A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[Kimmi]

So true. I only made one post (I think) in the GT then walked away from it until the 9th. The reactions in the 8th (and then the 9th) were priceless!

 

Oh ye of little faith! LOL

 

I understand the emotions and the overreactions of the game threads. I really do. I have my moments myself.

 

But I just don't have the energy to post in game threads during the games. It takes too much out of me.

[Kimmi]

We'd have never heard the end of it, if we lost the game.

 

It makes me wonder, if the "hindsighters" now think they were good choices, of if Cora just got lucky.

 

I do have a question: is Hembree hurt?

 

The guy has been pretty good, but we hardly use him.

 

He's only faced 12 batters since May 29th (19 days)

 

In his last 8 games:

 

5.2 IP

0 ER

4H

0 BB

8 Ks

 

He hasn't been used since June 10th.

 

 

 

Cora didn't have a whole lot of choice in relievers last night. Most of the relievers were not available.

 

Basically, his only choice was between leaving Porcello in for the 8th or bringing Brewer in. His rationale behind going with Brewer, which included asking Porcello how he felt, was solid.

[Kimmi]

Pythagorean W-L records to date:

 

Yankees 43-28 (.606)

Rays 46-26 (.639)

Red Sox 42-32 (.567)

Rangers 39-33 (.542)

Athletics 39-34 (.534)

Guardians 36-35 (.507)

 

Two observations to be made here:

 

1. The Yankees are forever the luckiest team around.

2. The Red Sox are right in the thick of things.

 

It needs to be said again. Back to back to back to back.

[Kimmi]

if you dont think brewer was luckier than a four leaf clover inside a pot of gold at the end of a rainbow with a horseshoe in his hand then you didnt watch that inning.....

 

Brewer has really good stuff. The results have not been there, but the peripherals are.

 

I'm not saying that there wasn't some luck involved (there almost always is), but Brewer was able to induce weak contact when he needed it.

[Kimmi]

Brewer and Cora caught a big break when the Twins had the league's leading hitter sacrifice bunt with two on and no one out . Incredibly dumb move .

 

Mark this date down in history.

 

Denny agrees with the nerds!

[vegasbob]

The roster manipulation will be coming to a crescendo relatively soon as Pearce starts his monor league assignment. Barring other injuries , if and when Pearce declares himself ready to go, there is only one likely option---send Marco Hernandez down. Hernandez has acquitted himself ok in a very small sample, but there isn't much of an alternative, unless the Sox go to 12 pitchers. It really becomes a crunch when Mitch Moreland's back into it. That re-addition causes other dominoes to fall, such as Chavis to second base, Holt/Nunez to the bench or vice versa.

 

Eventually Eovaldi will be back which begs the 12 or 13 pitcher choice again. Josh Taylor or Mike Shawaryn (or both) go back to Pawtucket as the musical chairs continue. With Josh or Mike, the decision will not be as difficult as with the position players. Oh, and Heath Hembree will also be back unless there is some actual UCL concerns, which the team should know, but we won't til it pops.

 

Then the trade deadline will become the topic as we ease into July in less than two weeks, and especially if the Sox keep closing ground on the Rays and Yankees. Stay tuned.

Edited June 18, 2019 by vegasbob

[dgalehouse]

Mark this date down in history.

 

Denny agrees with the nerds!

 

I prefer to think of it this way : Finally , the nerds agree with Denny .

[moonslav59]

not sure if i would call it a strength just yet. but it certainly has not been a weakness. not too many of our L's can be laid at the feet of the pen thus far this season. but they havent been "lockdown" either. where do the numbers place our pen thus far?

 

It doesn't look like a strength, but it has been, so far this season.

 

I would not bet that continues.

[moonslav59]

An update on how our pitchers do with each catcher:

 

Overall CERA numbers are deceptive, since our catcher pair with different starters very often.

 

CERA

3.55 with Leon

4.41 with Vaz

6.17 with Swihart

 

OPS Against by catcher (listed in order of most PAs per catcher)

Only 20+ PA sample sizes listed.

 

Leon

.658 Porcello (258 PAs)

.526 Sale (250)

.901 Brewer (49)

.684 Hembree (45)

.619 Workman (35)

1.008 Walden (31)

.172 Brasier (29)

.883 ERod (29)

1.041 Smith (28)

1.010 Barnes (27)

.500 Price (22)

 

Vaz

.727 ERod (285)

.684 Price (225)

.876 Sale (114)

.910 Velazquez (112)

.457 Walden (104)

.773 Porcello (95)

.326 Workman (91)

.863 Weber (88)

.561 Barnes (83)

.689 Brewer (82)

.847 Brasier (79)

.568 Hembree (55)

1.015 Thornburg (52)

.831 Eovaldi (49)

.825 Smith (40)

.882 Johnson (34)

.850 DHern (30)

1.091 Lakins (29)

.440 Shawaryn (27)

.857 Taylor (21)

1.246 Poyner (21)

Ina ll fairness to Vaz, he catches the scrubs way more than Leon.

 

Swihart

.975 Eovaldi (44)

.423 Velazquez (26)

1.338 Porcello (26)

1.077 ERod (24)

.769 Walden (23)

 

 

[vegasbob]

Too bad there is not unlimited re-substitution at catcher, so we could go with the best matchups.

[Maxbialystock]

Impossible not to be upbeat after last night's huge road win against a good team with a very good lineup. Optimists like moonslav and kimmi should take a bow now that the rest of us are beginning to see the light.

 

Still plenty of murkiness, however. Rotation is up and down, especially the 5th starter, but even Price stunk his last time out. Consequently, a need for 8 relievers who get used a lot and are regularly shuttled back and forth from Pawtucket. Cora definitely still has his work cut out for him even though the lineup card is getting a little easier to fill out. Except maybe for catcher, as moonslav's latest CERA stats suggest. Vazquez is much the better hitter, but Leon definitely helps the pitching--last night being just one more example of the magic he and a pitcher on his game can make.

 

While I've been around for all of the John Henry era, for which I am grateful, my mind can't let go of what came before. Consequently, I find it easier than some to be ecstatic when the Sox can win 6 in a row to go 6 games over .500 and get back into the hunt. The memory of last year makes that even easier because we should all be reminded that some awfully good players are still on the roster.

[kenmeister]

Impossible not to be upbeat after last night's huge road win against a good team with a very good lineup.

 

To be honest I was shocked to see them win 2-0 against the Twins. Gives me hope, but after Price's last disastrous start I did double down on my view of them as a team that will never exceed .550. Happy to be wrong of course!

[Maxbialystock]

Too bad there is not unlimited re-substitution at catcher, so we could go with the best matchups.

 

No re-substitutions rule is one of the great features of MLB.

[oldtimer]

To be honest I was shocked to see them win 2-0 against the Twins. Gives me hope, but after Price's last disastrous start I did double down on my view of them as a team that will never exceed .550. Happy to be wrong of course!

 

I am hoping for a series win against the twins. Getting the first by going 2-0 was an excellent start. Win the series and they make up ground on either the Rays or the Yankees. Either would be welcome.

[Slasher9]

Pythagorean W-L records to date:

 

Yankees 43-28 (.606)

Rays 46-26 (.639)

Red Sox 42-32 (.567)

Rangers 39-33 (.542)

Athletics 39-34 (.534)

Guardians 36-35 (.507)

 

Two observations to be made here:

 

1. The Yankees are forever the luckiest team around.

2. The Red Sox are right in the thick of things.

 

It needs to be said again. Back to back to back to back.

 

PREACH sister kimmi

[Nick]

 

Dave Dombrowski's dilemma: What if Red Sox need to acquire starter instead of reliever?

 

I feel the same way......Fifth starter trumps over bullpen depth.

 

Here's the part that worries me.....barely 3+ innings per start.

 

The group of Hector Velazquez, Ryan Weber, Josh Smith, Darwinzon Hernandez, and Johnson has combined to go 2-7 with a 7.31 ERA in 14 starts covering just 44.1 innings. In addition to getting hammered, they've only averaged a shade over three innings a start, which has killed the bullpen.

[d-money]

To be honest I was shocked to see them win 2-0 against the Twins. Gives me hope, but after Price's last disastrous start I did double down on my view of them as a team that will never exceed .550. Happy to be wrong of course!

 

The next two games are winnable. Just keep winning and try and get over 500 by 10 games.

[Maxbialystock]

The next two games are winnable. Just keep winning and try and get over 500 by 10 games.

 

Winnable, yes, but give the Twins a little credit. They have lost series this year, but never been swept. They swept Tampa 2 weeks ago, but lost 2 of 3 to the Yankees over a month ago--right after they took 2 of 3 from the Astros.

 

Still, a sweep would be nice, and the Sox are playing excellent baseball. Last night Porcello went beyond excellent.

[Kimmi]

I prefer to think of it this way : Finally , the nerds agree with Denny .

 

Touche'.

[Kimmi]

Impossible not to be upbeat after last night's huge road win against a good team with a very good lineup. Optimists like moonslav and kimmi should take a bow now that the rest of us are beginning to see the light.

 

Still plenty of murkiness, however. Rotation is up and down, especially the 5th starter, but even Price stunk his last time out. Consequently, a need for 8 relievers who get used a lot and are regularly shuttled back and forth from Pawtucket. Cora definitely still has his work cut out for him even though the lineup card is getting a little easier to fill out. Except maybe for catcher, as moonslav's latest CERA stats suggest. Vazquez is much the better hitter, but Leon definitely helps the pitching--last night being just one more example of the magic he and a pitcher on his game can make.

 

While I've been around for all of the John Henry era, for which I am grateful, my mind can't let go of what came before. Consequently, I find it easier than some to be ecstatic when the Sox can win 6 in a row to go 6 games over .500 and get back into the hunt. The memory of last year makes that even easier because we should all be reminded that some awfully good players are still on the roster.

 

There is still a long battle to be fought. Our recent win streak by no means makes a lock for the playoffs, much less for the division. That said, wanting to blow up the team in mid June is a little silly. Not saying that to you personally, but in general.

 

As Moon always says, we should try not to be so reactionary after a couple of losses (or wins). It's a long season.

 

We haven't really fired on all cylinders yet. I like our chances for the playoffs, for the division, and for the World Series.

[Kimmi]

The next two games are winnable. Just keep winning and try and get over 500 by 10 games.

 

One game at a time.

[illinoisredsox]

Too bad there is not unlimited re-substitution at catcher, so we could go with the best matchups.

 

It could be done but would require using the two catchers in a different position at the same time. We know Vazquez has played 3rd, 2nd and 1st but I don’t think Leon could play anywhere else except maybe 1st.

[devildavid]

There is still a long battle to be fought. Our recent win streak by no means makes a lock for the playoffs, much less for the division. That said, wanting to blow up the team in mid June is a little silly. Not saying that to you personally, but in general.

 

As Moon always says, we should try not to be so reactionary after a couple of losses (or wins). It's a long season.

 

We haven't really fired on all cylinders yet. I like our chances for the playoffs, for the division, and for the World Series.

 

I think the Sox are solid contenders for a wild card spot.

[OH FOY]

Logan Allen had a nice debut last night, beat the Brewers 7 innings, 3 hits, 0 runs.

[Bellhorn04]

Logan Allen had a nice debut last night, beat the Brewers 7 innings, 3 hits, 0 runs.

 

Thanks Dave!

[oldtimer]

One game at a time.

 

I will chock this series as a success provided we win tonight. We have played better of late but still need to get hitting with RISP.

[d-money]

This team is too damn inconsistent. Last night should have been a w.

[vegasbob]

There is so much comment on WTF Cora and the makeup of The Pen , you would think there is no other issues on this team. But maybe the real problem is in the 12 guys on the hitting roster failing to perform on any consistent basis , including Betts, Benintendi and JD Martinez. JDM's totals to date are within his historical range but recently he has posted some ridiculous K numbers and looked bad doing it ( 15 of last 34 AB's). Hard to be too critical of Chavis as a raw rookie but he is nearing a 43% K rate over his last 113 AB's. Pearce and Moreland are MIA, and other than Mitch's brief HR run were not hitting well. Nunez is Nunez, as is Leon. What did we expect, a Sam Travis breakthrough?

 

Devers and Bogaerts have carried the load, with improvement from Vazquez, and some over the last 30 days from JBJr after a two month tour of the .150s . Brock Holt is posting some numbers most recently but skipped about 50 games getting his kid out of his eyes.

 

The bench has no legit PH'er on it , and no Of'er has a BA over .269, but Beni combines that with an OPS of .776. Andrew is a singles machine. Mookie at least cracks the .800's, and did get the fair pole potential game winner last night, all for naught.

 

The focus may remain on Cora's decisions and bolstering the pen, but Tim Hyers needs to look at his job too. He can't hit for them but between his work and Cora's experience, some one needs to get about 6 of the 12 hitters to wake up.

[Maxbialystock]

This team is too damn inconsistent. Last night should have been a w.

 

Perhaps. But, frankly, if there can such a thing as a good loss, I think last night was it. The defense--especially JBJ and Vazquez who both literally prevented runs--was excellent. Price was better than I expected and even a little lucky because they were hitting his changeup hard. The bullpen was again very good despite the final inning and despite Workman (ERA 1.82) giving up the 1 run in the 8th. The lineup did in fact get the Sox a lead 3 different times even though they were 1 for 13 with RISP. This was a 5:45 marathon and their 15th game in 14 days, and their is no doubt in my mind they were battling the whole game.

[moonslav59]

There is so much comment on WTF Cora and the makeup of The Pen , you would think there is no other issues on this team. But maybe the real problem is in the 12 guys on the hitting roster failing to perform on any consistent basis , including Betts, Benintendi and JD Martinez. JDM's totals to date are within his historical range but recently he has posted some ridiculous K numbers and looked bad doing it ( 15 of last 34 AB's). Hard to be too critical of Chavis as a raw rookie but he is nearing a 43% K rate over his last 113 AB's. Pearce and Moreland are MIA, and other than Mitch's brief HR run were not hitting well. Nunez is Nunez, as is Leon. What did we expect, a Sam Travis breakthrough?

 

Devers and Bogaerts have carried the load, with improvement from Vazquez, and some over the last 30 days from JBJr after a two month tour of the .150s . Brock Holt is posting some numbers most recently but skipped about 50 games getting his kid out of his eyes.

 

The bench has no legit PH'er on it , and no Of'er has a BA over .269, but Beni combines that with an OPS of .776. Andrew is a singles machine. Mookie at least cracks the .800's, and did get the fair pole potential game winner last night, all for naught.

 

The focus may remain on Cora's decisions and bolstering the pen, but Tim Hyers needs to look at his job too. He can't hit for them but between his work and Cora's experience, some one needs to get about 6 of the 12 hitters to wake up.

 

Pearce was on fire before he got hurt.

Moreland was heating back up, too.

JBJ's cold streak was 38 games at .421. His hot streak is nearing the same length at 28 games (1.015).

Vaz & Leon combined are hitting way better than last year.

Beni is not far from last year.

Bogey has improved on a great 2018 season.

Our 2B mix has hit way better since Chavis was called up and Holt returned from the IL. Even Nunez is hitting better than his putrid start. Marco has helped.

Devers has taken a huge step up.

 

Only Betts and JD have declined (and JBJ's overall numbers vs 2018).

 

It's the timeliness of our hitting that has gone south. That's not something easily corrected by trades, demotions or whatever. It's not a teachable skill. It's not something you can just call a player into your office and tell him he needs to hit better when we need it. (That might actually make it worse by adding pressure.)

 

I do not think we are losing because of Cora's decisions. It's not like he has Kimbrel in the pen and is choosing not to use him. He's had 2-4 scrubs on the 13 man pitching staff all year long. I'm not going to cry about injuries, because we've had way less than the Yanks, but the Eovaldi, Johnson and Hembree injuries have hurt an already shallow depth staff.

 

Our starters blew a lot of games early- now the pen is not coming through in key situations while looking very good for long stretches between those blown saves. The pen is doing better than expected, but what does that tell you about how well it was constructed?

 

If we cut the season in half (May 7th), here's how our team has done by position:

 

Last 38 games/First 37 games

 

OPS

.736 C .743

.716 1B .767

.706 2B .654

1.021 SS .810

.917 3B .781

.682 LF .818

.893 CF .419

.809 RF .881

.773 DH .699

 

SP

1st 37 games

7-15 5.08

1.39 WHIP/ 4.36 xFIP

 

RP

1st 37 games

11-4 4.12

1.25 WHIP/4.25 xFIP

 

SP last 38 games

14-11 3.92

1.13 WHIP/ 3.98 xFIP

 

RP last 38 games

8-5 3.71

1.35 WHIP/4.08 xFIP

 

 

.