A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[kenmeister]

Any idea where you read it? I can't find a thing. Doesn't sound legit.

 

Let's see.

 

I was in this article for one. https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2018/12/04/nathan-eovaldi-red-sox

 

"His stuff and his makeup are clearly outstanding, and the fresh memory of his postseason excellence has brought him several suitors, including the Yankees. The suggestion in September that he might get $15 million a year now seems quaint."

 

But that's not quite what I'm thinking of. Hmm...

[moonslav59]

Some notes from soxprospects.com...

 

http://news.soxprospects.com/2018/12/minor-notes-40-man-roster-moves-and.html

 

With the rise of data in baseball, it is interesting to note that Darwinzon Hernandez was identified as a top Statcast performer in the Arizona Fall League. He had one of the top spin rates on both his four-seam fastball and curveball, and the spin rates he showed on both of those pitches would be elite even at the major league level. The only other left-handed pitcher that has velocity and spin rates like that in the majors is Pirates closer Felipe Vazquez.

 

The move to sign Juan Centeno was needed after Dan Butler retired. Butler spent nine of his 10 professional seasons in the Red Sox organization, spending parts of the 2014 and 2018 seasons in Boston. The 32-year-old is due to get a World Series ring and he will now join the Arizona Diamondbacks as a bullpen catcher for the 2019 season. Former SoxProspects.com writer Jon Meoli had a great interview with Butler back in 2011 that is worth another read as his playing career comes to an end.

[Kimmi]

How many of those 8+ year deals were given to 28 year olds?

 

I don't know, but that doesn't change the fact that most of a 10 year contract for Mookie will be for past prime years.

[Kimmi]

Seems like a possible solution to avoid the large long term contracts is to keep the farm system producing players.

 

There's a thought.

[Kimmi]

And that is a legitimate argument. My question for you Larry is, would you take a 5 year run of consistent winning with at least 1 title knowing you'd have a 3 year or so down phase where you didn't win?

 

Yes.

[Bellhorn04]

There's a thought.

 

But the farm is bare right now and that's a fact. And there are a number of well-documented reasons why it's bare.

[Kimmi]

It's a conundrum. How do you have a championship team and a strong farm system at the same time ? The easiest way to build a strong farm is to have a crappy team. You get the top draft picks every year . Any good players that you may have , you trade for even more prospects. The trouble is , your fans start to lose interest. Attendance is down. Revenue drops. But your farm is well stocked with prospects . Maybe a few of them will actually pan out. But you still won't have a championship team. You will have to be satisfied with a certain modicum of success.

 

It is possible to have a better balance between short and long term goals. Dombrowski was 'all in' for the short term, with little regard for the long term. It paid off, short term. However, is it possible that we could have won the WS this year without having gone 'all in'? It would not only have been possible, but it would have been probable.

 

So, we only win 99 games in the regular season instead of 108. Who cares?

[Kimmi]

Can't discount the possibility that the Yanks will be in heavy on Eovaldi now that Corbin is out of the picture.

 

I find it interesting that the Yankees have said that they are unwilling to go 4 years on Eovaldi.

[Kimmi]

Remember how mad we all were at the manager whose name I already forget for letting Wright pinch run and get injured? Now we know that Wright is one of those always injured kind of guys.

 

In fact, we should do the oft-injured Sox team:

 

Wright, SP

Bucholz, SP

Jacoby Ellsbury, CF

Trot Nixon, RF

Tim Naehring, 3B

etc.

 

FTR, I have always thought it was silly to blame Farrell for Wright's injury.

[notin]

I find it interesting that the Yankees have said that they are unwilling to go 4 years on Eovaldi.

 

The only starters in this market to even think about going 4 years on are Eovaldi and Keuchel...

[Kimmi]

But the farm is bare right now and that's a fact. And there are a number of well-documented reasons why it's bare.

 

I know.

 

Thank you Dave.

 

Sincerely.

[Bellhorn04]

It is possible to have a better balance between short and long term goals. Dombrowski was 'all in' for the short term, with little regard for the long term. It paid off, short term. However, is it possible that we could have won the WS this year without having gone 'all in'? It would not only have been possible, but it would have been probable.

 

So, we only win 99 games in the regular season instead of 108. Who cares?

 

??? 99 wins this year would have put us in the Wild Card game.

[Kimmi]

The only starters in this market to even think about going 4 years on are Eovaldi and Keuchel...

 

I am sure Dave will go 4 years. I wouldn't, but Dave will.

[Kimmi]

??? 99 wins this year would have put us in the Wild Card game.

 

Yes, and we likely would have won anyway.

[notin]

I am sure Dave will go 4 years. I wouldn't, but Dave will.

 

He went 7 on Price. For 28yo Eovaldi, 4 years is a given. The only question really is - will he go five?

[notin]

FTR, I have always thought it was silly to blame Farrell for Wright's injury.

 

You didn’t see it? Farrell pushed him over and then whacked his kneecap with a ball peen hammer...

[Kimmi]

He went 7 on Price. For 28yo Eovaldi, 4 years is a given. The only question really is - will he go five?

 

I would hope not.

[Kimmi]

You didn’t see it? Farrell pushed him over and then whacked his kneecap with a ball peen hammer...

 

From the blame that Farrell received, you would think that were the case.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, and we likely would have won anyway.

 

Kimmi, no one knows better than you the randomness of one game.

[moonslav59]

I don't know, but that doesn't change the fact that most of a 10 year contract for Mookie will be for past prime years.

 

Well, half the contract will be from ages 28-32. That's not really past prime. Ages 33-35 are many time very good to decent years, so that's 8 out of 10. Only 2 years, at ages 36-37 might be scary, but they could be very good, too.

 

[Nick]

I am sure Dave will go 4 years. I wouldn't, but Dave will.

 

I still think signing Eovaldi is the right move. It will allow Sox to 'go for it' one more time. If and that's a big if, he has a stellar year, it will make losing Sale little easier to swallow the following year. The staff still has some upside left in E Rod becoming a pitcher that everyone expects.

 

Question is whether the farm can produce a legit, major league starting pitcher within next couple of years.

[S5Dewey]

Well, half the contract will be from ages 28-32. That's not really past prime. Ages 33-35 are many time very good to decent years, so that's 8 out of 10. Only 2 years, at ages 36-37 might be scary, but they could be very good, too.

 

 

The question is, will signing Mookie to a 10 year contract make the dreaded cliff more ... or less... likely to happen?

 

Edit: Oops, Nick. I didn't mean to usurp your "The question is". We were typing at the same time!

[Bellhorn04]

I still think signing Eovaldi is the right move. It will allow Sox to 'go for it' one more time. If and that's a big if, he has a stellar year, it will make losing Sale little easier to swallow the following year. The staff still has some upside left in E Rod becoming a pitcher that everyone expects.

 

Question is whether the farm can produce a legit, major league starting pitcher within next couple of years.

 

Assuming they do sign Eovaldi, I think they will probably make a bid to keep one of Sale or Porcello.

[Bellhorn04]

The question is, will signing Mookie to a 10 year contract make the dreaded cliff more ... or less... likely to happen?

 

Less likely, in the short term, IMO. A player of his caliber in prime years is worth more than the 35 million he'll likely be paid. In later years it'll be an overpay.

[S5Dewey]

Since this "cliff" seems to be inevitable I'd rather see them go all in for Eovaldi and make a solid run in 2019 than start a slide in 2019 that slides over the cliff in 2020.

[oldtimer]

Since this "cliff" seems to be inevitable I'd rather see them go all in for Eovaldi and make a solid run in 2019 than start a slide in 2019 that slides over the cliff in 2020.

 

I'm hearing the contract for Eovaldi may include 4 years at arounf 17 million. Pretty close to our expectations and reasonable based on his performance and value in the marketplace. Get that contract out of the way and then take care of the pen.

[moonslav59]

Since this "cliff" seems to be inevitable I'd rather see them go all in for Eovaldi and make a solid run in 2019 than start a slide in 2019 that slides over the cliff in 2020.

 

I'm not really against this move, but it's not a choice between Eovaldi and nothing. We could sign or trade for players who are cheaper or shorter term, and still be highly favored in 2019 AND better positioned in 2020 and 2021 to keep other stars.

[notin]

I'm not really against this move, but it's not a choice between Eovaldi and nothing. We could sign or trade for players who are cheaper or shorter term, and still be highly favored in 2019 AND better positioned in 2020 and 2021 to keep other stars.

 

Probably a plan DD would like to implement, but it’s extremely difficult and a fair amount of luck is involved, which might be why it hasn’t been done in the luxury tax era.

 

The safest strategy is to tweak his successful base and try to repeat, making mad many “upgrades” as he can. This is going to be especially tricky because options to replace Kimbrel and Kelly as successfully simply refuse to come forward and beg for jobs. So DD might have to replace that step down with a step up somewhere else...

[OH FOY]

Hope Sale's Shoulder OK. Shoulder issues seem to never go away. You need a Eovaldi, just for insurance next year. And hope no more problems with his elbow. That's why important in case of injuries this year you don't move any of the decent Prospects. You might need them during season for Trades.

This Off-Season spend only, don't move any Prospects.

Good read months ago.

https://bosoxinjection.com/2018/07/17/red-sox-rumors-j-d-martinez-open-restructuring-contract/

[moonslav59]

Probably a plan DD would like to implement, but it’s extremely difficult and a fair amount of luck is involved, which might be why it hasn’t been done in the luxury tax era.

 

The safest strategy is to tweak his successful base and try to repeat, making mad many “upgrades” as he can. This is going to be especially tricky because options to replace Kimbrel and Kelly as successfully simply refuse to come forward and beg for jobs. So DD might have to replace that step down with a step up somewhere else...

 

He might be counting on a full season from Pearce, Devers and Brasier as being one of the big steps up, but that's assuming no injury counters those gains in playing time.

 

He could take a flyer on one of the lesser SP'ers looking for a short-term deal to re-set their market value and 2 solid set up guys instead of an expensive closer.

 

Maybe something like...

 

A Sanchez $12M x 2 or Matt Harvey at $11M x 2

 

Ottavino $11M x 2

 

C Allen $8M x 2

 

This is basically the same cost, but for less years as

 

Eovaldi $17M x 4

 

Z Britton $12M x 3 or 4