A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[moonslav59]

By one measure the Red Sox have the 28th-ranked farm system:

 

Wow!

 

The cliff deniers were right: our farm system is making a comeback.

 

On the way up, baby!

[notin]

Wow!

 

The cliff deniers were right: our farm system is making a comeback.

 

On the way up, baby!

 

 

Well,it couldn’t have gotten ranked any lower without league expansion...

[vegasbob]

I will venture a guess that Dombroski will hold onto all 3 catchers until at least mid ST to better see who among them is hitting anything, allow for possible injury caused reassessment both internally to Sox and externally throughout MLB to maximize the value. DFA, leading to a small trade and/or DL at end of ST may also be options.

 

As with Moncado and Harper , at the other end of the spectrum, it may take another 6-8 weeks to solve the Sox roster questions.

[sk7326]

Wow!

 

The cliff deniers were right: our farm system is making a comeback.

 

On the way up, baby!

 

Actually ... from Keith Law's chat ...

 

Jackie: For the record, I’m a huge Red Sox fan, and I’m OK with it if you hate our farm system. Looking pretty barren …

Keith Law: It’s weak, but not barren – they were as riddled with injuries as any system I can think of. Their recent drafts have been solid, and they have some big-time international FA prospects on the way. They could go 25 to 10 (I don’t have that finalized, this is just a general idea) in a year.

[moonslav59]

I will venture a guess that Dombroski will hold onto all 3 catchers until at least mid ST to better see who among them is hitting anything, allow for possible injury caused reassessment both internally to Sox and externally throughout MLB to maximize the value. DFA, leading to a small trade and/or DL at end of ST may also be options.

 

As with Moncado and Harper , at the other end of the spectrum, it may take another 6-8 weeks to solve the Sox roster questions.

 

You think Swihart going 6 for 15 in the beginning of ST'ing will win him the job?

 

Management knows what we got.

[moonslav59]

Actually ... from Keith Law's chat ...

 

I'll be shocked if he ranks us any higher than 25 this year and 18-20 next year.

 

As it pertains to the cliff, most of these guys will be far from the majors by 2020 and 2021, so the whole argument that the farm would miraculously rebuild itself in time to keep the cliff from happening is looking pretty lame, right now.

 

BTW, I've never said our farm was barren. Our main farm issue is the lack or ML ready or near ML ready difference makers.

 

We'll have Beni & Devers for a while, but when can we realistically expect the next Beni or Devers to arrive?

 

[sk7326]

I'll be shocked if he ranks us any higher than 25 this year and 18-20 next year.

 

As it pertains to the cliff, most of these guys will be far from the majors by 2020 and 2021, so the whole argument that the farm would miraculously rebuild itself in time to keep the cliff from happening is looking pretty lame, right now.

 

BTW, I've never said our farm was barren. Our main farm issue is the lack or ML ready or near ML ready difference makers.

 

We'll have Beni & Devers for a while, but when can we realistically expect the next Beni or Devers to arrive?

 

 

No team which has had the amazing fertility of our system the last few years has that sort of talent at the ready all the time ... it would be inefficient for everybody involved

[sk7326]

I'll be shocked if he ranks us any higher than 25 this year and 18-20 next year.

 

As it pertains to the cliff, most of these guys will be far from the majors by 2020 and 2021, so the whole argument that the farm would miraculously rebuild itself in time to keep the cliff from happening is looking pretty lame, right now.

 

BTW, I've never said our farm was barren. Our main farm issue is the lack or ML ready or near ML ready difference makers.

 

We'll have Beni & Devers for a while, but when can we realistically expect the next Beni or Devers to arrive?

 

 

Given the current issues with the CBA - I have serious doubts of the cliff condition every happening.

[moonslav59]

Given the current issues with the CBA - I have serious doubts of the cliff condition every happening.

 

The CBA is a major reason the cliff is so near.

[moonslav59]

Good read...

 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2019/01/23/tom-werner-defends-baseball-owners-spending-free-agents/B3z9Wgs2QRw4OSEW5Q6yxN/story.html

[sk7326]

The CBA is a major reason the cliff is so near.

 

It is up after 2021 ... the next CBA will make it easier to spend money because the current condition does not work for the players or the media partners frankly. Even if that means a significant increase in the minimum salaries. (which is quite overdue anyway)

 

Again - any system where a 26 year old superstar is not having a dozen team falling over themselves to sign him is one that needs fixing.

[sk7326]

Good read...

 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2019/01/23/tom-werner-defends-baseball-owners-spending-free-agents/B3z9Wgs2QRw4OSEW5Q6yxN/story.html

 

Owner happy owners are not spending money - stop the presses! Werner was a notorious cheapskate in San Diego - this is not revelatory.

[jacksonianmarch]

Given the current issues with the CBA - I have serious doubts of the cliff condition every happening.

 

The CBA concludes after the 2021 season. The sox are going to run into a major conundrum financially after 2019. It will be compounded when Jackie and Mookie hit FA after 2020. You're 2 years too early in terms of window for the CBA to help you

[sk7326]

The CBA concludes after the 2021 season. The sox are going to run into a major conundrum financially after 2019. It will be compounded when Jackie and Mookie hit FA after 2020. You're 2 years too early in terms of window for the CBA to help you

 

It will help to the degree that currently the conditions which infect Machado/Harper will still infect Betts, who'll be two years older when he hits UFA status. If a dozen teams are not falling over themselves to sign 26 year old superstars, I don't know what to tell you. It's a deeply flawed system. Bradley I worry about less - I can see the Red Sox not getting into a bidding war there.

[jacksonianmarch]

Betts is the superior player to Harper and Machado. He wont see the length Machado and Harper will eventually get, but he should beat their AAV

[jacksonianmarch]

It will help to the degree that currently the conditions which infect Machado/Harper will still infect Betts, who'll be two years older when he hits UFA status. If a dozen teams are not falling over themselves to sign 26 year old superstars, I don't know what to tell you. It's a deeply flawed system. Bradley I worry about less - I can see the Red Sox not getting into a bidding war there.

 

But the other thing is, losing Sale, Porcello, Xander or JDM radically alters the setup of your squad. My guess is you re-up Xander and let the others fly away. That team would be vastly inferior to the one that took home the title in 2018 and the one taking the field this year

[sk7326]

But the other thing is, losing Sale, Porcello, Xander or JDM radically alters the setup of your squad. My guess is you re-up Xander and let the others fly away. That team would be vastly inferior to the one that took home the title in 2018 and the one taking the field this year

 

I don't know. We'll see. Henry has tried pretty hard to put a winner out there. I don't see a ton of reasons that it won't continue to some degree or another.

[moonslav59]

It is up after 2021 ... the next CBA will make it easier to spend money because the current condition does not work for the players or the media partners frankly. Even if that means a significant increase in the minimum salaries. (which is quite overdue anyway)

 

Again - any system where a 26 year old superstar is not having a dozen team falling over themselves to sign him is one that needs fixing.

 

You are assuming a lot, and the cliff will happen in 2020 or 2021, so again, how is the new CBA that comes after 2021 going to help us avoid the cliff?

 

It may shorten it, if it strips away the luxury tax or sets the limit at $280M.

[moonslav59]

I don't know. We'll see. Henry has tried pretty hard to put a winner out there. I don't see a ton of reasons that it won't continue to some degree or another.

 

Henry was also the owner in 2012, 2014 and 2015. Those years, the teams were not bad on paper, but we finished last 3 out of 4 years.

 

I'm not saying we'll finish in last the year we reset, but we won't be competitive...let alone highly competitive.

[dgalehouse]

I think we are becoming extremely obsessive in our concern over the cliff , the reset , the farm , the luxury tax , hanging on to some rather marginal players , possible changes in the CBA , etc . Who knows what the future will bring? Need to give it a rest . Maybe that is what happens in a slow hot stove league . I say , fix the bullpen and get started on defending the title . If John Henry wants to spend the money , good . If he doesn't, good . Enjoy the coming season . But if you get more enjoyment from the other stuff , so be it .

[moonslav59]

I think we are becoming extremely obsessive in our concern over the cliff , the reset , the farm , the luxury tax , hanging on to some rather marginal players , possible changes in the CBA , etc . Who knows what the future will bring? Need to give it a rest . Maybe that is what happens in a slow hot stove league . I say , fix the bullpen and get started on defending the title . If John Henry wants to spend the money , good . If he doesn't, good . Enjoy the coming season . But if you get more enjoyment from the other stuff , so be it .

 

I'll stop talking cliff for a while, if you stop talking pen woes.

 

Deal?

[jacksonianmarch]

The pen being fixed by trade will only deepen the cliff. Let’s say you move Chavis to find a pen arm, then who takes over 1b on the cheap for 2020? Maybe Dalbec? Maybe Ockimey? Chavis is your best option for cheap production.

 

I do see a reset coming. I think the Sox re-up Bogaerts and put all efforts into re-signing Betts and rolling with them as the center of a strategic rebuild. The problem for DD will be to find veterans on the cheap to replace expensive all stars and that is the riskiest of propositions. Heck, the Yanks had the benefit of a single rebuild year where we dealt off good players for talent that turned into Torres and Paxton whilst not shedding talent like Sevy, Judge, Sanchez, Andujar, etc. I doubt the Sox have that as I feel the Sox will be a playoff team this year. With them being way over the cap, though, they won’t get the draft benefit that they’d enjoyed in the past. They’ll offer QO’s to Sale, Porcello, and JDM, but all of those guys will move on and the Sox will get 3 fourth round picks. Nothing to sneeze at, but nothing like the years where the Sox would get a first and a supp or even just a supplemental pick

[Kimmi]

Cora selected Vazquez as his main man at a point in the postseason, so that certainly means something.

 

Exactly. I can't remember specifically what was said about giving Vazquez the nod in the postseason, but IIRC, it was something they really liked about his pitch calling and his openness to changing things up.

[Kimmi]

E6 Derek Jeter.

 

Cut Jeter some slack. He’s trying to build the Marlins and the Yankees at once...

 

Well played, on both parts.

[Kimmi]

I think we are becoming extremely obsessive in our concern over the cliff , the reset , the farm , the luxury tax , hanging on to some rather marginal players , possible changes in the CBA , etc . Who knows what the future will bring? Need to give it a rest . Maybe that is what happens in a slow hot stove league . I say , fix the bullpen and get started on defending the title . If John Henry wants to spend the money , good . If he doesn't, good . Enjoy the coming season . But if you get more enjoyment from the other stuff , so be it .

 

Are those two things mutually exclusive?

[Kimmi]

The pen being fixed by trade will only deepen the cliff. Let’s say you move Chavis to find a pen arm, then who takes over 1b on the cheap for 2020? Maybe Dalbec? Maybe Ockimey? Chavis is your best option for cheap production.

 

I do see a reset coming. I think the Sox re-up Bogaerts and put all efforts into re-signing Betts and rolling with them as the center of a strategic rebuild. The problem for DD will be to find veterans on the cheap to replace expensive all stars and that is the riskiest of propositions. Heck, the Yanks had the benefit of a single rebuild year where we dealt off good players for talent that turned into Torres and Paxton whilst not shedding talent like Sevy, Judge, Sanchez, Andujar, etc. I doubt the Sox have that as I feel the Sox will be a playoff team this year. With them being way over the cap, though, they won’t get the draft benefit that they’d enjoyed in the past. They’ll offer QO’s to Sale, Porcello, and JDM, but all of those guys will move on and the Sox will get 3 fourth round picks. Nothing to sneeze at, but nothing like the years where the Sox would get a first and a supp or even just a supplemental pick

 

I will say this.

 

The way that Jacko talks about our cliff coming almost makes me believe that it is not coming.

[cp176]

I think we are becoming extremely obsessive in our concern over the cliff , the reset , the farm , the luxury tax , hanging on to some rather marginal players , possible changes in the CBA , etc . Who knows what the future will bring? Need to give it a rest . Maybe that is what happens in a slow hot stove league . I say , fix the bullpen and get started on defending the title . If John Henry wants to spend the money , good . If he doesn't, good . Enjoy the coming season . But if you get more enjoyment from the other stuff , so be it .

 

Proponents of the cliff I'm afraid are likening those who don't believe in such things to people who might deny that the earth is round.

Honestly I hope that when there isn't some massive free fall for this franchise that these folks will be happy and not to terribly upset that they are wrong.

[cp176]

Wow!

 

The cliff deniers were right: our farm system is making a comeback.

 

On the way up, baby!

 

Sounds just a dite sarcastic here. i'm sorry that you posted this. I am really looking forward to watching some of young players advance and prove the doubters wrong. It is beginning to sound as though we have some here who actually want to be right so very badly that they might not even want these kids to succeed. Hope that we are all on the same page here.

[cp176]

Actually ... from Keith Law's chat ...

 

Great to hear this from someone who might know what they are talking about!

[Bellhorn04]

Great to hear this from someone who might know what they are talking about!

 

moon pretty much said Keith Law's statement was full of crap.