Who’s to blame...

[illinoisredsox]

Here's a look at the top 18 SP'ers by WAR since 2003. Notice how almost every one had a down season or two, usually around age 30-32, but then bounced back to greatness or near greatness afterwards.

 

We like to think pitchers over 30 all decline, but many of the greats, and Sale is a great one, actually do batter after that one to two "off years" around 29-32 years old. Have a look...

 

ERA+

1) Verlander

136 ages 26-30

85 age 31

142 ages 32-36 Better than before

 

2) Kershaw

179 ages 23-29

145 ages 30-31

??? ages 32>>>

 

3) Sabathia

140 ages 25-31

83 ages 32-34

115 ages 35-37 Not as good as before but very good

 

4) Greinke

132 ages 23-31

102 age 32

140 ages 33-35 Better than before

 

5) Scherzer

144 age 28

123 age 29

160 age 30-34 Better than before

 

6) Felix H

141 ages 23-28

92 ages 29-33

(Kept getting worse and worse)

 

7) Halladay

146 ages 24-29

121 age 30

160 ages 31-34 Better than before

 

8) C Hamels

134 ages 26-28

104 age 29

128 ages 30-35 (130 ages 30-32) Close to the same as before

 

9) Cliff Lee

167 age 29

132 ages 30-31

138 ages 32-24 Not as good as before but still excellent

 

10) Lester

135 ages 24-27

97 ages 28-29

144 ages 30-32 Better than before

 

11) C Sale

144 ages 21-29

103 age 30

??? ages 31>>>

 

12) Buehrle

131 ages 25-26

95 age 27

117 ages 28-33

99 age 34

110 ages 35-36

(2 examples of bouncing back)

 

13) Peavy

131 ages 23-28

90 ages 29-30

109 ages 31-34 (110 ages 31-33) Not as good as before but very good

 

14) Oswalt

143 ages 23-29

110 ages 30-31

126 ages 32-33 (145 age 32) Very good afterwards

 

15) J Santana

161 ages 23-27

129 age 28

143 ages 29-31 Not as good but still excellent

 

16) D Price

130 ages 24-29

112 age 30

127 ages 31-32 (111 at age 33) Still very good

 

17) J Lackey

127 ages 26-30

82 ages 31-33 (including missed season)

120 ages 34-37 Very close to as good as before and still excellent

 

18) D Haren

122 ages 24-30

85 ages 31-33

106 age 34 Only one good year after dip.

 

Looking at these histories, I see no reason to think Sale is toast. Many great pitchers dipped and got even better afterwards. Many dipped and got back to a very good level. A couple dipped and got back to decency- maybe for just a short time. A couple the jury is still out. Only King Felix declined and kept declining.

 

 

While the history looks good on most of these, one concern I would have is most if not all of them were much stockier than Sale. Most were 210 lbs plus with a couple topping 240. Sale is what, 6’6” and 180 soaking wet? Most of those guys used their legs, Sale is much more whip arm. I hope you’re right, but it does give me some pause.

[jung]

While the history looks good on most of these, one concern I would have is most if not all of them were much stockier than Sale. Most were 210 lbs plus with a couple topping 240. Sale is what, 6’6” and 180 soaking wet? Most of those guys used their legs, Sale is much more whip arm. I hope you’re right, but it does give me some pause.

 

I don't think Sale is toast either. But paying top dollar for transition years into a blind alley simply does not make much sense. Doing it twice (Price, Sale) and possibly thrice (Nate in an overpay) makes even less sense. Nate at $17 per was a mistake. Extending Sale when DD did it was a sinful mistake. Simply no reason to have done it when he did as Sale was already showing signs of excess wear.

[jad]

I don't even know what that means. But if its supposed to mean that other teams have better pitching than the Sox, some do and some don't. But the general level of pitching quality in MLB has fallen to the lowest level of garbage I have seen in 60 years of watching this game. It is trash....across the board with very Very VERY few exceptions.

 

It was in reply to an earlier post, suggesting that the reason the RS have had such a rough season, despite their hitting being tops in the league, was because of the ball.

[moonslav59]

While the history looks good on most of these, one concern I would have is most if not all of them were much stockier than Sale. Most were 210 lbs plus with a couple topping 240. Sale is what, 6’6” and 180 soaking wet? Most of those guys used their legs, Sale is much more whip arm. I hope you’re right, but it does give me some pause.

 

I have grave concerns, and your points are well taken. I may be more hopeful than some, because I feel Sale has the mental make up to get back to excellence.

[notin]

That would explain it if other teams were not playing w/ the same ball.

 

 

They are, and pitching is worse across the board. But the Sox offense doesn’t appear as dazed as their pitching because they’re facing a baseball that’s more like a racquetball...

[dannycater]

Too many guys have fallen apart-Cashner, Price, and even EROD has slipped a bit of late. Sale has been consistently poor. It's over but will always be a mind-scratcher that so many really good SPs all collectively failed for so long a period of time. It's almost inconceivable!

[Thunder]

Me. I'm to blame. I'm the reason why we suck

[notin]

Me. I'm to blame. I'm the reason why we suck

 

 

We know that. We meant the reason besides you...

[Thunder]

We know that. We meant the reason besides you...

 

The economy, the weather, America's youth, new traffic patterns in Boston. Any other ideas?

[notin]

The economy, the weather, America's youth, new traffic patterns in Boston. Any other ideas?

 

Stop trying to divert your blame...

[oldtimer]

Too many guys have fallen apart-Cashner, Price, and even EROD has slipped a bit of late. Sale has been consistently poor. It's over but will always be a mind-scratcher that so many really good SPs all collectively failed for so long a period of time. It's almost inconceivable!

 

I see the Price is temporarily shutdown with a cyst on his wrist. Hey, it rhymes.

[Slasher9]

I see the Price is temporarily shutdown with a cyst on his wrist. Hey, it rhymes.

 

Fortnite season 10 just started.....

[moonslav59]

Sale is difficult, IMO, because he got by on absolutely wicked stuff. While I doubt he’s as bad as his ERA is this year, he won’t get to the dizzying heights he was at when he had his stuff. I foresee a CC style return once he embraces his lost velocity and sits on the edges of the zone. But ERA+ only tells you so much. Sale was a bulldog workhorse prior to last season. Those days are over. Interesting that you used ERA+. I wonder if the same would hold true if you used WAR?

 

So, according to one radar gun, Sale hit 98 today and 95, 96 and 97 a few times.

 

Does this change you outlook?

 

Did other guys on my list NOT have "wicked stuff" before their off year(s) and return to grace?

 

That list showed 4 of the top 6 pitchers on my list that have pitched after age 31 (Kershaw not counted) actually had better numbers after their "off year or two".

 

I'm not saying it's a slam dunk, and we have no reason to be concerned, but certainly there is a significant chance Sale gets back into the same form as before this year.

 

Out of the 18 on my list, Sale & Kershaw have yet to show the results after an off year or two. The leave 16.

 

5 did better after the off year(s) than before!

1 did about the same (Hamels at 128 for 6 years afterwards)

1 did worse (Felix)

 

The other 8 did not do as well, but they put up these numbers:

144 for 3 years Jon Lester

143 for 3 years J Santana

138 for 3 years Cliff Lee

127 for 2 years Price

126 for 2 years Oswalt

120 for 4 years Lackey

117 for 6 years Buehrle

115 for 3 years Sabathia

109 for 4 years J Peavy

106 for 1 year Haren (could be considered a failure)

 

14 of the top 15 on this adjusted list (no Kershaw or Sale) had ERA+ of 115+ (most for 3+ years) after their down stretch.

11 of 15 at 126 or more, which is ace material not middle rotation material. Some might have called Lackey's 120 for 4 years as ace material, making it 12 out of 15.

Buehrle, Peavy and Sabathia could easily be called solid #2's or 3's.

 

 

 

[jacksonianmarch]

It doesn’t change my outlook at all. If anything, it confirms it. When he’s got his stuff, he’s dominant. But the days he has his stuff are few and far between. As he ages, those days become rare then non-existant.

 

I’m also wondering about their WAR rather than ERA+

[moonslav59]

It doesn’t change my outlook at all. If anything, it confirms it. When he’s got his stuff, he’s dominant. But the days he has his stuff are few and far between. As he ages, those days become rare then non-existant.

 

I’m also wondering about their WAR rather than ERA+

 

What makes you think he can't regain consistent dominance like many of the other greats?

 

Some of them didn't ever have the "wicked stuff" Sale had and still shows he has, at times.

 

Some never threw 98 mph after their down season(s).

 

If you're wondering about the WAR, look it up and get back to me.

 

This might help:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=160&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2003&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=30,58&filter=&players=0&startdate=&enddate=

 

The pitchers on that list are on that list not because of smoke and mirror stats.

 

The vast majority had multiple great seasons after their bad or down stretch.

Edited August 9, 2019 by moonslav59

[jacksonianmarch]

Sale was dominant and durable. The softer tossers can be effective, but typically don’t log big innings and are typically at risk for being shelled. Sale, at his peak, rarely got shelled. CC at his peak, rarely got shelled. But post transition CC is effective, but not dominant and not durable or an innings eater. Sale may transition to a guy long term who can give you 170IP with an ERA at or below 4. That’s still good. But it’s not Chris Sale. Get what I mean?

[notin]

It doesn’t change my outlook at all. If anything, it confirms it. When he’s got his stuff, he’s dominant. But the days he has his stuff are few and far between. As he ages, those days become rare then non-existant.

 

I’m also wondering about their WAR rather than ERA+

 

I wonder when you’ll realize every time you tell us how Sale is done, every time you get excited over his “death nail” contract, every time you predict the harbinger that is his future... Luis Severino has another setback.

 

Did you just hear that? That little “thwack” noise off in the distance? Sounded like tendon snapping...

[jacksonianmarch]

We haven’t had our ace all season and we’re 17 games up on you guys. How’s third place?

[moonslav59]

Sale was dominant and durable. The softer tossers can be effective, but typically don’t log big innings and are typically at risk for being shelled. Sale, at his peak, rarely got shelled. CC at his peak, rarely got shelled. But post transition CC is effective, but not dominant and not durable or an innings eater. Sale may transition to a guy long term who can give you 170IP with an ERA at or below 4. That’s still good. But it’s not Chris Sale. Get what I mean?

 

CC was near the bottom of the list of the top 15 starters on my list.

 

Felix

 

Peavy

 

maybe Buehrle before CC.

 

One might think a guy like Buehrle had a better chance of recovering from a bad stretch.

 

Many on the list had nasty stuff before their bad season(s). Some had nasty stuff afterwards- some had to almost completely re-invent themselves (like CC).

 

Just curious, did CC have as nasty stuff as Sale before his decline?

 

Verlander?

Halladay?

Scherzer?

Santana?

Greinke?

Lee?

Oswalt?

 

[notin]

We haven’t had our ace all season and we’re 17 games up on you guys. How’s third place?

 

It’s not so bad when you can still remember some rings. Plural...

[jacksonianmarch]

CC was near the bottom of the list of the top 15 starters on my list.

 

Felix

 

Peavy

 

maybe Buehrle before CC.

 

One might think a guy like Buehrle had a better chance of recovering from a bad stretch.

 

Many on the list had nasty stuff before their bad season(s). Some had nasty stuff afterwards- some had to almost completely re-invent themselves (like CC).

 

Just curious, did CC have as nasty stuff as Sale before his decline?

 

Verlander?

Halladay?

Scherzer?

Santana?

Greinke?

Lee?

Oswalt?

 

 

CC is Sale’s best comp. look below

 

CC had a better 6 year peak than Sale in WAR (by 1.7 total over 6 years) and eerily the exact same peak season WAR at 7.4. While CC didn’t throw as hard as Sale, he was just as if not more effective. Sale is dealing with the juiced ball. CC dealt with the juiced player.

 

CC and Sale had another parallel. After their 6 year peak, they had a season of 4 WAR (Sale will be around there maybe a touch higher). Both of them experienced a 1.5-1.6 mph drop in fastball velocity. Both experienced a jump in HR rate but maintained good enough production to be effective and good K and walk rates for them.

 

CC fell further the following year and lost another 1+ mph of velocity and essentially became a near league average pitcher. He reinvented himself at that point and returned to being effective. Sale will be buoyed by the higher K rates. But in durability and innings pitched, no peer beat CC in his prime.

 

I remember 2012 well. He was good, but the fastball disappeared a bit. I remember 2013 even more where the fastball was entirely gone

[Slasher9]

We haven’t had our ace all season and we’re 17 games up on you guys. How’s third place?

 

not bad actually.

this makes it very easy:

[moonslav59]

CC is Sale’s best comp. look below

 

CC had a better 6 year peak than Sale in WAR (by 1.7 total over 6 years) and eerily the exact same peak season WAR at 7.4. While CC didn’t throw as hard as Sale, he was just as if not more effective. Sale is dealing with the juiced ball. CC dealt with the juiced player.

 

CC and Sale had another parallel. After their 6 year peak, they had a season of 4 WAR (Sale will be around there maybe a touch higher). Both of them experienced a 1.5-1.6 mph drop in fastball velocity. Both experienced a jump in HR rate but maintained good enough production to be effective and good K and walk rates for them.

 

CC fell further the following year and lost another 1+ mph of velocity and essentially became a near league average pitcher. He reinvented himself at that point and returned to being effective. Sale will be buoyed by the higher K rates. But in durability and innings pitched, no peer beat CC in his prime.

 

I remember 2012 well. He was good, but the fastball disappeared a bit. I remember 2013 even more where the fastball was entirely gone

 

Funny how the comp you think is best for Sale had the longest down stretch before bouncing back.

 

I'm still not sure why you think the fact that Sale had the nastiest stuff will be a negative going forward.

 

Sale could just as easily be the next Greinke, Verlander, Santana or Halladay.

 

There's no way for us to know. For all we know, Sale might already be "over" his down stretch. Maybe it wasn't even anything but a slump or a mechanical adjustment period.

 

I admit there is a lot of concern. You seem to be pretty sure he's in for a long re-invention period.

[Slasher9]

Funny how the comp you think is best for Sale had the longest down stretch before bouncing back.

 

I'm still not sure why you think the fact that Sale had the nastiest stuff will be a negative going forward.

 

Sale could just as easily be the next Greinke, Verlander, Santana or Halladay.

 

There's no way for us to know. For all we know, Sale might already be "over" his down stretch. Maybe it wasn't even anything but a slump or a mechanical adjustment period.

 

I admit there is a lot of concern. You seem to be pretty sure he's in for a long re-invention period.

 

if he was wearing pinstripes he would be destined for 300 wins.....

[jung]

if he was wearing pinstripes he would be destined for 300 wins.....

 

Jacko is in his gloating irrational glory at present. Typical Yankmee fan. Give them a moment in the sunlight and they will f*** it up every time.

[Kimmi]

Me. I'm to blame. I'm the reason why we suck

 

Truth. Game thread mojo buster!

[Kimmi]

We haven’t had our ace all season and we’re 17 games up on you guys. How’s third place?

 

And still, the Yankees haven't won anything.

[dannycater]

Me. I'm to blame. I'm the reason why we suck

 

No I'm Spartacus!

[jacksonianmarch]

Funny how the comp you think is best for Sale had the longest down stretch before bouncing back.

 

I'm still not sure why you think the fact that Sale had the nastiest stuff will be a negative going forward.

 

Sale could just as easily be the next Greinke, Verlander, Santana or Halladay.

 

There's no way for us to know. For all we know, Sale might already be "over" his down stretch. Maybe it wasn't even anything but a slump or a mechanical adjustment period.

 

I admit there is a lot of concern. You seem to be pretty sure he's in for a long re-invention period.

 

Of the guys you list, only one was a power pitcher in Verlander. I know the others had heaters early on, but Santana, Greinke and Halladay were as much about location, movement, depth of arsenal and command as they were power. They had an arsenal that would age well. Verlander and Sale are different beasts. Verlander was only okay when his velo dropped. WAR still of 3-ish but he saw a 2-3 mph drop in his velocity. After moving to Houston, he regained his power. Fishy as hell if you ask me.

 

Also, Verlander is on his way to another 200IP season which will be 12 of the last 13 for him. He really hasn’t had an injury like Sale had where immediately thereafter he lost his heater. CC did (bone chips in elbow). Sale is a power pitcher. Mid to high 90s, power slider, okay change. Wait, a lefty with a good fastball, power slider and okay change? Who does that remind me of? (Hint, CC) He doesn’t really run anything in on lefties. He doesn’t really rely on impeccable command in the zone but he can throw strikes. He’s a good morning, good afternoon, and good night kind of pitcher. You can’t challenge guys without big velocity and he’s learned that this year. If he drops further in 2020, then it’ll be pretty apparent that he’s following the CC path. They’re very similar.

[Bellhorn04]

Sale's K/9 and K/BB ratio are the best of all time, and quite a bit higher than CC's at the same point in time.