A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[Slasher9]

Catchers can't hit. It's a scientific fact. All that crouching down kills them.

 

In 2018 the average MLB catcher hit 233/304/374 for an OPS of 678.

 

not only the crouching but their catching hand is numb by the 3rd AB.

[Slasher9]

Is this like him saying there were no surgeries scheduled?

 

hahahaha. +2 points.

[moonslav59]

You can make the argument that the catchers are not as familiar with the relievers as they are with the starters .Okay . But you could then say that Swihart is not that familiar with anyone on the staff unless he caught them a lot in the minors . So , it goes both ways .

 

I realize that and have said it.

 

Who wants to risk a learning curve when we may need every win to win the division?

 

What if Swihart never gets as good?

 

Swihart did have a chance years ago and did not show he got better when he caught some pitchers a lot.

[mvp 78]

not only the crouching but their catching hand is numb by the 3rd AB.

 

Robot catchers now!

[sk7326]

I'll just copy Kimmi's post from yesterday, including her editorial comments at the end:

 

Baseball Prospectus ranks catchers defensively by framing runs, fielding runs, blocking runs, caught stealing runs, stealing runs, and throwing runs. Out of 117 ranked catchers in 2018, Leon ranked 7th and Vazquez ranked 14th. Swihart ranked 38th, which is not bad out of 117.

 

As a team, Boston catchers ranked 3rd out of the 30 teams.

 

Those are based on the measurable stats. I think Leon and Vazquez would rank even better when you factor in the intangibles.

 

You are right. Our catcher position is not a weakness. Now I think it could be better is Vazquez could stay healthy - Leon's production offensively is very bad even by the rock bottom expectations of a catcher. Swihart still has time to be good, but I suspect it would be better for him to find another team where he can get reps regularly.

[notin]

You are right. Our catcher position is not a weakness.

 

But is catcher the Sox weakest position, which is not the same as a weakness?

[Kimmi]

But is catcher the Sox weakest position, which is not the same as a weakness?

 

Offensively, of course.

 

On the whole, I don't think so.

[moonslav59]

It's impossible to top. It was the dream season.

 

98 wins and a maxed out playoff run to another championship would be just as nice.

 

Doing it without Kimbrel might make it seem sweeter.

 

 

[notin]

Offensively, of course.

 

On the whole, I don't think so.

 

 

Ok. I suppose 1b and 2b are two other reasonable candidates...

[sk7326]

But is catcher the Sox weakest position, which is not the same as a weakness?

 

I don't think there is a significant impact to the team's run margin. It's not as positive as other areas - but I don't think that is an area other teams look at it and think "well, they're pretty screwed there". Arguably catcher is not their diciest position entering the season. (2nd base, take a bow - and even then I don't think Brock Holt as your baseline position is THAT bad)

Edited February 1, 2019 by sk7326

[sk7326]

Ok. I suppose 1b and 2b are two other reasonable candidates...

 

First base is fine. First, the leaguewide production at the position is not that great - and second, that jobshare looks like it should be pretty steady, and there are ways to supplement weakness there. (like giving JD Martinez a few whirls there)

[dgalehouse]

98 wins and a maxed out playoff run to another championship would be just as nice.

 

Doing it without Kimbrel might make it seem sweeter.

 

 

The flip side of that is , how miserable would it be if our failure to spend on the bullpen caused the Yanks to beat us out in the division ?

[iortiz]

To this point your team has not improved, you've dropped. To this point the Yanks have improved a fair amount. We are coming for you

 

LOL! Kimbrel is replaceble with what we have. Who else? Kelly? Really? Boy sucked most of the time last year. That’s it jacko.

 

We still have the best rotation and offense in baseball with an average BP, which is not set to go yet.

 

This team doesn’t need anything else. It’s set to win it all again. Don’t believe me? Just watch us.

[moonslav59]

The flip side of that is , how miserable would it be if our failure to spend on the bullpen caused the Yanks to beat us out in the division ?

 

Yeah, maybe we should have not spent so much on making every other position so good.

 

It would be nice to have a stronger pen, but our pen is not weak.

 

It would be nice to have a great defensive catcher that gets the most out of our staff AND can hit, but our catching position is not weak.

 

It would be nice to have a 2Bman we can count on, but with 3 of them, our 2B position does not appear to be weak.

 

Our 3B position was very weak last year, but nobody talks about not spending there.

 

We'll make do with what we have, and we have a solid team that is better than everyone else, despite our issues in the pen.

 

We have a solid rotation with decent starter depth, especially if Wright is well.

 

I'm super pumped about our chances. If the pen ends up blowing our chances this year, then that would suck, and many here could be vindicated, but I'm still waiting for someone to say where DD should have skimped or traded someone away, so we could get a closer?

 

Beni? Porcello?

 

Okay, one could argue for not signing Eovaldi and letting Wright, Johnson and Velazquez fight over the 5 slot. We could actually let Eovaldi close. I'm not sure the Pearce signing would have helped us upgrade the pen as much as some here seem to want.I guess we could pin our hopes on oft-injured Moreland and Chavis at a position most teams rake.

 

I love this team. I think the whole great pen movement has peaked. Maybe DD is ahead of the curve.

 

Or not.

 

 

[iortiz]

You are missing something boys. Our offense can eat any BP in Baseball alive. Any.

 

Said that, our BP is going to be oks. Our guys at the front office know what they are doing.

[dgalehouse]

Well , let's see what happens and hope for the best . I worry about getting into a tight game with the Yankees that comes down to the bullpens. It is not normal for me to be pessimistic. I was more upbeat than anyone the last three seasons . Always confident while many fretted. I felt we had every situation covered. I do remember expressing doubt during the post season after the 2013 title. I thought the inactive post season smacked of complacency and we were headed for trouble. I remember some scoffing and saying there was nothing to worry about . When it came to pass just as I feared , no one would admit it . They found other reasons for the failure. Now , I don't expect another collapse like that this year , but I sure don't want to gamble on a wild card win or go home game either . This is a rare opportunity to repeat. Let's not blow it.

[moonslav59]

Well , let's see what happens and hope for the best . I worry about getting into a tight game with the Yankees that comes down to the bullpens. It is not normal for me to be pessimistic. I was more upbeat than anyone the last three seasons . Always confident while many fretted. I felt we had every situation covered. I do remember expressing doubt during the post season after the 2013 title. I thought the inactive post season smacked of complacency and we were headed for trouble. I remember some scoffing and saying there was nothing to worry about . When it came to pass just as I feared , no one would admit it . They found other reasons for the failure. Now , I don't expect another collapse like that this year , but I sure don't want to gamble on a wild card win or go home game either . This is a rare opportunity to repeat. Let's not blow it.

 

I hear you, and I'm not trying to prove you wrong. I wish we had a better closer or an extra set-up guy that is solid.

 

I just look at all the teams that have tried to follow the strong pen trend getting eliminated early. I'm not one to claim one way to build a winner should be based on the most recent success story, and the playoffs are small sample sizes, but last winter many here, including myself, felt our pen was the weakest area on the team (not weak but weakest), and we dominated the playoffs despite the fact that our closer, the best in MLB over the last 9 years, was a walking time bomb that never detonated.

 

There are many ways to make it to the dance or win it all. Teams have won with weak starters or weak pens. Weak offenses or weak defenses.

 

Some team win with multiple weak areas have won. Look at the 2015 Royals.Imagine the lack of hope Sox fans would have had going into that season and more importantly, those playoffs.

 

Only 2 of their top 8 SP'er had an ERA below 4.08. 2 of their top 6 were over 4.76.

 

Their pen was dominating and helped lead to the whole idea that a strong pen and defense might be all that is needed. (Wade Davis, Greg Holland, Kelvin HerreraRyan Madson & Franklin Morales)

 

Their offense was not bad, in fact 6 of their top 10 PA players hit over .800, but the other 4 of their top 9 were .706, .640, .614 and .552. Escobar had the second most PAs on the team and had a .614 OPS. We'd be going bonkers if we had a "weakness" like that! (.734 team OPS)

 

Nobody with more than 22 HRs and only 2 guys with 93 or more RBIs.

 

[dgalehouse]

I do think that in today's game , the bullpen is very important . They are involved in the outcome of just about every close game . The advantage of having an elite closer is that the other guys all move back an inning , and you become stronger in every inning . Now , in the postseason, it becomes all hands on deck and you win games any way you can . You never know who the hero might be . But you have to get there first. It is possible to get there without a great pen , but not recommended.

[moonslav59]

I've been accused of being a homer a few times, and I'm usually on the optimistic side with my yearly projections, but I really see a lot of hopeful areas on this team, despite the obvious drop in our pen value on paper this winter. I know it's asking a lot for Betts and JD to even repeat 2018, let alone pick up some of the slack with the expected pen drop off. We might very well need to pick up slack from Kimbrel's bolting to a drop off from Betts and JD and maybe someone else.

 

Maybe none of the things I'm about to list as possible areas to improve are probable, but several could be, and the sheer number of them gives us a better chance that several should occur. The main point is, we don't need all of these to happen. We may not even need half to happen for us to overcome some declines in a few areas. Maybe even a third could be enough.

 

Here it goes:

 

1) Addition by subtraction. Bye-bye to...

Pomeranz 6.08 ERA in 74 IP

Kelly (maybe not really fits here) 4.39 in 66 IP

Beeks, Scott & Haley (19 ERs in 23 IP)

HRam .708 in 195 PAs (More for Pearce)

Kinsler .604 in 143 (More for Pedey/Holt/Nunez)

 

2) Eovaldi and Pearce for 6 months not 2.

 

3) Sale & ERod stay healthy. This alone could do the trick by giving us 100 more IP combined.

 

4) Johnson, Velazquez, Hembree, Workman, Thornburg or Smtih finally come of age or return to their brief moments of greatness.

 

5) Steven Wright. The guy has shown he can pitch like an ace.

 

6) Pedey. Maybe a long shot, but the there is huge upside potential at 2B.

 

7) Nunez plays like 2017 not 2018 or Holt continues to build his stamina/dependability.

 

8) Here' my favorite: Rafael Devers. This kid could bust out in a way nobody can imagine. I'm almost positive, barring an injury, he'll take a major step this season.

 

9) The 1B platoon offers some hope for a gain over 2018's pretty low numbers. Moreland not having to play hurt could help. Pearce is hard to project, but there is upside desspite his age.

 

10) Catcher offense. If Vaz and Leon can hit their career OPS, we could see a 100 point gain here.

 

11) JBJ. He had his longest steady streak of his career (4 months) and a spectacular post season. Is it far-fetched to think he might be able to do it for 6 months.

 

12) Bogey. He took a huge step up last year at age 25. He has not reached prime yet, so there is reason to hope he could keep improving.

 

13) Betts and JD are likely to regress, but there is some hope for the same or even better. Betts is still pre-prime and JD is not old.

 

14) Porcello. Can he give us a season close to his Cy Young year? This is his contract year, and he'll only be 30.

 

15) Price. Maybe his playoff performance and the loss of that pesty monkey clawing on his back will complete his re-invention as a true pitcher and not a thrower. Maybe.

 

16) Barnes & Brasier. Both gave lots of reasons for having hopes and promises.

 

17) The farm. I've been pretty down on our farm, but there is some hope we could get a significant boost from someone- most likely later in the season:

 

Chavis or Dalbec

Shawaryn or D Hernandez

Poyner, Lakins, Walden, Houck or Feltman

 

18) Cora. He's not an improvement, but maybe he learned some things from his first season as a manager.

 

19) Beni. The sky could still be the limit for this kid. Ifq he can improve his offense vs LHPs, he could be top 10 in several categories.

 

20) Did I forget to say how happy I am we still have...

 

Chris Freakin' Sale!

[moonslav59]

I do think that in today's game , the bullpen is very important . They are involved in the outcome of just about every close game . The advantage of having an elite closer is that the other guys all move back an inning , and you become stronger in every inning . Now , in the postseason, it becomes all hands on deck and you win games any way you can . You never know who the hero might be . But you have to get there first. It is possible to get there without a great pen , but not recommended.

 

True.

 

I'm glad the rest of the team is so solid.

Edited February 1, 2019 by moonslav59

[jacksonianmarch]

Moon, that’s a homer post if I’ve ever seen one, wow. Yes, you subtracted Drew Pomeranz. You’re replacing Pomeranz (who ended up as the last guy in your pen) with more Brian Johnson time. Johnson is not good, so this might end up a wash

 

You guys keep talking about Steven Wright. He had another knee surgery in November. He’s likely to start the year on the DL. He had the same surgery as pedroia. Counting him as death isn’t a great idea

 

Pearce has never proven to be anything more than a platoon guy, and now he’s a 36 yr old platoon guy

 

Eovaldi for a full year will help, assuming he plays the full year. He’s the man of glass with questionable yearly production. You’re expecting the guy from the playoffs. You’ll see him in spurts, but a lot of frustration will accompany him

 

Sale and ERod are healthy? Sale wasn’t healthy to end the year with a shoulder problem. How do you know he’s going to be healthy? He missed 10 starts due to the injury and there was no post season resolution. And ERod is likely healthy, but he’s also made of glass. He’s never proven to stay healthy

 

Nunez looked slow last year. The knee injury from 2017 clearly isn’t fixed. He didn’t have a procedure. You’ll see more of the same.

 

Brock Holt is a very solid super sub. If he is your full year starting 2b, his effectiveness will wane

 

Devers should be better. He’s better than his 2018 showed

 

Your 1b platoon got way more than you could have hoped. Moreland played to his career norms. HanRam was good for a month. Pearce hit like JD for two months. Asking for more is greedy

 

Lol, expecting improvement offensively from the C position when they’re not hitters is rosy glasses.

 

Expecting improvement from JBJ is the same. He’s streaky.

 

You guys got a good Price season, a great Sale 2/3 season, career type seasons from JD, Bogey, and Betts. You lost one of the best closers in baseball and a rather reliable setup man and aren’t replacing them. Actual big league depth isn’t there. Outside of Porcelli, every pitcher in your rotation has questions, three of the arm related. While I guess you could say the Sox May improve in fantasy land somewhere, chances are one of your pitchers is gonna miss the year. Your middle of the order won’t be AS devastating.

 

You’re in the AL East. The Sox, Yanks and Rays won nearly 300 games. The yanks and rays got better. If you’re not getting better, you fall behind

[Bellhorn04]

You’re in the AL East. The Sox, Yanks and Rays won nearly 300 games. The yanks and rays got better. If you’re not getting better, you fall behind

 

It's gonna be a war, man.

[moonslav59]

Moon, that’s a homer post if I’ve ever seen one, wow.

 

1) I said I was giving the optimistic view.

2) Isaid many of what I listed are not probable hopes.

3) We may only need 1/3 to come true. Assuming others stay more or less even

 

Yes, you subtracted Drew Pomeranz. You’re replacing Pomeranz (who ended up as the last guy in your pen) with more Brian Johnson time. Johnson is not good, so this might end up a wash.

1) I doubt Johnson takes all those innings, but if he does he probably won't have an ERA over 6.00.

2) Wright and Velazquez are available.

3) Eovaldi, in theory, should take all of Pom and other scrubs' starts.

 

You guys keep talking about Steven Wright. He had another knee surgery in November. He’s likely to start the year on the DL. He had the same surgery as pedroia. Counting him as death isn’t a great idea.

1) I'm not counting on them. I'm saying they are hopes.

2) Wright was almost ready for the playoffs.

3) I admit both are just hopes and prayers, but they are good if healthy.

 

Pearce has never proven to be anything more than a platoon guy, and now he’s a 36 yr old platoon guy.

1) A 6 month good platoon guy is better than a 2 month one.

2) His numbers vs RHP have been pretty good as he ages.

3) He's better than HRam and gives us better depth, if Moreland gets hurt (again).

 

Eovaldi for a full year will help, assuming he plays the full year. He’s the man of glass with questionable yearly production. You’re expecting the guy from the playoffs. You’ll see him in spurts, but a lot of frustration will accompany him.

He's a better hope than Pom, Johnson and Velazquez.

 

Sale and ERod are healthy? Sale wasn’t healthy to end the year with a shoulder problem. How do you know he’s going to be healthy? He missed 10 starts due to the injury and there was no post season resolution. And ERod is likely healthy, but he’s also made of glass. He’s never proven to stay healthy.

1) Sale says he feels great.

2) ERod's injuries are never his arm or shoulder. They have been, more or less, bad luck.

3) We could get 120 more innings from them, but even 50-60 more would be a huge boost. (Johnson stays in the pen.)

 

Nunez looked slow last year. The knee injury from 2017 clearly isn’t fixed. He didn’t have a procedure. You’ll see more of the same.

Again, probably, but he looked more nimble at season's end than the rest.

 

Brock Holt is a very solid super sub. If he is your full year starting 2b, his effectiveness will wane.

He shouldn't have to be, but I agree. He did look more durable last year.

 

Devers should be better. He’s better than his 2018 showed.

You know as well as I do, he very easily could be great.

 

Your 1b platoon got way more than you could have hoped. Moreland played to his career norms. HanRam was good for a month. Pearce hit like JD for two months. Asking for more is greedy.

I agree, I pushed it here. We very well may fall short of our 1B OPS of .794 last year, but if we can stick to a straight platoon, and our 1Bmen hit their career splits, we might see this:

 

 

.780 Moreland vs RHP

.852 Pearce vs LHPs

 

That may end up being over .800 combined.

 

 

Lol, expecting improvement offensively from the C position when they’re not hitters is rosy glasses.

1) Expecting or suggesting what might be with their career norms is "rosy?"

2) Vaz is still pre-prime. Leon may not catch as much, if Vaz stays healthy.

3) Just asking for .650 would be a huge gain.

 

Expecting improvement from JBJ is the same. He’s streaky.

Again, I never came close to saying I expect any of this. I even went out of my way to say most are NOT probable.

I do think JBJ's chances are 50-50. He's had 2 seasons over .800, and last year he was good+ for about 5 months in a row

 

You guys got a good Price season, a great Sale 2/3 season, career type seasons from JD, Bogey, and Betts. You lost one of the best closers in baseball and a rather reliable setup man and aren’t replacing them. Actual big league depth isn’t there. Outside of Porcelli, every pitcher in your rotation has questions, three of the arm related. While I guess you could say the Sox May improve in fantasy land somewhere, chances are one of your pitchers is gonna miss the year. Your middle of the order won’t be AS devastating.

Betts and Bogey missed time. Even if they drop some, but play more, they could add value.

 

You’re in the AL East. The Sox, Yanks and Rays won nearly 300 games. The yanks and rays got better. If you’re not getting better, you fall behind.

We can drop some and still beat your ass! (With all due respect.

[BillyWilliams]

I've been accused of being a homer a few times, and I'm usually on the optimistic side with my yearly projections,

 

That's why I always thought this should be called the "optimistic thread" and not the realistic view.............

[moonslav59]

That's why I always thought this should be called the "optimistic thread" and not the realistic view.............

 

I qualified my recent post as being the optimistic view and not the probable view, but none of my suggested upside possibilities were unrealistic.

 

Optimism and realism are not opposites of each other.

 

(Also, I have been critical of many aspects of the Sox over the years. I've been tough on Moreland, Holt, managers, GMs and other players.)

[kenmeister]

Last off-season right after we signed JDM I was asked how many wins I thought the Sox would have. I really felt the answer was 105+, but because I wanted to be 'realistic', I said 97-98. Sometimes optimism shouldn't be tempered

[moonslav59]

Last off-season right after we signed JDM I was asked how many wins I thought the Sox would have. I really felt the answer was 105+, but because I wanted to be 'realistic', I said 97-98. Sometimes optimism shouldn't be tempered

 

I think I did the same on the poll someone posted, but when I did my projections, I think I said 100 or 102.

 

I guess last year's realistic thread was pessimistic.

Edited February 1, 2019 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

I think I did the same on the poll someone posted, but when I did my projections, I think I said 100 or 102.

 

I guess last year's realistic thread was pessimistic.

 

Our Pythagorean record was 103-59, so you were pretty close.

 

One should never predict that their team is going to win 108 games in this crazy freakin' game, IMHO.

[Nick]

Moon, you don't ever have to apologize for being a homer. I think you keep it pretty real.

 

Same people were predicting imminent demise during the pennant stretch last year.

 

You simply listed the upsides.

[sk7326]

It's gonna be a war, man.

 

the Yankees made improvements - the big one was Paxton in the rotation. The signings for the bullpen are nice, but given the extreme volatility of relief pitching, it is hard to call any bullpen all set. I mean the Yankees bragged about being able to make 5 inning games last season and a fat load of good it did in the Division Series.

 

What is interesting about the AL East is that the Rays improved on paper at least as much as the Yankees have, and are coming off of a 90 win season. For all the Sox-Yankee talk, it is actually a 3 team race. I mean if I were to handicap the AL East pct likelihood I'd go:

 

Red Sox 45%

Yankees 35%

Rays 19.9%

Field 0.1%