A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[notin]

He also signed Victorino to 3 years.

 

... which is not longer than 3 years...

[moonslav59]

And Logan Allen helped the Sox get Kimbrel.

 

 

The fact is, the Sox were not bad at drafting pitching talent. They were just bad at keeping it...

 

They weren't great, but yes not bad.

 

The thing is 700 is bashing Ben because we have no young pitching while praising DD for trading them all away, except D Hern and ERod.

[moonslav59]

... which is not longer than 3 years...

 

It felt like 5.

[notin]

It felt like 5.

 

He was an absolute monster than first year, especially in the post-season.

 

And hey, we traded him for the immortal Josh Rutledge...

[moonslav59]

He was an absolute monster than first year, especially in the post-season.

 

And hey, we traded him for the immortal Josh Rutledge...

 

I said, at the time of the signing, the contract was 2 years too long, but it was a great signing- bad 2 years and all.

[S5Dewey]

The Sale trade was an excellent move. But the Sale extension, maybe not. And to give it after Sale had missed almost all of the last half of the prior season with an injury does lead to a few questions.

 

Price was an elite pitcher. But a 7 year deal? He was already 31 at the time. Does anyone think he would be the same pitcher at age 38? At some point in that deal, the chances of decline - and very likely steep decline - were extremely probable. Deals like that are made for teams who want to "win now and lose later." Which is great when it is still now, but later will eventually get here...

 

I never understood Sale's extension, if only for the timing of it. I fully 'get' that Sale might have been able to sign someplace else had we not extended him but his pitching motion scares me. I'm certainly not a doctor but I had reservations about Sale when the trade was made.

 

When someone watches Sale's motion and sees the stress it puts on his entire left upper body the extension seems foolhardy. The shoulder, the elbow, the whole motion fairly screams "Problems down the road!" So why sign a guy to a contract when you can be reasonably certain that this pitcher is going to be a medical liability sooner or later?

 

It appears that Sale was extended for 2018 & 2019 with the idea that we'd worry about the remaining years when we got there. Well, they're here, a year sooner than expected.

[notin]

I never understood Sale's extension, if only for the timing of it. I fully 'get' that Sale might have been able to sign someplace else had we not extended him but his pitching motion scares me. .

 

You and every scout whoever saw him pitch...

[Nick]

You and every scout whoever saw him pitch...

 

Maybe the lesson is to be more patient. Even at budget of $208M, you can buy good talent. Avoid long term deals on pitchers.

[a700hitter]

...and Kopech & Espinoza were two of the top pitching prospects when traded, but they got hurt- you call them "nobodies." I guess there is "control over injuries" when it suits your position.

When they were traded they were prospects who were pretty far away from the majors. Ipso facto they were nobodies when traded. You don’t become someone until you do something at the MLB level.

[a700hitter]

I never understood Sale's extension, if only for the timing of it. I fully 'get' that Sale might have been able to sign someplace else had we not extended him but his pitching motion scares me. I'm certainly not a doctor but I had reservations about Sale when the trade was made.

 

When someone watches Sale's motion and sees the stress it puts on his entire left upper body the extension seems foolhardy. The shoulder, the elbow, the whole motion fairly screams "Problems down the road!" So why sign a guy to a contract when you can be reasonably certain that this pitcher is going to be a medical liability sooner or later?

 

It appears that Sale was extended for 2018 & 2019 with the idea that we'd worry about the remaining years when we got there. Well, they're here, a year sooner than expected.

The timing of the extension was very suspicious to me. I think DD got played.

[notin]

When they were traded they were prospects who were pretty far away from the majors. Ipso facto they were nobodies when traded. You don’t become someone until you do something at the MLB level.

 

Yeah that's largely Dombrowski's attitude, too. And it contributed to him getting fired at least twice...

[moonslav59]

When they were traded they were prospects who were pretty far away from the majors. Ipso facto they were nobodies when traded. You don’t become someone until you do something at the MLB level.

 

...and everybody who did something at the ML level was once a nobody.

[a700hitter]

...and everybody who did something at the ML level was once a nobody.

True. Everyone not at the major league level is a nobody. And very few nobodies become somebodies.

[Kimmi]

I'd rather we not have to go that far, but it's hard to know, if we'd have won in 2019 without going "overboard." It's easy, in hindsight, to say, we could have won without the Thornburg, Pom, Reed & Kinsler trades, so we went too far overboard, but we had pretty close to the same team for 3-4 years and only won once.

 

I've said I wouldn't have gone so far, but it worked. We won. It sucks we're paying for it now and maybe for a couple more years, but I'll take a ring every 4 years anyway we can get it.

 

Sure, I'd prefer winning every 4 years and leaving a decent future afterwards- like Theo and Ben did, but I'm super glad we won that ring last year. I'm not sure anyone can prove we win without Sale, Price, Kimbrel, Eovaldi or Pearce.

 

I honestly believe that we did not have to go to the extent that we did in order to win in 2018. There's no way to know for sure, obviously, so it's all good. The ring in 2018 made it all worth it.

[Kimmi]

I'll say it for Kimmi in her absence: Lucchino!

 

Thank you for saving me the time.

[vegasbob]

There was no need to extend Sale when DD did so. He may have been played, the doctors who may have examined him looked at him from a current condition status, not in terms of his radical motion. His problem in 2019 was different than the shoulder was in 2018, but in 2020 it may be the wrist.

Whatever his condition and abilities over the next few years, the one between his ears may be the real ????. Can he learn to pitch without relying on power? Does his stuff translate to a true pitcher changing speeds, elevation, in/out, etc.? In other words, can Chris Freakin Sale get by without Sandy Leon ?

[Kimmi]

There was no need to extend Sale when DD did so. He may have been played, the doctors who may have examined him looked at him from a current condition status, not in terms of his radical motion. His problem in 2019 was different than the shoulder was in 2018, but in 2020 it may be the wrist.

Whatever his condition and abilities over the next few years, the one between his ears may be the real ????. Can he learn to pitch without relying on power? Does his stuff translate to a true pitcher changing speeds, elevation, in/out, etc.? In other words, can Chris Freakin Sale get by without Sandy Leon ?

 

I have no problem with the timing of the Sale extension. If Sale had a great year, then walked as a free agent, we'd never hear the end of how the FO screwed that up by not extending him earlier. It's very similar to Beckett's extension. Damned if you do and damned if you don't.

[moonslav59]

I honestly believe that we did not have to go to the extent that we did in order to win in 2018. There's no way to know for sure, obviously, so it's all good. The ring in 2018 made it all worth it.

 

In hindsight, we can definitively say we could have won in 2018 without Pom, Thornburg and Reed, but that's not really fair. We could probably add the Kinsler-Buttrey trade and say, we'd still have won. Sale & Kimbrel didn't really do all that much in the playoffs, but without one of them the whole season might have gone differently.

 

I'm thinking, to win in this league, you have to build a roster that looks like "overboard," so you can handle injuries, unexpected down years or under perfromances and just the plain luck involved with the "crap shoot playoffs."

 

I do think DD went to far, but it worked, so I'm fine with what he did.

 

I also realize we now have to pay the consequences for what he did, and I'm not going to sugar coat it. It sucks, but it's worth it. The 2018 ring was wonderful. Sure, I wish the window stayed open another year or two, but it is what it is. It's not the first time I really liked a Sox team and felt they were going to win it all (or had a great chance) but ended up disappointed. It won't be the last.

 

I liked our chances in 2003, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2019.

 

I'm okay with not really like our chances much for 2020- not that I won't.

 

[oldtimer]

In hindsight, we can definitively say we could have won in 2018 without Pom, Thornburg and Reed, but that's not really fair. We could probably add the Kinsler-Buttrey trade and say, we'd still have won. Sale & Kimbrel didn't really do all that much in the playoffs, but without one of them the whole season might have gone differently.

 

I'm thinking, to win in this league, you have to build a roster that looks like "overboard," so you can handle injuries, unexpected down years or under perfromances and just the plain luck involved with the "crap shoot playoffs."

 

I do think DD went to far, but it worked, so I'm fine with what he did.

 

I also realize we now have to pay the consequences for what he did, and I'm not going to sugar coat it. It sucks, but it's worth it. The 2018 ring was wonderful. Sure, I wish the window stayed open another year or two, but it is what it is. It's not the first time I really liked a Sox team and felt they were going to win it all (or had a great chance) but ended up disappointed. It won't be the last.

 

I liked our chances in 2003, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2019.

 

I'm okay with not really like our chances much for 2020- not that I won't.

 

 

I would like to think the Sox have a vision going forward rather than just reacting to the poor results and structuring of the team by firing DD. So far, without a new GM named it looks like random moves. About all I have heard that looks like at least part of a vision is the strong indication of a reset in 2020. With our high risk starting pitching staff, it looks like the right approach but the devil is always in the details.

 

My opinion seems to line up with Moon's in general as I have understood his posts.

 

1. Reset in 2020

2. Keep as many of the best young players who will continue to make and impact in 2021 and beyond.

3. Trade or DFA players who wont help us in 2021 and beyond

4. Remain as competitive as possible under the circumstances

5. Try to trade the generous contracts or let them playout.

6. Possibly renegotiate Pedroia's contract for a lower AAV realizing he will not actually play again

7. Rework the coaching staff (being done)

8. Strengthen the farm

9. Bring young low cost players up to see if they can help. The lower cost and less frequent injury likelihood would be worth it

[jacksonianmarch]

I would like to think the Sox have a vision going forward rather than just reacting to the poor results and structuring of the team by firing DD. So far, without a new GM named it looks like random moves. About all I have heard that looks like at least part of a vision is the strong indication of a reset in 2020. With our high risk starting pitching staff, it looks like the right approach but the devil is always in the details.

 

My opinion seems to line up with Moon's in general as I have understood his posts.

 

1. Reset in 2020

2. Keep as many of the best young players who will continue to make and impact in 2021 and beyond.

3. Trade or DFA players who wont help us in 2021 and beyond

4. Remain as competitive as possible under the circumstances

5. Try to trade the generous contracts or let them playout.

6. Possibly renegotiate Pedroia's contract for a lower AAV realizing he will not actually play again

7. Rework the coaching staff (being done)

8. Strengthen the farm

9. Bring young low cost players up to see if they can help. The lower cost and less frequent injury likelihood would be worth it

 

You're in the AL East with TB and NYY. Both teams are loaded for bear, are younger, deeper, can add payroll and have far better farm systems. "Staying competitive" is a term used by marketing people who hope to get butts in seats but don't give a s*** about winning. As a Yankee fan, I begged for the Yanks to blow it up from 14-16. It took a deadline miracle for Cashman to do so. Mediocrity is punished in baseball. Your choice is to prop the window open by opening the wallet further or rebuilding. Barring a 2013 style miracle, the sox going for a "stay competitive" mode in 2020 will finish around .500 and be about 20 games out of playoff contention in the east. That blows, IMO. That might be ok for Pittsburgh, but not Boston. And in Boston, with the other three teams flying high, a .500 season is just as bad as a .400 season. By the time the summer winds down, eyes will be elsewhere and Fenway will be a snoozefest

[moonslav59]

I would like to think the Sox have a vision going forward rather than just reacting to the poor results and structuring of the team by firing DD. So far, without a new GM named it looks like random moves. About all I have heard that looks like at least part of a vision is the strong indication of a reset in 2020. With our high risk starting pitching staff, it looks like the right approach but the devil is always in the details.

 

My opinion seems to line up with Moon's in general as I have understood his posts.

 

1. Reset in 2020

2. Keep as many of the best young players who will continue to make and impact in 2021 and beyond.

3. Trade or DFA players who wont help us in 2021 and beyond

4. Remain as competitive as possible under the circumstances

5. Try to trade the generous contracts or let them playout.

6. Possibly renegotiate Pedroia's contract for a lower AAV realizing he will not actually play again

7. Rework the coaching staff (being done)

8. Strengthen the farm

9. Bring young low cost players up to see if they can help. The lower cost and less frequent injury likelihood would be worth it

 

Well said.

 

I will say, I do not think we should trade guys like Barnes and Beni, who just came off somewhat down years. If Barnes looks good to start 2020, maybe look to get something nice for him in July. Beni is under team control through 2022, so he's different, but I might still look to trade him next summer, if the offer fits our needs.

 

Sell high candidates might be Walden & Taylor (still pre-arb), but I'm fine with keeping both for 2021 and beyond.

 

Stretching out Pedey's deal might be a good idea, but if we want to start spending big after 2020, it might be best to just bite the bullet and get out from under his cost all at once- or renegotiate it after 2020.

[Bellhorn04]

I will say, I do not think we should trade guys like Barnes and Beni, who just came off somewhat down years. If Barnes looks good to start 2020, maybe look to get something nice for him in July. Beni is under team control through 2022, so he's different, but I might still look to trade him next summer, if the offer fits our needs.

 

Doesn't it seem like outfield will BE A NEED, with JBJ and Mookie both possibly gone?

[moonslav59]

You're in the AL East with TB and NYY. Both teams are loaded for bear, are younger, deeper, can add payroll and have far better farm systems. "Staying competitive" is a term used by marketing people who hope to get butts in seats but don't give a s*** about winning. As a Yankee fan, I begged for the Yanks to blow it up from 14-16. It took a deadline miracle for Cashman to do so. Mediocrity is punished in baseball. Your choice is to prop the window open by opening the wallet further or rebuilding. Barring a 2013 style miracle, the sox going for a "stay competitive" mode in 2020 will finish around .500 and be about 20 games out of playoff contention in the east. That blows, IMO. That might be ok for Pittsburgh, but not Boston. And in Boston, with the other three teams flying high, a .500 season is just as bad as a .400 season. By the time the summer winds down, eyes will be elsewhere and Fenway will be a snoozefest

 

Attendance went down about 100,000 this year, and the ring year, 2018, was down from 2017. (We also missed 2 home games for going to London.)

 

Our attendance in 2012, 2014 and 2015 was nearly identical to 2013.

 

Sox fans will support the team. Most tickets are bought way before the season starts or is half over.

 

I'm not sure fans need to think we have a chance at a ring every year, but they want to see some sort of excitement (offense?) or a decent product, as long as there is a hope we are getting better. Seeing some fresh, young faces may not be all that bad.

 

I'm also not so sure a JBJ-less Sox team will finish 20 out next year. Now, if we trade JD, and some pitchers have surgery, then yes-maybe.

 

I may be different from most fans, but I'd rather see a shorter period of rebuilding, even if it means having an awful 2020 season. I don't want us to suck, but if we make some good trades for some top young talent, my optimism will overpower my dislike for seeing us lose a lot of games in 2020. If it takes 2 years to get back to a top 4-6 team, I'm okay with that, too.

 

I do agree with you on the mediocrity thing. trying to stay mediocre, while rebuilding, might just extend the time it takes to get back to the top.

[harmony]

I do agree with you on the mediocrity thing. trying to stay mediocre, while rebuilding, might just extend the time it takes to get back to the top.

Coming off an 89-win season in 2018, the Seattle Mariners traded away reigning All Stars Edwin Diaz and Jean Segura, plus James Paxton and Mike Zunino, while letting All Star Nelson Cruz enter free agency.

 

The jury remains out after a 94-loss season, but the Mariners apparently were not content with the pending mediocrity.

[OH FOY]

See if Jim Hickey is available as Pitching Coach.

[notin]

6. Possibly renegotiate Pedroia's contract for a lower AAV realizing he will not actually play again

 

I don't think the CBA would allow this. It has a specific clause about trying to circumvent the luxury tax with contracts and negotiations. And if the plan is to give him the same money over more years, it's probably not even a wise move. Just leave it as is and let it expire as soon as possible rather than making it an issue over the next 10 or whatever seasons...

[moonslav59]

I don't think the CBA would allow this. It has a specific clause about trying to circumvent the luxury tax with contracts and negotiations. And if the plan is to give him the same money over more years, it's probably not even a wise move. Just leave it as is and let it expire as soon as possible rather than making it an issue over the next 10 or whatever seasons...

 

It would only matter, if we try hard to win it all while we reset. (I can't see that being very realistic.)

[vegasbob]

I don't think the CBA would allow this. It has a specific clause about trying to circumvent the luxury tax with contracts and negotiations. And if the plan is to give him the same money over more years, it's probably not even a wise move. Just leave it as is and let it expire as soon as possible rather than making it an issue over the next 10 or whatever seasons...

 

We talk about a lot of dead money deals , but who would have thought that the 8 year contract with dirt dog Laser Show would result in effectively 4 years ('18/'19/'20/'21) of $55 million in dead money. Thank you, Mr. Padre Machado.

[moonslav59]

We talk about a lot of dead money deals , but who would have thought that the 8 year contract with dirt dog Laser Show would result in effectively 4 years ('18/'19/'20/'21) of $55 million in dead money. Thank you, Mr. Padre Machado.

 

Really does suck. One moment in history whacks off 4 years.

[mvp 78]

Really does suck. One moment in history whacks off 4 years.

 

Sounds like High School.