A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[moonslav59]

That was just the happenstance of the timing.

 

Put it in context with the deals received by other established, elite closers. Not just Chapman, Jansen, and Davis which came after, but Papelbon's 4 year, 50 million deal which came after 2012.

 

Yes, but that was after not at the time. I've said any times the deal looks better after the closer prices skyrocketed

[oldtimer]

The latest talk has Andrew Friedman as a target for our GM job. He did a great job with the Dodgers and his contract is up leaving the possibility of the Sox getting him realistic. Only about 42 years old so we shall see.

[Kimmi]

In hindsight, we can definitively say we could have won in 2018 without Pom, Thornburg and Reed, but that's not really fair. We could probably add the Kinsler-Buttrey trade and say, we'd still have won. Sale & Kimbrel didn't really do all that much in the playoffs, but without one of them the whole season might have gone differently.

 

I'm thinking, to win in this league, you have to build a roster that looks like "overboard," so you can handle injuries, unexpected down years or under perfromances and just the plain luck involved with the "crap shoot playoffs."

 

I do think DD went to far, but it worked, so I'm fine with what he did.

 

I also realize we now have to pay the consequences for what he did, and I'm not going to sugar coat it. It sucks, but it's worth it. The 2018 ring was wonderful. Sure, I wish the window stayed open another year or two, but it is what it is. It's not the first time I really liked a Sox team and felt they were going to win it all (or had a great chance) but ended up disappointed. It won't be the last.

 

I liked our chances in 2003, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2019.

 

I'm okay with not really like our chances much for 2020- not that I won't.

 

 

The bottom line for me is that I want a GM who is going to consider the long term goals while winning in the short term. It can be done.

 

Maybe we don't win a ring in 2018. OTOH, we might have won 2 rings in the past 3 years with some different moves.

[Kimmi]

Coming off an 89-win season in 2018, the Seattle Mariners traded away reigning All Stars Edwin Diaz and Jean Segura, plus James Paxton and Mike Zunino, while letting All Star Nelson Cruz enter free agency.

 

The jury remains out after a 94-loss season, but the Mariners apparently were not content with the pending mediocrity.

 

Who's talking about pending mediocrity? Jacko?

[Kimmi]

Kimbrel was the best bullpen acquisition in team history.

 

DD may have gone overboard with what he gave up, but the contract itself was a gem.

 

Best acquisition in what regard? Best value? No way. I get what you're trying to say about his contract, but you cannot look at that contract in a vacuum.

[Kimmi]

No, it was a gem. A 3 year contract for one of the best closers in history, and only the first 2 years, and $24 million, was guaranteed?

 

Come on, that's a gem all the way.

 

Nope.

[moonslav59]

The bottom line for me is that I want a GM who is going to consider the long term goals while winning in the short term. It can be done.

 

 

Of course, that's a great plan, but to get there (for the Sox), we may need to have a year or two of mediocrity or worse, hence the whole idea of "the cliff."

Edited October 11, 2019 by moonslav59

[oldtimer]

The bottom line for me is that I want a GM who is going to consider the long term goals while winning in the short term. It can be done.

 

Maybe we don't win a ring in 2018. OTOH, we might have won 2 rings in the past 3 years with some different moves.

 

Now things have to be undone but I still think we should maintain as much competitiveness as possible while recovering from the hole that DD put the club into. The Sox may have waited to select a new GM until it became clear how available the Dodgers and/or Minnesota execs will be.

[moonslav59]

Now things have to be undone but I still think we should maintain as much competitiveness as possible while recovering from the hole that DD put the club into. The Sox may have waited to select a new GM until it became clear how available the Dodgers and/or Minnesota execs will be.

 

It's a tough balancing act.

 

If we want to be stronger for 2021 or 2022, it would likely help to trade away several or all players that are under team control for just 1-2 years. If we want tom compete for the next 1-2 years, we should keep several or all players that will help in the next 1-2 years.

 

Playing it "in between" might be the worst choice of all.

 

One plan could be to deal every player with 1-2 years of team control, which would get us way under the tax line and help stock the farm or roster with younger players with more years of team control, then, sign a bunch of mid level, short term FAs to help us stay semi-competitive for the next year or two. The only way this hurts the extended future is that it lowers the draft picks a few notches, but the fam

ns might enjoy it more. We'd still have a pretty solid core or players like Bogey, Devers, Beni, some injury & aging SP'ers and a few prospects showing what they got. We could even make a strong run at Betts after 2020, or use the money to sign other higher level players to make a more serious run in 2021 or 2022 and beyond.

 

FAs after 2020:

Betts

JBJ (if still here after this winter)

Workman

Wright

Leon

 

FAs after 2021:

ERod

Barnes

Hembree

Pedey

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, but that was after not at the time. I've said any times the deal looks better after the closer prices skyrocketed

 

Put it this way:

 

If Papelbon could get 4 years @ 12.5 = 50 after 2012, what would Kimbrel have gotten on the open market after 2015?

 

I think it's very reasonable to estimate he would have gotten at least 4 years @ 15 = 60. That's still 20 and 26 mill less than Jansen and Chapman got the following year.

[notin]

Put it this way:

 

If Papelbon could get 4 years @ 12.5 = 50 after 2012, what would Kimbrel have gotten on the open market after 2015?

 

I think it's very reasonable to estimate he would have gotten at least 4 years @ 15 = 60. That's still 20 and 26 mill less than Jansen and Chapman got the following year.

 

And what was the value of the 3 quality prospects traded for him?

[Bellhorn04]

And what was the value of the 3 quality prospects traded for him?

 

notin, I have said over and over, I'm not disputing that part. All I have been saying is that the contract, taken on its own, was a favorable one.

[moonslav59]

notin, I have said over and over, I'm not disputing that part. All I have been saying is that the contract, taken on its own, was a favorable one.

 

It became one and was in hindsight, but not really at the time of the trade. It wasn't bad, but it was near the FA cost, per year.

 

At the time, I argued it was like we signed him at top dollar and gave up 4 prospect as well- 2 of which were blue chippers and the throw-in, Allen was very promising. Once the closer cost sky rocketed, that part of the deal became a plus. (Even still,many teams had non FA closer who were making way less.)

[Bellhorn04]

It became one and was in hindsight, but not really at the time of the trade. It wasn't bad, but it was near the FA cost, per year.

 

At the time, I argued it was like we signed him at top dollar and gave up 4 prospect as well- 2 of which were blue chippers and the throw-in, Allen was very promising. Once the closer cost sky rocketed, that part of the deal became a plus. (Even still,many teams had non FA closer who were making way less.)

 

Yes, non FA's tend to be cheaper...

[notin]

notin, I have said over and over, I'm not disputing that part. All I have been saying is that the contract, taken on its own, was a favorable one.

 

Ok, but I have always had the viewpoint that that was just part of the equation...

[Bellhorn04]

I hate that we look at trades/acquisition in VACUUM.

 

Back to back last place finishes. Three last place finishes in 4 years. I'm told by Henry to turn the team around. What the f*** did you want me to do?

 

I go out and sign best starting pitcher available. Maybe an overpay but so what. I'm not looking at year 2019 at the time.

 

I need a closer. I pay for top closer at the time, in money and in players. Beginning of rebuild for 2018 championship.

 

Folks, we can't have it both ways.

 

We proceed to win three straight Division titles, including total dominance in 2018.

 

Our starting pitching was suppose to be one of the best in 2019. It's DD's fault that they all went through injury plague season?

 

If no one wants to take the job (because it's so hard to win in Boston, what a bunch of crap), I'll do it for free. Good f***ing grief. Bunch of whinny asses.

 

Post of the Day.

[moonslav59]

I agree with Nick's post for the most part, but it's not like DD didn't know about injury issues with the newly extended Sale, the recently signed Eovaldi, and the aging vet Price.

 

I don't blame DD for 2019. I thought we'd win over 100 games.

 

He brought us 3 straight division titles and a ring. That's A-okay in my book.

 

The state of our farm and future is the only real criticism I have on DD.

 

Theo got us rings and left the farm in pretty good shape. Ben got us a ring and left the farm in great shape. DD is the only one who didn't "have it both ways."

[Bellhorn04]

Theo got us rings and left the farm in pretty good shape. Ben got us a ring and left the farm in great shape. DD is the only one who didn't "have it both ways."

 

And DD gets the prize for playoff appearances.

 

DD 3/4 .750

Theo 6/9 .667

Ben 1/4 .250

[moonslav59]

And DD gets the prize for playoff appearances.

 

DD 3/4 .750

Theo 6/9 .667

Ben 1/4 .250

 

He deserves that prize, and one reason he won that price was that he didn't try to "have it both ways."

 

He deliberately mortgaged the farm for those 3 playoff appearances.

 

The run was great. It was fantastic. I'm thankful to DD for the ride. It's time, now, to pay the price, which I'm fine with.

 

I won't sugar coat it. I won't deny it. I won't enjoy it. I hope it will be short-lived.

 

DD is not the right GM for what comes next and for what needs to be done going forward. I'm thankful to Henry for recognizing that and not waiting too long to make the needed change at the top.

 

I know I may come across like I have hard feelings towards DD, and that I am bashing him, but I honestly don't feel that way. I was fine with the trade-off he made when he did it. I may think he went a bit too far, but nobody agrees with everything anybody else does.

 

 

[jacksonianmarch]

He deserves that prize, and one reason he won that price was that he didn't try to "have it both ways."

 

He deliberately mortgaged the farm for those 3 playoff appearances.

 

The run was great. It was fantastic. I'm thankful to DD for the ride. It's time, now, to pay the price, which I'm fine with.

 

I won't sugar coat it. I won't deny it. I won't enjoy it. I hope it will be short-lived.

 

DD is not the right GM for what comes next and for what needs to be done going forward. I'm thankful to Henry for recognizing that and not waiting too long to make the needed change at the top.

 

I know I may come across like I have hard feelings towards DD, and that I am bashing him, but I honestly don't feel that way. I was fine with the trade-off he made when he did it. I may think he went a bit too far, but nobody agrees with everything anybody else does.

 

 

 

The day he was hired, everyone knew what he was going to do. There was no question. Henry even publicly stated that the goal was to win immediately. He did. Whether you like what he did or didn't do, you cannot argue with the results. He took a team with a good farm and a last place finish into 3 straight ALE titles and a WS title. Henry knew what was coming. Only the blindest of sox fans couldn't see what was coming. The party was good for you guys. But it's over. Turn off the lights. Henry did the right thing in firing him now. The rebuild is here

[moonslav59]

I'm just hoping the rebuild is quick. I realize the best chance to make it quick is to deal anyone of value that is not part of the longer term plan, but it's hard to think of such a radical clean out of players I've come to enjoy watching.

[Nick]

I'm just hoping the rebuild is quick. I realize the best chance to make it quick is to deal anyone of value that is not part of the longer term plan, but it's hard to think of such a radical clean out of players I've come to enjoy watching.

 

It is sad to think we're in a 'rebuild' mode with starting pitchers with at least 3 more years of team control with Price, Sale and Eovaldi along with 2 more years of E. Rod. It looks more like another playoff run(s).

 

I know Kimmi agrees.

[jacksonianmarch]

I'm just hoping the rebuild is quick. I realize the best chance to make it quick is to deal anyone of value that is not part of the longer term plan, but it's hard to think of such a radical clean out of players I've come to enjoy watching.

 

There is a way to make it quick, but it will be painful. I doubt JH is willing to do that. Yeah, I could see Betts and JD going elsewhere, but he could deal Beni, ERod and others to speed up the process

[moonslav59]

There is a way to make it quick, but it will be painful. I doubt JH is willing to do that. Yeah, I could see Betts and JD going elsewhere, but he could deal Beni, ERod and others to speed up the process

 

I'm sure you hope it won't be quick, but when you have an owner willing to spend like ours does, I'm thinking it might be a lot quicker than you think.

 

I can certainly see Betts and JD trades. I could see us trying to re-sign Betts, but who knows.

 

Trading players that are FAs after 2021 (namely ERod & Workman) makes sense, too, unless we extend them or plan to.

 

Beni has 3 years left, but I like him the least out of JD, Betts & ERod.

 

I think you might be surprised how quickly we are back to being highly competitive, but the next GM will have to do a lot of things just right.

 

I will also add that teams have been able to rebuild without massive fire sales.

[jacksonianmarch]

I'm sure you hope it won't be quick, but when you have an owner willing to spend like ours does, I'm thinking it might be a lot quicker than you think.

 

I can certainly see Betts and JD trades. I could see us trying to re-sign Betts, but who knows.

 

Trading players that are FAs after 2021 (namely ERod & Workman) makes sense, too, unless we extend them or plan to.

 

Beni has 3 years left, but I like him the least out of JD, Betts & ERod.

 

I think you might be surprised how quickly we are back to being highly competitive, but the next GM will have to do a lot of things just right.

 

I will also add that teams have been able to rebuild without massive fire sales.

 

Yes, Henry will spend. But the thing that is different this time around is the amount of money on the books and for how long it's there. This is VERY similar to the Yanks fall after 2012. We had a 4 year window after breaking open the bank for 2009, except we won our title in the first season. The window snapped shut when Jeter's ankle went snap. But we had so much money on the books that we were stuck with the corpses on the roster. While we stayed competitive and even got smoked in a WC game, the team wasn't really all that competitive while Tex and Arod and CC played out their massive contracts while providing less than elite value. We had a terrible farm. We watched the face of our franchise to free agency during that run in Cano. But we built the farm, refused to deal off assets and built this juggernaut. I hated 13-16. But it took 4 years for big contracts to expire and for our farm to replenish. Then it took Cashman's master stroke in 2016 and beyond to add to the team and build a new core

[moonslav59]

Yes, Henry will spend. But the thing that is different this time around is the amount of money on the books and for how long it's there. This is VERY similar to the Yanks fall after 2012. We had a 4 year window after breaking open the bank for 2009, except we won our title in the first season. The window snapped shut when Jeter's ankle went snap. But we had so much money on the books that we were stuck with the corpses on the roster. While we stayed competitive and even got smoked in a WC game, the team wasn't really all that competitive while Tex and Arod and CC played out their massive contracts while providing less than elite value. We had a terrible farm. We watched the face of our franchise to free agency during that run in Cano. But we built the farm, refused to deal off assets and built this juggernaut. I hated 13-16. But it took 4 years for big contracts to expire and for our farm to replenish. Then it took Cashman's master stroke in 2016 and beyond to add to the team and build a new core

 

13-16 was 4 years.

 

Not all our longer term contracts are sunken costs, although I know you see them that way. Sale may have surgery one year, but he can still give us a big boost in more years than not. Pedey has 2 years left.

 

Price could be a big albatross, but it's 3 years not 4.

 

Eovaldi has 3 not 4 left and may give us a healthy 2 years somewhere.

 

Bogey's deal is a plus.

 

JD will likely be gone- one way or another. Without JD, we have about $93M on the books for 2022 (not counting arbs). That's just 2 years from now.

 

I'm hopeful, with some smart moves, we might be pretty good by 2021, but I do not think 2022 is a stretch.

 

You keep using the Yankees rebuild model, like it is the only one, but I'll play along. One, you guys never sucked from 2013-2016, yet you keep saying mediocrity is a killer. You guys rebuilt while be mediocre for 4 years (84-87 wins all 4 years), so you're wrong there right off the bat. Two, in 2013, you had ARod on the books for 5 more years. Our longest is Bogey. You had CC & Tex or 4 years. We have Sale for 5 & Eovaldi for 3. After 2013, you didn't go into rebuild mode, you signed Tanaka & Ellsbury for 7 year deals along with McCann for 4 years and Beltran for 2. Please don't make it sound like you guys were "rebuilding" for 4 years. You signed 4 QO FAs that winter! You are making me literally LOL. You guys even extended Gardner for 4 years soon afterwards. Your rebuild did not start after 2013.

 

So, what did you guys do the next winter? Signed Headley and Miller to 4 year deals. Your rebuild did not start after 2014.

 

Come on! You guys spent over $217M in 2015 and 2016.

 

You guys rebuilt be having a fire sale and spending big. It didn't take you 4 years to rebuild. It took you 2-3 years to figure out you needed to sell and 1-2 years to rebuild. Plus, you haven't made it back to the top just yet.

Edited October 13, 2019 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

For argument's sake, let's say we trade JD and Betts and then sign Betts after 2020. Going into 2021, we'll be looking at this:

 

Years remaining after 2020

6+ Betts

6 Bogey

4 Sale

2 Price

2 Eovaldi

1 Pedey

1 Vaz (w option for 1 more)

 

ARBs for 2021

ERod 4 of 4

Barnes 3 of 3

Hembree 3 of 3

Beni 2 of 3

Devers 1 of 3

[cp176]

It is sad to think we're in a 'rebuild' mode with starting pitchers with at least 3 more years of team control with Price, Sale and Eovaldi along with 2 more years of E. Rod. It looks more like another playoff run(s).

 

I know Kimmi agrees.

 

I would love to see our starting pitchers come to camp in the spring all in great shape and ready to roll. We would once again be competing for the post season rush. Not to mention the fact that our new GM would get all of the credit for not breaking up a quality rotation.

[oldtimer]

There is a way to make it quick, but it will be painful. I doubt JH is willing to do that. Yeah, I could see Betts and JD going elsewhere, but he could deal Beni, ERod and others to speed up the process

 

Thats what a Yankee supporter would like the Sox to do. Get rid of their best assets in hopes of finding better to rebuild with. I think it would be folly to lose the best young players and start with a fresh piece of paper.

[jacksonianmarch]

13-16 was 4 years.

 

Not all our longer term contracts are sunken costs, although I know you see them that way. Sale may have surgery one year, but he can still give us a big boost in more years than not. Pedey has 2 years left.

 

Price could be a big albatross, but it's 3 years not 4.

 

Eovaldi has 3 not 4 left and may give us a healthy 2 years somewhere.

 

Bogey's deal is a plus.

 

JD will likely be gone- one way or another. Without JD, we have about $93M on the books for 2022 (not counting arbs). That's just 2 years from now.

 

I'm hopeful, with some smart moves, we might be pretty good by 2021, but I do not think 2022 is a stretch.

 

You keep using the Yankees rebuild model, like it is the only one, but I'll play along. One, you guys never sucked from 2013-2016, yet you keep saying mediocrity is a killer. You guys rebuilt while be mediocre for 4 years (84-87 wins all 4 years), so you're wrong there right off the bat. Two, in 2013, you had ARod on the books for 5 more years. Our longest is Bogey. You had CC & Tex or 4 years. We have Sale for 5 & Eovaldi for 3. After 2013, you didn't go into rebuild mode, you signed Tanaka & Ellsbury for 7 year deals along with McCann for 4 years and Beltran for 2. Please don't make it sound like you guys were "rebuilding" for 4 years. You signed 4 QO FAs that winter! You are making me literally LOL. You guys even extended Gardner for 4 years soon afterwards. Your rebuild did not start after 2013.

 

So, what did you guys do the next winter? Signed Headley and Miller to 4 year deals. Your rebuild did not start after 2014.

 

Come on! You guys spent over $217M in 2015 and 2016.

 

You guys rebuilt be having a fire sale and spending big. It didn't take you 4 years to rebuild. It took you 2-3 years to figure out you needed to sell and 1-2 years to rebuild. Plus, you haven't made it back to the top just yet.

 

We kept adding ancillary pieces to stay relevant, but we didn’t really jump in the standings until the kids graduated and took on huge roles. It took from 13-16 to grow the farm. We drafted Judge in 13. We signed Sanchez in 11. Sevy was around that time. We drafted JMont in 14. We dealt for Hicks by using JR Murphy. We dealt for Didi by sending off Greene. We got Torres by dealing off Chap then resigned him. We dealt off Miller and got Sheffield who we flipped for Paxton. We dealt off Beltran for Tate who we flipped for Britton. We dealt off Nova for Polo who we paired with Rutherford in the big CWS deal that brought us KRob and Kahnle. We dealt off McCann for Abreu and Guzman. Guzman was the centerpiece for Stanton.

 

The fact is, we didn’t become a back to back 100 win team by spending. We became a back to back 100 win team by dismantling in 16 while also grooming the #2 farm system in baseball. We then used that farm system to build a team that’s won the second most regular season games in baseball over the last three seasons and is very much arrow up in terms of future projections. That we didn’t end up below .500 from 13-16 was due to the additions on the big league end.