Who’s to blame...

[moonslav59]

So, it has happened.

 

I thought it could have happened with Lester, but the Cubs bid was much more.

 

I wanted to do it with Andrew Miller, but he got way overpaid, too.

 

If we want to rebuild and reset in 2020, trading Betts makes a ton of sense. We could look to spend big for 2021- maybe even going $39M over the limit, which could include signing Betts back.

 

[oldtimer]

The Sox need to decide on a value for Betts, both in years and $$$. I'm afraid that some GM will wind up offering him more than that and he will accept. The alternatives are overvalue him and overpay and wind up with another bad long term contract or trade him and accept that he won't be back.

 

His current performance doesn't stack up to the $27 mil arb value Moon projects so if that doesn't work out to his advantage it might also give him another reason to leave along with the thought the Sox will be in a rebuilding mode for a period of 1 too 3 years.

[dannycater]

Some guys come to Boston and simply can't handle the pressure--this year's victim--Cashner. Go back to Baltimore where clearly the losing atmosphere and no fans to worry about there helped him succeed.

[Donnie Sadler was short]

They need to go to Mookie in the offseason, offer him an extension and tell him that if he doesn't accept it they have to trade him. But do it in an honest, respectful way.

 

Maybe they need Luca Bratzi (sic) to go along.....

[Donnie Sadler was short]

Sale got 5 yrs and $145 mil which starts next year

 

Which I fear may end up being one of the worst contracts in recent history

[notin]

Some guys come to Boston and simply can't handle the pressure--this year's victim--Cashner. Go back to Baltimore where clearly the losing atmosphere and no fans to worry about there helped him succeed.

 

So it’s the pressure of Boston and not the fact that Cashner is In his tenth year of mediocre pitching?

[TylerD]

Which I fear may end up being one of the worst contracts in recent history

 

Very well could be if he keeps this type of performance up. With that said, there is nobody ( I don't give a crap what people say) and I mean NOBODY that would have predicted this steep of a decline for Sale. Maybe he was overdue for a bad season, or just aging so his fastball isn't what it once was.... But nobody would have though his ERA would be nearly 5.00. A bad season for Sale is like 3.75 or something..... We gave him a ridiculous amount of money but I for one thought Sale would always be a guy we can count on.... I wouldn't have predicted this type of season in a million years and nobody would have either regardless what they tell you.

 

If someone produced a comment last year saying "I see Sale having a very bad season" I will stand corrected, but until then we all thought he was our Ace for a long time.... and hopefully he still is. And we can chalk this up to a bad season.

[oldtimer]

Very well could be if he keeps this type of performance up. With that said, there is nobody ( I don't give a crap what people say) and I mean NOBODY that would have predicted this steep of a decline for Sale. Maybe he was overdue for a bad season, or just aging so his fastball isn't what it once was.... But nobody would have though his ERA would be nearly 5.00. A bad season for Sale is like 3.75 or something..... We gave him a ridiculous amount of money but I for one thought Sale would always be a guy we can count on.... I wouldn't have predicted this type of season in a million years and nobody would have either regardless what they tell you.

 

If someone produced a comment last year saying "I see Sale having a very bad season" I will stand corrected, but until then we all thought he was our Ace for a long time.... and hopefully he still is. And we can chalk this up to a bad season.

 

There were signs of Sale suffering from a tired arm toward the end of last season and Cora elected to take it easy on he and Price at the start of the season. Saying that, I still expected Sale to be good enough to be a winning if not the dominant pitcher of the past. The money needed to sign a number 1 or 2 starter these days is incredible but it is true for all the top of the line pitchers. It would be terrible for the team if both Price and Sale are on a steep deline at this point in their careers.

[fxkatt]

I just heard Buster Olney on a local station here. When asked about the Sox, he mentioned the following factors for the sharp decline from last season: 1) Winner's fatigue (all the attention, events, interviews etc) 2) the let down in energy/efforts or hangover effect after getting to the top 3) Social Media's absorption, and the depression that follows 4) Some players on the Sox got paid and some did not, causing tension in the club house.

 

He also said that he was pretty shocked by Sale's contract, and believed it was a mistake, given all his physical issues. He emphasized that he still doesn't understand the thinking behind it. (Actually, I was under the impression that one of the five years was this year, so that makes it even more shocking to Me)

[jacksonianmarch]

I just heard Buster Olney on a local station here. When asked about the Sox, he mentioned the following factors for the sharp decline from last season: 1) Winner's fatigue (all the attention, events, interviews etc) 2) the let down in energy/efforts or hangover effect after getting to the top 3) Social Media's absorption, and the depression that follows 4) Some players on the Sox got paid and some did not, causing tension in the club house.

 

He also said that he was pretty shocked by Sale's contract, and believed it was a mistake, given all his physical issues. He emphasized that he still doesn't understand the thinking behind it. (Actually, I was under the impression that one of the five years was this year, so that makes it even more shocking to Me)

 

I doubt there's tension because some guys got paid. Let's be honest, professional sports is about guys getting paid and some not. Winner's fatigue? That's a losers excuse. Let's look at the real reason. The sox pitchers died. Price fell off after a good start. Porcello fell off the map and lost his breaking ball. Sale's velocity died. Eovaldi couldn't stay healthy. The only guy producing as expected is ERod. The only guy expected to produce next year is ERod. Sale is never going to be what he is being paid for. He may end up as a good mid to back end starter eventually, but he isn't an ace anymore. Price isn't an ace anymore. Porcello wont be on the team. Eovaldi, who knows.

[moonslav59]

I doubt there's tension because some guys got paid. Let's be honest, professional sports is about guys getting paid and some not. Winner's fatigue? That's a losers excuse. Let's look at the real reason. The sox pitchers died. Price fell off after a good start. Porcello fell off the map and lost his breaking ball. Sale's velocity died. Eovaldi couldn't stay healthy. The only guy producing as expected is ERod. The only guy expected to produce next year is ERod. Sale is never going to be what he is being paid for. He may end up as a good mid to back end starter eventually, but he isn't an ace anymore. Price isn't an ace anymore. Porcello wont be on the team. Eovaldi, who knows.

 

You keep saying that about Sale.

 

My study of the best 15 pitchers since 2003 showed that all but King Felix had a down year- most around age 30-32, but bounced back to be a very good, and at times, great pitcher again.

 

Certainly, it is not impossible for him to do better than a middle rotation starter going forward.

 

Do you think Sale can improve on 2019?

 

What slot would a starter with these numbers be ranked?

 

.292 weighted OBA

3.06 xFIP

3.10 SIERA

13.1 K/9

2.4 BB/9

 

Middle to bottom rotation?

 

Edited August 8, 2019 by moonslav59

[TylerD]

There were signs of Sale suffering from a tired arm toward the end of last season and Cora elected to take it easy on he and Price at the start of the season. Saying that, I still expected Sale to be good enough to be a winning if not the dominant pitcher of the past. The money needed to sign a number 1 or 2 starter these days is incredible but it is true for all the top of the line pitchers. It would be terrible for the team if both Price and Sale are on a steep deline at this point in their careers.

 

Valid. Well said.

[jacksonianmarch]

You keep saying that about Sale.

 

My study of the best 15 pitchers since 2003 showed that all but King Felix had a down year- most around age 30-32, but bounced back to be a very good, and at times, great pitcher again.

 

Certainly, it is not impossible for him to do better than a middle rotation starter going forward.

 

Do you think Sale can improve on 2019?

 

What slot would a starter with these numbers be ranked?

 

.292 weighted OBA

3.06 xFIP

3.10 SIERA

13.1 K/9

2.4 BB/9

 

Middle to bottom rotation?

 

 

Yes, middle to bottom of the rotation because he cannot lead a rotation when he gets raked vs good teams. I expect his velocity to continue to drop and his style to change, which will be better for him long term, but may make him somewhat unreliable. I know those other guys fell off for a season, but Sale is falling off not because of dumb luck, but because of loss of stuff

[moonslav59]

Here's a look at the top 18 SP'ers by WAR since 2003. Notice how almost every one had a down season or two, usually around age 30-32, but then bounced back to greatness or near greatness afterwards.

 

We like to think pitchers over 30 all decline, but many of the greats, and Sale is a great one, actually do batter after that one to two "off years" around 29-32 years old. Have a look...

 

ERA+

1) Verlander

136 ages 26-30

85 age 31

142 ages 32-36 Better than before

 

2) Kershaw

179 ages 23-29

145 ages 30-31

??? ages 32>>>

 

3) Sabathia

140 ages 25-31

83 ages 32-34

115 ages 35-37 Not as good as before but very good

 

4) Greinke

132 ages 23-31

102 age 32

140 ages 33-35 Better than before

 

5) Scherzer

144 age 28

123 age 29

160 age 30-34 Better than before

 

6) Felix H

141 ages 23-28

92 ages 29-33

(Kept getting worse and worse)

 

7) Halladay

146 ages 24-29

121 age 30

160 ages 31-34 Better than before

 

8) C Hamels

134 ages 26-28

104 age 29

128 ages 30-35 (130 ages 30-32) Close to the same as before

 

9) Cliff Lee

167 age 29

132 ages 30-31

138 ages 32-24 Not as good as before but still excellent

 

10) Lester

135 ages 24-27

97 ages 28-29

144 ages 30-32 Better than before

 

11) C Sale

144 ages 21-29

103 age 30

??? ages 31>>>

 

12) Buehrle

131 ages 25-26

95 age 27

117 ages 28-33

99 age 34

110 ages 35-36

(2 examples of bouncing back)

 

13) Peavy

131 ages 23-28

90 ages 29-30

109 ages 31-34 (110 ages 31-33) Not as good as before but very good

 

14) Oswalt

143 ages 23-29

110 ages 30-31

126 ages 32-33 (145 age 32) Very good afterwards

 

15) J Santana

161 ages 23-27

129 age 28

143 ages 29-31 Not as good but still excellent

 

16) D Price

130 ages 24-29

112 age 30

127 ages 31-32 (111 at age 33) Still very good

 

17) J Lackey

127 ages 26-30

82 ages 31-33 (including missed season)

120 ages 34-37 Very close to as good as before and still excellent

 

18) D Haren

122 ages 24-30

85 ages 31-33

106 age 34 Only one good year after dip.

 

Looking at these histories, I see no reason to think Sale is toast. Many great pitchers dipped and got even better afterwards. Many dipped and got back to a very good level. A couple dipped and got back to decency- maybe for just a short time. A couple the jury is still out. Only King Felix declined and kept declining.

 

[moonslav59]

Yes, middle to bottom of the rotation because he cannot lead a rotation when he gets raked vs good teams. I expect his velocity to continue to drop and his style to change, which will be better for him long term, but may make him somewhat unreliable. I know those other guys fell off for a season, but Sale is falling off not because of dumb luck, but because of loss of stuff

 

Many of the pitchers on my list provided lost velocity or had to re-invent themselves after a 1-3 year dip. Some regained their velocity or "stuff" after the dip.

 

Tell me why Sale is so different than the the guys on my list.

 

Look at CC. Look at Price. Both clearly lost velocity and came back to be better than a middle rotation pitcher.

 

Peavy> Lester and Lackey, too. Some of the other guys, I'm not sure how they improved after the dip, but my guess is some of them did not have the same "stuff" as before the dip. They learned new ways to get guys out.

 

The great pitchers do that. Basically 15 out of 18 did just that and two (Sale & Kershaw) have yet to be judged.

 

I like those odds.

 

Even if you don't like them, your implying Sale is almost certainly doomed to mediocrity, at best, is puzzling.

[Bellhorn04]

I just heard Buster Olney on a local station here. When asked about the Sox, he mentioned the following factors for the sharp decline from last season: 1) Winner's fatigue (all the attention, events, interviews etc) 2) the let down in energy/efforts or hangover effect after getting to the top 3) Social Media's absorption, and the depression that follows 4) Some players on the Sox got paid and some did not, causing tension in the club house.

 

Those are all pretty good guesses about the Sox issues.

[jad]

Those are all pretty good guesses about the Sox issues.

 

Why does that affect only the pitchers, and not the hitters?

[Bellhorn04]

Why does that affect only the pitchers, and not the hitters?

 

That's an excellent question - sounds like one I would ask myself!

 

On the offense side, the overall numbers look good, no question. And certainly the offense carries less of the blame.

 

As a general observation, it seems like the offense is not quite as 'relentless' as last year's, or this year's Yankees. They have big outbursts that pad up the numbers, then go quiet again.

 

In the first 3 games of the home series against the Yankees they exploded. In the 8 losses that followed they were nothing special.

 

The other things you have to look at with the position players are defense, baserunning and mental errors or lack thereof. Benintendi and Bradley both seem slower on D this year, for example.

[jung]

That's an excellent question - sounds like one I would ask myself!

 

On the offense side, the overall numbers look good, no question. And certainly the offense carries less of the blame.

 

As a general observation, it seems like the offense is not quite as 'relentless' as last year's, or this year's Yankees. They have big outbursts that pad up the numbers, then go quiet again.

 

In the first 3 games of the home series against the Yankees they exploded. In the 8 losses that followed they were nothing special.

 

The other things you have to look at with the position players are defense, baserunning and mental errors or lack thereof. Benintendi and Bradley both seem slower on D this year, for example.

 

Good post. The defense has been nowhere near as crisp this year. Rafi as an individual defender has improved immensely. But that is indicative of his growth as a player. Outside of that the defense has more often been soft than it than it has been crisp. DP's not made. OFers not backing each other....lots of both this year.

 

As for the offense, there is the chance that they simply got pulled out of their games when so many times they were looking up at a deficit so early in games. How many times were they looking up at deficits before they even came to the plate for the first time in a game this year. How many times were they looking up at a deficit after the 2nd inning.

 

This team has a history of feasting on bullpens as the MO for its offense. That is a bit harder to employ when you are staring up at the opponent right from the middle of the 2nd inning. Its a bit harder to employ any sort of aggressive base running and hit and run when you are staring up right from very early in the game as well. Our starters in the main have not even been able to keep us even early in games.

 

Much around the game and in games has conspired against the Sox this year....as it will conspire against any team attempting to repeat in this version of MLB. We don't have a repeat WS winner once this century yet and we won't have one this year either.

[Bellhorn04]

Much around the game and in games has conspired against the Sox this year....as it will conspire against any team attempting to repeat in this version of MLB. We don't have a repeat WS winner once this century yet and we won't have one this year either.

 

A thought that occurs to me is that Brian Cashman may have really gotten the jump on the rocket ball thing this year. All of a sudden the Yankees 'home run or nothing' approach looks brilliant. According to Jax, Cashman has been hunting for guys with high 'exit velocity'.

[notin]

Why does that affect only the pitchers, and not the hitters?

 

Manfred Misssile?

[Elktonnick]

It hardly matters who is to blame at this point. The rotation has been awful. So the first place you go is to the players themselves. But who committed this franchise to these starters? Who decided on closer by committee which has worked in MLB about all of one time that I can remember.

 

I have got a bigger issue. How oblivious to the pulse of this team is the front office? They came out right at the trade deadline and made all kinds of noise about how confident and enthusiastic this team was about itself, its uniform management, its executive management and its chances to get to the post season this year and the team went right out and immediately and publicly pulled management's pants right down around its ankles. How is it that this management was so far removed from the sentiments of the team that they ended up writing checks the team was clearly unwilling to cover fully 2/3rds of the way through the 2019 season?

 

this organization is a mess, top to bottom. IMO, LaVangie is gone, the bullpen coach is gone. Some players will be gone and now there is a much better chance that DD is gone than there was before everybody in management went and shot their mouths off at the trade deadline.

 

I think you hit the nail squarely on the head when you questioned how oblivious the front office to the pulse of the team. This seems to coincide with Dan Shaughnessy's observation that DD has isolated himself from the rest of management.

[jacksonianmarch]

A thought that occurs to me is that Brian Cashman may have really gotten the jump on the rocket ball thing this year. All of a sudden the Yankees 'home run or nothing' approach looks brilliant. According to Jax, Cashman has been hunting for guys with high 'exit velocity'.

 

He has been. The thing is, the guys with higher exit velocity also have a better batting average than most since harder hit balls have a better chance of landing. Voit and Tauchman are exit velo finds. And Cashman called it when he made the moves. His quote was something like "we identified these players with high exit velocities and think they have a good chance of success." He was right.

[jung]

A thought that occurs to me is that Brian Cashman may have really gotten the jump on the rocket ball thing this year. All of a sudden the Yankees 'home run or nothing' approach looks brilliant. According to Jax, Cashman has been hunting for guys with high 'exit velocity'.

 

Cue Music:

"NY...NY....its a wonderful town. The bronx is up and the battery's down. Joe and Rob are right in Yankee-town"

 

"CUT......CUT......What the f*** is wrong with you people. We can't make that the MLB anthem. Its not like are asses are not hung out in the breeze enough, ya' gotta' pull this crap!!!!"

 

"WHOOPS.....Sorry Mr Manfred"

Edited August 8, 2019 by jung

[OH FOY]

Lets see what happens after the Yanks play Guardians, A's, and Dodgers, in a row for 10 games.

[jacksonianmarch]

The “rocket” ball has less to do with exit velo and more distance travelled. The thought is the ball has less “drag” which wouldn’t impact its exit velocity but would impact how the air slows it down, hence making it travel farther.

[kenmeister]

Here's a look at the top 18 SP'ers by WAR since 2003. Notice how almost every one had a down season or two, usually around age 30-32, but then bounced back to greatness or near greatness afterwards.

 

We like to think pitchers over 30 all decline, but many of the greats, and Sale is a great one, actually do batter after that one to two "off years" around 29-32 years old. Have a look...

 

ERA+

1) Verlander

136 ages 26-30

85 age 31

142 ages 32-36 Better than before

 

2) Kershaw

179 ages 23-29

145 ages 30-31

??? ages 32>>>

 

3) Sabathia

140 ages 25-31

83 ages 32-34

115 ages 35-37 Not as good as before but very good

 

4) Greinke

132 ages 23-31

102 age 32

140 ages 33-35 Better than before

 

5) Scherzer

144 age 28

123 age 29

160 age 30-34 Better than before

 

6) Felix H

141 ages 23-28

92 ages 29-33

(Kept getting worse and worse)

 

7) Halladay

146 ages 24-29

121 age 30

160 ages 31-34 Better than before

 

8) C Hamels

134 ages 26-28

104 age 29

128 ages 30-35 (130 ages 30-32) Close to the same as before

 

9) Cliff Lee

167 age 29

132 ages 30-31

138 ages 32-24 Not as good as before but still excellent

 

10) Lester

135 ages 24-27

97 ages 28-29

144 ages 30-32 Better than before

 

11) C Sale

144 ages 21-29

103 age 30

??? ages 31>>>

 

12) Buehrle

131 ages 25-26

95 age 27

117 ages 28-33

99 age 34

110 ages 35-36

(2 examples of bouncing back)

 

13) Peavy

131 ages 23-28

90 ages 29-30

109 ages 31-34 (110 ages 31-33) Not as good as before but very good

 

14) Oswalt

143 ages 23-29

110 ages 30-31

126 ages 32-33 (145 age 32) Very good afterwards

 

15) J Santana

161 ages 23-27

129 age 28

143 ages 29-31 Not as good but still excellent

 

16) D Price

130 ages 24-29

112 age 30

127 ages 31-32 (111 at age 33) Still very good

 

17) J Lackey

127 ages 26-30

82 ages 31-33 (including missed season)

120 ages 34-37 Very close to as good as before and still excellent

 

18) D Haren

122 ages 24-30

85 ages 31-33

106 age 34 Only one good year after dip.

 

Looking at these histories, I see no reason to think Sale is toast. Many great pitchers dipped and got even better afterwards. Many dipped and got back to a very good level. A couple dipped and got back to decency- maybe for just a short time. A couple the jury is still out. Only King Felix declined and kept declining.

 

 

This makes me feel much more optimistic about the future. Thanks for the detailed analysis. You should write the On Baseball column for the Sunday Globe.

[jad]

Manfred Misssile?

 

That would explain it if other teams were not playing w/ the same ball.

[jung]

That would explain it if other teams were not playing w/ the same ball.

 

I don't even know what that means. But if its supposed to mean that other teams have better pitching than the Sox, some do and some don't. But the general level of pitching quality in MLB has fallen to the lowest level of garbage I have seen in 60 years of watching this game. It is trash....across the board with very Very VERY few exceptions.

[jacksonianmarch]

This makes me feel much more optimistic about the future. Thanks for the detailed analysis. You should write the On Baseball column for the Sunday Globe.

 

Sale is difficult, IMO, because he got by on absolutely wicked stuff. While I doubt he’s as bad as his ERA is this year, he won’t get to the dizzying heights he was at when he had his stuff. I foresee a CC style return once he embraces his lost velocity and sits on the edges of the zone. But ERA+ only tells you so much. Sale was a bulldog workhorse prior to last season. Those days are over. Interesting that you used ERA+. I wonder if the same would hold true if you used WAR?