A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[notin]

They might be a strength when you factor in their actual cost and control years, though, and when you factor in the cost of upgrading.

 

 

Well, Vazquez has 3 years of control left. But not Leon, who is arguably the better defender. Swihart has several years left, but no one wants to see him behind the plate.

 

How much would it cost to replace them with equal players? The cost of glove-first catchers isn’t usually prohibitive...

[Bellhorn04]

Well, Vazquez has 3 years of control left. But not Leon, who is arguably the better defender. Swihart has several years left, but no one wants to see him behind the plate.

 

How much would it cost to replace them with equal players? The cost of glove-first catchers isn’t usually prohibitive...

 

But what would be the point of replacing them with equal players?

[moonslav59]

Like always the consideration is to fill weak spots by spending capital. Sometimes the capital runs out faster than others, and sometimes there isn't enough capital to fill all of the holes. IN baseball the capital is picks, international money, free agent money, ML prospects, and big club players. The sox this year have 1 or 2 more holes, but are basically out of capital. They have a few replacement level or slightly above replacement level SP's, 3 slightly above average C's, and potentially 1 extra utility infielder, with a weakness(not necessarily a hole) at 2nd. THey should probably try to deal from their modest surpluses to get at least a potential closer if at all possible, but that leaves very little depth....

 

You make some good points, but Swihart is no where near an above average catcher. It's hard enough convincing people that the intangibles Leon and Vaz bring to their game makes them a net plus.

[kenmeister]

Are you really sure they’re among the best game-callers in the game? Are they better or worse than Austin Hedges, Yasmani Grandal, Marti Maldonado, Tyler Flowers, Mike Zunino, and Buster Posey?

 

 

Those are some FANTASTIC baseball names btw. Yasmani Grandal is one of my all-time favorite sounding names, and Tyler Flowers has a neat ring to it as well. We should sign Austin Hedges and Tyler Flowers and have a nice floral arrangement of catchers.

[cp176]

I couldn't care less about the cliff. This team is set to be very good by having a lot of young core talent. The ownership can clearly afford to make clear eyed decisions on them. If they suddenly turn into the Oakland A's, they will deserve all the derision they get. Now I don't think that will happen.

 

!!!!!! - Good

[cp176]

I think they are special.

 

Does that make up for me not thinking our farm is special?

 

LOL

 

yes - It absolutely does Moon - work with me here!

[moonslav59]

On our catchers...

 

Some 2018 numbers:

 

Framing Runs

7. Leon 11.6 in 4,892 chances

12. Vaz 9.0 in 4670 chances

(Both with less chances than many on the list)

40. Swihart 0.7 in 1209 chances

 

Framing + Blocking + Throwing

7. Leon +11.1

14. Vaz +9.0

 

out of 117 catchers listed.

 

How about 2017?

111 catchers on the list

6. Vaz +19.6

10. Leon +10.7

 

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1899536

 

These numbers don't reflect staff handling that includes pitch-calling and building confidence and comfort.

Edited January 28, 2019 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Stat Corner has this for 2018's top 32 catchers by pitches caught:

 

+ Calls per 9 innings

1. Stassi 0.99

2. Grandal 0.95

3. S Leon 0.89

4. Flowers 0.55

5. Martin 0.52

6. Hedges 0.51

7. Sanchez0.35

8. Zunino 0.29

9. Vazquez 0.17

 

[Michigan adam]

You make some good points, but Swihart is no where near an above average catcher. It's hard enough convincing people that the intangibles Leon and Vaz bring to their game makes them a net plus.

Certainly an arguable point. When you factor in Offense, defense, salary, and potential none of them are terrible, but none are awesome either. The good thing is their pay is about right to match their abilities.

[moonslav59]

Certainly an arguable point. When you factor in Offense, defense, salary, and potential none of them are terrible, but none are awesome either. The good thing is their pay is about right to match their abilities.

 

I actually think our catchers are a major factor in our success. The catcher position may be the most valuable position per dollar on the team.

 

I realize, I'm probably in the minority on thinking how a catcher's relationship with the staff is extremely important. It is also hard to measure, and for a stat guy like me to hold a position like this, I realize I'm opening myself up for criticism.

 

I know other catchers are as good as our two in these areas, but there would be a learning curve, if we made a change, and I'm not sure we can afford to wait out a learning curve period. Every game counts.

 

To think 3-4 offensive PAs by our catcher in any game is more important than the 30-40 PAs our catcher helps try to make an out from behind the plate is missing the big picture (not that you are missing anything).

 

 

[cp176]

I actually think our catchers are a major factor in our success. The catcher position may be the most valuable position per dollar on the team.

 

I realize, I'm probably in the minority on thinking how a catcher's relationship with the staff is extremely important. It is also hard to measure, and for a stat guy like me to hold a position like this, I realize I'm opening myself up for criticism.

 

I know other catchers are as good as our two in these areas, but there would be a learning curve, if we made a change, and I'm not sure we can afford to wait out a learning curve period. Every game counts.

 

To think 3-4 offensive PAs by our catcher in any game is more important than the 30-40 PAs our catcher helps try to make an out from behind the plate is missing the big picture (not that you are missing anything).

 

 

 

Moon - Do you really think that anyone who knows the game does not understand the importance of pitcher catcher relationships? this is usually the spot where someone jumps in and acts like they and they alone value the catching position more than anyone else - laughable. We all know how important it is. It is just that some of us, even though we understand that we have two competent catchers, do not think that they are particularly special at what they do. they are good catchers - nice.

[Bellhorn04]

I actually think our catchers are a major factor in our success. The catcher position may be the most valuable position per dollar on the team.

 

I realize, I'm probably in the minority on thinking how a catcher's relationship with the staff is extremely important. It is also hard to measure, and for a stat guy like me to hold a position like this, I realize I'm opening myself up for criticism.

 

I know other catchers are as good as our two in these areas, but there would be a learning curve, if we made a change, and I'm not sure we can afford to wait out a learning curve period. Every game counts.

 

To think 3-4 offensive PAs by our catcher in any game is more important than the 30-40 PAs our catcher helps try to make an out from behind the plate is missing the big picture (not that you are missing anything).

 

 

I'm largely in agreement with you about the catcher position. I don't even give it much thought, because it's just not a problem area that anything needs to be done about.

[moonslav59]

Moon - Do you really think that anyone who knows the game does not understand the importance of pitcher catcher relationships? this is usually the spot where someone jumps in and acts like they and they alone value the catching position more than anyone else - laughable. We all know how important it is. It is just that some of us, even though we understand that we have two competent catchers, do not think that they are particularly special at what they do. they are good catchers - nice.

 

I didn't mean to sound condescending, but there has been some talk of trading Vaz or Leon and letting Swihart catch a good percentage of the games. To me, that is a sign that some may not value that "relationship" as much as we do.

 

They are top 10 out of 50-60 on defense + Pitcher handling.

 

They are (combined) maybe bottom 10 or 15 on offense.

 

The defense is connected to 30-45 PAs a game, while the offense is to 3-5. I know many here "get it." I'm not trying to sound smarter than anyone else, but in my opinion, our catchers are a solid plus and maybe even "special."

 

I know Leon is "special" to Sale, and anyone special to

 

Chris Freakin' Sale

 

is special to me.

[notin]

But what would be the point of replacing them with equal players?

 

That’s more a question you should be andwering, as you brought up their salary and control as reasons why they are strengths...

[Nick]

First of all, our catching situation is fine in the context of we don't need any offense from that position.

 

But all of you are STUPID thinking somehow Leon and Vazquez are some magicians behind the plate.

 

Both Sale and Price were elite pitchers BEFORE they came to Boston. Who caught them? Certainly not Leon and Vazquez.

 

Some of you make Sandy out to be the greatest defensive catcher in this century. You're joke if you think that.

 

We don't need to fix our catching position because we are very strong at other positions.

 

Move on.

[Bellhorn04]

That’s more a question you should be andwering, as you brought up their salary and control as reasons why they are strengths...

 

And you're the one who said the Sox could upgrade there. You've indicated on several occasions that you're interested in upgrading there, I think.

 

The question is how much of a priority is it to upgrade there given the overall strength of the team and our 'capital constraints'.

 

I can't see it as much of a priority at all for 2019. Maybe in 2020 or 2021 it would make more sense as other things change.

 

I think the main point of interest right now at the position is whether DD going to trade one of them.

[oldtimer]

Moon - Do you really think that anyone who knows the game does not understand the importance of pitcher catcher relationships? this is usually the spot where someone jumps in and acts like they and they alone value the catching position more than anyone else - laughable. We all know how important it is. It is just that some of us, even though we understand that we have two competent catchers, do not think that they are particularly special at what they do. they are good catchers - nice.

 

Also, no burn is given to the possibility of improvement, which the sox are saying Swihart has made in the past year. Moon tends to look at long term numbers, which undervalues those who are improving. It looks to me as though we have 3 competent catchers on the roster and have to decide who sticks based on hitting and trade value. Leon has little of that because he doesn't hit, while its up in the air for Swihart and Vaz possibly will show better hitting. The plan may be to go through spring training with 3 and see which 2 we want to keep.

[Bellhorn04]

First of all, our catching situation is fine in the context of we don't need any offense from that position.

 

But all of you are STUPID thinking somehow Leon and Vazquez are some magicians behind the plate.

 

Both Sale and Price were elite pitchers BEFORE they came to Boston. Who caught them? Certainly not Leon and Vazquez.

 

That's true, but guess which catcher Sale has the best numbers with over his career?

 

Yep, it's Sandy Leon, and it isn't close. With a miniscule .561 OPSa and a monstrous K/BB of 7.76.

 

I'm with moon on this one.

[Bellhorn04]

The great two-way catcher is a rare commodity.

 

And when you have a catcher who can really hit, you can't help thinking maybe you should move them to first base so you can save their legs.

 

I can remember a time some Sox fans were salivating at the prospect of prying Joe Mauer from the Twins.

 

But the Twins locked up their hometown guy for 8/184, and it didn't pay off so well for them.

[Michigan adam]

Again. It is smart to trade from a position of strength, or rather excess, to a position of need. THe Sox don't have many excesses, but Catcher, utility infield and 6-8th pitcher are a few of them. Are they huge chips many others want...no. But is you could do a swihart vasquez type 2 for 1 for a competent RP, and "dump" a nunez for almost nothing but salary relief and then bring back kimbrel for a 1 or 2 year last man standing type deal wouldn't that be a good idea? Would make them use replacement level players in case of injuries, but to start the year with such a big hole in concerning to me. Here's to hoping kimbrel has no seat to sit in and will take what we can free up to offer. I doubt we can do better with the capital we have left.

[notin]

And you're the one who said the Sox could upgrade there. You've indicated on several occasions that you're interested in upgrading there, I think.

 

The question is how much of a priority is it to upgrade there given the overall strength of the team and our 'capital constraints'.

 

I can't see it as much of a priority at all for 2019. Maybe in 2020 or 2021 it would make more sense as other things change.

 

I think the main point of interest right now at the position is whether DD going to trade one of them.

 

Yes I have.

 

Although a lot of that was before a lot of the team’s budget became more public. Back when we all assumed “Hey we signed Pearce. Certainly that means we won’t be so limited when it comes to spending on the bullpen.” I thought maybe DD wanted to see if Grandal or Ramos become this off-season’s Moustakas. (And maybe he was doing just that.)

 

Now we have about $8mill AAV tied up in 3 catchers and we likely can’t fit them all on the roster. DD has said he will trade one. Well as we still need bullpen help, the trick is finding a reasonable match, not just assuming this means dealing Swihart for a 25yo A-Ball bench bat, which doesn’t help the bullpen and barely frees up any money.

 

I think Leon, offensive hole that he is, makes the most sense to keep as thevstarter. Vazquez might be the better hitter, but not much better, and his comparable but maybe slightly worse defense really doesn’t justify his higher AAV. I think that makes him expendable, although who he could be dealt for is a bit of a mystery. The best match I have found all things considered is Fernando Rodney, of whom I am not a fan. Although certainly DD has been one at one point...

[moonslav59]

First of all, our catching situation is fine in the context of we don't need any offense from that position.

 

But all of you are STUPID thinking somehow Leon and Vazquez are some magicians behind the plate.

 

Both Sale and Price were elite pitchers BEFORE they came to Boston. Who caught them? Certainly not Leon and Vazquez.

 

Some of you make Sandy out to be the greatest defensive catcher in this century. You're joke if you think that.

 

We don't need to fix our catching position because we are very strong at other positions.

 

Move on.

 

I've been a big supporter of Leon and Vaz, but I have never come near saying they are the best defensively. I have often acknowledged there are better catcher while warning of a possible learning curve, if we made a switch.

 

I'd say Leon & Vaz are top 10 or 15 out of 60 catchers on defense (individually & combined) and bottom 10-15 on offense (combined).

 

Of course there are catchers out there that can do what they do on defense AND hit better or much better, but it's not realistic to think we should spend our limited resources trying to upgrade the catcher position, when who we got work fine as is and are a net plus overall.

 

Yes, Sale was great before coming here, and putting up a 2.51 ERA with AJ Pierzynski supports your point, but the guy he has had the most PAs against with is Tyler Flowers. Here's a look at the CERAs:

 

2.42 Leon (319 PAs)

2.51 AJ P (226)

2.98 Navarr0 (just 97)

3.02 Flowers (552)

3.36 Phegley (just 88)

3.40 Vaz (just 53)

3.53 Avila (112)

4.08 Navarez (just 18)

 

David Price is clearly had to re-invent himself, so I'm not sure it's fair to compare his numbers with TB vs BOS. I know it sound contradictory to say the catcher makes a huge difference, then selectively negate the theory when it suits my position, but I think I have a good reason.

 

Price also had one of the greatest defensive catchers of all time, Jose Molina. for the plurality of his PAs against, yet Leon still matched Molina and beat almost everyone else who had over 500 PAs with him. Here's his numbers:

 

2.83 SLeon (769)

2.85 JMolina (1878 PAs)

3.06 JJaso (778)

3.09 Navarro (542)

3.61 Shoppach (675)

4.32 Vazquez (1113)

(Avila, McCann & Martin all got sub 3.00 with Price with between 296 and 451 PAs with him)

 

I'd be thrilled, if we found a catcher like Leon who could hit, but unless we draft one, we can't afford to buy or trade for one, right now.

 

I view Vaz/Leon as a clear net plus, but they certainly are not great or top 5 or 10 in overall value out of the 60 catchers who see the most time behind the plate.

 

[moonslav59]

Also, no burn is given to the possibility of improvement, which the sox are saying Swihart has made in the past year. Moon tends to look at long term numbers, which undervalues those who are improving. It looks to me as though we have 3 competent catchers on the roster and have to decide who sticks based on hitting and trade value. Leon has little of that because he doesn't hit, while its up in the air for Swihart and Vaz possibly will show better hitting. The plan may be to go through spring training with 3 and see which 2 we want to keep.

 

I don't think catcher offense or projected catcher offense improvement will be the deciding factor on who to keep.

 

I do think Vaz and Swihart have a much better chance of being decent hitters than Leon, but to me, Leon's numbers with Sale & Price are just too good to mess with this year.

 

To me, Vaz is clearly better than Swihart, so my choice is made. The only reason I'd trade Vaz is to free up budget space for a better RP'er, but even then, I don't want Leon catching more than he did last year, and I don't want Swihart catching much at all.

[moonslav59]

Yes I have.

 

Although a lot of that was before a lot of the team’s budget became more public. Back when we all assumed “Hey we signed Pearce. Certainly that means we won’t be so limited when it comes to spending on the bullpen.” I thought maybe DD wanted to see if Grandal or Ramos become this off-season’s Moustakas. (And maybe he was doing just that.)

 

Now we have about $8mill AAV tied up in 3 catchers and we likely can’t fit them all on the roster. DD has said he will trade one. Well as we still need bullpen help, the trick is finding a reasonable match, not just assuming this means dealing Swihart for a 25yo A-Ball bench bat, which doesn’t help the bullpen and barely frees up any money.

 

I think Leon, offensive hole that he is, makes the most sense to keep as thevstarter. Vazquez might be the better hitter, but not much better, and his comparable but maybe slightly worse defense really doesn’t justify his higher AAV. I think that makes him expendable, although who he could be dealt for is a bit of a mystery. The best match I have found all things considered is Fernando Rodney, of whom I am not a fan. Although certainly DD has been one at one point...

 

Do you think Leon can catch over 120 games effectively?

 

If Yes, are you okay with Swihart catching 30-40 games a year? (He does okay with ERod, but who else would he catch?)

 

If no, how about Swihart catching 50-70 games this year? (IMO, "YUCK! comes to mind very quickly!)

[moonslav59]

That's true, but guess which catcher Sale has the best numbers with over his career?

 

Yep, it's Sandy Leon, and it isn't close. With a miniscule .561 OPSa and a monstrous K/BB of 7.76.

 

I'm with moon on this one.

 

I used CERA, but OPS against is probably a better indicator. It was closer on CERA. Here's OPS against:

 

Sale

 

.561 Leon (1250 PAs)

.616 Flowers (2227)

.622 AJ P (896)

.680 Avila (449)

 

Price

.599 Avila (451 PAs)

.616 J Jaso (778)

.634 Molina (1878)

.636 SLeon (718)

.661 Navvaro (468)

.691 McCann (433)

.705 Shoppach (675)

.735 Vazquez (1113, mostly due to that one "off year")

 

 

[notin]

Do you think Leon can catch over 120 games effectively?

 

If Yes, are you okay with Swihart catching 30-40 games a year? (He does okay with ERod, but who else would he catch?)

 

If no, how about Swihart catching 50-70 games this year? (IMO, "YUCK! comes to mind very quickly!)

 

There have been plenty of people who think Tzu-Wei Lin needs more playing time and JD Martinez is a good option for fourth outfielder and this is OK. But Swihart get 30 starts behind the plate? That’s a white flag!!!

 

Blake is not winning a Gold Glove back there, but he isn’t completely lost either. And for some reason, Dombrowski is mildly infatuated with him, not only trying him in the outfield for no reason, but also releasing Hanley just to keep him. On some level, one has to think DD wants him to get a shot.

 

He does have a very good arm, which certainly helps. But he does also need some playing time to get better behind the plate. And he also has the most offensive potential of any of the Sox catchers...

Edited January 29, 2019 by notin

[moonslav59]

There have been plenty of people who think Tzu-Wei Lin needs more playing time and JD Martinez is a good option for fourth outfielder and this is OK. But Swihart get 30 starts behind the plate? That’s a white flag!!!

 

Blake is not winning a Gold Glove back there, but he isn’t completely lost either. And for some reason, Dombrowski is Gascony him, not only trying him in the outfield for no reason, but also releasing Hanley just to keep him. On some level, one has to think DD wants him to get a shot.

 

He does have a very good arm, which certainly helps. But he does also need some playing time to get better behind the plate. And he also has the most offensive potential of any of the Sox catchers...

 

Getting rid of HanRam had nothing to do with Swihart. IMO. It was clearly about the budget, as we can see now how much spending is available this winter.

 

Trading Vaz or Leon almost certainly means Swihart catches more than 30 games, unless you think we bring up Centano and either keep Swihart or trade him, too.

 

In my view, trading Vaz or leon raises the white flag of Swihart catching too much.

[notin]

Getting rid of HanRam had nothing to do with Swihart. IMO. It was clearly about the budget, as we can see now how much spending is available this winter.

 

Trading Vaz or Leon almost certainly means Swihart catches more than 30 games, unless you think we bring up Centano and either keep Swihart or trade him, too.

 

In my view, trading Vaz or leon raises the white flag of Swihart catching too much.

 

Getting rid of HanRam was certainly impacted by his pending vesting option, but it was not completely independent of Swihart. Remember in the days before, DD was actively shopping Swihart in order to clear roster space for Pedroia. Reportedly one of the reasons no deal for Swihart could be found was the anticipation he would be DFAd anyway. But the DD crossed up the world and released Hanley...

[moonslav59]

Getting rid of HanRam was certainly impacted by his pending vesting option, but it was not completely independent of Swihart. Remember in the days before, DD was actively shopping Swihart in order to clear roster space for Pedroia. Reportedly one of the reasons no deal for Swihart could be found was the anticipation he would be DFAd anyway. But the DD crossed up the world and released Hanley...

 

But, it did show a willingness to release Swihart.

 

I think the main reason Swihart is still around is that the state of catching in MLB is just so damn poor. He has shown flashes of hope here and there, and maybe they hoped he'd build value by doing well after HRam was cut. It didn't really happen, but he hasn't really lost value either.

 

My guess is we either trade Swihart as a small part of a package for RP'er, or we keep him until we know about Pedey.

 

[kenmeister]

But, it did show a willingness to release Swihart.

 

I think the main reason Swihart is still around is that the state of catching in MLB is just so damn poor. He has shown flashes of hope here and there, and maybe they hoped he'd build value by doing well after HRam was cut. It didn't really happen, but he hasn't really lost value either.

 

My guess is we either trade Swihart as a small part of a package for RP'er, or we keep him until we know about Pedey.

 

 

I hope Pedroia either goes back to hitting .290 or is unable to play. It will be a tougher situation if he hits .250 with little power but is capable of playing every day.