A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[harmony]

Theo's analytical acumen was helped in no small measure by Dave Roberts huge , albeit overrated, stolen base and Bill Mueller's and David Ortiz ' great , although imaginary , clutch hits . The legend of Epstein might have been slow to develop if we had been swept by the Yankees in 2004 . Not taking anything away from Theo , but Joe Sixpack remembers the stolen base and the clutch hits far more than the advanced metrics .

Just as a person remembers hitting the jackpot on the slot machine.

 

That does not make playing the slot machines a good investment.

[notin]

How many "average" fans do reach a point where they are in fact turned off by an over emphasis on the analytics and subsequently are turning off the game?

 

 

Do you think this is a new development in baseball?

 

The game was played professionally for 30 years before anyone even thought of ERA and batting average. Before 1900, pitchers were evaluated solely by wins and losses. Of course they were also expected to throw complete games and ERA was created to measure a bold new strategy called “relief pitching.”

 

It wasn’t until the 1940’s that Branch Rickey devised “slugging percentage.” And probably to a slew of complaints of “what’s wrong with just batting average? It was good enough for Rogers Hornsby!!”

 

In the 1960’s, a whole new stat called the “save” was invented. And it was redefined multiple times.

 

In the 1980s, OPS came about. It took over a decade to catch on. But it did catch on faster than SLG, which became an official stat in 1984.

 

This is all nothing new. There were fans turned off by every stat I mentioned. Yet baseball survived.

 

The biggest mistake people can make is assuming the way they’ve always known something is the way it always was....

[moonslav59]

The biggest mistake people can make is assuming the way they’ve always known something is the way it always was....

 

What bugs me the most is how some seem to assume that stat geeks cannot enjoy the game in the same way non stat geeks do. Like we always have numbers swirling in our heads that take away from watching or appreciating all the aspects of the game.

[Bellhorn04]

Baseball is a tiny sliver of the world economy that has been increasingly dependent on analytics over the past half century.

 

If anything baseball may be behind the curve.

 

Trying your hand at puns now?

 

From what we're hearing about the stat geeks employed by teams now I can't see how they're much behind.

[Bellhorn04]

How many "average" fans do reach a point where they are in fact turned off by an over emphasis on the analytics and subsequently are turning off the game?

 

I can't really say. But when I'm watching a game I don't like to be constantly bombarded with data. I think there has to be kind of a balanced approach.

[notin]

The biggest mistake people can make is assuming the way they’ve always known something is the way it always was....

 

What bugs me the most is how some seem to assume that stat geeks cannot enjoy the game in the same way non stat geeks do. Like we always have numbers swirling in our heads that take away from watching or appreciating all the aspects of the game.

 

 

Like when they assume we don’t remember Roberts’ stolen base? Or Kevin Miller working the walk to set it up? Or Mueller driving him home? Probably because they think stat geeks are too busy calculating the effect on his fWAR and why it’s a better or worse measure than his bWAR...

[Kimmi]

If you have all 0 WAR players I think you will win 60-65 games. Kimmi has the exact number.

 

The 'R' stands for replacement level player, which basically means a guy who is just barely good enough to play in the majors. On a good team he's the type of player you call up when the regular gets injured.

 

A team of all replacement level players will have 47.7 wins, to be exact.

[Kimmi]

Major sweeping generalization, Denny. Who is the average fan, and why can't they just ignore all the analytics and all the financial talk?

 

In my experience with talking to 'average' fans, they don't know a lot about analytics.

 

They're not turned off by it because they're not all that aware of it.

[Kimmi]

It's just my take on the situation......... Overheard conversation between Joe Sixpack and Ferdy Craftbeer : Joe : Do you think Sale will win 20 this year ? Ferdy : Wins and losses are meaningless for a pitcher . Let's look at his fip . Joe : Huh ? By the way , did you see that catch JBJ made last night ? Ferdy : Nice catch , but some others have a better UZR rating . Joe : ???? Hey , I bet Mookie hits .350 this year . Ferdy : Maybe , but batting average really doesn't matter . It might depend on his BABIP . Joe : Oh . Okay . Whatever . How about J.D. ? Great signing , right ? I bet he leads the league in homers . Ferdy: Could happen. But I don't think we will be able to keep him if we reset . Joe : Reset ? Ferdy : Yup . That's the name of the game these days . Joe : See you later Ferdy . When does football start ?

 

Yeah, except this only happens on baseball forums, where you have die hard fans, not average fans.

[Kimmi]

Ferdy seems like a dingaling. Damn that craft beer and people who like things!

 

Ferdy is a genius.

[Kimmi]

Theo's analytical acumen was helped in no small measure by Dave Roberts huge , albeit overrated, stolen base and Bill Mueller's and David Ortiz ' great , although imaginary , clutch hits . The legend of Epstein might have been slow to develop if we had been swept by the Yankees in 2004 . Not taking anything away from Theo , but Joe Sixpack remembers the stolen base and the clutch hits far more than the advanced metrics .

 

Yes, he does. Which is what I'm saying. Analytics aren't ruining baseball because the average fan doesn't know enough about them to care.

[moonslav59]

Alex Wilson opts out and is a FA again.

[harmony]

I'm assuming great health.

 

Some no decisions will be wins, so maybe this...

 

SP'ers: 85-40

RP'ers: 19-18 (maybe a bit hopeful)

 

Steamer projects Chris Sale with 15 wins, David Price and Rick Porcello with 12 wins each, Nathan Eovaldi with 11 wins and Eduardo Rodriguez with 10 wins:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer&team=3&lg=all&players=0&sort=3,d

 

That add up to 60 wins.

 

Marcel projects Porcello with 13 wins, Price and Sale with 12 wins each, Rodriguez with 9 wins and Eovaldi with 7 wins:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2018-projections.shtml

 

That adds up to 53 wins.

 

ZiPS projects Sale with 15 wins, Price and Porcello with 13 wins each, Rodriguez with 10 wins and Eovaldi with 8 wins:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=zips&team=3&lg=all&players=0&sort=3,d

 

That adds up to 59 wins.

 

But I understand that this thread is An Optimistic View at 2019: Part I.

Edited March 21, 2019 by harmony

[Nick]

A team of all replacement level players will have 47.7 wins, to be exact.

 

I thought replacement level meant average, thus it would lead to 81 wins.

[harmony]

I thought replacement level meant average, thus it would lead to 81 wins.

https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/war/

[Bellhorn04]

Alex Wilson opts out and is a FA again.

 

Man, if he doesn't acquire Wilson, notin will be all over him. *

 

*This post appears in 2 threads.

[notin]

I thought replacement level meant average, thus it would lead to 81 wins.

 

No. Replacement level. Basically an AAAA player.

 

Now there was a metric WAA for wins above average, which referred to league average players. And I am reminded a while back there was also WAFL, or Wins Above Felipe Lopez, which was created by some crackpot with too much time on his hands...

[notin]

Man, if he doesn't acquire Wilson, notin will be all over him. *

 

*This post appears in 2 threads.

 

I’ve been less disappointed in DD since I learned he has T Mobile. They’ll give you more drops than the Chicago Bears receiving corps...

[notin]

Though honestly, I’m surprised he didn’t go after Wilson the first time. DD has been loading up on ex-Tigers for a few years now...

[moonslav59]

Steamer projects Chris Sale with 15 wins, David Price and Rick Porcello with 12 wins each, Nathan Eovaldi with 11 wins and Eduardo Rodriguez with 10 wins:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer&team=3&lg=all&players=0&sort=3,d

 

That add up to 60 wins.

 

Marcel projects Porcello with 13 wins, Price and Sale with 12 wins each, Rodriguez with 9 wins and Eovaldi with 7 wins:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2018-projections.shtml

 

That adds up to 53 wins.

 

ZiPS projects Sale with 15 wins, Price and Porcello with 13 wins each, Rodriguez with 10 wins and Eovaldi with 8 wins:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=zips&team=3&lg=all&players=0&sort=3,d

 

That adds up to 59 wins.

 

But I understand that this thread is An Optimistic View at 2019: Part I.

 

They always project low. How many wins did they project to the wins leader? 16?

 

My win totals may be off, and I usually do team wins per start, and I think I went somewhere in between this time.

 

How's this, assuming no injuries...

 

Team Record in Starts by:

 

25-8 Sale

22-10 Price

21-12 Porcello

18-14 Eovaldi

18-14 ERod

[Slasher9]

Don’t walk it back moon. Harmony just being harmony.

Steamer probably had severino winning 22 this season....

[moonslav59]

Don’t walk it back moon. Harmony just being harmony.

Steamer probably had severino winning 22 this season....

 

I didn't walk it back.

 

I still have 104 wins.

[harmony]

They always project low. How many wins did they project to the wins leader? 16?

 

My win totals may be off, and I usually do team wins per start, and I think I went somewhere in between this time.

 

How's this, assuming no injuries...

 

Team Record in Starts by:

 

25-8 Sale

22-10 Price

21-12 Porcello

18-14 Eovaldi

18-14 ERod

[/b]

And this forum's most prolific poster always projects high on the Red Sox.

 

That's why this thread is An Optimistic View at 2019: Part I.

 

One source projects the 2019 Red Sox with 94 regular-season wins:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

 

Another source projects the Red Sox with 89 wins:

 

https://doublegsports.com/pecota-projected-mlb-standings-2019/

 

A third source projects the Red Sox with 92 wins:

 

https://www.rotochamp.com/baseball/ProjectedStandings.aspx

 

A fourth source projects the Red Sox with 100.9 wins:

 

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/projected-2019-mlb-standings-yankees-dodgers-looking-like-favorites-as-baseball-waits-on-harper-and-machado/

 

A fifth source projects the Red Sox with 101 wins:

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2819454-mlb-predictions-2019-projecting-the-final-standings#slide0

 

A sixth source projects the Red Sox with 93.7 wins:

 

https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/projections/standings/

 

The reputations of these sources vary but I suppose a Red Sox fan would be expected to be optimistic.

[moonslav59]

And this forum's most prolific poster always projects high on the Red Sox.

 

Wrong. I projected much lower wins last year and under-projected in some other years as well. (I admit I was way off in 2017.)

 

 

That's why this thread is An Optimistic View at 2019: Part I.

 

I am often critical and try to give the upside and downside. Yes, I spend more time on the upside. It's not "unrealistic".

 

 

One source projects the 2019 Red Sox with 94 regular-season wins:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthchart...tion=Standings

 

Another source projects the Red Sox with 89 wins:

 

https://doublegsports.com/pecota-pro...tandings-2019/

 

A third source projects the Red Sox with 92 wins:

 

https://www.rotochamp.com/baseball/P...Standings.aspx

 

A fourth source projects the Red Sox with 100.9 wins:

 

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/p...r-and-machado/

 

A fifth source projects the Red Sox with 101 wins:

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...andings#slide0

 

A sixth source projects the Red Sox with 93.7 wins:

 

https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/projections/standings/

 

All I can say is" Whoop-dee-freakin'-do!"

 

They may be right, and so might I.

 

 

The reputations of these sources vary but I suppose a Red Sox fan would be expected to be optimistic.

 

I am well aware several players may decline after an uptick last year, but in my opinion 2017 was the outlier and not 2018.

 

We hardly have any old guys, and the very few ones we have are not in key roles.

 

We have a very strong rotation.

 

We have a very strong line-up.

 

We have a very strong defense.

 

Just about everyone agrees on that.

 

Our weak area seems to be the pen, and on paper, I agree, it is very questionable, but we have some budget space available to make some mid season pick-ups. DD has done very well in that area the past 2 years. Maybe he swings and misses this year, but I'm sticking to my optimistic projection that we decline in wins by 4, which is more than the double the WAR of Kimbrel + Kelly's 2018 numbers (1.9).

 

I see no reason to think it is optimism to think Devers, Beni, JBJ and others entering prime or in prime to do as well or better than 2018, at least enough to offset the expected declines- expected or otherwise.

[BillyWilliams]

And this forum's most prolific poster always projects high on the Red Sox.

 

That's why this thread is An Optimistic View at 2019: Part I.

 

 

That's a bingo!!

[Maxbialystock]

They always project low. How many wins did they project to the wins leader? 16?

 

My win totals may be off, and I usually do team wins per start, and I think I went somewhere in between this time.

 

How's this, assuming no injuries...

 

Team Record in Starts by:

 

25-8 Sale

22-10 Price

21-12 Porcello

18-14 Eovaldi

18-14 ERod

 

That's a pretty good way to look at it, but I would consider adding a 6th starter called "Others" because I will be astounded if those guys don't start 10 to 20 games in 2019.

 

Last year Sale, Price, Porcello, and ERod started 117 games--almost 30 starts each.

 

Johnson started 13, Velazquez 8, Pom 11, Eovaldi 11, Wright 4, Cuevas 1, and Beeks 1--a total of 48.

[notin]

That's a pretty good way to look at it, but I would consider adding a 6th starter called "Others" because I will be astounded if those guys don't start 10 to 20 games in 2019.

 

Last year Sale, Price, Porcello, and ERod started 117 games--almost 30 starts each.

 

Johnson started 13, Velazquez 8, Pom 11, Eovaldi 11, Wright 4, Cuevas 1, and Beeks 1--a total of 48.

 

That’s 165 starts

[Slasher9]

i wonder if last years thread was too optimistic? oh wait...we had a parade. nevermind.

[BillyWilliams]

How a Goldy deal affects Rendon, Donaldson, J.D.

 

J.D. Martinez, for example, can opt out of the final three years and $62.5 million of his deal with Boston. Should he post another MVP-type season, Martinez could decide to capitalize on the less-than-stellar market and take another shot a free agency, especially with some of the other big bats now off the board.

 

Paul Goldschmidt deal shakes up 2019 free agency

WWW.MLB.COM

---

Another day, another extension. Two of them, actually. Blake Snell, the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner, agreed to a five-year, $50 million contract with the Rays on Thursday, a deal that will cover all three of his salary-arbitration years and one of his free-agent seasons. Later in the

[moonslav59]

That's a pretty good way to look at it, but I would consider adding a 6th starter called "Others" because I will be astounded if those guys don't start 10 to 20 games in 2019.

 

Last year Sale, Price, Porcello, and ERod started 117 games--almost 30 starts each.

 

Johnson started 13, Velazquez 8, Pom 11, Eovaldi 11, Wright 4, Cuevas 1, and Beeks 1--a total of 48.

 

Then, it might look like this:

 

23-7 Sale

20-9 Price

19-11 Porcello

18-11 Eovaldi

18-11 ERod

6-7 Others