A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[Slasher9]

 

CY votes this year.

 

book it. so it is written.....

[vegasbob]

You seem like a guy whose #1 sport is football and who tries to apply a lot of football knowhow to baseball.

 

But we will see if the Sox ST record indicates that they're not ready for the regular season.

 

Not really, but I do believe what Parcells did say several years ago. I think the Sox will win 100+ games again over a full season, JDM will go .325/40/120, and that the record after the first 11 road games will 5-6 or 6-5, as opposed to last year's incredible 17-2 run. Slower start, excellent finish in September.

[Kimmi]

I thought you said that Spring Training record doesn't matter. My take is what our regular players do in spring training does matter. I find it difficult to imagine they will go from 0 for 3 to solid hitters overnight. I guess that remains to be seen.

 

Spring training records don't matter. I was just making a comment.

[oldtimer]

Spring Training is winding down and soon the meaningful games will begin. Every team is hopeful at this point and some have justification to be hopeful, as do the Sox. Being an older fan, I tend to look to eyeball tests and accumulated wisdom tomake judgments, but also realize the statistical approach has its place. DD and the front office must have to use the statistical approach primarily to structure the team but how do they really look at making those judgments?

 

1. They have an amount of money to spend based on the competitive balance tax. That amount is known and they may exceed it but need to reset to it to avoid serious penalties. Hopefully they never exceed the second tier unless perhaps they foresee a championship.

 

2. They have to apportion the spending to cover 13 field players and 12 pitchers, with room to allow for adjustments based on the inevitable injuries and major underperformance. They also have to account for dead money contracts (ala Pablo and Justin last year). In addition there are non salary related costs to consider.

 

3. How do they look at apportionment? Probably based on WAR as the major guideline. I have always been a little confused by that term. If I had all 0 WAR guys on the team, does it mean I can win 81 games per year? If so, I would look to have some guys who would contribute to the 25 WAR number needed to be a champion. If I was DD, in simplistic terms I could pay a percentage of the money left in the competitive balance tax maximum over what a group of 0 WAR guys would earn, based on the contribution to the necessary additional WAR. It doesn't appear to make sense that you can pay that way as the big stars gets so large a slice of the pie that there isn't enough for the remaqining guys. In reality, young stars coming up get significcantly less than their value so a consttant stream of them is needed to keep a team competitive while staying under the competitive balance cap.

 

4. Team balance is also needed and DD has got to keep a functional team throughout the season. Utility players and call ups need to be budgeted for.

 

5. Risk assessment has got to be a key area Risk includes health, injuries and declining performance. The front office probably has a model for declining performance and can see from injury histories the liklihood of lost time duriing the year. Risk has to go up for a player if long term contracts are given as the models are probably less reliable over longer terms. The larger the contract given and the span of time envisioned increases the risk involved to the team achieving its goal of winning a championship.

 

6. There is also a Chaos factor involved in any decision. One that is unpredicatable. That can come in and throw all the good planning into a mess.

 

So given this line of thinking, first is it sound? If sound, then what would I advise?

 

1. Get rid of all underperformers based on WAR rating

2. Avoid long term contracts with the term of contract based on the age of the player. Maybe 10 years for a star 25 or 26 years old. years for a guy just past 30 and 2 or 3 years max for those 33 years old. If the contract demand exceed value to thee team, trade the player.

3. Put money and effort into the farm team and develop ew young players who can make contributions beyond their cost.

4. Reset the competitive balance tax limit (at least as long as there is one) to enhance the ability to strengthen the farm team.

 

How this thinking applies to our existing players is the big question. Is Mookie worth $35 million AAV for 10 years? Similar questions for JDM, Bogaerts and so on. Tough position to be in as a top exceutive. Money Ball suggests a way of thinking that has a hard edge but one that makes some sense.

[notin]

I thought you said that Spring Training record doesn't matter. My take is what our regular players do in spring training does matter. I find it difficult to imagine they will go from 0 for 3 to solid hitters overnight. I guess that remains to be seen.

 

 

Spring training records don’t matter. And if you get worried looking at the Sox record this spring, bear in mind that Gorky Hernandez and Sam Travis have more plate appearances than Mookie Betts and JD Martinez.

 

If we ever replicate THAT situation in the regular season, yes, this team will perform like it does in spring training...

[Bellhorn04]

3. How do they look at apportionment? Probably based on WAR as the major guideline. I have always been a little confused by that term. If I had all 0 WAR guys on the team, does it mean I can win 81 games per year?

 

If you have all 0 WAR players I think you will win 60-65 games. Kimmi has the exact number.

 

The 'R' stands for replacement level player, which basically means a guy who is just barely good enough to play in the majors. On a good team he's the type of player you call up when the regular gets injured.

[Bellhorn04]

So given this line of thinking, first is it sound? If sound, then what would I advise?

 

1. Get rid of all underperformers based on WAR rating

2. Avoid long term contracts with the term of contract based on the age of the player. Maybe 10 years for a star 25 or 26 years old. years for a guy just past 30 and 2 or 3 years max for those 33 years old. If the contract demand exceed value to thee team, trade the player.

3. Put money and effort into the farm team and develop ew young players who can make contributions beyond their cost.

4. Reset the competitive balance tax limit (at least as long as there is one) to enhance the ability to strengthen the farm team.

 

How this thinking applies to our existing players is the big question. Is Mookie worth $35 million AAV for 10 years? Similar questions for JDM, Bogaerts and so on. Tough position to be in as a top exceutive. Money Ball suggests a way of thinking that has a hard edge but one that makes some sense.

 

The way I see it right now is that over the last 15 years the Red Sox are the most successful team in MLB with 4 titles.

 

So we ARE the model team over that time frame.

 

And as everyone can see, even the model team makes its share of mistakes.

 

Because in MLB the performance of players is always difficult to predict because it's such a thin line between success and failure at the level they're competing at.

[notin]

The way I see it right now is that over the last 15 years the Red Sox are the most successful team in MLB with 4 titles.

 

So we ARE the model team over that time frame.

 

And as everyone can see, even the model team makes its share of mistakes.

 

Because in MLB the performance of players is always difficult to predict because it's such a thin line between success and failure at the level they're competing at.

 

 

And like any sport, MLB has trends.

 

Right now we’re actually in a weird situation in MLB where free agency is the cheap way to get players and developing your own is risky. Younger star players are setting arbitration records at prices that used to be reserved for elite free agent. And big contract extensions are going to players with little to no MLB experience. Eloy Jimenez signed one yesterday. Brandon Lowe the day before. They should be great if they work, but Scott Kingery didn’t exactly get a great start in the first year of his deal. If Jimenez works out, it’s great for the White Sox. If not, would they have been better off spending a little bit more and signing AJ Pollock? And what’s the break even point? The most likely outcome for Jimenez is he starts slowly for the first year or two (or three?). How many good seasons from Jimenez justify his deal over an established veteran?

[Nick]

Planning for the cliff

Projected 2019 roster, Under team control

 

5 yrs Devers, Johnson, Velazquez, Brasier

4 yrs Vazquez, Beni, Eovaldi, Price,

3 yrs Dustin, E Rod, Barnes, Hembree, Workman

2 yrs Betts, JBJ, Sandy

1 yr Moreland, Xander, JD, Porcello, Sale, Pearce, Nunez, Holt, Thornburg

 

I guess the good news is that we don't have any 10 year deals on the books. No bad deals right now as long as Price remains healthy. Final year of Sandoval.

Edited March 21, 2019 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Here's my 2019 Sox projections by position:

 

Position (2018 BA HR RBI OPS & PAs by major players)

2019 Projection

 

C (.194 10 43 .533: 286 Vaz .547/261 Leon .503/65 Swi .633)

.220 12 55 .625: 400 Vaz/200 Leon/ 25 other

Defense leads the way from this position, and they improve their OPS by almost 100 points.

 

1B: (.267 23 109 .794: 393 Moreland .762/109 HRam .715/ 103 Pearce 1.007/43 others)

.275 30 125 (400 Moreland/ 200 Pearce/ 50 others)

Pearce will play vs RHPs more than some expect. We should see significant improvement at 1B.

 

2B: (.252 8 61 .658: 287 Nunez .666/ 206 Holt .715/ 141 Kinsler .598/39 others

.275 10 75 .700 (250 Pedey/200 Holt/200 Nunez)

Pedey is the wildcard. Holt may regress, but Nunez should improve over 2018.

 

3B: (.247 26 85 .711: 441 Devers .730/ 168 Nunez .684/ 33 others)

.265 35 110 .790 (580 Devers/100 Nunez)

This should be our most improved position on offense. D is iffy.

 

SS: (.288 26 118 .867: 578 Bogey .883/ 74 Holt .872/51 Lin .669)

.285 25 110 .850 (650 Bogey/50 Holt-Lin)

Slight decline on offense but a hopeful improvement on D.

 

LF:.300 21 102 .851 (557 Beni .779/ 140 JDM 1.151/44 others)

.310 20 100 .875 (620 Beni/150 JD)

Beni leading off may see a higher OBP and lower RBIs.

 

CF: .269 20 78 .825 (494 JBJ .734/99 Beni 1.135/60 Betts .923/9 Lin)

.275 28 100 .825 (600 JBJ/50 Beni/50 Betts)

JBJ plays more and does better. Beni's numbers in CF do not repeat in '19.

 

RF: .329 38 107 1.013 (532 Betts 1.097/109 JD 1.102/111 others)

.320 40 120 .990 (650 Betts/ 100 JD)

 

DH: .269 34 107 .862 (400 JD .970/ 86 HRam .700/ 47 Pearce .827/41 Nunez .774/ 93 others)

.280 40 120 .950 (420 JD/200 Pearce/40 others)

 

Overall (not scientifically taken from positional positions added together):

 

2018: .268 208 829 .792 (876 runs scored)

 

2019: .270 200 840 .798 (890 runs scored)

 

Starting Pitching (listed by IP in 2018)

IP Pitcher W-L ERA> 2019 projections

191 Porcello 17-7 4.28> 190 Porcello 18-8 4.00

176 D Price 16-7 3.58> 190 D Price 20-7 3.20

158 C Sale 12-4 2.11> 180 C Sale 21-6 2.20

130 E Rod 13-5 3.82> 170 E Rod 15-8 3.45

*74 Pom 2-6 6.08

*54 Wright 3-1 2.68

54 Eovaldi 3-3 3.33 > 170 Eovaldi 15-8 3.45

SP/RP

99 Johnson 4-5 4.17> 100 5-5 4.00

85 Velazquez 7-2 3.18> 100 6-4 3.80

 

Combined SP:

 

2018: 68-38 3.77

2019: 92-40 3.50

 

RPers:

 

2018: 40-16 3.72

2019: 12-18 4.30

 

Individual RP'ers (Total IP from 2018 SP+RP)

 

*66 Kelly 4.39

*62 Kimbrel 2.74

*17 Cuevas 7.41

*20 Scott, Haley & Beeks ~9.50

 

62 Barnes 3.65> 65 Barnes 3.60

60 Hembree 4.20> 65 Hembree 4.00

41 Workman 3.27> 60 Workman 4.20

34 R Brasier 1.60> 65 R Brasier 3.00

24 Thornburg 5.63> 55 Thornburg 4.00

 

 

We basically replace the 165 IP from departing pen arms with

+30 Brasier

+30 Thornburg (Mejia?)

+20 Workman

+10 Barnes & Hembree

75+ Poyner/Walden/Mejia/ ???/ trade?

 

104-58

 

Edited March 21, 2019 by moonslav59

[jacksonianmarch]

Your rotation alone is going to win 92 games. Hahaha

[moonslav59]

Your rotation alone is going to win 92 games. Hahaha

 

I'm assuming great health.

 

Some no decisions will be wins, so maybe this...

 

SP'ers: 85-40

RP'ers: 19-18 (maybe a bit hopeful)

 

[dgalehouse]

The Sox had the highest payroll and the best team . There is a correlation whether you admit it or not . Quality costs money . Mediocrity is cheaper . Moneyball is for the small time Charlies . Moneyball does not win championships . Of course there are exceptions, but for the most part you get what you pay for . The luxury tax is just a dumb method to deal with the lack of a salary cap . If MLB really wants competitive balance , they need a salary cap , salary floor and an increased minimum wage . Not going to happen . One more thing ; while the geeks may love it , the average fan is turned off by all the analytics and all the financial talk . Not one bit good for the game .

[moonslav59]

If the smaller market teams actually used the money gained through the luxury tax and other competitive balance monies, maybe it might work better than a cap.

 

If the player's union would demand a much high min salary and a min team salary budget, then things might change, but you are probably right. It won't happen.

[Bellhorn04]

One more thing ; while the geeks may love it , the average fan is turned off by all the analytics and all the financial talk . Not one bit good for the game .

 

Major sweeping generalization, Denny. Who is the average fan, and why can't they just ignore all the analytics and all the financial talk?

[oldtimer]

Spring training records don’t matter. And if you get worried looking at the Sox record this spring, bear in mind that Gorky Hernandez and Sam Travis have more plate appearances than Mookie Betts and JD Martinez.

 

If we ever replicate THAT situation in the regular season, yes, this team will perform like it does in spring training...

 

You misread what I said, which is that what our regular players don't perform well in spring training, how can we expect them to flip a switch when the season begins. I am not bothered at all by win/loss records.

[notin]

You misread what I said, which is that what our regular players don't perform well in spring training, how can we expect them to flip a switch when the season begins. I am not bothered at all by win/loss records.

 

That’s a big part of it.

 

They’ll “flip the switch” by playing regularly in place of Gorkys and Travis. But is there any real advantage to having Betts get more st bats off pitchers wearing numbers in the 80s and 90s?

[Bellhorn04]

You misread what I said, which is that what our regular players don't perform well in spring training, how can we expect them to flip a switch when the season begins. I am not bothered at all by win/loss records.

 

How much playing time does Tom Brady get in Patriots pre-season games?

[dgalehouse]

Major sweeping generalization, Denny. Who is the average fan, and why can't they just ignore all the analytics and all the financial talk?

 

It's just my take on the situation......... Overheard conversation between Joe Sixpack and Ferdy Craftbeer : Joe : Do you think Sale will win 20 this year ? Ferdy : Wins and losses are meaningless for a pitcher . Let's look at his fip . Joe : Huh ? By the way , did you see that catch JBJ made last night ? Ferdy : Nice catch , but some others have a better UZR rating . Joe : ???? Hey , I bet Mookie hits .350 this year . Ferdy : Maybe , but batting average really doesn't matter . It might depend on his BABIP . Joe : Oh . Okay . Whatever . How about J.D. ? Great signing , right ? I bet he leads the league in homers . Ferdy: Could happen. But I don't think we will be able to keep him if we reset . Joe : Reset ? Ferdy : Yup . That's the name of the game these days . Joe : See you later Ferdy . When does football start ?

Edited March 21, 2019 by dgalehouse

[mvp 78]

It's just my take on the situation......... Overheard conversation between Joe Sixpack and Ferdy Craftbeer : Joe : Do you think Sale will win 20 this year ? Ferdy : Wins and losses are meaningless for a pitcher . Let's look at his fip . Joe : Huh ? By the way , did you see that catch JBJ made last night ? Ferdy : Nice catch , but some others have a better UZR rating . Joe : ???? Hey , I bet Mookie hits .350 this year . Ferdy : Maybe , but batting average really doesn't matter . It might depend on his BABIP . Joe : Oh . Okay . Whatever . How about J.D. ? Great signing , right ? I bet he leads the league in homers . Ferdy: Could happen. But I don't think we will be able to keep him if we reset . Joe : Reset ? Ferdy : Yup . That's the name of the game these days . Joe : See you later Ferdy . When does football start ?

 

Ferdy seems like a dingaling. Damn that craft beer and people who like things!

[notin]

The Sox had the highest payroll and the best team . There is a correlation whether you admit it or not . Quality costs money . Mediocrity is cheaper . Moneyball is for the small time Charlies . Moneyball does not win championships . Of course there are exceptions, but for the most part you get what you pay for . The luxury tax is just a dumb method to deal with the lack of a salary cap . If MLB really wants competitive balance , they need a salary cap , salary floor and an increased minimum wage . Not going to happen . One more thing ; while the geeks may love it , the average fan is turned off by all the analytics and all the financial talk . Not one bit good for the game .

 

 

The average fan is turned off by analytics until a GM like Epstein comes in and uses them to win a couple rings...

[notin]

Ferdy seems like a dingaling. Damn that craft beer and people who like things!

 

 

But Joe’s name indicates he drinks more. So it’s a tough call...

[Bellhorn04]

The average fan is turned off by analytics until a GM like Epstein comes in and uses them to win a couple rings...

 

Good call.

[S5Dewey]

The average fan is turned off by analytics until a GM like Epstein comes in and uses them to win a couple rings...

 

I don't agree. IMO Mr. A. Fan doesn't understand the metrics and doesn't care to. All he cares about is that his team won a couple of rings.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't agree. IMO Mr. A. Fan doesn't understand the metrics and doesn't care to. All he cares about is that his team won a couple of rings.

 

But I don't think Mr. Average Fan is completely oblivious of the fact that Theo Epstein is a fan of analytics or that analytics may have played a part in the titles.

[notin]

I don't agree. IMO Mr. A. Fan doesn't understand the metrics and doesn't care to. All he cares about is that his team won a couple of rings.

 

Plenty of fans like the analytical side of the game me as well. It’s not bad for baseball just because some fans don’t. If anything, it’s good for baseball because it fosters deeper understanding. Those who want it will pursue it, and those who don’t won’t. It’s not a matter of right or wrong or good or bad...

[Bellhorn04]

My take is that a lot of the analytics are useful, but I do think there's a bit of an overkill factor now...

[harmony]

Baseball is a tiny sliver of the world economy that has been increasingly dependent on analytics over the past half century.

 

If anything baseball may be behind the curve.

[cp176]

My take is that a lot of the analytics are useful, but I do think there's a bit of an overkill factor now...

 

How many "average" fans do reach a point where they are in fact turned off by an over emphasis on the analytics and subsequently are turning off the game?

[dgalehouse]

The average fan is turned off by analytics until a GM like Epstein comes in and uses them to win a couple rings...

 

Theo's analytical acumen was helped in no small measure by Dave Roberts huge , albeit overrated, stolen base and Bill Mueller's and David Ortiz ' great , although imaginary , clutch hits . The legend of Epstein might have been slow to develop if we had been swept by the Yankees in 2004 . Not taking anything away from Theo , but Joe Sixpack remembers the stolen base and the clutch hits far more than the advanced metrics .