The Pen

[harmony]

I thought Strickland would have been a good buy low candidate. At this point, it's clubhouse cancer Kelley or bust it seems

This Seattle fan applauds the Hunter Strickland signing but the newest Mariner has his own character issues:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xiso0qrhD4E

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Clearly he does. But Strickland is the most likely of the rebound group to do so, IMO. His stuff is great, he just lost command

[notin]

I thought Strickland would have been a good buy low candidate. At this point, it's clubhouse cancer Kelley or bust it seems

 

 

Did Greg Holland, Alex Wilson, and Nick Vincent all retire?

[Kimmi]

I'll keep an eye on Blown Leads, going into the 7th inning. Not 1 run leads, that always happen. I'll be looking at a higher number, where you should very rarely lose or tie it up. 3 run leads.

 

Please do. I bet it won't be much different than it is with a top rated closer like Kimbrel in the pen.

[Kimmi]

I know you're licking your chops, but you really need to wait until this all shakes out.

 

There should be no chop licking from Yankees fans.

 

The Red Sox are still the team to beat.

[Kimmi]

"Saves" is a stupid word. It refers to old Days of Baseball. Where a Starter, would go 8 innings, and a Closer would be used for 1 inning. Todays game has changed so much, because of analytics. 100 Pitch Count started it.

Todays game a Save starts as soon as the Starter leaves a game with a lead, usually going into the 7th, and so on.

Todays game usually have 3 guys saving a game. Not 1, anymore.

 

The "Save" is one of the worst stats in baseball.

[Kimmi]

Barring something very surprising at this point, Red Sox management seems to have chosen a very strange time to draw a line in the sand on spending, and I have a hard time believing this is something Dombrowski would decide to self-impose absent some directive from ownership to do so. Again, given the strength of the rest of the roster and the uncertainty ahead in 2020-21, it makes all the sense in the world to push all your chips to the middle now for another shot at a championship, and I can't imagine this is lost on Dombrowski or that the threat of losing ten spots in the draft is something that would seriously deter him.

 

^^ This.

 

As I've posted before, I'm okay with going 'cheap' on the BP, but if there is indeed a directive for Dombrowski not to spend more than $2-3 million on a reliever, what an odd time to do it.

 

It just doesn't make any sense.

[cp176]

Actually some of his loudest complaints have come from fans who were his staunchest supporters as recently as November...

 

Really - silly me - I don't see it that way at all.

[cp176]

Yes , it can be a thankless job. And Dave has done very , very well . But the fact is that he has done next to nothing about the bullpen this off season . That is a legitimate concern for many of us .

 

I don't disagree with this at all. In an effort to discredit a very successful man though, now we hear suggested that it is DD and not JH who doesn't want to spend the money . Lame joke .

[jacksonianmarch]

Did Greg Holland, Alex Wilson, and Nick Vincent all retire?

 

Greg Holland lost velocity and has sucked of late. Wilson was a homer machine last year with two straight years of high FIP. Vincent has pitched in two very good pitchers parks yet he’s still a high homer rate guy. He’s never posted an xFIP below 3.94. If that’s the best you got, then that makes me smile

[moonslav59]

Greg Holland lost velocity and has sucked of late. Wilson was a homer machine last year with two straight years of high FIP. Vincent has pitched in two very good pitchers parks yet he’s still a high homer rate guy. He’s never posted an xFIP below 3.94. If that’s the best you got, then that makes me smile

 

I thought your criteria was just that the guy had to have 2 good years at some point in their careers... like with Thornburg & Smith.

[moonslav59]

^^ This.

 

As I've posted before, I'm okay with going 'cheap' on the BP, but if there is indeed a directive for Dombrowski not to spend more than $2-3 million on a reliever, what an odd time to do it.

 

It just doesn't make any sense.

 

Why is it odd, when the team just outspent everyone by $40M and won a ring?

 

It seems like a good time to say let's cut spending, but actually, we are not cutting spending. We are spending close to what we did last year and still ahead of everyone.

 

I get the argument about why Pearce and not a RP'er, but I totally get having a restricted budget.

 

(It's not like our restricted budget is at $100M or $80M. We're still way ahead of almost every team... way, way, way ahead.)

 

I think asking Henry to spend more is more unreasonable than questioning why DD let the closer position turn out to be our weakest position.

 

[Bellhorn04]

It's a strategy that's *questionable*, I would say. When something is questionable you can have arguments for and against, which is exactly what we've got.

 

There's still a long way to go until opening day. But it seems more and more likely a trade will be made for a reliever.

 

They should also give Buchholz a call and ask him if he wants a shot at another ring with the Red Sox, starting the year in the pen and we'll see what happens as we go.

[harmony]

Greg Holland lost velocity and has sucked of late. Wilson was a homer machine last year with two straight years of high FIP. Vincent has pitched in two very good pitchers parks yet he’s still a high homer rate guy. He’s never posted an xFIP below 3.94. If that’s the best you got, then that makes me smile

Seattle's ballpark (now T-Mobile Park) surrendered more home runs than Fenway Park last year:

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/year/2018/sort/HRFactor

 

... which may be a reflection on weak Mariner pitching although the same was true in 2017:

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/year/2017/sort/HRFactor

[harmony]

The Red Sox will likely sign a minor league deal with a reliever who will go on to win this year's Reliever of the Year Award.

 

Or not.

[Bellhorn04]

The Red Sox will likely sign a minor league deal with a reliever who will go on to win this year's Reliever of the Year Award.

 

Or not.

 

I'd actually lean on the side of unlikely with that one.

[harmony]

I'd actually lean on the side of unlikely with that one.

Careful ... you might be called "the cooler.":)

[moonslav59]

Seattle's ballpark (now T-Mobile Park) surrendered more home runs than Fenway Park last year:

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/year/2018/sort/HRFactor

 

... which may be a reflection on weak Mariner pitching although the same was true in 2017:

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/year/2017/sort/HRFactor

 

Let's take away the Sox and M's pitching and look at their offenses:

 

Sox HRs on offense:

102 Home

106 Away

 

M's HRs on offense:

84 Home

92 Away

[dgalehouse]

Why is it odd, when the team just outspent everyone by $40M and won a ring?

 

It seems like a good time to say let's cut spending, but actually, we are not cutting spending. We are spending close to what we did last year and still ahead of everyone.

 

I get the argument about why Pearce and not a RP'er, but I totally get having a restricted budget.

 

(It's not like our restricted budget is at $100M or $80M. We're still way ahead of almost every team... way, way, way ahead.)

 

I think asking Henry to spend more is more unreasonable than questioning why DD let the closer position turn out to be our weakest position.

 

The thing is , you have spent all this money with the goal of winning the championship . Why stop here and jeopardize it ? It makes no sense to me . Not asking for an unlimited budget , just what it takes to have a bullpen that won't be our Achilles heel. I don't see how anyone can downplay the importance of the pen in baseball today. Look at the Yankees. They already had Chapman and Betances , but they still went out and signed Britton and Ottavino . Two guys that we sure could have used . We have a rare opportunity to repeat. Why not go for it ?

[moonslav59]

The thing is , you have spent all this money with the goal of winning the championship . Why stop here and jeopardize it ? It makes no sense to me . Not asking for an unlimited budget , just what it takes to have a bullpen that won't be our Achilles heel. I don't see how anyone can downplay the importance of the pen in baseball today. Look at the Yankees. They already had Chapman and Betances , but they still went out and signed Britton and Ottavino . Two guys that we sure could have used . We have a rare opportunity to repeat. Why not go for it ?

 

I get your point, but think of it this way: maybe Henry wanted the budget to be at about $220M, and he's already spent way more than he wanted to just to get us as good as we were last year and are now. Asking him to just go a little higher just because we are so close might look unreasonable within this context, right?

 

The, once we get a big RP'er, what if someone gets hurt? Can we expect you and others to trot out the old "We are so close, so why not get one more piece?"

 

Nobody is thrilled with our pen, but it's not horrible, and we are so solid at other positions, I'm not sure why we need to be great everywhere. Sure, it would help. Sure, it would improve our odds at winning in 2019, but we super maxed out last year. The same argument could be made every year. Keep everybody. Sign anyone we need. On and on...

[harmony]

Reliever George Kontos reportedly is off the board:

 

[notin]

I'd actually lean on the side of unlikely with that one.

 

Oh ye of little faith in Erasmo...

[moonslav59]

Pen arms and possible pen arms in our current system:

 

Listed by soxprospects.com

 

Relievers

Matt Barnes

Ryan Brasier

Heath Hembree

Tyler Thornburg

Brandon Workman

Bobby Poyner

Colten Brewer

Zach Putman

Carson Smith

Austin Maddox

Travis Lakins

Josh Taylor

(Durbin Feltman on A-Ball list)

 

Swing Men

Brian Johnson

Hector Velazquez

Steven Wright

Marcus Walden

Josh Smith

 

Starting Pitchers (depth)

Erasmo Ramirez

Ryan Weber

Mike Shawaryn

Chandler Shepherd

D Hernandez

 

 

[cp176]

I'm still on the "Kimbrel is coming back to Boston" train.

[S5Dewey]

 

They should also give Buchholz a call and ask him if he wants a shot at another ring with the Red Sox, starting the year in the pen and we'll see what happens as we go.

 

I'm fully on board with this. Offer him a contract with as little as the Sox can get away with paying him and load it with incentives. Low risk, high reward.

[jacksonianmarch]

I am still baffled by the process. If you’re gonna push your chips to the middle for one more season, then do it. Don’t tiptoe up to the line and stay behind it when you’ve got a hole. Right now, you’re pushing a good reliever into a role he’s never been in before (Barnes). That’s fine, he may be really good there. But anytime you do that, you have to have another guy who is capable waiting in the wings. The only other “capable” guy from last year was Brasier, and he has no track record and peripherals that point to a vastly different pitcher than the one you saw. For everyone pointing at Voit on the Yanks as a SSS warrior and touting Brasier, you’re being a hypocrite. But let’s say Brasier is what his peripherals show, a guy with a high 3’s ERA who ends up being good enough. What happens if the workload causes an injury and Barnes or Brasier miss time? Let’s say it’s early in the year, before deadline deals materialize. Who’s your 1-2-3 in the pen then? You’re gonna rely on Hembree? Workman? Your pen has no contingency. Kimbrel’s durability allowed you to play around with your bridge. Yeah, Kimbrel has a bad stretch in the playoffs, but he was good during the year. Who’s taking his durable effective reliever role?

 

It isn’t like your team is built on a bunch of SP horses. The only guy you can pencil in for 6IP+ per start is Porcello until Sale proves he’s healthy. And those two guys are the only two capable of continually handing the ball off in the 7th or later. The other 3 averaged less than 6IP per start. You’re gonna have to get 10+ outs 60% of the time at least from your pen.

[OH FOY]

The dumbest thing I heard Dombrowski say this Off-Season is he wants to Trade 1 of our Catchers.

 

Leon and Vazquez combined for 114-55. With a Cost of NOTHING. Swihart bring you nothing Back, at this point.

Edited January 26, 2019 by OH FOY!

[notin]

I am still baffled by the process. If you’re gonna push your chips to the middle for one more season, then do it. Don’t tiptoe up to the line and stay behind it when you’ve got a hole. Right now, you’re pushing a good reliever into a role he’s never been in before (Barnes). That’s fine, he may be really good there. But anytime you do that, you have to have another guy who is capable waiting in the wings. The only other “capable” guy from last year was Brasier, and he has no track record and peripherals that point to a vastly different pitcher than the one you saw. For everyone pointing at Voit on the Yanks as a SSS warrior and touting Brasier, you’re being a hypocrite. But let’s say Brasier is what his peripherals show, a guy with a high 3’s ERA who ends up being good enough. What happens if the workload causes an injury and Barnes or Brasier miss time? Let’s say it’s early in the year, before deadline deals materialize. Who’s your 1-2-3 in the pen then? You’re gonna rely on Hembree? Workman? Your pen has no contingency. Kimbrel’s durability allowed you to play around with your bridge. Yeah, Kimbrel has a bad stretch in the playoffs, but he was good during the year. Who’s taking his durable effective reliever role?

 

It isn’t like your team is built on a bunch of SP horses. The only guy you can pencil in for 6IP+ per start is Porcello until Sale proves he’s healthy. And those two guys are the only two capable of continually handing the ball off in the 7th or later. The other 3 averaged less than 6IP per start. You’re gonna have to get 10+ outs 60% of the time at least from your pen.

 

 

You do realize everyone on planet Earth thinks the Sox need another reliver except DD, right? It;s not like we have a vote here or DD is coming to these boards for ideas (he isn't).

 

The only thing I can say about the subject is DD does have a rather long history of building bullpens with limited resoruces. Acquiring Kimbrel the way he did was his least Dombreowki-esque move since coming to Boston. He has had mixed results. He started the relief career of Trevor Hoffman (who was a shortstop), and used closers like Rob Nen, Matt Mantei, Antonio Alfonseca, Braden Looper, and Fernando Rodney, none of whom were established closers at the time. But then he's also had his failures in the role as well, and made some flat out dumb moves like trying to use what was left of 39yo Joe Nathan.

 

I doubt he is done, and his solution might look really stupid in March. But looking stupid in March really doesn't mean anything...

[notin]

There will be no Junichi Tazawa reunion.

 

I am not crushed by this...

[moonslav59]

If you’re gonna push your chips to the middle for one more season, then do it. Don’t tiptoe up to the line and stay behind it ...

 

$240M is more chips than anyone else has pushed to the middle of the table.

 

We are right up there in odds of winning it all.

 

One could ask, why don't the Yanks sign Machado and move Andujar to 1B? Why go all the way this far, then leave such a glaring weakness at 1B- a position normally associated with mega offense. Everybody on this planet knows they have this weak area. Just spend more. Push all the chips.