A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[dgalehouse]

Red Sox chief medical officer , Dr . Vinnie Boombatz weighed in on the chances of Pedroia being healthy again . He said , " Knees can be tricky . "

[Nick]

As it turns out, per Jacko's new thread on the payroll, the Cot's number is about 3.5 million low...not all the blocks are filled in.

 

Nope, wrong.

 

Cot's is very thorough. It has listed 22 contract amounts, lumped together 3 players at $1.725M, has balance of 40 man roster at $2.250M and Pablo's contract amount. 41 Players are accounted for.

[notin]

Nope, wrong.

 

Cot's is very thorough. It has listed 22 contract amounts, lumped together 3 players at $1.725M, has balance of 40 man roster at $2.250M and Pablo's contract amount. 41 Players are accounted for.

 

So does that mean that, if the Sox add no one else, they could trade for Wade Davis on July 31 and still not go over?

[Bellhorn04]

Nope, wrong.

 

Cot's is very thorough. It has listed 22 contract amounts, lumped together 3 players at $1.725M, has balance of 40 man roster at $2.250M and Pablo's contract amount. 41 Players are accounted for.

 

Right. The 'Roster Resource' numbers linked by Jacko have another number tossed in for 'estimated other players with non-guaranteed contracts', about 3.75 million. No idea exactly what it represents.

[Nick]

So does that mean that, if the Sox add no one else, they could trade for Wade Davis on July 31 and still not go over?

 

Yep, but we'd be on the hooks for full $14M in 2020 and 2021 but I digress.

 

I think Moon and I agree that we can upgrade the bullpen at trade deadline. I just don't believe 'pen will blow it for the year' by 7/31/19.

Edited February 2, 2019 by Nick

[Nick]

Let's really lay out what the management thinks of bullpen.

 

Starting Five

 

Price $31M, Porcello $20.625, Eovaldi, $17M, Sale $15M, E Rod $5M for total of $88.625M.

 

8 relievers at $8.8525M.

 

Does it seem to anyone bullpen is that critical?

[moonslav59]

Now it does make a little sense to me. If it is likely to wind up costing 29,000,000 to retain Kimbrel's services in real money, you just have to pass.

 

Now, a step forward. It is totally possible that DD can have no spending limit but still see how ridiculous it would be to pay Kimbrel $29M for 2019. It's DD who is making the right choice. It's n ot Henry telling him, "No."

[moonslav59]

Yep, but we'd be on the hooks for full $14M in 2020 and 2021 but I digress.

 

I think Moon and I agree that we can upgrade the bullpen at trade deadline. I just don't believe 'pen will blow it for the year' by 7/31/19.

 

Yes, and if things look bad in May or June, it is possible to make deals then, if needed.

[notin]

Let's really lay out what the management thinks of bullpen.

 

Starting Five

 

Price $31M, Porcello $20.625, Eovaldi, $17M, Sale $15M, E Rod $5M for total of $88.625M.

 

8 relievers at $8.8525M.

 

Does it seem to anyone bullpen is that critical?

 

 

The bullpen is certainly critical.

 

Last year the Red Sox starter’s three 871 innings. The bullpen threw 587. So even on a team with good starters, the bullpen handled 40% of the innings. That’s more than 2 SP worth of IP.

 

That doesn’t mean the current pen is doomed just because it lacks salary. But I wouldn’t downplay the importance of the pen either...

[Kimmi]

Let's really lay out what the management thinks of bullpen.

 

Starting Five

 

Price $31M, Porcello $20.625, Eovaldi, $17M, Sale $15M, E Rod $5M for total of $88.625M.

 

8 relievers at $8.8525M.

 

Does it seem to anyone bullpen is that critical?

 

The bullpen is critical.

 

It's just not an area that needs to cost a lot of money.

[sk7326]

Let's really lay out what the management thinks of bullpen.

 

Starting Five

 

Price $31M, Porcello $20.625, Eovaldi, $17M, Sale $15M, E Rod $5M for total of $88.625M.

 

8 relievers at $8.8525M.

 

Does it seem to anyone bullpen is that critical?

 

The bullpen is critical. But what they are doing is sound - signing a ton of guys with some swing and miss in their profiles and counting on a some of them to hit. On top of the dumpster diving they've done, there are some possibilities on the farm (Travis Lakins particularly). The remaining budget allows them to add another body during the season if necessary.

[moonslav59]

The bullpen is critical. But what they are doing is sound - signing a ton of guys with some swing and miss in their profiles and counting on a some of them to hit. On top of the dumpster diving they've done, there are some possibilities on the farm (Travis Lakins particularly). The remaining budget allows them to add another body during the season if necessary.

 

Worst case scenario: we take too long going through all our options and we lose the division and have to play-in to make the playoffs due to all the experimenting.

 

I still am fine with this plan. I don't want to see our draft pick lowered two years in a row. I don't want every other fan in the world using our insanely high budgets as evidence in the "Sox buy championships" argument. I don't want our rebuild years to be harder than it already looks like it will be.

 

I like our odds this year.

 

Back-to-back!

 

[moonslav59]

If all 5 starters are healthy, here are our pen options:

 

Barnes

Brasier

 

Hembree

Thornburg

Workman

 

(starters>RP'ers)

Wright

Johnson

Velazquez

Shawaryn

Erasmo Ramirez

 

Poyner

Lakins

Brewer

Walden

Putman

Runzler

Ellington

 

Feltman (AA)

 

[moonslav59]

Assuming everyone is healthy, here's my opinion on what the depth chart looks like right now:

 

SP

Sale

Price

Porcello

ERod

Eovaldi

Wright

Johnson

Velazquez

Shawaryn

D Hernandez (AA)

Shepherd

 

C

Vazquez

Leon

Swihart

Centeno

Hernandez

A Rei (AA)

 

1B

Pearce

Moreland

Holt

Swihart

(JD?)

Chavis

Travis

Ockimey

(Dalbec)

 

2B

Pedroia

Nunez

Holt

Lin

Hernandez

Renda

dela Guerra

 

3B

Devers

Nunez

Holt

Chavis

Dalbec

Witte

 

SS

Bogaerts

Lin

Holt

Hernandez

E Ramirez

 

LF

Benintendi

Martinez

Holt

Swihart

Pearce/Moreland

Nunez

Lin

G Hernandez

 

CF

Bradley

(Betts from RF)

Holt

Lin

 

RF

Betts

Martinez

Holt

Swihart

Lin

Brentz

 

DH

Martinez

Pedroia

Pearce

Devers

Chavis/Dalbec

Nunez

 

[moonslav59]

The All Are Healthy Line-up:

 

1. Beni

2. Betts

3. Bogey

4. Martinez

5. Devers v R/Pearce v L

6. Moreland v R/ Devers v L

7. Pedroia

8. Bradley

9. Vaz (w Porcello/ERod & Eovaldi)/ Leon (w Sale & Price)

 

[cp176]

If you have no other issues with respect to your team, then i guess you could say that any signs of weakness could be considered critical or certainly areas of concern. We really don't have areas of immense weakness on this team. Losing Kimbrel certainly could hurt. Losing Kelley, not so much. Signing Kimbrel to a contract that if you factoring I'm in love with all things statistical guys are right that signing him ultimately costs us 29 million $, would be an absolutely ridiculous thing to do.

[jacksonianmarch]

Your bullpen is absolutely a weakness. You just lost nearly 3WAR of pen between Kimbrel and Kelly and have not replaced them with anything. Last year, your starters averaged 5-1/3 IP per start over 162 games (871.1IP in 162 games). You averaged needing 11 outs per 9 inning game, not counting the extra innings games. You just pulled 1 lockdown relief ace and a somewhat dependable middle relief option out of that rotation and added absolutely nothing. How on earth is that not a weakness? If Barnes goes full on Betances and cannot close (Dellin cannot close, he shits bricks), then who closes for you? The highly contact oriented recent Japanese minor leaguer Brasier? Dumpster dives are great in short stints, but find me a dumpster dive of his magnitude that stays highly effective. The answer is, not many. There are only so many Aaron Small's out there and their star burns out quick. The contingencies are nil and there is a strong chance that your pen becomes a revolving door of kids until you find the guys who can actually get the job done

[Kimmi]

The bullpen is critical. But what they are doing is sound - signing a ton of guys with some swing and miss in their profiles and counting on a some of them to hit. On top of the dumpster diving they've done, there are some possibilities on the farm (Travis Lakins particularly). The remaining budget allows them to add another body during the season if necessary.

 

I fully endorse this post.

[Kimmi]

Worst case scenario: we take too long going through all our options and we lose the division and have to play-in to make the playoffs due to all the experimenting.

 

I still am fine with this plan. I don't want to see our draft pick lowered two years in a row. I don't want every other fan in the world using our insanely high budgets as evidence in the "Sox buy championships" argument. I don't want our rebuild years to be harder than it already looks like it will be.

 

I like our odds this year.

 

Back-to-back!

 

 

As others have said, if we fail to make the playoffs, it won't be because of our bullpen.

 

As far as buying our championships, here are some numbers that I read from a poster at MLB Trade Rumors that should make us feel better:

 

The Yankees have paid $340 mil in tax for one WS championship while the Sox have paid only $47 mil to win 4 WS championships.

[Kimmi]

Your bullpen is absolutely a weakness. You just lost nearly 3WAR of pen between Kimbrel and Kelly and have not replaced them with anything. Last year, your starters averaged 5-1/3 IP per start over 162 games (871.1IP in 162 games). You averaged needing 11 outs per 9 inning game, not counting the extra innings games. You just pulled 1 lockdown relief ace and a somewhat dependable middle relief option out of that rotation and added absolutely nothing. How on earth is that not a weakness? If Barnes goes full on Betances and cannot close (Dellin cannot close, he shits bricks), then who closes for you? The highly contact oriented recent Japanese minor leaguer Brasier? Dumpster dives are great in short stints, but find me a dumpster dive of his magnitude that stays highly effective. The answer is, not many. There are only so many Aaron Small's out there and their star burns out quick. The contingencies are nil and there is a strong chance that your pen becomes a revolving door of kids until you find the guys who can actually get the job done

 

Not signing anyone of "big name" is not the same thing as not replacing them with anything.

 

League average in IP/GS is 5.3. The Red Sox were 6th in the league at 5.4. Our projected top 5 starters averaged 5.7 IP/GS. We will also have 3 guys in our pen (Wright, Johnson, and Velazquez) capable of going multiple innings.

 

Again, if we fail to make the playoffs, it won't be because of our BP. It will be because our starters failed to live up to expectations either due to injuries or underperformances or because our offense fell flat.

[jacksonianmarch]

Not signing anyone of "big name" is not the same thing as not replacing them with anything.

 

League average in IP/GS is 5.3. The Red Sox were 6th in the league at 5.4. Our projected top 5 starters averaged 5.7 IP/GS. We will also have 3 guys in our pen (Wright, Johnson, and Velazquez) capable of going multiple innings.

 

Again, if we fail to make the playoffs, it won't be because of our BP. It will be because our starters failed to live up to expectations either due to injuries or underperformances or because our offense fell flat.

 

You're gonna make the playoffs no matter what IMO. The composite talent on the sox plus the dearth of talent beyond the playoff teams from last year tells me there are 6 teams vying for 5 spots and the sox are still better than the Rays and A's (two teams where I think one of them is team #5). The pen will not cause you to not play beyond 162. But the WC game is a huge change from year's past. You can win 100 games and have a do or die game to go to the ALDS. We've gone 2-1 in that game since it was instituted, and the one loss just plain sucks. You go from being excited your team is in the POs to watching a single game, then the season ends. It blew. With how good the Yankees are on paper coming into this season and the sox leaving a critical piece of today's game completely exposed, there is a strong chance the pen experiment puts you in a play in game. If you're gonna spend to the max line, incur a penalty for last year and probably be forced to incur another this year, your team should do everything in its power to maximize the chances of avoiding a one and done scenario

[moonslav59]

You're gonna make the playoffs no matter what IMO. The composite talent on the sox plus the dearth of talent beyond the playoff teams from last year tells me there are 6 teams vying for 5 spots and the sox are still better than the Rays and A's (two teams where I think one of them is team #5). The pen will not cause you to not play beyond 162. But the WC game is a huge change from year's past. You can win 100 games and have a do or die game to go to the ALDS. We've gone 2-1 in that game since it was instituted, and the one loss just plain sucks. You go from being excited your team is in the POs to watching a single game, then the season ends. It blew. With how good the Yankees are on paper coming into this season and the sox leaving a critical piece of today's game completely exposed, there is a strong chance the pen experiment puts you in a play in game. If you're gonna spend to the max line, incur a penalty for last year and probably be forced to incur another this year, your team should do everything in its power to maximize the chances of avoiding a one and done scenario

 

You act like our starters go less innings than others, and when Kimmi points out we were 6th in innings by starters and that our current top 5 starters go 5.7, you don't respond.

 

You say we should do everything possible to maximize our chances. We've already spent way more than everyone else over the 2018-2019 season, so why not ask why the Yanks are not going all in, when you guys are the ones that are current underdogs and are well below the max penalty line.

[dgalehouse]

The bullpen probably has to cover three or four innings . We have gone from Kimbrel , Kelly , Barnes and Brasier to ( most likely ) Barnes , Brasier , Hembree and Thornburg .Basically , we are replacing Kimbrel and Kelly with Hembree and Thornburg . And sometimes we will be replacing Hembree with someone else . Is that a dropoff ? You decide .

[moonslav59]

The bullpen probably has to cover three or four innings . We have gone from Kimbrel , Kelly , Barnes and Brasier to ( most likely ) Barnes , Brasier , Hembree and Thornburg .Basically , we are replacing Kimbrel and Kelly with Hembree and Thornburg . And sometimes we will be replacing Hembree with someone else . Is that a dropoff ? You decide .

 

It's a drop off, but that doesn't mean it is weak pen.

 

If our starters stay healthy, we'll have Wright, Johnson and Velazquez to eat multiple innings each appearance and maybe minimize the need for Thornburg, Workman and Hembree to pitch as much as Barnes and Brasier needed to pitch last year.

 

We have lots of "ifs", no doubt, but so does every team, including the Yanks.

[Bellhorn04]

The bullpen probably has to cover three or four innings . We have gone from Kimbrel , Kelly , Barnes and Brasier to ( most likely ) Barnes , Brasier , Hembree and Thornburg .Basically , we are replacing Kimbrel and Kelly with Hembree and Thornburg . And sometimes we will be replacing Hembree with someone else . Is that a dropoff ? You decide .

 

Replacing Joe Kelly's 4.39 ERA is not such a big deal, is it? I thought you were an ERA guy.

[dgalehouse]

Replacing Joe Kelly's 4.39 ERA is not such a big deal, is it? I thought you were an ERA guy.

 

His career ERA is 3.87 . Consistency has been his problem. He seemed to figure things out toward the end . I have never been as high on Kelly as some have , or as low . I see him as a useful part of the bullpen .

[moonslav59]

His career ERA is 3.87 . Consistency has been his problem. He seemed to figure things out toward the end . I have never been as high on Kelly as some have , or as low . I see him as a useful part of the bullpen .

 

He is and was a useful part, but not someone who is all that hard to replace.

 

We have a lot of iffy pitchers that could have a better year than 3.87 or 4.39.

 

Thornburg might offer the best hope.

 

A whole year from Brasier could help, if he can repeat 2018 or even come close for the full season, we'd see a big gain there.

 

Barnes really came into his own last year. Can he take a step back? Of course, but so can Kimbrel, Ottavino and Britton.

 

Hembree and Workman are probably long shots, but if you go by your stat, ERA, there's a good chance at least one can come in between 3.90 and 4.40. Hembree's career ERA is better than Kelly's (3.46), and his 4.20 ERA in 2018 was better than Kelly's. He also did well in the playoffs. in the 81 IP Workman has gone over the last 2 years, his ERA is 3.22. His 4.38 career ERA was better than Kelly's 2018 ERA. These numbers show some hope.

 

Velazquez had a 3.18 ERA last year in a pretty large sample size of 85 IP, and Johnson's was 4.17 in 99 IP)- both better than Kelly's 2018 ERA. If just one can repeat or improve, we'll have someone (or two) who can pitch 2 innings at a time every few games.

 

Wright's injury is a big question, but his numbers blow away Kelly. His 3.69 ERA from 2016-2018 was brought down by his 2017 partial season plagued with injuries, but he's a good hope, if he stays healthy.

 

Carson Smith, Poyner, Lakins, Walden, Feltman and our resent signees all offer long shot hopes, but the sheer number of hopeful pitchers increases the odds that just the 2-3 we need can come through. Of course, the big risk is we burn a few games finding the best 2-3, and finish in second place by a game or two. Certainly, that's a risk. That being said, I like our top 8-9 RP'ers enough to think we will not need to spend a long time going through our options to find the best 7.

 

Most teams use 9-11 RP'er pretty significantly.Last year, we had 8 guys with 33+ IP and 12 guys with over 20 IP. Kelly led all RP'ers in IP with 65.2.Here's the list: (RED= no longer with the Sox)

 

65.2 Kelly 4.39

62.1 C K 2.74

61.2 Barnes 3.65

60.0 Hembree 4.20

54.2 Velazquez 2.63 (Maybe he can add 30-40 IP in relief.)

41.1 Workman 3.27 (Maybe he can add 10-25 IP.)

38.2 Johnson 4.19 (If he doesn't have to start much, he could add 35-50 more relief IP.)

33.2 Brasier 1.60 (He's the big wild card. He could suck, of he could gives us 30 more IP.)

29.2 Wright 1.52 (Another wild card with huge upside potential to add IP and help.)

24.0 Thornburg 5.63 (More huge upside potential)

22.2 Pomeranz 5.56 (Addition by subtraction/ his numbers help offset the good numbers lost.)

15.0 Cuevas 7.20 (More addition by subtraction)

14.1 C Smith 3.77 (A long shot hope & prayer)

7.2 Haley 4.70

6.2 Scott 8.10

2.1 J Beeks 11.57

(ERod 6.1/4.26 & Eovaldi 3.2/ 4.91)

 

Total numbers for RP'ers who are no longer with us:

 

ER/IP

32/65.2 Kelly

19/62.1 Kimbrel

14/22.2 Pomeranz (RP only)

12/15.0 Cuevas

4/ 7.2 Haley

6/ 6.2 Scott

3/ 2.1 Beeks (RP only)

90/182.1

 

4.47 ERA Total

 

Take away Kimbrel's numbers:

71 ER in 120 IP (That's a lot of IP to be improved upon!)

 

5.33 TOTAL

 

Replacing Kimbrel is not going to be easy. Replacing the others should not be hard at all.

[cp176]

Like i said, if you are really looking for a weakness on our team, it is likely that you might say it is the bullpen. Sadly for our opponents though, the rest of the team is just so damn good, that you do in fact have to search for weak areas to talk about. Losing Joe Kelly I think amounts to not much of any significance. Not having Kimbrel out there does affect us.

[oldtimer]

Like i said, if you are really looking for a weakness on our team, it is likely that you might say it is the bullpen. Sadly for our opponents though, the rest of the team is just so damn good, that you do in fact have to search for weak areas to talk about. Losing Joe Kelly I think amounts to not much of any significance. Not having Kimbrel out there does affect us.

 

Some of our compadres on this site use long term performance to justify decisions for the on going team. I am reluctant to do that with players who appear to be breaking out of their long term performance mold. Kelly did look to improve last season toward the end and may well have found something. Bogaert's hitting really was better in 2018, presumably because he took to heart to swing at good pitches earlier in the count and to try to drive the ball. Using long term statistics to justify decisions about Wright or Pedey are no more than a guess and are probably not close to reality. I'm not worried, as I think the Sox front office is aware of the likely performance of guys and will usually make good decisions. Like you, I believe the loss of Kimbrel, without a suitable replacement will impact the team's performance. But like Kimmi, I would be reluctant to pay big bucks and more reluctant to get into long term deals for closers.

[Bellhorn04]

Joe Kelly's ERA by months last year:

 

Apr 3.09

May 0.63

June 8.31

July 8.38

Aug 1.42

Sept 8.31

Playoffs 0.79

 

Now that's erratic.