A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

We've played 68 games. Here are how many games players have not started due to injury and "resting."

 

(BTW, I'm fine with the resting philosophy, but not when we need wins.)

 

The catch is, in our position we may well need a win every game from now on. So your philosophy would mean no rest days at all.

[mvp 78]

The catch is, in our position we may well need a win every game from now on. So your philosophy would mean no rest days at all.

 

If they did that and fought and clawed back to first place by the end of September, how healthy would they be for the playoffs?

[notin]

The catch is, in our position we may well need a win every game from now on. So your philosophy would mean no rest days at all.

 

 

The Sox have reached a point where they have to play .638 baseball the rest of the way to reach 90 wins...

[mvp 78]

The Sox have reached a point where they have to play .638 baseball the rest of the way to reach 90 wins...

 

They've played .575 since April 29th and have looked horrible. I can see them turning it around and playing at that pace.

[moonslav59]

The catch is, in our position we may well need a win every game from now on. So your philosophy would mean no rest days at all.

 

I'm ok with a day off once in a great while, but not when we had 3 guys out hurt and we'replaying the Rays and Rangers- two of the teams we have to leap frog.

 

We may end up not being able to give anyone as day off the rest of the year. Would that be a terrible thing?

 

We have these scheduled days off the rest of the way (look at all the rest coming up soon and in August):

 

Jun 20

Jun 27 & 28 (rare 2 days off)

Jul 1 (4 days off in 12 days!)

Jul 8-11 (4 day AS break and 8 days off in 22)

 

We do play 17 games in a row after that "vacation", including the last 10 vs NYY & TB, so I don't see any "rest" give that stretch, unless a poor match-up dictates one.

 

Day off JUL 29

 

17 games in 16 days including a dblhr with the Yanks (maybe a little rest needed here, but we do have 2 out of the next 5 days off and 3 of 8 off)

 

AUG 15 off

 

3 games

 

AUG 19 off

 

2 games

 

AUG 22 Off

 

2 games

 

AUG 26 off

 

2 games

 

AUG 29 off

 

3 games

 

SEP 2 off (6 out of 18 days off!)

 

10 games

 

SEP 13 off

 

2 games

 

SEP 16 off (2 out of 4 days off)

 

13 straight games to end the season

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited June 12, 2019 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

Moon, the only guy out hurt was Moreland. Stop this madness about 3 players being out. If you can't rest guys if one guy goes on the IL, nobody would ever get a rest unless they went on the IL.

[Maxbialystock]

Agreed, but maybe the defense would have saved quite a few runs, and possibly JBJ might have actually gotten a hit with men on base.

 

I know, I know. You, especially, but also others have tried to make that point. But the operative word is "maybe." Maybe this was one of those games, which are pretty infrequent, when good fielding would have made the difference. But I think the Sox pitchers giving up 8 walks had nothing to do with the defense. Hernandez, who looked great in first inning, gave up 5 of them along with 3 hits and 4 runs (3 earned). And Poyner has an ERA of 15.75, I find it hard to believe he was screwed by the defense.

[moonslav59]

They've played .575 since April 29th and have looked horrible. I can see them turning it around and playing at that pace.

 

We are 34-34 after 68 games and have 94 to go.

 

If they play .575 the rest of the way, it's .575 x 94= 54 wins and 40 losses.

 

That makes us 88-74.

 

Right now, the Rangers are on pace to win 88 games. The Guardians are on pace to win 83 games.

 

Is it a big stretch to see us win one more game than the above numbers show or the Rangers to lose 1 more than their current pace dictates?

[Maxbialystock]

Moon, the only guy out hurt was Moreland. Stop this madness about 3 players being out. If you can't rest guys if one guy goes on the IL, nobody would ever get a rest unless they went on the IL.

 

A might not use the word madness, but fundamentally I agree with you.

[notin]

I know, I know. You, especially, but also others have tried to make that point. But the operative word is "maybe." Maybe this was one of those games, which are pretty infrequent, when good fielding would have made the difference. But I think the Sox pitchers giving up 8 walks had nothing to do with the defense. Hernandez, who looked great in first inning, gave up 5 of them along with 3 hits and 4 runs (3 earned). And Poyner has an ERA of 15.75, I find it hard to believe he was screwed by the defense.

 

 

When you give 8 free passes to 1b and 5 of them score, and you lose by 4, how do you blame the defense?

 

“Hey defense!! Stop letting all the free passes score!!”

[moonslav59]

Moon, the only guy out hurt was Moreland. Stop this madness about 3 players being out. If you can't rest guys if one guy goes on the IL, nobody would ever get a rest unless they went on the IL.

 

Again, I am not talking about just the last game. The madness is not getting my point about a longer stretch than just last night. We sat Bogey, Beni & Devers vs TBR just a few days ago. Was that my imagination?

 

Moreland and Pearce were out last night (and Pearce was actually getting hot before going on the IL).

 

JD was out before that, and we were resting 1-3 starters vs the Rays.

Edited June 12, 2019 by moonslav59

[Maxbialystock]

We are 34-34 after 68 games and have 94 to go.

 

If they play .575 the rest of the way, it's .575 x 94= 54 wins and 40 losses.

 

That makes us 88-74.

 

Right now, the Rangers are on pace to win 88 games. The Guardians are on pace to win 83 games.

 

Is it a big stretch to see us win one more game than the above numbers show or the Rangers to lose 1 more than their current pace dictates?

 

those numbers again. Always with the numbers. But I agree with your point and in fact am encouraged by it. You and Mary Martin--cockeyed optimists--but she didn't know diddly about numbers.

[moonslav59]

those numbers again. Always with the numbers. But I agree with your point and in fact am encouraged by it. You and Mary Martin--cockeyed optimists--but she didn't know diddly about numbers.

 

I'm quickly losing my optimism. We probably can't wait for the deadline to make a deal.

 

We need pen help NOW! We could use a 5th starter, too, but Eovaldi may make that deal unlikely.

 

I just used the .575 number MVP brought up. I am NOT assuming we can or will win that much going forward as the team is currently constructed.

[Slasher9]

When you give 8 free passes to 1b and 5 of them score, and you lose by 4, how do you blame the defense?

 

“Hey defense!! Stop letting all the free passes score!!”

 

yes.

or perhaps pitchers were nibbling because they had sam travis. brock holt, and an out-of-position Betts holding down the OF? but you dont believe in the mental aspect of baseball so this is reasoning you cannot give credence to....

the problem is...we will NEVER KNOW...unless WTF Cora allows a set lineup for a 10 game stretch to see how it plays out.

me? i think mookie catches that ball in RF everytime.

me? i think JBj gets to that flyball in the early innings.

me? i think JBj throws out Andurs at 2b.

thats like 17 runs save in a game that we only gave up 9. we should have won -6 to 5. plus JBj probably hits a dinger so now it's -6 to 6.

[Bellhorn04]

Again, I am not talking about just the last game. The madness is not getting my point about a longer stretch than just last night. We sat Bogey, Beni & Devers vs TBR just a few days ago. Was that my imagination?

 

Yes it was. Bogey did not sit against TBR.

[Slasher9]

[illinoisredsox]

I'm ok with a day off once in a great while, but not when we had 3 guys out hurt and we'replaying the Rays and Rangers- two of the teams we have to leap frog.

 

We may end up not being able to give anyone as day off the rest of the year. Would that be a terrible thing?

 

We have these scheduled days off the rest of the way (look at all the rest coming up soon and in August):

 

Jun 20

Jun 27 & 28 (rare 2 days off)

Jul 1 (4 days off in 12 days!)

Jul 8-11 (4 day AS break and 8 days off in 22)

 

We do play 17 games in a row after that "vacation", including the last 10 vs NYY & TB, so I don't see any "rest" give that stretch, unless a poor match-up dictates one.

 

Day off JUL 29

 

17 games in 16 days including a dblhr with the Yanks (maybe a little rest needed here, but we do have 2 out of the next 5 days off and 3 of 8 off)

 

AUG 15 off

 

3 games

 

AUG 19 off

 

2 games

 

AUG 22 Off

 

2 games

 

AUG 26 off

 

2 games

 

AUG 29 off

 

3 games

 

SEP 2 off (6 out of 18 days off!)

 

10 games

 

SEP 13 off

 

2 games

 

SEP 16 off (2 out of 4 days off)

 

13 straight games to end the season

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Moon, that end of June "vacation" includes flying back and forth across the pond for those 2 games in London. Not your traditional days off.

[oldtimer]

I'm quickly losing my optimism. We probably can't wait for the deadline to make a deal.

 

We need pen help NOW! We could use a 5th starter, too, but Eovaldi may make that deal unlikely.

 

I just used the .575 number MVP brought up. I am NOT assuming we can or will win that much going forward as the team is currently constructed.

 

I think it is realistic to assume the probability of the Sox reaching the playoffs is now around 50%. Nice to talk about an acquisition in the pen, but I doubt we can trade for or afford a game changer. Then there is the risk of trading away assets and not making the playoffs. My view is we have to make the playoffs with our current personnel plus perhaps one decent BP arm. That is plan A.

 

Plan B should be a restructure plan for how we go forward if we fall too far back to be in it this year. I posed that question before. When might we know? The AS break? Plan B means deciding on a core to hold onto and then parting company with those that are unlikely to help us going forward. I have my list and of course that list is debateable.

 

I watched the Oakland/Rays game this afternoon. Both teams had a level of play and pitching that the Sox haven't often produced this year. Whatever happened to our team and its management, our team has definitely slipped badly. Can they turn it around? I don't know but see little evidence that points in that direction.

[moonslav59]

Moon, that end of June "vacation" includes flying back and forth across the pond for those 2 games in London. Not your traditional days off.

 

True, but it's not much longer than a flight to the left coast and our players do get more rest than playing.

[moonslav59]

I think it is realistic to assume the probability of the Sox reaching the playoffs is now around 50%. Nice to talk about an acquisition in the pen, but I doubt we can trade for or afford a game changer. Then there is the risk of trading away assets and not making the playoffs. My view is we have to make the playoffs with our current personnel plus perhaps one decent BP arm. That is plan A.

 

Plan B should be a restructure plan for how we go forward if we fall too far back to be in it this year. I posed that question before. When might we know? The AS break? Plan B means deciding on a core to hold onto and then parting company with those that are unlikely to help us going forward. I have my list and of course that list is debateable.

 

I watched the Oakland/Rays game this afternoon. Both teams had a level of play and pitching that the Sox haven't often produced this year. Whatever happened to our team and its management, our team has definitely slipped badly. Can they turn it around? I don't know but see little evidence that points in that direction.

 

Good points.

 

I still think the Sox are very close to last year's team on paper, but we just can't string together our efforts. Our pen is worse, and with Eovaldi on the shelf, so is our rotation from 2018.

 

I don't think good pen arms are as expensive as we might think, but I'm sure DD is looking and probably waiting for the prices to fall as we near the deadline and teams realize they are sellers.

 

The problem is, by waiting until the end of July, we may be sellers, too.

[oldtimer]

Good points.

 

I still think the Sox are very close to last year's team on paper, but we just can't string together our efforts. Our pen is worse, and with Eovaldi on the shelf, so is our rotation from 2018.

 

I don't think good pen arms are as expensive as we might think, but I'm sure DD is looking and probably waiting for the prices to fall as we near the deadline and teams realize they are sellers.

 

The problem is, by waiting until the end of July, we may be sellers, too.

 

We stuggled tonight but at least we won. Our lefties hit tonight and especially Beni. Desperately need to take the final game of the series.

[moonslav59]

We stuggled tonight but at least we won. Our lefties hit tonight and especially Beni. Desperately need to take the final game of the series.

 

Yes indeed! I fully agree!

[Elktonnick]

I think that Boston will probably make the playoffs. What to me is more worrisome than individual player slumps is the overall sloppiness, distracted play and mental errors. I still think that all goes back to their poor spring training. The team has been in a general funk since before opening day. I don't management ( I include Dombrowski) has developed an effective strategy yet to get this team back on track mentally. For me the series against the lowly Orioles will be an interesting opportunity to get everyone refocused mentally.

[mvp 78]

I think that Boston will probably make the playoffs. What to me is more worrisome than individual player slumps is the overall sloppiness, distracted play and mental errors. I still think that all goes back to their poor spring training. The team has been in a general funk since before opening day. I don't management ( I include Dombrowski) has developed an effective strategy yet to get this team back on track mentally. For me the series against the lowly Orioles will be an interesting opportunity to get everyone refocused mentally.

 

They should hire the shrink from Some Kind of Monster and make it into a reality show for NESN.

[oldtimer]

I think that Boston will probably make the playoffs. What to me is more worrisome than individual player slumps is the overall sloppiness, distracted play and mental errors. I still think that all goes back to their poor spring training. The team has been in a general funk since before opening day. I don't management ( I include Dombrowski) has developed an effective strategy yet to get this team back on track mentally. For me the series against the lowly Orioles will be an interesting opportunity to get everyone refocused mentally.

 

Maybe its up to the individual players to gain that determination. It is a grind to play every day so it takes determination to be your best out there. Maybe Beni was frustrated and embarrassed by his performance the prior night and that gave him extra incentive. Betts just doesn't look like the same player this year. He needs to do better if the team is to regain that elan they showed last year.

[notin]

Maybe part of the problem is the Red Sox players and management also think they’re going to make the playoffs no matter what and think they can coast for a bit and suddenly turn it on.

 

They might be right, but it certainly is putting a lot of questions in our heads...

[kenmeister]

In order for the Sox to make the wildcard game, they have to play better than Tampa Bay and Texas, and stave off Oakland and Cleveland who they are in a 3 way tie with. Maybe they can surge past Oakland, Cleveland, and Texas, but honestly it's quite a stretch. I'm surprised so many posters think that, in the end, this team will make the playoffs. What is your cause for optimism? Even if they make the one game playoff with Tampa Bay, they'd have to win to move on to the division series.

[Elktonnick]

Maybe its up to the individual players to gain that determination. It is a grind to play every day so it takes determination to be your best out there. Maybe Beni was frustrated and embarrassed by his performance the prior night and that gave him extra incentive. Betts just doesn't look like the same player this year. He needs to do better if the team is to regain that elan they showed last year.

 

Of course it is up to the individual but it is also a managerial function. The problem it isn't just one or two players who are in a funk but the entire ball club. When a player like Brock Holt makes two distracted plays in two consecutive games then I think it is an organizational issue which requires some kind of organizational response.

[Elktonnick]

Maybe part of the problem is the Red Sox players and management also think they’re going to make the playoffs no matter what and think they can coast for a bit and suddenly turn it on.

 

They might be right, but it certainly is putting a lot of questions in our heads...

 

I do think you are correct and it has been the club's problem since Spring Training.

[mvp 78]

I'm sure the following anecdote will bother nobody on here.

 

@ByChrisMason

 

Mired in a slump so severe that he was dropped from the leadoff spot to the No. 9 hole, Michael Chavis heard something he wasn't expecting.

 

"Congratulations. You're in your first major league slump. I hope you have 20 more in your career."