The Pen

[Bellhorn04]

I know it seems incredible, but I actually had a dream this morning that baseball was going to give a new name to high leverage late innings, somewhat similar to the NFL's Red Zone nonsense. It was going to be called the Cliff Zone. This proves conclusively that I spend too much time here.

[jacksonianmarch]

Mychal Givens, Will Smith, Joe Jimenez, Fernando Rodney

 

All guys with promise. Rodney won’t take much to get but he’s being paid more than the theoretical limit would allow. The other guys will require a ton of talent to pry loose

[moonslav59]

First off, I am not asking or expecting Henry to spend more. Quite the contrary, actually. I think it is perfectly reasonable for Henry to want to reset and save the tax penalties, even though he can well afford to pay them.

 

I just think it's odd that he would choose not to 'go for it' this year when we have largely the same team returning this year and we have a lot of question marks in our future starting next year.

 

I have said many times that I am fine going into the season with the team as it is and that we should not spend big on a reliever.

 

We are "going for it."

 

We've still are spending more than anyone else and are a top 3 favorite right now. Just because we have one area that could use an upgrade or two, doesn't mean we are not strong contenders.

 

That's a nice team we have right now. And, DD may not be done.

[OH FOY]

Vegas has made gazillions off the Red Zone Non-Sense. That is one of their biggest Sabermetrics, for betting. Efficiency in the Red Zone.

Probably use something like this in Baseball, Teams BP. Can they close a game out. Especially today, since you use multiple Pitchers to close it out.

Edited January 27, 2019 by OH FOY!

[notin]

Whom could the Red Sox trade to land one of these potential closers?

 

Mychal Givens comes with three years of team control and a 2019 salary of $2.15 million.

 

Will Smith is owed $4.23 million in his final year of team control.

 

Joe Jimenez has five years of team control, earning the league minimum in 2019.

 

Fernando Rodney will earn $5.25 million in the final year of his contract but I doubt Oakland wants to dismantle its bullpen coming off a 97-win season.

 

Vazquez, Chavis, Dalbec, Hernandez, Feltman, Swihart, Sharwyn, Mata, Houck

 

 

All you need is one GM who likes a prospect or two in the Sox system....

[notin]

All guys with promise. Rodney won’t take much to get but he’s being paid more than the theoretical limit would allow. The other guys will require a ton of talent to pry loose

 

Will Smith, like Rodney, also has a higher salary and only one season of control left. Given how awful SF was last year will continue to be, the only question about his availability is “when?”

 

And while certainly someone will point oout other teams could offer more than Boston, why haven’t they? It’s almost February.

 

Oakland might not want to dismantle their bullpen (of which Rodney was a member for 2 months and 20 IP), but they also might not want to start the season with Josh Phegley as their starting catcher. I’m not the biggest fan of it, but a Rodney-Vazquez swap does make some sense for both teams. And the AAVs are roughly equal...

[Michigan adam]

If no closer is added it would not suprise me to see price or evoldi take over the role and use johnson/velaquez(sp)/wright as the 5th starter. We certainly have more depth for the rotation than we do for closer. Sort of like a derrick lowe or john smoltz.

[notin]

Adam Conley is an interesting option with four years of team control and a 2019 salary of $1.13 million.

 

Heath Hembree has three years of team control and a 2019 salary of $1.31 million.

 

Steamer projects Conley with a 2019 WAR of a negative 0.1 WAR coming off a season of 0.4 fWAR in 50.2 innings.

 

Steamer projects Hembree with a 2019 WAR of 0.2 in 55 innings coming off a season of 0.2 fWAR in 60 innings.

 

Marcel projects Conley with a 2019 ERA of 4.56 in 50.2 innings and Hembree with a 2019 ERA of 3.98 in 61 innings.

 

Conley is a 28-year-old lefthander from the Seattle area while Hembree is a 30-year-old righthander.

 

If the Miami Marlins trade J.T. Realmuto perhaps the Fish would be interested in another Super Two, Blake Swihart, who comes with four years of team control and a 2019 salary of $910,000.

 

.

 

 

Or maybe Blake Swihart for 28yo Tayron Guerrero?

 

The Marlins might not even mind the athletic Swihart (who can fill their lefty bench multi-position void created by non-tendering Derek Dietrich) even if they never trade JT Realmuto, which is looking likely given that this is a saga closing in on completing it’s second full off-season.

 

Guerrero is a minor league journeyman who did manage to get his fastball velocity up into the “Dombrowski Takes Notice” range. But he’s got some control concerns...

[dgalehouse]

Is Ugie Urbina out of prison yet ? Give him a call . Or maybe Dan Bard would come out of retirement for one more shot at glory . And don't forget the world's most interesting man , Alfredo Aceves . Any of these guys should fit within our restricted budget .

[Bellhorn04]

Is Ugie Urbina out of prison yet ? Give him a call . Or maybe Dan Bard would come out of retirement for one more shot at glory . And don't forget the world's most interesting man , Alfredo Aceves . Any of these guys should fit within our restricted budget .

 

Rich Garces might also be interested in a comeback. He might not even want money, just meals paid for.

[dgalehouse]

Rich Garces might also be interested in a comeback. He might not even want money, just meals paid for.

 

Not sure if the budget can be stretched enough to feed El Guapo .

[Bellhorn04]

Not sure if the budget can be stretched enough to feed El Guapo .

 

I don't think meals allowances count as payroll for luxury tax purposes though.

[cp176]

Make it easy on yourselves boys - dig up the "monster" and prop him up out there. We could use a dose of what Mr. Radatz had when he was on top of his game.

[harmony]

Will Smith, like Rodney, also has a higher salary and only one season of control left. Given how awful SF was last year will continue to be, the only question about his availability is “when?”

 

And while certainly someone will point oout other teams could offer more than Boston, why haven’t they? It’s almost February.

 

Oakland might not want to dismantle their bullpen (of which Rodney was a member for 2 months and 20 IP), but they also might not want to start the season with Josh Phegley as their starting catcher. I’m not the biggest fan of it, but a Rodney-Vazquez swap does make some sense for both teams. And the AAVs are roughly equal...

Steamer600, which assumes 450 plate appearances for each catcher, projects 2019 WAR of 1.7 for Josh Phegley, 2.0 for Oakland teammate Chris Herrmann and 0.2 for Blake Swihart.

 

Among all catchers in the projections, Phegley ranks No. 32, Herrmann No. 21 and Swihart No. 209:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=27%2cd

[harmony]

Or maybe Blake Swihart for 28yo Tayron Guerrero?

 

The Marlins might not even mind the athletic Swihart (who can fill their lefty bench multi-position void created by non-tendering Derek Dietrich) even if they never trade JT Realmuto, which is looking likely given that this is a saga closing in on completing it’s second full off-season.

 

Guerrero is a minor league journeyman who did manage to get his fastball velocity up into the “Dombrowski Takes Notice” range. But he’s got some control concerns...

Tayron Guerrero, who is a candidate to close in Miami, comes with five years of team control and has no options remaining.

 

https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-closer-depth-chart/

 

https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-miami-marlins

[notin]

Tayron Guerrero, who is a candidate to close in Miami, comes with five years of team control and has no options remaining.

 

https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-closer-depth-chart/

 

https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-miami-marlins

 

 

So... not going to mention the -0.1 fWAR Steamer projection for Guerrero?

 

Also, many others seem to think Drew Streckenrider will get the majority of the 15 or so saves for the Miami Marlins this year....

[notin]

Steamer600, which assumes 450 plate appearances for each catcher, projects 2019 WAR of 1.7 for Josh Phegley, 2.0 for Oakland teammate Chris Herrmann and 0.2 for Blake Swihart.

 

Among all catchers in the projections, Phegley ranks No. 32, Herrmann No. 21 and Swihart No. 209:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=27%2cd

 

 

What does Swihart have to do with this?

[harmony]

What does Swihart have to do with this?

Nothing ... I misread the post.

 

My apologies.

 

FWIW, Steamer600 projects Christian Vazquez 60th in 2019 WAR among all catchers (although WAR may not capture pitch-framing and game-calling abilities):

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=27%2cd

[moonslav59]

If no closer is added it would not suprise me to see price or evoldi take over the role and use johnson/velaquez(sp)/wright as the 5th starter. We certainly have more depth for the rotation than we do for closer.

 

It would surprise me, especially Price.

 

We could see Wright given a chance to close, if he is healthy.

 

The only way I see Eovaldi used as our closer is in the playoffs or some scenario like this...

 

A starter gets hurt, and Wright, Johnson or Velazquez pitches very well in the rotation. At the same time, our closer pitcher is struggling. The injured pitcher returns to the rotation, and the Sox brass decides to move Eovaldi to closer- perhaps to limit his IP.

 

I doubt we see any of our starting 5 as the closer during the regular season.

 

[moonslav59]

So... not going to mention the -0.1 fWAR Steamer projection for Guerrero?

 

LOL. Good one!

 

Going by Steamer, Swihart for Guerrero would be a steal for the Marlins.

[harmony]

LOL. Good one!

 

Going by Steamer, Swihart for Guerrero would be a steal for the Marlins.

Steamer projects Tayron Guerrero and Blake Swihart with 2019 WAR of 0.1 each:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=11691&position=P

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13176&position=C

 

... after Guerrero posted a negative 0.1 fWAR and Swihart a negative 0.3 fWAR in 2018.

 

Guerrero remains under team control for five years and Swihart for four years (with a 2019 Super Two salary of $910,000).

[notin]

Steamer projects Tayron Guerrero and Blake Swihart with 2019 WAR of 0.1 each:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=11691&position=P

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13176&position=C

 

... after Guerrero posted a negative 0.1 fWAR and Swihart a negative 0.3 fWAR in 2018.

 

Guerrero remains under team control for five years and Swihart for four years (with a 2019 Super Two salary of $910,000).

 

 

By message board standards, it’s actually a fairly reasonable trade for both teams...

[sk7326]

Nothing ... I misread the post.

 

My apologies.

 

FWIW, Steamer600 projects Christian Vazquez 60th in 2019 WAR among all catchers (although WAR may not capture pitch-framing and game-calling abilities):

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=27%2cd

 

That is fair. Really the question is whether Vazquez can get to something closer to his 2017 level. At least watching the postseason, he was putting together good at-bats, even if he did not always get good mileage from them.

 

Swihart is still the ceiling guy of the three but at this point it might have to be better explored by some other team.

[jacksonianmarch]

I saw Guerrero pitch in Fenway. The guy s*** his pants. He couldn’t locate to save his life

[fxkatt]

I would not want to see either Eovaldi or Price in the pen during the season. Both are great pitchers who have had problems with consistency (either recently or always). I say: let them do what they do best. Besides, starters have more status (pride, dignity) and to fool with that, except in the playoffs, could spell trouble.

[moonslav59]

By message board standards, it’s actually a fairly reasonable trade for both teams...

 

While both are out of options, I'm not sure we can save a spot for Guerrero in a pen we may need depth (with options) to compensate for the lack of quality.

 

[notin]

I saw Guerrero pitch in Fenway. The guy s*** his pants. He couldn’t locate to save his life

 

 

Yes his one career inning at Fenway should be the decisive factor here.

 

Also, Kimbrel got hit hard that day, too...

[jacksonianmarch]

Guerrero isn’t the type of guy to get hit hard. He’s got an issue finding the plate

[moonslav59]

Guerrero isn’t the type of guy to get hit hard. He’s got an issue finding the plate

 

I'd try and find a guy like Guerrero but with options. Trading Swihart straight up will not solve our pen issue or even put a moderate dent into solving the problem, but he might give us another hope and prayer to add to the list.

 

To me, the trade that makes the most sense is one that has Swihart is part of a larger package that might get us someone better than Hembree or with less health issues than Thornburg. I don't have a bunch of names, but my guess is someone likes Chavis or Dalebec. Someone likes Johnson or Velazquez or really needs a 5th/6th starter type badly.

 

[notin]

Guerrero isn’t the type of guy to get hit hard. He’s got an issue finding the plate

 

 

And yet he walked fewer per nine than Aroldis Chapman...