A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[moonslav59]

Sounds just a dite sarcastic here. i'm sorry that you posted this. I am really looking forward to watching some of young players advance and prove the doubters wrong. It is beginning to sound as though we have some here who actually want to be right so very badly that they might not even want these kids to succeed. Hope that we are all on the same page here.

 

I'm looking forward to watching rising prospects, too, and we have some good one. The problem is, very few are close enough to ML ready to avert a serious drop in competitiveness. I'm not sure we'll ever see a "massive free fall" with a one-year budget of $1M below the luxury tax line in our re-set year.

[moonslav59]

moon pretty much said Keith Law's statement was full of crap.

 

Wait until you see Law's ranking, then we'll talk about his statement.

[notin]

Proponents of the cliff I'm afraid are likening those who don't believe in such things to people who might deny that the earth is round.

Honestly I hope that when there isn't some massive free fall for this franchise that these folks will be happy and not to terribly upset that they are wrong.

 

 

The cliff has only to do with the Sox getting some good minimum wage talent to offset the high-priced stars. But make no mistake - they’re going to spend for those high-priced stars. As long as Dombrowski is here, he’s never been a GM to depend on his farm system for anything more than trade fodder and the occasional minimum wager...

[Bellhorn04]

Wait until you see Law's ranking, then we'll talk about his statement.

 

His guesses are as valid as any of ours.

[Bellhorn04]

The cliff has only to do with the Sox getting some good minimum wage talent to offset the high-priced stars. But make no mistake - they’re going to spend for those high-priced stars. As long as Dombrowski is here, he’s never been a GM to depend on his farm system for anything more than trade fodder and the occasional minimum wager...

 

He hasn't depended on Benintendi or Devers?

[OH FOY]

Vazquez got in 12 Post Seasons game this year, hit .216 32 at bats.

Leon got in 10 Post Seasons game this year hit .231 13 at bats.

[cp176]

I'm looking forward to watching rising prospects, too, and we have some good one. The problem is, very few are close enough to ML ready to avert a serious drop in competitiveness. I'm not sure we'll ever see a "massive free fall" with a one-year budget of $1M below the luxury tax line in our re-set year.

 

I know that you are looking forward to these kids getting the opportunities they deserve just like I am.

[cp176]

Vazquez got in 12 Post Seasons game this year, hit .216 32 at bats.

Leon got in 10 Post Seasons game this year hit .231 13 at bats.

 

 

Hey no matter what people think, when you look at catching from a total package perspective, this is a weak spot of this team's roster. Does that mean that we can't win by using V and L in that position - of course not we did. Do we need to upgrade the position?- probably not. Does it mean that the defense, pitch calling, arm strength and framing is better than everybody else who plays the position? I would not be too terribly upset if either one of these guys was traded for an upgrade but I think to get anything of value back for either, someone would have to be awfully desperate for a catcher.

[notin]

He hasn't depended on Benintendi or Devers?

 

He inherited both, and Devers was the only top prospect he didn’t trade..,

[moonslav59]

I view our catching tandem as a clear strength.

[oldtimer]

Hey no matter what people think, when you look at catching from a total package perspective, this is a weak spot of this team's roster. Does that mean that we can't win by using V and L in that position - of course not we did. Do we need to upgrade the position?- probably not. Does it mean that the defense, pitch calling, arm strength and framing is better than everybody else who plays the position? I would not be too terribly upset if either one of these guys was traded for an upgrade but I think to get anything of value back for either, someone would have to be awfully desperate for a catcher.

 

I agree with your position. We can get by with the two we had last year, but I don't view them as a strength as some others do. I would also be satisfied with keeping Swihart and letting go of Leon. The argument about letting Leon go is that no one else will trade anything for him. That should give us a hint of his value withing MLB.

[Bellhorn04]

He inherited both, and Devers was the only top prospect he didn’t trade..,

 

He didn't trade Benintendi either.

[Bellhorn04]

He inherited both, and Devers was the only top prospect he didn’t trade..,

 

Why are you distinguishing between prospects he inherited and prospects he didn't inherit?

 

The prospects he traded were generally ones he inherited, weren't they? That's what he keeps getting criticized for. But you're saying that inherited prospects he didn't trade don't enter into the equation?

 

I guess I need some guidelines here on what counts and what doesn't.

[notin]

Why are you distinguishing between prospects he inherited and prospects he didn't inherit?

 

The prospects he traded were generally ones he inherited, weren't they? That's what he keeps getting criticized for. But you're saying that inherited prospects he didn't trade don't enter into the equation?

 

I guess I need some guidelines here on what counts and what doesn't.

 

 

I suppose.

 

Basically he trades lots of prospects. That doesn’t mean he trades all his prospects .

 

He even held on to a few in Detroit, like Castellanos and Rondon.

 

The bottom line is, he’s going to spend to retain some good talent, because he is allowed to. The Sox won’t be having as many good minimum wage replacements, but the team likely won’t go into a complete free fall thanks in large part to their large payroll...

Edited January 28, 2019 by notin

[cp176]

I view our catching tandem as a clear strength.

 

I'll clarify my comment. Most teams I guess could see it as a luxury to have a couple of above average receivers on their club. Once again looking at the total catching package on this team which really doesn't have much in the way of weakness, I don't see either Vazquez or Leon as something special. It's nice to have them both but if we needed any offense from that position niether amounts to very much. Most teams seem to require some offense from the catching position. We are lucky that we don't seem to have that need. If they stay great and if one or the other is traded, ho hum.

[Bellhorn04]

I suppose.

 

Basically he trades lots of prospects. That doesn’t mean he trades all his prospects .

 

This is headed toward here we go round the mulberry bush territory.

 

But when Dombrowski came in we needed pitching desperately. The major league pitching staff was extremely weak and there was none in the system anywhere near MLB-ready. So he traded for some pitchers. He also made a bunch of deadline trades.

 

He did not make one single trade of any significance for a position player.

[sk7326]

Henry was also the owner in 2012, 2014 and 2015. Those years, the teams were not bad on paper, but we finished last 3 out of 4 years.

 

I'm not saying we'll finish in last the year we reset, but we won't be competitive...let alone highly competitive.

 

Those were teams that thought they'd be competitive - they were trying. People make mistakes - that is different than not trying.

[sk7326]

I think we are becoming extremely obsessive in our concern over the cliff , the reset , the farm , the luxury tax , hanging on to some rather marginal players , possible changes in the CBA , etc . Who knows what the future will bring? Need to give it a rest . Maybe that is what happens in a slow hot stove league . I say , fix the bullpen and get started on defending the title . If John Henry wants to spend the money , good . If he doesn't, good . Enjoy the coming season . But if you get more enjoyment from the other stuff , so be it .

 

I couldn't care less about the cliff. This team is set to be very good by having a lot of young core talent. The ownership can clearly afford to make clear eyed decisions on them. If they suddenly turn into the Oakland A's, they will deserve all the derision they get. Now I don't think that will happen.

[moonslav59]

I'll clarify my comment. Most teams I guess could see it as a luxury to have a couple of above average receivers on their club. Once again looking at the total catching package on this team which really doesn't have much in the way of weakness, I don't see either Vazquez or Leon as something special. It's nice to have them both but if we needed any offense from that position niether amounts to very much. Most teams seem to require some offense from the catching position. We are lucky that we don't seem to have that need. If they stay great and if one or the other is traded, ho hum.

 

I think they are special.

 

Does that make up for me not thinking our farm is special?

 

LOL

[notin]

This is headed toward here we go round the mulberry bush territory.

 

But when Dombrowski came in we needed pitching desperately. The major league pitching staff was extremely weak and there was none in the system anywhere near MLB-ready. So he traded for some pitchers. He also made a bunch of deadline trades.

 

He did not make one single trade of any significance for a position player.

 

His career didn’t start in Boston. I’m talking about his MO. Outside of going all in for a closer, he’s basically being the same executive here he’s been for a long time.

 

The entire point was when the Sox prospect pipeline falls, the Sox aren’t very likely to go into some sort of freefall due to a dearth of minimum wage players stepping in. Sure there will be some, probably of lesser quality than we’ve been seeing recently. But he’s still going to spend to do things like keep Betts and/or Bogaerts, sign free agents. I doubt the 220 payroll will be under $220mill. And while the team won’t have superstar big names at every position, they will still be competitive. Just like we expect them to be this year even if Barnes and/or Brasier wind up closing games...

[Bellhorn04]

His career didn’t start in Boston. I’m talking about his MO. Outside of going all in for a closer, he’s basically being the same executive here he’s been for a long time.

 

Forgetting his past MO, I think what he did here was what he had to do. That's my point.

[jacksonianmarch]

When your team hired DD, you knew what you were getting. You were getting a guy who is willing to pay for top tier talent with either cash or prospects. In comes Price, Sale, Kimbrel and JDM. Second tier guys come in like Eovaldi and Pomeranz. In comes Thornburg and Smith via trade. In Miami, he restocked that team in a tear down. In Detroit, no such tear down existed and that team, while good for an extended period of time, is now in the middle of a LONG rebuild. DD will bring you to relevance but the back end cost will be very high. For three years now, your squad has won the east and you have a title. The Sox are poised to be a title contender again in 2019. If the cliff hits and the team sinks into mediocrity, can you really say it wasn’t worth it? This was the trade off.

[OH FOY]

I view our catching tandem as a clear strength.

 

I do too. The Strength is from the Pitching side of these 2. They prevent Runs, by calling a good game, and playing strong Defense behind the plate.

[notin]

Forgetting his past MO, I think what he did here was what he had to do. That's my point.

 

But it wasn’t contrary to mine.

 

It is possible to say DD traded away the Sox farm system without it being a complaint. It actually happened. It’s a part of the history of this team. I can provide links and everything for proof...

[notin]

I do too. The Strength is from the Pitching side of these 2. They prevent Runs, by calling a good game, and playing strong Defense behind the plate.

 

I wouldn’t call the Sox catching tandem (really a trio) as a strength. They’re acceptable. But the Sox could upgrade there given the opportunity...

[OH FOY]

They are some of best game callers in all of Baseball, Jerry Grote wasn't a Offensive Gem, but those Mets Pitcher called him the best in the game behind the plate. Stop looking at Offense in this position.

[notin]

They are some of best game callers in all of Baseball, Jerry Grote wasn't a Offensive Gem, but those Mets Pitcher called him the best in the game behind the plate. Stop looking at Offense in this position.

 

 

Are you really sure they’re among the best game-callers in the game? Are they better or worse than Austin Hedges, Yasmani Grandal, Marti Maldonado, Tyler Flowers, Mike Zunino, and Buster Posey?

 

In fact, Vazquez’ defense is pretty scattered from year to year with some defensive metrics(Not so much with Leon).

 

Vazquez is capable of being a good defensive catcher, but let’s not pretend he is best in the business. It’s not like any of us are watching them all equally...

Edited January 28, 2019 by notin

[Bellhorn04]

I wouldn’t call the Sox catching tandem (really a trio) as a strength. They’re acceptable. But the Sox could upgrade there given the opportunity...

 

They might be a strength when you factor in their actual cost and control years, though, and when you factor in the cost of upgrading.

[moonslav59]

I wouldn’t call the Sox catching tandem (really a trio) as a strength. They’re acceptable. But the Sox could upgrade there given the opportunity...

 

Yes, there are catchers who do what ours do on defense and with the staff but also hit better, but I still view our catchers as a strength. They are not the best, but they save so much behind the plate it more than makes up for their poor hitting.

[Michigan adam]

Like always the consideration is to fill weak spots by spending capital. Sometimes the capital runs out faster than others, and sometimes there isn't enough capital to fill all of the holes. IN baseball the capital is picks, international money, free agent money, ML prospects, and big club players. The sox this year have 1 or 2 more holes, but are basically out of capital. They have a few replacement level or slightly above replacement level SP's, 3 slightly above average C's, and potentially 1 extra utility infielder, with a weakness(not necessarily a hole) at 2nd. THey should probably try to deal from their modest surpluses to get at least a potential closer if at all possible, but that leaves very little depth....