 0.00 (1.0)

1 D Hern 0-1 9.00 (3 IP)

1 Poyner 0-1 0.00 (2 IP)

 

The bottom 5 were the obvious "BP games" and we went 0-8 in those starts, despiye some good efforst by some of the "starters".

 

Interesting to note that the two guys we brought in from outside the organization went 3-8 with an ERA just under 8.00.

 

The team went 8-7 in Velazquez and Johnson starts combined. (10-8 adding Weber)

 

Note: we were 7-5 in Eovaldi's 12 starts. We were 18-14 in Porcello's starts.

 

25-19 Eovaldi+ Porcello .568

 

10-8 Johnson, Velazquez & Weber) .556

 

Basically, a 1% better chance of winning with our #4 & #5 slot starters over our #6-8's.

 

 

 

[Swiharts Ghost]

What are the odds of the Redsox extending Mookie this winter ? 2 percent? 10 percent tops right ? So let's please start looking at real trade ideas and stop with the notion we keep Betts even if JDM is gone .I don't want anyone but Mike Trout at this kind of contract .Let's move on he's gone .

[moonslav59]

What are the odds of the Redsox extending Mookie this winter ? 2 percent? 10 percent tops right ? So let's please start looking at real trade ideas and stop with the notion we keep Betts even if JDM is gone .I don't want anyone but Mike Trout at this kind of contract .Let's move on he's gone .

 

Other questions:

 

Do our odds of re-signing Betts improve by keeping him around in 2020?

 

Do our odds go down on re-signing him, if we trade him this winter? Does that change by trading him at the deadline, instead?

 

What can we get for him?

 

[Tedballgame]

Trade him now for all you can get. He is not re-signing with Boston.

[Swiharts Ghost]

This .well said

[d-money]

I’m keeping the guy. This is not a place where you rebuild. They’re expected to win now. Whose gonna replace his production?

[moonslav59]

Trade him now for all you can get. He is not re-signing with Boston.

 

Re-signing or not, trading him is probably best. I love the guy. I'd give him $320/10 (counting 2020), but I doubt we'll go that high.

 

Get something for him and JD. Get what we can for JBJ. Look to maybe trade some players that are FAs after 2021 at the 2020 deadline.

 

Reset the tax.

 

Draft well. Get back to finding some top international free agents.

 

Build the farm but look to get back tp spending big after 2020 or 2021.

 

Ring time in 2021 or 2022 (2023 at the latest).