A Realistic View at 2019: Part II

[cp176]

What??? No way! Think of all the fan interest generated: Williams' pursuit of .400; Pete Rose's hitting streak; Sosa vs. Mcquire, Bonds chasing Ruth ... and now, fans just streaming into parks all giddy about who will win the dWAR race.

 

I like this!!!

[jad]

Nicely done. Numbers are a huge part of baseball. As Kevin Costner says in For Love of the Game, "we count everything in baseball." And earlier in Bull Durham he explains, correctly, that the difference between hitting .300 and .250 is one hit a week. But your last bit is hilariously counter to the fixation on the new stats. Funny thing about WAR (not dWAR), however, is that the player with the highest WAR at the end of a season usually gets voted in as the league MVP. In the old days, it used to be the guy with most rbi's.

 

I happen to think that baseball is absolutely the best professional sport to watch in person, but these days am aghast at the very high cost of going in person combined with the increasing length of games in order to allow batters to repeatedly scratch themselves, adjust their gloves, examine their bats, adjust their caps, pretend they are interested in signals from the 3b coach, etc. And pitchers are no better because they seem to believe that throwing the next pitch is never something to be rushed but rather is something to be savored like a fine wine.

 

Agree entirely. But then, I just got back from a AA game (a double-header). Front row seats just past third base. $10. And the best parts? (1) The pitch clock! (Can't get that in MLB fast enough). And (2) NO REPLAY!!!

[Slasher9]

You all have to remember that we are not at the ballpark. Nor are we even quoting analytics in the game threads during the games. Nor are the fans on this forum your average fans.

 

The last thing on my mind when I'm watching a game or when I'm at the ballpark is advanced stats. During games, it's pure emotion and enjoying the beauty and the nuances of the game.

 

This type of argument against analytics is weak. Very weak.

 

As I've said before, if you are on a baseball forum discussing and debating baseball, it's a completely different story. Analytics are necessary.

 

thats pretty good

[cp176]

Well said. The only time I ever think of stats while watching a game is if someone like JBJ goes 3 for 4 with 2 HRs, and I think, "I wonder what his OPS is now?"

 

There are many of us who love the stats, metrics and analytics but can also totally enjoy just watching a game free of deep thoughts on numbers.

 

I respect the interests of all people but her assessment of who should use advanced stats and who shouldn't and when is ridiculous. Being on a baseball forum does absolutely not require someone to be immersed in the language of advanced stats or whatever. I will also add that personally I would never argue against the use of advanced analytics. I'm pretty sure that there are many people who have no interest at all in advanced analytics but yet know more about the actual game of baseball than I will ever know. This site does not have many regular posters and my guess would be that if a thorough knowledge of advanced stats was required before participation, there would be less. I think that there is a place on a baseball forum for just about anybody who wants to talk baseball.

[Noles_1335]

If I'm and opposing pitcher and facing JDM.... its spinners away every pitch. What in the hell is wrong with this guy right now?

[dgalehouse]

Nobody asked me , but here are a couple of things that should be stopped : 1 - Managers telling the ump to hold up for a minute while they check the replay to see if they want to challenge the call . If you want to challenge , then challenge immediately . 2- Players carrying " cheat notes " in their pockets and hats . Do your homework for heaven's sake . No cheat notes .

[notin]

Nobody asked me , but here are a couple of things that should be stopped : 1 - Managers telling the ump to hold up for a minute while they check the replay to see if they want to challenge the call . If you want to challenge , then challenge immediately . 2- Players carrying " cheat notes " in their pockets and hats . Do your homework for heaven's sake . No cheat notes .

 

These changes are 100% better than gimmicky “three batter minimum” rules...

[dannycater]

If I'm and opposing pitcher and facing JDM.... its spinners away every pitch. What in the hell is wrong with this guy right now?

 

His actual batting coach last few years is now the Dodgers batting coach and he is not allowed to contact him. He has since gotten into some bad habits, but his pitch selection as far as chasing pitches is what is hurting him. He can't seem to read or adjust to pitches away, breaking balls away and down. Plate discipline. I actually think his swing is fine, he's still driving the ball, ripping line drives, hitting bombs occasionally, but he has simply lost the ability to go to the opposite field much. So we have a plate discipline thing and a not using right field like he used to, thing. He has to keep working on his videos and figure it out. Once he does that, his HR and average will sky-rocket I think.

[dannycater]

I like this!!!

 

Williams family has his frozen head near a tuna can, Rose is a gamble-holic, disgraced and never will get into HOF despite all-time hits leader, Sosa and McGwire were complete PED cheats, Bonds too.

[Slasher9]

These changes are 100% better than gimmicky “three batter minimum” rules...

 

the limiting catcher visits to the mound directly led to the pitcher cheat notes in hat.

[dannycater]

The last real spike in baseball interest was a PED-enhanced, manufactured home run duel between 2 absolute disgraces to the game, cheaters that make anything accused of the Patriots chicken feed in comparison.

[moonslav59]

I respect the interests of all people but her assessment of who should use advanced stats and who shouldn't and when is ridiculous. Being on a baseball forum does absolutely not require someone to be immersed in the language of advanced stats or whatever. I will also add that personally I would never argue against the use of advanced analytics. I'm pretty sure that there are many people who have no interest at all in advanced analytics but yet know more about the actual game of baseball than I will ever know. This site does not have many regular posters and my guess would be that if a thorough knowledge of advanced stats was required before participation, there would be less. I think that there is a place on a baseball forum for just about anybody who wants to talk baseball.

 

I agree. I never expect everyone to be interested in stats and metrics, let alone try and understand them. I use them a lot in my discussions, and I'm fine with anyone who does not pay attention to those parts of my posts. I thinkj numbers do add to the depth of a baseball discussion, but I know that is just my opinion that appears to be shared with several other posters and fans.

[notin]

the limiting catcher visits to the mound directly led to the pitcher cheat notes in hat.

 

Maybe Manfred will make a rule where the pitcher can only throw fastballs and any foul ball caught by someone in the stands is an out...

[dannycater]

Maybe Manfred will make a rule where the pitcher can only throw fastballs and any foul ball caught by someone in the stands is an out...

 

except the safety nets will prevent the balls from going into the stands

[oldtimer]

His actual batting coach last few years is now the Dodgers batting coach and he is not allowed to contact him. He has since gotten into some bad habits, but his pitch selection as far as chasing pitches is what is hurting him. He can't seem to read or adjust to pitches away, breaking balls away and down. Plate discipline. I actually think his swing is fine, he's still driving the ball, ripping line drives, hitting bombs occasionally, but he has simply lost the ability to go to the opposite field much. So we have a plate discipline thing and a not using right field like he used to, thing. He has to keep working on his videos and figure it out. Once he does that, his HR and average will sky-rocket I think.

 

He appears not to be able to pick up the spin on the ball and layoff those pitches which will likely be off the plate. He does seem to swing early in the count, which means he is aggressive enough, so things are a matter of pitch recognition. As another has said on this site, hitting major league pitching is very difficult and a good hitter fails 2 of 3 times.

 

The good news in Beni has figured something out and has started to hit more consistently. He is going both to right and left. His swing is really text book.Bogie and Devers as also dialed in.

 

Betts is off again on again. When he stops being aggressive, he will take fast balls on the plate and find himself in a hole. Then he too, like JDM, swings at spinners off the plate. Even the best hitters face a constant battle to continue to ake solid contact.

[dannycater]

What's scary is how good the offense is overall in terms of all the HR, doubles, runs scored, etc compared to the dead-ball era teams of the late 1980s and early 1990s. Some of those teams were just awful in comparison to the 1999 to present teams. Game has changed, hitters are either using designer drugs or the balls are juiced, or both.

[moonslav59]

It's a juiced ball.

[cp176]

I agree. I never expect everyone to be interested in stats and metrics, let alone try and understand them. I use them a lot in my discussions, and I'm fine with anyone who does not pay attention to those parts of my posts. I thinkj numbers do add to the depth of a baseball discussion, but I know that is just my opinion that appears to be shared with several other posters and fans.

 

I get this and I understand you. I like reading what you post. I am interested in the metrics and advanced stats but not my passion. I will rely on people like you to keep me informed. I just don't happen to like the condescension that often comes from others simply because it is not a shared interest. And oh don't they get angry when I tell them that it is fairly likely that I do in fact know more about the actual game than they do.

[S5Dewey]

I get this and I understand you. I like reading what you post. I am interested in the metrics and advanced stats but not my passion. I will rely on people like you to keep me informed. I just don't happen to like the condescension that often comes from others simply because it is not a shared interest. And oh don't they get angry when I tell them that it is fairly likely that I do in fact know more about the actual game than they do.

 

This post is one of the things I wish I'd said.

[moonslav59]

I get this and I understand you. I like reading what you post. I am interested in the metrics and advanced stats but not my passion. I will rely on people like you to keep me informed. I just don't happen to like the condescension that often comes from others simply because it is not a shared interest. And oh don't they get angry when I tell them that it is fairly likely that I do in fact know more about the actual game than they do.

 

I see what you are saying. It does happen.

 

I will say, I sometimes feel some condescension coming from the non stat-lover posters.

 

I'd like to think nobody intentionally posts in a condescending manner, and it's hard to start every position with "It's my opinion that..." or "I believe that...." Instead, we just state our opinions, and maybe it comes across as a matter of fact. For example, let's say someone says, "Betts is in a terrible slump." I may respond, "His OPS is .850 over the last14 days and .900 over the last 28 days." That may come across as a discussion ender, but I don't intend it to be that way. If someone counters that he's at .600 for the last 8 games or hitting .180 for the past 2 weeks, I'm open to seeing that there is room for both sides to be "right." If someone says 7 of his hits were bloop or soft grounders, I'm all ears. I know numbers don't mean everything and can be deceiving, especially in small sample sizes.

 

 

 

[dannycater]

I see what you are saying. It does happen.

 

I will say, I sometimes feel some condescension coming from the non stat-lover posters.

 

I'd like to think nobody intentionally posts in a condescending manner, and it's hard to start every position with "It's my opinion that..." or "I believe that...." Instead, we just state our opinions, and maybe it comes across as a matter of fact. For example, let's say someone says, "Betts is in a terrible slump." I may respond, "His OPS is .850 over the last14 days and .900 over the last 28 days." That may come across as a discussion ender, but I don't intend it to be that way. If someone counters that he's at .600 for the last 8 games or hitting .180 for the past 2 weeks, I'm open to seeing that there is room for both sides to be "right." If someone says 7 of his hits were bloop or soft grounders, I'm all ears. I know numbers don't mean everything and can be deceiving, especially in small sample sizes.

 

 

 

 

Taking it a step farther, we all use what we used to call sample sizes and create streaks of good and bad by dates between what is an upswing and a downswing. Take that the Red Sox are 49-31 in their last 80 games. It means what exactly? They are playing better now, but they also were god awful for way too many games to open the season. Beni is great now, not so great 5 games ago. Overall, that's why Devers, Bogie, EROD and Workman have been pretty damn outstanding because they have the overall numbers to prove it.

[Bellhorn04]

He appears not to be able to pick up the spin on the ball and layoff those pitches which will likely be off the plate. He does seem to swing early in the count, which means he is aggressive enough, so things are a matter of pitch recognition. As another has said on this site, hitting major league pitching is very difficult and a good hitter fails 2 of 3 times.

 

The good news in Beni has figured something out and has started to hit more consistently. He is going both to right and left. His swing is really text book.Bogie and Devers as also dialed in.

 

Betts is off again on again. When he stops being aggressive, he will take fast balls on the plate and find himself in a hole. Then he too, like JDM, swings at spinners off the plate. Even the best hitters face a constant battle to continue to ake solid contact.

 

Good post, oldtimer. Hitting is really hard.

 

J D Martinez is hitting .293 on the season. The way some people are talking about him you'd think he was hitting .193.

[notin]

Good post, oldtimer. Hitting is really hard.

 

J D Martinez is hitting .293 on the season. The way some people are talking about him you'd think he was hitting .193.

 

While fans like “consistent” hitting, over the course of a season, this concept is extremely rare. Every hitter has good and bad stretches. One good month can take a hitter from “average” to “worthy of MVP votes.”

[moonslav59]

Good post, oldtimer. Hitting is really hard.

 

J D Martinez is hitting .293 on the season. The way some people are talking about him you'd think he was hitting .193.

 

...and if pitchers start throwing only breaking balls to JD, he will adjust and then murder them.

[kenmeister]

Good post, oldtimer. Hitting is really hard.

 

J D Martinez is hitting .293 on the season. The way some people are talking about him you'd think he was hitting .193.

 

We really are blessed with good hitters. I expect to see more 12+ run games this season.

[kenmeister]

I'm bummed that Marco Hernandez is down at Pawtucket. I think he's proven he's ready for the major leagues. What should the Sox do with him?

[moonslav59]

We really are blessed with good hitters. I expect to see more 12+ run games this season.

 

Team OPS since June 13:

 

.904 BOS

.874 NYY

.846 HOU

.846 CLE

.813 MIN

.806 LAD

 

XBHs

181 BOS

156 NYY

153 SFG

151 CLE

149 LAD

 

[Bellhorn04]

We really are blessed with good hitters. I expect to see more 12+ run games this season.

 

Our 1-5 hitters right now are about as good a 1-5 as we've ever had.

[moonslav59]

Our 1-5 hitters right now are about as good a 1-5 as we've ever had.

 

Agreed.

 

Our 6th hitters have an .857 OPS, this year, which is higher than our 1 and 5 slots.

 

Our 7-9 hitters are better than recent seasons:

 

.700 in 2019

 

.660 in 2018

 

.698 in 2017

 

[Maxbialystock]

I'm bummed that Marco Hernandez is down at Pawtucket. I think he's proven he's ready for the major leagues. What should the Sox do with him?

 

Bring him back. Send Travis down.