The Pen

[notin]

The dumbest thing I heard Dombrowski say this Off-Season is he wants to Trade 1 of our Catchers.

 

Leon and Vazquez combined for 114-55. With a Cost of NOTHING. Swihart bring you nothing Back, at this point.

 

 

 

Well, he does have to trade someone.

 

Chances are we use a 7 man bullpen, as it is the standard, and frankly, one area the Sox have allowed themselves to get weaker this offseason, With our 5 man rotation, that leaves 12 pitchers.

 

With 9 starters, that leaves the Sox with 4 bench spots. Pearce, Holt, Nunez and one backup catcher. One.

 

If Pedroia is on the DL, then we can fit both. But what if he isn't? If he can play, he will and he should. And if he can, someone has to go. Also, I don't think any of these 5 candidates for the bench have any options left. Sources disagree as to whether or not Holt has one, but it really doesn't matter. The Sox are NOT going to send Holt to Pawtucket to keep Swihart on the roster.

 

Swihart is probably the likeliest candidate to be dealt, but he isn't going to bring much back. The Sox have tried that already and it's not like he has done much to make any GM re-think his opinion of Blake. Tht leaves the last option of simply releasing Swihart, which is certainly a possibility.

 

But if Pedroia is on the DL, look at the Sox bench, They would have a 1B in Pearce or Moreland (whichever one was not starting ), a 2B/3B player in either Holt or Nunez (whichever one was not starting ), a backup catcher in Leon and ... another backup catcher in Swihart who has had limited experience with even more limited success at other positions. Do we want a bench with maybe a reserve outfielder? Or a defensively capable SS?

 

JD Martinez right now is the fourth outfielder, but that doesn't help in-game replacements. If Cora ever pinch hits for, say, Bradley, do we his glove replaced in the field by Holt/Nunez/Swihart? Or if Bogaerts has to leave a game, who covers SS?

 

I know this bench worked out fine last year, but that doesn't mean it can't be improved upon and made more capable. Defense is the primary expectation from bench players, since bench players who can hit are typically starters.

 

Remember when Cora was forced to go deep into his bench in Game 3 of the World Series and we had a horrific offensively-challenged lineup featuring both Vazquez and Swihart? Like many Sox fans, I watched that whole game. But there was very rarely an inning where the Sox were coming up when I got excited about their chances to score. And that was a game in an NL park, where we did have one of our regulars on the bench and we still wound up with both Leon and Vazquez in the game for a long, long time...

Edited January 26, 2019 by notin

[moonslav59]

Well, he does have to trade someone.

 

Chances are we use a 7 man bullpen, as it is the standard, and frankly, one area the Sox have allowed themselves to get weaker this offseason, With our 5 man rotation, that leaves 12 pitchers.

 

With 9 starters, that leaves the Sox with 4 bench spots. Pearce, Holt, Nunez and one backup catcher. One.

 

If Pedroia is on the DL, then we can fit both. But what if he isn't? If he can play, he will and he should. And if he can, someone has to go. Also, I don't think any of these 5 candidates for the bench have any options left. Sources disagree as to whether or not Holt has one, but it really doesn't matter. The Sox are NOT going to send Holt to Pawtucket to keep Swihart on the roster.

 

Swihart is probably the likeliest candidate to be dealt, but he isn't going to bring much back. The Sox have tried that already and it's not like he has done much to make any GM re-think his opinion of Blake. Tht leaves the last option of simply releasing Swihart, which is certainly a possibility.

 

But if Pedroia is on the DL, look at the Sox bench, They would have a 1B in Pearce or Moreland (whichever one was not starting ), a 2B/3B player in either Holt or Nunez (whichever one was not starting ), a backup catcher in Leon and ... another backup catcher in Swihart who has had limited experience with even more limited success at other positions. Do we want a bench with maybe a reserve outfielder? Or a defensively capable SS?

 

JD Martinez right now is the fourth outfielder, but that doesn't help in-game replacements. If Cora ever pinch hits for, say, Bradley, do we his glove replaced in the field by Holt/Nunez/Swihart? Or if Bogaerts has to leave a game, who covers SS?

 

I know this bench worked out fine last year, but that doesn't mean it can't be improved upon and made more capable. Defense is the primary expectation from bench players, since bench players who can hit are typically starters.

 

Remember when Cora was forced to go deep into his bench in Game 3 of the World Series and we had a horrific offensively-challenged lineup featuring both Vazquez and Swihart? Like many Sox fans, I watched that whole game. But there was very rarely an inning where the Sox were coming up when I got excited about their chances to score. And that was a game in an NL park, where we did have one of our regulars on the bench and we still wound up with both Leon and Vazquez in the game for a long, long time...

 

I think we trade Swihart, even if it's for a single-A hopeful. Lin is the 25th man.

 

Our 4 man bench is Pearce or Moreland, Vaz or Leon, Nunez or Holt (assuming Pedey is on the DL) and Lin.

 

If Pedey is on the 25, then Lin is in AAA.

 

JD, Holt, Nunez, Pearce, Moreland and Lin can all play OF, if needed.

[harmony]

I think we trade Swihart, even if it's for a single-A hopeful. Lin is the 25th man.

With Blake Swihart out of options, I'm not sure another club would have room for Swihart on its 25-man roster.

 

One way to find out is to designate Swihart for assignment and then, barring a trade, place him on waivers. In the plausible event he goes unclaimed, Swihart may be sent to Pawtucket where he can get the reps he needs.

 

http://m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/designate-for-assignment

[jacksonianmarch]

If you’re gonna push your chips to the middle for one more season, then do it. Don’t tiptoe up to the line and stay behind it ...

 

$240M is more chips than anyone else has pushed to the middle of the table.

 

We are right up there in odds of winning it all.

 

One could ask, why don't the Yanks sign Machado and move Andujar to 1B? Why go all the way this far, then leave such a glaring weakness at 1B- a position normally associated with mega offense. Everybody on this planet knows they have this weak area. Just spend more. Push all the chips.

 

Andujar did put up a near 3WAR season, so that’s not a hole.

 

Cmon man. You have admitted your hole. Guys are coming off the board at less than $5 mil. This isn’t like a $30 mil AAV guy like Machado

[notin]

With Blake Swihart out of options, I'm not sure another club would have room for Swihart on its 25-man roster.

 

One way to find out is to designate Swihart for assignment and then, barring a trade, place him on waivers. In the plausible event he goes unclaimed, Swihart may be sent to Pawtucket where he can get the reps he needs.

 

http://m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/designate-for-assignment

 

 

And if he doesn’t clear waivers, he can be one of those guys who goes from claim to claim to claim like at least one player does every year. So far, this year’s Claim Star is Parker Bridwell...

[notin]

Andujar did put up a near 3WAR season, so that’s not a hole.

 

Cmon man. You have admitted your hole. Guys are coming off the board at less than $5 mil. This isn’t like a $30 mil AAV guy like Machado

 

 

He’s saying Bird/Voit/Bird’s DL Replacement is your hole. Andujar was part of his solution by replacing them at 1b.

 

Even without Machado, the Yankees could upgrade that position with Moustakas...

[harmony]

And if he doesn’t clear waivers, he can be one of those guys who goes from claim to claim to claim like at least one player does every year. So far, this year’s Claim Star is Parker Bridwell...

Parker Bridwell sets a high bar.

[jacksonianmarch]

He’s saying Bird/Voit/Bird’s DL Replacement is your hole. Andujar was part of his solution by replacing them at 1b.

 

Even without Machado, the Yankees could upgrade that position with Moustakas...

 

Voit put up a 1.9 WAR in 47 games

[notin]

Voit put up a 1.9 WAR in 47 games

 

 

Great. Can he maintain that .380 BABIP for a full season, too?

[jacksonianmarch]

Probably not. I’m just saying we don’t necessarily have a hole where you say we do. And the fix you’re proposing will cost over $200 mil. Also, the Yanks aren’t the ones staring at a cliff coming after this year

[notin]

Probably not. I’m just saying we don’t necessarily have a hole where you say we do. And the fix you’re proposing will cost over $200 mil. Also, the Yanks aren’t the ones staring at a cliff coming after this year

 

 

You’re not reading this thread very well today.

 

Moonslav was talking about how the Sox are already all in at $240mill and then said “you don’t see anyone saying the Tankees need to go all in and sign Machado, move Andujar to 1b and fix their hole.”

 

Not sure how you got 1) how anyone suggested the Yankees need to replace Andujar 2) how anyone actually suggested the Yankees need Machado or 3) that my only suggestion of Moustakas would cost $200mill.

 

I mean, I’m sure he’d accept a deal for that much, but he might go for less. After all, doesn’t everyone want to take less money to play for the Yankees?

[jacksonianmarch]

The Yanks don’t have a glaring hole. They have spots that could be upgraded, but there’s no glaring hole. The Sox have a glaring hole in the pen. Reasonably good pen guys are going for $5 mil or less on 1 year deals and elite pen arms are going for between $8 mil and $13 mil AAV over 2-4 years. If you’re willing to invest $240 mil in your team and a glaring hole could be adequately filled with another $5 mil, why not go that route?

[notin]

The Yanks don’t have a glaring hole. They have spots that could be upgraded, but there’s no glaring hole. The Sox have a glaring hole in the pen. Reasonably good pen guys are going for $5 mil or less on 1 year deals and elite pen arms are going for between $8 mil and $13 mil AAV over 2-4 years. If you’re willing to invest $240 mil in your team and a glaring hole could be adequately filled with another $5 mil, why not go that route?

 

 

That’s basically the goal - to fill it for $5mill or less. A few names have come off the board for that price, but none of them were blatantly obvious missed opportunities. The closest might have been Justin Wilson, who is good and has someclosing experience, but maybe his $5mill AAV was too high. Hunter Strickland was another possible miss, but maybe DD isn’t a big Hunter Strickland fan. If so, he’s not alone. Strickland didn’t get non-tendered because his last team thought he was worth every penny...

[moonslav59]

Andujar did put up a near 3WAR season, so that’s not a hole.

 

Cmon man. You have admitted your hole. Guys are coming off the board at less than $5 mil. This isn’t like a $30 mil AAV guy like Machado

 

Read my post. The hole is 1B not 3B. A sugar is a massive upgrade at 1B. Nobody is screaming for Machado on the Yanks, and you clearly have a weakness at 1B, whether you choose to agree or not.

I'm not saying you should or need to sign Machado. My point is the same argument can be made about the Yanks getting close and then stopping short of pushing all the chips in.

We just won a ring. The Yanks should have a greater sense of urgency.

If anything, it is the Sox that should be thinking longer term with the impending cliff on our doorstep.

[moonslav59]

That’s basically the goal - to fill it for $5mill or less. A few names have come off the board for that price, but none of them were blatantly obvious missed opportunities. The closest might have been Justin Wilson, who is good and has someclosing experience, but maybe his $5mill AAV was too high. Hunter Strickland was another possible miss, but maybe DD isn’t a big Hunter Strickland fan. If so, he’s not alone. Strickland didn’t get non-tendered because his last team thought he was worth every penny...

 

There are more choices.

[jacksonianmarch]

There are more choices.

 

There are, but the ones who give you more than Hembree are rapidly dropping in number. The last one I would consider an upgrade is Kelley

[moonslav59]

There are, but the ones who give you more than Hembree are rapidly dropping in number. The last one I would consider an upgrade is Kelley

 

I wasn't aware trades are forbidden in the winter.

[jacksonianmarch]

Who are you trading for with the theoretical cash limitations? I know people like to throw Iglesias out there, but he has a big contract now. You're not getting Leclerc. Throw out a name worth mentioning

[moonslav59]

We've heard the pessimism for weeks, and I'm not going to pretend I'm optimistic about our pen, especially the closer role, but when focusing on a team's weakest we sometimes are easily persuaded into thinking weakest means weak. Our pen is certainly weaker than the Yanks and several other teams, but it may still be top 15 or middle tier (11-20th best). It will likely be average. Not great: not horrible.

 

Here's an optimistic look at our 2019 pen.

 

1) We might not be done with winter additions. We could sign Kelley or trade for someone seemingly better suited for the closer role than anyone we have now.

2) We could see someone step up and fill the role, like Uehara did.

3) We could make an in-season trade, if needed.

 

A positive light shown on what we currently have as pen options, assuming our 5 starters (Sale, Price, Porcello, Eovaldi & ERod) are healthy most of the year:

 

Matt Barnes:

He's 28. He had an amazing 14.0 K/9 rate in 62 IP last year.

His K rate has improved every year, as has his K/BB ratio.

His ERA and FIP have improved for 3 straight years to 2.71 in '18.

He had his lowest HR/9 rate ever (0.7) in 2018.

His 2.4 WAR since 2017 places him 22nd out of 141 qualifying RP'ers.

His 3.07 xFIP ranks 20th.

15th 2.98 Treinen

17th 3.00 Osuna

20th 3.07 Barnes

26th 3.20 Soria

44th 3.59 MMinor

56th 3.72 Streckenrider

63rd 3.85 Hembree

64th 3.88 Colome

68th 3.91 Rodney

71st 3.93 Ottavino

78th 4.00 C Allen

84th 4.04 Leclerc

85th 4.40 J Wilson

87th 4.05 Joe Kelly

93rd 4.13 B Brach

101st 4.24 Herrera

110th 4.41 A Wilson

136th 5.01 Strickland

 

Maybe Barnes can improve one more year. I'm not sure some of these recent signees are any better anyways. His playoff numbers are a awesome, but 10 IP is a pretty small sample size (0.87 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP).

 

Ryan Brasier:

He's 31. His 34 IP is pretty tiny.

His 1.60 ERA and 2.83 FIP were pretty awesome.

He had a 4.14 K/BB ratio, as was his 0.772 WHIP.

He had a 1.04 playoff ERA, but his WHIP was 1.39- not good.

 

Of course, Brasier is a huge question mark, but the guy looked tough. There's hope he can do well for at least another year.

 

Heath Hembree:

He just turned 30, and although his 2018 season was disappointing, he pulled it together for the post season (0.00/ 1.071 in 4.1 IP).

His K/9 rate of 11.4 was a career high, and he's improved 3 years in a row.

His 1.333 WHIP last year was not great, but it's better than his career or 2018 numbers.

 

It's hard to get optimistic over Hembree, but he does offer some hope.

 

Tyler Thornburg:

He's 30. He had one super great year back in 2016 before the injury.

That 2016 is probably the only thing to be optimistic about.

In 2016, he had a 2.15 ERA. a 0.94 WHIP and a 12.1 K/9 rate.

He has amazing career reverse splits:

.556 vs LHBs

.760 vs RHBs

 

Steven Wright, Brian Johnson & Hector Velazquez:

Wright has had several flashes of greatness, and when he's healthy, he's been very good almost all the time. Johnson and Velazquez showed some promise last year but will have to make major steps forward to fill important roles on this team. The good think is, we may just need one or two to come through.

 

Possible Help:

Brandon Workman, Bobby Poyner, Erasmo Ramirez, Marcus Walden and others.

These are real prayers, but sometimes our prayers are answered.

 

[moonslav59]

Who are you trading for with the theoretical cash limitations? I know people like to throw Iglesias out there, but he has a big contract now. You're not getting Leclerc. Throw out a name worth mentioning

 

There's nobody as good or better than Kelley?

 

I'm far from an expert on players on other teams, but my guess is there are plenty out there. The issue is the price we pay and if other teams value Johnson or Velazquez, Chavis or Dalbec and maybe Swihart as a throw in.

 

Here might be a couple options that are possible upgrades on Hembree:

 

Lou Trivino (Oak)

 

Adam Conley (Mia)

 

Edited January 27, 2019 by moonslav59

[notin]

Who are you trading for with the theoretical cash limitations? I know people like to throw Iglesias out there, but he has a big contract now. You're not getting Leclerc. Throw out a name worth mentioning

 

Mychal Givens, Will Smith, Joe Jimenez, Fernando Rodney

Edited January 27, 2019 by notin

[harmony]

Mychal Givens, Will Smith, Joe Jimenez, Fernando Rodney

Whom could the Red Sox trade to land one of these potential closers?

 

Mychal Givens comes with three years of team control and a 2019 salary of $2.15 million.

 

Will Smith is owed $4.23 million in his final year of team control.

 

Joe Jimenez has five years of team control, earning the league minimum in 2019.

 

Fernando Rodney will earn $5.25 million in the final year of his contract but I doubt Oakland wants to dismantle its bullpen coming off a 97-win season.

Edited January 27, 2019 by harmony

[harmony]

There's nobody as good or better than Kelley?

 

I'm far from an expert on players on other teams, but my guess is there are plenty out there. The issue is the price we pay and if other teams value Johnson or Velazquez, Chavis or Dalbec and maybe Swihart as a throw in.

 

Here might be a couple options that are possible upgrades on Hembree:

 

Lou Trivino (Oak)

 

Adam Conley (Mia)

 

Adam Conley is an interesting option with four years of team control and a 2019 salary of $1.13 million.

 

Heath Hembree has three years of team control and a 2019 salary of $1.31 million.

 

Steamer projects Conley with a 2019 WAR of a negative 0.1 WAR coming off a season of 0.4 fWAR in 50.2 innings.

 

Steamer projects Hembree with a 2019 WAR of 0.2 in 55 innings coming off a season of 0.2 fWAR in 60 innings.

 

Marcel projects Conley with a 2019 ERA of 4.56 in 50.2 innings and Hembree with a 2019 ERA of 3.98 in 61 innings.

 

Conley is a 28-year-old lefthander from the Seattle area while Hembree is a 30-year-old righthander.

 

If the Miami Marlins trade J.T. Realmuto perhaps the Fish would be interested in another Super Two, Blake Swihart, who comes with four years of team control and a 2019 salary of $910,000.

 

Or not.

 

I question whether the Red Sox can afford six years of Lou Trivino and whether the Athletics will dismantle their bullpen coming off a 97-win season.

[Kimmi]

Why is it odd, when the team just outspent everyone by $40M and won a ring?

 

It seems like a good time to say let's cut spending, but actually, we are not cutting spending. We are spending close to what we did last year and still ahead of everyone.

 

I get the argument about why Pearce and not a RP'er, but I totally get having a restricted budget.

 

(It's not like our restricted budget is at $100M or $80M. We're still way ahead of almost every team... way, way, way ahead.)

 

I think asking Henry to spend more is more unreasonable than questioning why DD let the closer position turn out to be our weakest position.

 

 

First off, I am not asking or expecting Henry to spend more. Quite the contrary, actually. I think it is perfectly reasonable for Henry to want to reset and save the tax penalties, even though he can well afford to pay them.

 

I just think it's odd that he would choose not to 'go for it' this year when we have largely the same team returning this year and we have a lot of question marks in our future starting next year.

 

I have said many times that I am fine going into the season with the team as it is and that we should not spend big on a reliever.

[Kimmi]

It's a strategy that's *questionable*, I would say. When something is questionable you can have arguments for and against, which is exactly what we've got.

 

There's still a long way to go until opening day. But it seems more and more likely a trade will be made for a reliever.

 

They should also give Buchholz a call and ask him if he wants a shot at another ring with the Red Sox, starting the year in the pen and we'll see what happens as we go.

 

!!!

[Kimmi]

The Red Sox will likely sign a minor league deal with a reliever who will go on to win this year's Reliever of the Year Award.

 

Or not.

 

!!!

[Kimmi]

I'd actually lean on the side of unlikely with that one.

 

The best relievers often come out of nowhere.

[Kimmi]

The thing is , you have spent all this money with the goal of winning the championship . Why stop here and jeopardize it ? It makes no sense to me . Not asking for an unlimited budget , just what it takes to have a bullpen that won't be our Achilles heel. I don't see how anyone can downplay the importance of the pen in baseball today. Look at the Yankees. They already had Chapman and Betances , but they still went out and signed Britton and Ottavino . Two guys that we sure could have used . We have a rare opportunity to repeat. Why not go for it ?

 

Once again, no one is downplaying the importance of the pen. Some of us are just saying that you don't have to spend big on the pen to build a great one.

[Kimmi]

Probably not. I’m just saying we don’t necessarily have a hole where you say we do. And the fix you’re proposing will cost over $200 mil. Also, the Yanks aren’t the ones staring at a cliff coming after this year

 

The Yanks are fine offensively.

 

Their weakness will be in their starting pitching.

[Kimmi]

The Yanks don’t have a glaring hole. They have spots that could be upgraded, but there’s no glaring hole. The Sox have a glaring hole in the pen. Reasonably good pen guys are going for $5 mil or less on 1 year deals and elite pen arms are going for between $8 mil and $13 mil AAV over 2-4 years. If you’re willing to invest $240 mil in your team and a glaring hole could be adequately filled with another $5 mil, why not go that route?

 

The Sox have no more of a glaring hole in their pen than the Yankees have in their rotation.

 

As I've said before, I rather have a strong rotation and a mediocre pen than a strong pen and a mediocre rotation.