A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[harmony]

Yes, and I'm sure they'd love to add a decent starter to that list, knowing one or two are likely to fail, get hurt or under perform.

Do the Red Sox have a "decent" spare starter who would be an upgrade over Ariel Jurado, Yolander Mendez, Luke Farrell and Adrian Sampson?

[Slasher9]

hard pass on kimbrel.

thanks for your time here. good luck at your next landing spot.

[notin]

Then trade Porcello and sign Kimbrel, or trade Porcello for a solid closer. Is that a better area to "economize?" How about trading Bogey or JD?

 

My guess is, if we were missing one of those guys, you'd be saying we can't afford to economize at SP'er, SS or clean-up hitter...

 

 

The funny part is how it’s sarcastically directed at the people on this board, as if any of us have any say.

 

If the failure of the Sox in 2019 is due to the backend of the bullpen, that responsibility rests 100% with Dombrowski and his decision to spend more heavily on a backup 1b to handle the weak side of a platoon as opposed to replacing departed relievers...

[Bellhorn04]

As slow as this offseason is, we have found stuff to argue about. I think we are to be commended.

[notin]

Do the Red Sox have a "decent" spare starter who would be an upgrade over Ariel Jurado, Yolander Mendez, Luke Farrell and Adrian Sampson?

 

Short answer: Yes

 

Long answer: Yes, we do...

[harmony]

Short answer: Yes

 

Long answer: Yes, we do...

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer600&team=3&lg=all&players=0&sort=19,d

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer600&team=13&lg=all&players=0&sort=19,d

 

The Red Sox have a strong starting rotation on paper but the dropoff is steep after the top five.

Edited January 24, 2019 by harmony

[sk7326]

FWIW, the Seattle Mariners have four prospects in Baseball America's Top 100.

 

The Mariners had zero before the Paxton and Diaz sell-offs

[harmony]

The Mariners had zero before the Paxton and Diaz sell-offs

Seattle outfield prospect Kyle Lewis was Baseball America's 67th-ranked prospect a year ago but fell off this year's list.

 

So the Mariners had one BA-ranked prospect before the James Paxton and Edwin Diaz trades, which added only two of the four current prospects on Baseball America's Top 100 list.

 

The Diaz trade netted another prospect Baseball America listed among the "next ten" this year after ranking him No. 100 two years ago.

 

In summary, the Mariners have four current prospects on the Baseball America Top 100 and two other prospects who were previously ranked (including Lewis as high as No. 34 in 2017).

 

Of course Red Sox prospects Michael Chavis and Jay Groome have been previously ranked.

 

Nevertheless, farm systems are probably overrated.

Edited January 24, 2019 by harmony

[dgalehouse]

The funny part is how it’s sarcastically directed at the people on this board, as if any of us have any say.

 

If the failure of the Sox in 2019 is due to the backend of the bullpen, that responsibility rests 100% with Dombrowski and his decision to spend more heavily on a backup 1b to handle the weak side of a platoon as opposed to replacing departed relievers...

I am not sarcastically directing my comments at the people of this board . However, it is good of you to stand up for them. I have noted that we don't really have any say in the Sox decision making. But we all do have our opinions on what should be done. Just adding my two cents worth. It's not much , but probably better than " rifling through a pile of turds ."

[notin]

I am not sarcastically directing my comments at the people of this board . However, it is good of you to stand up for them. I have noted that we don't really have any say in the Sox decision making. But we all do have our opinions on what should be done. Just adding my two cents worth. It's not much , but probably better than " rifling through a pile of turds ."

 

 

I do think there are a few decent pitchers in there, but it’s going to come down to DD’s ability to find them and sign them cheaply...

[harmony]

I do think there are a few decent pitchers in there, but it’s going to come down to DD’s ability to find them and sign them cheaply...

Reliever Shawn Kelley is looking better and better each day:

 

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2019/01/boston-red-sox-in-active-discussions-with-relievers-per-source.html

 

As more relievers come off the board does the price for Kelley go up or down?

[Slasher9]

i think it's sad we dont have an all star/high priced player at every position. Sad!

the yankees did it in the 20th century. Make Baseball Great Again!

[Kimmi]

If the moves had to be made, then we didn't pay too much IMHO. If Price didn't get that deal from us he probably would have gotten it elsewhere.

 

I'm not so sure that Price would have gotten that deal elsewhere.

 

My understanding is that Dombrowski outbid the next closest team by $30 mil.

[Kimmi]

People say they are concerned about Kimbrel's effectiveness going forward . Then you see some of the jabronis that are being suggested as replacements . It makes no sense . Are you not concerned about them ? Let's face it . It is all about the money . The question is : Is this really the area in which to economize? We will find out soon enough.

 

The answer is most definitely yes.

[cp176]

As slow as this offseason is, we have found stuff to argue about. I think we are to be commended.

 

It's amazing isn't it.

[moonslav59]

The answer is most definitely yes.

 

I'm thinking the same thing.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not so sure that Price would have gotten that deal elsewhere.

 

My understanding is that Dombrowski outbid the next closest team by $30 mil.

 

I think it was pretty close to what MLBTR predicted he would get.

 

The previous year Scherzer got 7/210 (though some was deferred), and Lester got 6/155.

 

And within days of Price signing, Greinke got 6/206.5 for an AAV of 34.4, about 10% higher than Price's 31.

[kenmeister]

The only SP on the Sox that would interest them is Rodriguez. Sale and Porcello have one year left. Price and Eovaldi are too expensive for a rebuilding team. And Johnson isn’t very good.

 

I’d rather keep ERod....

 

If Dave makes the move to trade ERod and bring in Leclerc I'd understand it. But Wright better be ready to start the season!

[moonslav59]

If Dave makes the move to trade ERod and bring in Leclerc I'd understand it. But Wright better be ready to start the season!

 

ERod is our best hope beyond 2019. Plus, he's cheap.

[Bellhorn04]

ERod is our best hope beyond 2019. Plus, he's cheap.

 

You rate him over Price and Eovaldi in the hope department?

[Nick]

The answer is most definitely yes.

 

Yep

[jacksonianmarch]

You rate him over Price and Eovaldi in the hope department?

 

ERod, even with his injuries, has shown the ability to avoid the major injury (no elbow or shoulder red flags) and has proven to be a very good starting pitcher in the league. Eovaldi has had major injuries and has never proven to be even a good starting pitcher for a full season. He's all stuff and hype without the production. He's a SSS warrior who parlayed one month into a $68 mil contract

[Bellhorn04]

ERod, even with his injuries, has shown the ability to avoid the major injury (no elbow or shoulder red flags) and has proven to be a very good starting pitcher in the league. Eovaldi has had major injuries and has never proven to be even a good starting pitcher for a full season. He's all stuff and hype without the production. He's a SSS warrior who parlayed one month into a $68 mil contract

 

We'll see. Eovaldi is still pretty young, and they obviously have some faith he's a better pitcher now than he ever showed in pinstripes.

[notin]

You rate him over Price and Eovaldi in the hope department?

 

 

Not over Price. Eovaldi still carries a few question marks...

[moonslav59]

I was talking beyond 2019.

 

ERod has 2 arbs left after this year. Even if he ends up not being better than Price & Eovaldi in 2020 and 2021, his contractual cost tips the balance.

[kenmeister]

ERod is our best hope beyond 2019. Plus, he's cheap.

 

Yes absolutely. I would understand the move, but I'd vastly prefer to get Leclerc with lesser pieces

[jacksonianmarch]

I was talking beyond 2019.

 

ERod has 2 arbs left after this year. Even if he ends up not being better than Price & Eovaldi in 2020 and 2021, his contractual cost tips the balance.

 

ERod is going to control his own destiny. If he continues to start 25 or less games, then the sox wont want to pay for him due to durability concerns. If he becomes durable, then he will be too expensive to retain. I think ERod ends up in Boston for this year and next and is probably dealt in his final arb season as part of a tear down

[Bellhorn04]

I was talking beyond 2019.

 

ERod has 2 arbs left after this year. Even if he ends up not being better than Price & Eovaldi in 2020 and 2021, his contractual cost tips the balance.

 

So what you're saying is he's the best hope in the value department, then.

[moonslav59]

So what you're saying is he's the best hope in the value department, then.

 

He's the last guy I'd trade out of Price, Eovaldi and ERod.

 

I do think he has as good a chance as the others of doing the best from 2020-2021.

[Kimmi]

If Dave makes the move to trade ERod and bring in Leclerc I'd understand it. But Wright better be ready to start the season!

 

I am not a fan of weakening our rotation to strengthen our bullpen.