A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

Let's put it this way . If we ( God forbid ) do fall short this year , and it appears that it was the bullpen that derailed us , we certainly will not admit it . We will come up with other reasons . It's what we do .

 

It's what some do. As you know very well, if our bullpen blows a few games early, there will be pandemonium on the game threads.

[dgalehouse]

It's what some do. As you know very well, if our bullpen blows a few games early, there will be pandemonium on the game threads.

 

I used to partake in the game threads . I felt like a small ray of optimism and confidence , drowning in a cesspool of steaming pessimism , anger and despair . And this during the most successful Sox season ever . It got to be too much . Now , I seem like the negative one . Go figure .

[Bellhorn04]

I used to partake in the game threads . I felt like a small ray of optimism and confidence , drowning in a cesspool of steaming pessimism , anger and despair . And this during the most successful Sox season ever . It got to be too much . Now , I seem like the negative one . Go figure .

 

No, you're certainly not negative.

[harmony]

the Yankees made improvements - the big one was Paxton in the rotation. The signings for the bullpen are nice, but given the extreme volatility of relief pitching, it is hard to call any bullpen all set. I mean the Yankees bragged about being able to make 5 inning games last season and a fat load of good it did in the Division Series.

This fan of the Seattle Mariners and James Paxton wishes the lefthander well in New York.

 

However, I found this comp interesting (if not particularly meaningful):

 

James Paxton and Erik Bedard are Canadian lefthanders who were involved in major Seattle Mariner trades, each with two years of team control remaining.

 

The Baltimore Orioles traded a 29-year-old Bedard to the Mariners when the southpaw was coming off a 2007 season with this line:

 

182 IP, 28 GS, 13-5 W/L, 3.16 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 3.88 K/BB, 146 ERA+, 5.7 bWAR, 5.0 fWAR

 

The Mariners traded a 30-year-old Paxton to the New York Yankees when the lefty was coming off a 2018 season with this line:

 

160.1 IP, 28 GS, 11-6 W/L, 3.76 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 4.95 K/BB, 108 ERA+, 2.9 bWAR, 3.8 fWAR

 

Compare their career lines at the time of each trade:

 

EB 658 IP, 114 G, 111 GS, 3.83 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 2.52 K/BB, 118 ERA+, 12.8 bWAR, 15.5 fWAR

JP 582.1 IP, 102 G, 102 GS, 3.42 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 3.67 K/BB, 117 ERA+, 10.9 bWAR, 14.1 fWAR

 

The Orioles traded Bedard for outfielder Adam Jones (who had lost his prospect status with a lackluster MLB debut after being Baseball America's 28th-ranked prospect the previous spring), righthander Chris Tillman (BA's 67th-ranked prospect after the trade and 22nd-ranked prospect the following year), three years of lefty reliever George Sherrill (who made the All Star team in 2008 before fading), righthanded reliever Kam Mickolio (whose MLB career was limited to 29 games) and lefthander Tony Butler (who never pitched above Double A).

 

The Mariners traded Paxton for lefthander Justus Sheffield (BA's 41st-ranked prospect a year ago and MLB Prospect Watch's 31st-ranked prospect this year), as well as two unranked prospects: righthander Erik Swanson and outfielder Dom Thompson-Williams.

 

Again, interesting but not necessarily meaningful.

[moonslav59]

Red Sox To Sign Dan Runzler

By Jeff Todd | February 1, 2019 at 7:35pm CDT

 

The Red Sox have added reliever Dan Runzler on a minors deal, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com (via Twitter). It isn’t yet known whether he’ll receive an invitation to participate in MLB camp.

 

A southpaw who’ll soon turn 34, Runzler has appeared in five big league seasons, though he hasn’t been a substantial contributor since 2013. All told, he owns a 3.89 ERA with 9.7 K/9 and 5.4 BB/9 over 76 1/3 innings at the game’s highest level.

 

Runzler has mostly toiled at Triple-A and in the Atlantic League over recent years, but did briefly crack the bigs with the Pirates in 2017. He possesses mid-nineties heat from the left side, but hasn’t consistently been able to command it. In 2018, he threw 48 innings of 2.81 ERA ball with the Sugar Land Skeeters, racking up 58 strikeouts but also doling out 27 free passes.

[dgalehouse]

Red Sox To Sign Dan Runzler

By Jeff Todd | February 1, 2019 at 7:35pm CDT

 

The Red Sox have added reliever Dan Runzler on a minors deal, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com (via Twitter). It isn’t yet known whether he’ll receive an invitation to participate in MLB camp.

 

A southpaw who’ll soon turn 34, Runzler has appeared in five big league seasons, though he hasn’t been a substantial contributor since 2013. All told, he owns a 3.89 ERA with 9.7 K/9 and 5.4 BB/9 over 76 1/3 innings at the game’s highest level.

 

Runzler has mostly toiled at Triple-A and in the Atlantic League over recent years, but did briefly crack the bigs with the Pirates in 2017. He possesses mid-nineties heat from the left side, but hasn’t consistently been able to command it. In 2018, he threw 48 innings of 2.81 ERA ball with the Sugar Land Skeeters, racking up 58 strikeouts but also doling out 27 free passes.

There are quite a few has been and never was mediocrities out there , but I'll say this much about Runzler , he's one of them .

[sk7326]

This fan of the Seattle Mariners and James Paxton wishes the lefthander well in New York.

 

However, I found this comp interesting (if not particularly meaningful):

 

James Paxton and Erik Bedard are Canadian lefthanders who were involved in major Seattle Mariner trades, each with two years of team control remaining.

 

The Baltimore Orioles traded a 29-year-old Bedard to the Mariners when the southpaw was coming off a 2007 season with this line:

 

182 IP, 28 GS, 13-5 W/L, 3.16 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 3.88 K/BB, 146 ERA+, 5.7 bWAR, 5.0 fWAR

 

The Mariners traded a 30-year-old Paxton to the New York Yankees when the lefty was coming off a 2018 season with this line:

 

160.1 IP, 28 GS, 11-6 W/L, 3.76 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 4.95 K/BB, 108 ERA+, 2.9 bWAR, 3.8 fWAR

 

Compare their career lines at the time of each trade:

 

EB 658 IP, 114 G, 111 GS, 3.83 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 2.52 K/BB, 118 ERA+, 12.8 bWAR, 15.5 fWAR

JP 582.1 IP, 102 G, 102 GS, 3.42 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 3.67 K/BB, 117 ERA+, 10.9 bWAR, 14.1 fWAR

 

The Orioles traded Bedard for outfielder Adam Jones (who had lost his prospect status with a lackluster MLB debut after being Baseball America's 28th-ranked prospect the previous spring), righthander Chris Tillman (BA's 67th-ranked prospect after the trade and 22nd-ranked prospect the following year), three years of lefty reliever George Sherrill (who made the All Star team in 2008 before fading), righthanded reliever Kam Mickolio (whose MLB career was limited to 29 games) and lefthander Tony Butler (who never pitched above Double A).

 

The Mariners traded Paxton for lefthander Justus Sheffield (BA's 41st-ranked prospect a year ago and MLB Prospect Watch's 31st-ranked prospect this year), as well as two unranked prospects: righthander Erik Swanson and outfielder Dom Thompson-Williams.

 

Again, interesting but not necessarily meaningful.

 

Key will be injuries - which was Bedard's undoing as much as anything. And I am not saying Paxton is an ace - it's that he can give them a reliable somebody, and by the end of last season the Yankees were severely lacking in reliable anybodies in the rotation.

[moonslav59]

Steve Adams....

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/02/a-closer-look-at-the-red-sox-and-the-luxury-tax.html

 

Here is part of the article

 

If the Sox were to pay Kimbrel a $17.5MM annual salary, the first $4,703,803 of that salary would close the gap between Boston’s current “actual” payroll and the $246MM threshold. As noted above, that’d come with a $1,986,937 luxury hit, coming to a total of $6,690,740. The remaining $12,769,197 would come with a hefty tax of $9,576,898. That’s a total of $11.564MM just in taxes before considering the money the team would actually owe to Kimbrel himself.

 

Viewed through that lens, Boston would effectively be on the hook for a stunning $29,036,835 in 2019 if they were to sign Kimbrel at the record rate he’s quite likely eyeing. (A multi-year deal, of course, might have greater or lesser salaries in its various seasons, though that’s all averaged for the CBT.) Frankly, even beyond any concerns about lengthy commitment to a not-so-youthful reliever, it’s pretty clear to see why the Sox don’t have much interest in retaining Kimbrel unless his price tag craters (at which point a plethora of other teams would join the bidding). Though the total luxury tax bill would still not make up an enormous amount of the team’s total payroll-related spending, it would perhaps turn a Kimbrel signing from a hefty investment to an eye-popping splurge.

 

That math is also informative when examining why the Sox have passed over other top-end relievers. For instance, beating the Yankees’ three-year, $27MM offer to Adam Ottavino by a margin of $500K annually would’ve still been costly for Boston. As with any contract, the first $4,703,803 of the deal would’ve been taxed at $1,986,937. The remaining $4,796,197 would come with a $3,597,148. In total, signing Ottavino at a $9.5MM annual salary would effectively cost $15.084MM in 2019.

[sk7326]

It's just as well, with the volatility of relievers, unless you can find a reliable multi inning guy, just throwing bodies at it is not a terrible idea.

[harmony]

Key will be injuries - which was Bedard's undoing as much as anything. And I am not saying Paxton is an ace - it's that he can give them a reliable somebody, and by the end of last season the Yankees were severely lacking in reliable anybodies in the rotation.

Erik Bedard had pitched more innings through his age 28 season than James Paxton has pitched through his age 29 season.

 

I am a fan of James Paxton, who pitched a career high of 28 starts and 160.1 innings last year, but durability describes neither Bedard nor Paxton.

[moonslav59]

Erik Bedard had pitched more innings through his age 28 season than James Paxton has pitched through his age 29 season.

 

I am a fan of James Paxton, who pitched a career high of 28 starts and 160.1 innings last year, but durability describes neither Bedard nor Paxton.

 

Only Sox pitchers lack durability.

 

Now that Paxton is a Yank, he's a lock for 200+ IP.

[Nick]

Not that I'm hoping but I think there's a possibility exists Pedroia will retire if he has another set back in spring training. No matter what anyone is saying, I'll believe it when I see him on the field.

 

That will free up $13M+.

[moonslav59]

Not that I'm hoping but I think there's a possibility exists Pedroia will retire if he has another set back in spring training. No matter what anyone is saying, I'll believe it when I see him on the field.

 

That will free up $13M+.

 

He may never play again, but retiring and giving up all those millions is a long shot call.

 

Dempster did it, but that was just one year left.

[Nick]

He may never play again, but retiring and giving up all those millions is a long shot call.

 

Dempster did it, but that was just one year left.

 

I dont believe he will go on DL for 4 years just to collect his money.

[moonslav59]

I dont believe he will go on DL for 4 years just to collect his money.

 

He may keep the dream of a comeback alive for a year or two more.

 

That's too much to just give back.

 

Maybe he would restructure the deal into a 25 year personal services deal.

[moonslav59]

Not that I'm hoping but I think there's a possibility exists Pedroia will retire if he has another set back in spring training. No matter what anyone is saying, I'll believe it when I see him on the field.

 

That will free up $13M+.

 

There's probably a better chance of him getting healthy than giving all that money back.

[notin]

Not that I'm hoping but I think there's a possibility exists Pedroia will retire if he has another set back in spring training. No matter what anyone is saying, I'll believe it when I see him on the field.

 

That will free up $13M+.

 

He’s not walking away from all that money. There’s a better chance he tracks you down next offseason and cuts you a check for 25mill than there is of him retiring just so DD can get somebody for the bullpen...

[S5Dewey]

 

Maybe he would restructure the deal into a 25 year personal services deal.

 

This is what I see him doing if he decides he can't play. He's not going to walk away from baseball. It's his life. He's going to want a place where he's respected and can contribute, and there's no better place for that than in Boston. He's also got a big ego and he'd be a hero here if he'd agree to that. Restructuring his contract makes the most sense for everyone.

 

Oh.. and also he gets to keep making money,

[Kimmi]

It's what some do. As you know very well, if our bullpen blows a few games early, there will be pandemonium on the game threads.

 

Truth.

 

Please don't let the BP blow any games early.

[Kimmi]

It's just as well, with the volatility of relievers, unless you can find a reliable multi inning guy, just throwing bodies at it is not a terrible idea.

 

My man.

[Kimmi]

Not that I'm hoping but I think there's a possibility exists Pedroia will retire if he has another set back in spring training. No matter what anyone is saying, I'll believe it when I see him on the field.

 

That will free up $13M+.

 

I would not be surprised if Pedroia retired and forfeited his money if he can no longer play. I know that's crazy talk, but I can see him doing that. As someone else suggested, the team could hire him in some kind of coaching capacity instead.

 

That said, I'm sure the union would frown upon that.

[cp176]

Steve Adams....

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/02/a-closer-look-at-the-red-sox-and-the-luxury-tax.html

 

Here is part of the article

 

If the Sox were to pay Kimbrel a $17.5MM annual salary, the first $4,703,803 of that salary would close the gap between Boston’s current “actual” payroll and the $246MM threshold. As noted above, that’d come with a $1,986,937 luxury hit, coming to a total of $6,690,740. The remaining $12,769,197 would come with a hefty tax of $9,576,898. That’s a total of $11.564MM just in taxes before considering the money the team would actually owe to Kimbrel himself.

 

Viewed through that lens, Boston would effectively be on the hook for a stunning $29,036,835 in 2019 if they were to sign Kimbrel at the record rate he’s quite likely eyeing. (A multi-year deal, of course, might have greater or lesser salaries in its various seasons, though that’s all averaged for the CBT.) Frankly, even beyond any concerns about lengthy commitment to a not-so-youthful reliever, it’s pretty clear to see why the Sox don’t have much interest in retaining Kimbrel unless his price tag craters (at which point a plethora of other teams would join the bidding). Though the total luxury tax bill would still not make up an enormous amount of the team’s total payroll-related spending, it would perhaps turn a Kimbrel signing from a hefty investment to an eye-popping splurge.

 

That math is also informative when examining why the Sox have passed over other top-end relievers. For instance, beating the Yankees’ three-year, $27MM offer to Adam Ottavino by a margin of $500K annually would’ve still been costly for Boston. As with any contract, the first $4,703,803 of the deal would’ve been taxed at $1,986,937. The remaining $4,796,197 would come with a $3,597,148. In total, signing Ottavino at a $9.5MM annual salary would effectively cost $15.084MM in 2019.

 

Now it does make a little sense to me. If it is likely to wind up costing 29,000,000 to retain Kimbrel's services in real money, you just have to pass.

[Bellhorn04]

According to Cot's, Sox still has $8.4M before going over the ultimate hell limit of $246M.

 

That's plenty of money for DD to do what he did last summer.

 

We're good to go.

 

My thought is if we fail this year, it won't be the bullpen that will derail us.

 

As it turns out, per Jacko's new thread on the payroll, the Cot's number is about 3.5 million low...not all the blocks are filled in.

[notin]

Now it does make a little sense to me. If it is likely to wind up costing 29,000,000 to retain Kimbrel's services in real money, you just have to pass.

 

 

It is a little slanted in that article.

 

I mean, it’s not solely because of a deal they give Kimbrel. They have 40 other contracts counting towards that amount...

[Bellhorn04]

It is a little slanted in that article.

 

I mean, it’s not solely because of a deal they give Kimbrel. They have 40 other contracts counting towards that amount...

 

That's 100% correct. But this is the nature of thresholds and marginal tax rates. What is the incremental cost of the next addition?

[cp176]

It is a little slanted in that article.

 

I mean, it’s not solely because of a deal they give Kimbrel. They have 40 other contracts counting towards that amount...

 

I do understand that but the reality is that given what we currently have, paying that much in totality is too much to pay. I still wish that we had him coming back and I guess a part of me stills sees a slight chance of it happening.

[notin]

I do understand that but the reality is that given what we currently have, paying that much in totality is too much to pay. I still wish that we had him coming back and I guess a part of me stills sees a slight chance of it happening.

 

 

Think of Kimbrel as an ex-girlfriend.

 

Sure it was fun for while, but it’s time to move on...

[notin]

As it turns out, per Jacko's new thread on the payroll, the Cot's number is about 3.5 million low...not all the blocks are filled in.

 

 

I still think the Sox should squeeze one more actual MLB arm in there. I hope at least one of Tyler Clippard, Nick Vincent, Aaron Loup, Xavier Cedeno, Alex Wilson, or Derek Law might fit the nudge.

 

The Dbacks also DFAd Jake Barrett, a briefly tenured closer with 95mph heat. DD might throw a minor league deal that way as well...

[dgalehouse]

Now it does make a little sense to me. If it is likely to wind up costing 29,000,000 to retain Kimbrel's services in real money, you just have to pass.

 

If you read the rest of the article , it does go on to question whether it is wise to risk the rare chance to repeat by drawing the line at this time .

[notin]

If you read the rest of the article , it does go on to question whether it is wise to risk the rare chance to repeat by drawing the line at this time .

 

 

The thing is it looks like Dombrowski has been planning for Kimbrel’s departure for a couple years, stockpiling young, cheap, budding closers like Smith and Thornburg. But it has most definitely not hone according to plan...