The annual Jackie Bradley Jr thread (2019 Edition)

[mvp 78]

A "grain of salt" is essential in JBJ's case because his WAR right now is -.9 and his DWAR is -.2. JBJ continues to start because Cora and DD know he has been better in the past. He inherited the CF job from Ellsbury in 2014 and was so bad he ended up in Pawtucket and started there in 2015. Then came August when he was brought up and caught fire which continued into 2016, but with ups and downs. Since 2016, he has slid backward to between the horrendous 2014 and the amazing 2015-16.

 

JBJ's lowest fWAR in a season since being a starter is 1.9 in 2015. I think he'll end up in the 2's again by year's end. He is what he is: inconsistent bat, great glove. Sox got lucky that he heated up in the playoffs last year.

[mvp 78]

0.1 and 0.3 are pretty much 0.

 

Granted, the season is only about 1/8 over. But even at this pace, Devers would pace for 1.8 fWAR. Of course, WAR can go down, too.

 

Devers really isn’t a good third baseman. And when the off-season rolls around, the Sox will need to add some players. Free agency will be tough, especially after extending Sale and Bogaerts . So if they have to trade, who should it be? The best options are the ones that can be replaced internally.

 

Devers tops that list...

 

It's totally what it says.

[notin]

It's totally what it says.

 

 

There was a whole paragraph after it that acknowledges the point in the season and pace.

 

Devers has only been worth 1.7 fWAR in 178 games over the past two seasons, and the big detriment has been his defense. Corey Spangenburg has also been worth 1.7 fWAR over that same stretch...

[mvp 78]

There was a whole paragraph after it that acknowledges the point in the season and pace.

 

Devers has only been worth 1.7 fWAR in 178 games over the past two seasons, and the big detriment has been his defense. Corey Spangenburg has also been worth 1.7 fWAR over that same stretch...

 

Spangenburg is 28 and hitting 191 in AAA this year. He also played 245 games over the previous two seasons which bumps up his stats a little (67 extra games). With Devers, you aren't looking to replace his current numbers, you are worried about his future numbers skyrocketing and you losing out on that value. You know this though. You're just picking a weird argument for arguments sake.

[Slasher9]

He is flat out stating that Devers is no better than a replacement level player at 3b. How will moving him to 1b change his value so dramatically? Is 1b a non defensive defensive position? And to be ready means to be ready. So it absolutely means Dalbec could be thrown out there at third now with no harm done to the team's ability to win games. That is the definition of replacement level.

 

Throwing errors aren’t very common for a firstbaseman...

[mvp 78]

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=666915#/career/R/hitting/2019/ALL

 

Dalbec hasn't started the season very strong, so he REALLY doesn't look ready right now. The idea that they can just call him up and he'll be where Devers is statistically is silly to me.

[notin]

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=666915#/career/R/hitting/2019/ALL

 

Dalbec hasn't started the season very strong, so he REALLY doesn't look ready right now. The idea that they can just call him up and he'll be where Devers is statistically is silly to me.

 

 

It was more of a plan for 2020.

 

I know Devers is your man-crush, but all things considered, he might be the best trade bait the Sox have. Bradley really isn’t...

[mvp 78]

It was more of a plan for 2020.

 

I know Devers is your man-crush, but all things considered, he might be the best trade bait the Sox have. Bradley really isn’t...

 

I agree and have said so before. The trade just has to be for the right package. I don't think anyone is ever untouchable.

[notin]

Spangenburg is 28 and hitting 191 in AAA this year. He also played 245 games over the previous two seasons which bumps up his stats a little (67 extra games). With Devers, you aren't looking to replace his current numbers, you are worried about his future numbers skyrocketing and you losing out on that value. You know this though. You're just picking a weird argument for arguments sake.

 

 

No I’m establishing some perspective on Devers. FV is what he has, but present day, he hasn’t really been some untouchable contributor. On his side is age and salary. But expecting young players to always improve is a mistake as well.

 

And if the Sox need to get a really good player for next season, they’re more likely to get one without taking a noticeable step back at the position by dealing Devers.

 

I’m trying to establish Devers as their best trade candidate. The best way to counter is to come up wit a better one. We do have a trade-happy GM/President...

[harmony]

It was more of a plan for 2020.

 

I know Devers is your man-crush, but all things considered, he might be the best trade bait the Sox have. Bradley really isn’t...

Do other teams value Rafael Devers any higher?

[mvp 78]

No I’m establishing some perspective on Devers. FV is what he has, but present day, he hasn’t really been some untouchable contributor. On his side is age and salary. But expecting young players to always improve is a mistake as well.

 

And if the Sox need to get a really good player for next season, they’re more likely to get one without taking a noticeable step back at the position by dealing Devers.

 

I’m trying to establish Devers as their best trade candidate. The best way to counter is to come up wit a better one. We do have a trade-happy GM/President...

 

He is their best trade candidate, but your argument doesn't work.

[notin]

I agree and have said so before. The trade just has to be for the right package. I don't think anyone is ever untouchable.

 

I wouldn’t deal him for, say, Michael Taylor (who would actually be a good acquisition since he’s basically a right-handed Bradley buried in the Washington depth chart). But for replacing Porcello or Pedroia with a quality cheaper controllable piece? Even for the right bullpen addition(s)? But that’s really situational.

 

The Sox don’t have another player as valuable in a trade who also has a player behind him ready to step in and contribute a significant portion of his overall contributions...

[mvp 78]

I wouldn’t deal him for, say, Michael Taylor (who would actually be a good acquisition since he’s basically a right-handed Bradley buried in the Washington depth chart). But for replacing Porcello or Pedroia with a quality cheaper controllable piece? Even for the right bullpen addition(s)? But that’s really situational.

 

The Sox don’t have another player as valuable in a trade who also has a player behind him ready to step in and contribute a significant portion of his overall contributions...

 

I wouldn't trade him for a bullpen arm. It would have to be a top of the rotation starter or a starting position player or for a prospect with an insane ceiling.

[notin]

He is their best trade candidate, but your argument doesn't work.

 

 

Why not?

 

If you look at the Sox farm, who is most likely to be able to replace (most of) their MLB counterpart next season?

[notin]

I wouldn't trade him for a bullpen arm. It would have to be a top of the rotation starter or a starting position player or for a prospect with an insane ceiling.

 

 

Bullpen arm or arms is really, really dependent on the names involved.

 

If Milwaukee didn’t want to pay Josh Hader and offered him for Devers, would you reject it?

[notin]

I wouldn't trade him for a bullpen arm. It would have to be a top of the rotation starter or a starting position player or for a prospect with an insane ceiling.

 

 

That’s along the lines of where I’m going here. They aren’t going to get a good SP for anyone else except maybe Benintendi, and then the Sox would need to replace Benintendi as well. I think Dalbec comes closer to replacing Devers than anyone on the farm comes to replacing Benintendi...

[mvp 78]

Why not?

 

If you look at the Sox farm, who is most likely to be able to replace (most of) their MLB counterpart next season?

 

Your argument seems to be "he's a great trade candidate but he's only a replacement level player."

[mvp 78]

Bullpen arm or arms is really, really dependent on the names involved.

 

If Milwaukee didn’t want to pay Josh Hader and offered him for Devers, would you reject it?

 

I pass on Hader for Devers. It'd be Hader plus someone else.

[kenmeister]

If the Sox decide that JBJ isn't a full-time player, I think the next step wouldn't be trading him, but rather using him as a defensive replacement and 4th outfielder.

[mvp 78]

That’s along the lines of where I’m going here. They aren’t going to get a good SP for anyone else except maybe Benintendi, and then the Sox would need to replace Benintendi as well. I think Dalbec comes closer to replacing Devers than anyone on the farm comes to replacing Benintendi...

 

I'm not sure Dalbec could succeed at the MLB level right now. Maybe someday, but not right now. They'd still have a gap to fill for a year or two and by then you'd have Northcutt or Casas or whoever also close to the bigs.

 

Could Beni in LF be replaced by JD and a DH bat? Maybe that's the easier replacement?

[mvp 78]

If the Sox decide that JBJ isn't a full-time player, I think the next step wouldn't be trading him, but rather using him as a defensive replacement and 4th outfielder.

 

If they decided he's not a full time player, no other organization would see him as that either. He's good. You just have to roll with him unless someone knocks you over with an offer.

[notin]

I'm not sure Dalbec could succeed at the MLB level right now. Maybe someday, but not right now. They'd still have a gap to fill for a year or two and by then you'd have Northcutt or Casas or whoever also close to the bigs.

 

Could Beni in LF be replaced by JD and a DH bat? Maybe that's the easier replacement?

 

 

Maybe. But if $$$ becomes an issue, who is this minimum wage DH from within? Chavis?

[notin]

If the Sox decide that JBJ isn't a full-time player, I think the next step wouldn't be trading him, but rather using him as a defensive replacement and 4th outfielder.

 

 

He bats 8th and lower. I think some fans need to stop hoping to fix the bottom of the batting order where the fewest plate appearances come from...

[illinoisredsox]

If the Sox decide that JBJ isn't a full-time player, I think the next step wouldn't be trading him, but rather using him as a defensive replacement and 4th outfielder.

 

He makes waaay too much money for that role.

[mvp 78]

Maybe. But if $$$ becomes an issue, who is this minimum wage DH from within? Chavis?

 

Can probably get a DH type cheaply via trade.

[mvp 78]

He makes waaay too much money for that role.

 

$8.5M is a lot of money, but he's not prohibitively expensive that they wouldn't be able to manage his playing time better when he's not hitting.

[Bellhorn04]

I’m trying to establish Devers as their best trade candidate. The best way to counter is to come up wit a better one. We do have a trade-happy GM/President...

 

Although in his Red Sox tenure DD has almost exclusively traded unproven prospects.

[Slasher9]

If the Sox decide that JBJ isn't a full-time player, I think the next step wouldn't be trading him, but rather using him as a defensive replacement and 4th outfielder.

 

JBj has saved games in the early innings with defensive play. He just helped win 2games on offense...the lead off single scoring on the sac fly and the next night the bunt to get the runners over that scored on the sac fly. That’s literally 2 games his offense helped win regRdless of his sub 200 BA....

[Slasher9]

$8.5M is a lot of money, but he's not prohibitively expensive that they wouldn't be able to manage his playing time better when he's not hitting.

 

 

I’ll take the CF defense for 9 innings over an extra hit or two per week from the 8/9 hitter

[S5Dewey]

A "grain of salt" is essential in JBJ's case because ... his DWAR is -.2.

 

Hahahahaha. This may be the best example of the inaccuracy of WAR I've ever read. But hey, believe it if you want.