A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[sk7326]

Chavis is weird as he has a reverse split against LHP. He's a RHB that has generally had better success against RHP. That doesn't play well in a platoon. I think he's a guy that needs to really add to his defensive versatility.

 

He is probably never going to be a great defender - but for a guy like him, the goal is to be able to fake a bunch of them (see Nunez, Eduardo) to get his bat in there. Can he be an upper class Eduardo Nunez? I think that's at least possible.

[moonslav59]

He is probably never going to be a great defender - but for a guy like him, the goal is to be able to fake a bunch of them (see Nunez, Eduardo) to get his bat in there. Can he be an upper class Eduardo Nunez? I think that's at least possible.

 

The thing is, we already have Nunez, Holt and a dream of Pedey for 2019. I think his only hope is at 1B, assuming we don't add anyone.

 

I think we trade either Chavis or Ockimey this winter and hold onto Dalbec.

[OH FOY]

Pretend for a second David Price is a Free Agent, would you sign David Price, right now. 4 years at 127 Million....Hell NO! He's 33 years old, your going to need that money. 37 Years old and paying 32 Million, while you lose Mookie. Hope he Opts. Out.

He did exactly what we hoped for, now we would be lucky if he moved on.

But he wont.

Edited October 31, 2018 by OH FOY!

[Bellhorn04]

Pretend for a second David Price is a Free Agent, would you sign David Price, right now. 4 years at 124 Million....Hell NO! He's 33 years old, your going to need that money. 37 Years old and paying 31 Million, while you lose Mookie. Hope he Opts. Out.

 

Forget the opt-out. The Talksox brain trust has determined that it isn't happening.

[Nick]

I never called him a top MLB prospect or said we'd get something great for Chavis, Johnson and Swihart. I'm just hoping for a better 5/6 starter than Johnson.

 

Big thing for Sox this year is everyone remaining relatively healthy, especially the starting four of Sale, Price, Porcello and E Rod. I would love to see E Rod take it up another notch. He needs more swings and misses to keep his pitch count low. No matter how he starts off a batter, inevitably he goes to 2-2, 3-2 counts.

[Nick]

Another thing to keep in mind as move forward is that there will be a new Collective Bargaining Agreement for 2022, CB Payroll limit will be $206M, $208M, and $210M over the next three years. I see that going up to around $220M for 2023. Henry may 'go for it' to build additional value for the Sox. At some point he will sell. Three consecutive titles would do it for him.

[Hitch]

Pretend for a second David Price is a Free Agent, would you sign David Price, right now. 4 years at 127 Million....Hell NO! He's 33 years old, your going to need that money. 37 Years old and paying 32 Million, while you lose Mookie. Hope he Opts. Out.

He did exactly what we hoped for, now we would be lucky if he moved on.

But he wont.

 

He's definitely not going anywhere, but I would LOVE it if he opted out. We got the best out of his contract and then we wouldn't have to pay for the declining years. But like I say, he's not going anywhere.

[Nick]

There's a possiblity of Sox completely starting from scratch for 2020 under following scenario.

 

Pedey retires at the end of 2019 due to another injury.

JD Martinez opts out after 2019. (He can do this both 2019 and 2020).

 

At that point, there's only two contracts on the books.

 

Price 3 more years at $31M.

Vazquez 2 more years at $4.517M.

 

Trade away every arbitration eligible players for surplus of young, cost controlled talent.

 

If we win again in 2019, I don't think I'd be too upset.

 

What can we get for Betts, JBJ, Beni, Devers, E Rod?

[mvp 78]

There's a possiblity of Sox completely starting from scratch for 2020 under following scenario.

 

Pedey retires at the end of 2019 due to another injury.

JD Martinez opts out after 2019. (He can do this both 2019 and 2020).

 

At that point, there's only two contracts on the books.

 

Price 3 more years at $31M.

Vazquez 2 more years at $4.517M.

 

Trade away every arbitration eligible players for surplus of young, cost controlled talent.

 

If we win again in 2019, I don't think I'd be too upset.

 

What can we get for Betts, JBJ, Beni, Devers, E Rod?

 

I don't want to be a Devil Rays fan.

[Station 13]

There's a possiblity of Sox completely starting from scratch for 2020 under following scenario.

 

Pedey retires at the end of 2019 due to another injury.

JD Martinez opts out after 2019. (He can do this both 2019 and 2020).

 

At that point, there's only two contracts on the books.

 

Price 3 more years at $31M.

Vazquez 2 more years at $4.517M.

 

Trade away every arbitration eligible players for surplus of young, cost controlled talent.

 

If we win again in 2019, I don't think I'd be too upset.

 

What can we get for Betts, JBJ, Beni, Devers, E Rod?

 

We're not the Oakland A's.

[jung]

So moves will be made by all the contenders for 2019. But Vegas opening line on 2019 WS champs:

Sox and Astros both open at 6:1

Yankees, Dodgers open at 7:1

Clev, Cubs, Brewers, just about anybody left with a shot open at 10:1

 

Clearly then Vegas thinks Sox/Astros are the 2019 ALCS. Opening Dodgers at 7:1 and nobody else in the NL at better than 10:1 says the obvious given what the Dodger team really was.....utter trash. Yet Vegas does not think that at this point anybody else in the NL can keep them from getting at least out of the NL. Probably the only reason the Dodgers are even at 7:1 is because Vegas sees them in a cake walk out of the NL and to the WS.

 

I tend to agree at this point. Sox/Astros to the ALCS which turns out to again produce the WS champ.....injuries and mileage may vary.

[BillyWilliams]

So moves will be made by all the contenders for 2019. But Vegas opening line on 2019 WS champs:

Sox and Astros both open at 6:1

Yankees, Dodgers open at 7:1

Clev, Cubs, Brewers, just about anybody left with a shot open at 10:1

 

Clearly then Vegas thinks Sox/Astros are the 2019 ALCS. Opening Dodgers at 7:1 and nobody else in the NL at better than 10:1 says the obvious given what the Dodger team really was.....utter trash. Yet Vegas does not think that at this point anybody else in the NL can keep them from getting at least out of the NL. Probably the only reason the Dodgers are even at 7:1 is because Vegas sees them in a cake walk out of the NL and to the WS.

 

I tend to agree at this point. Sox/Astros to the ALCS which turns out to again produce the WS champ.....injuries and mileage may vary.

 

Obviously way too early to really predict anything as we really haven't seen any off season moves yet. And keep in mind that both Keuchel and Morton are free agents for Houston. Setting them as co-favorites without seeing how they fill those holes is very premature in my opinion.

 

Here's the espn way too early power rankings (not that I agree)

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25088592/ranking-mlb-teams-ahead-2019-offseason

[Dojji]

We're not the Oakland A's.

 

No kidding. We might let a few stars go, but the core is going to be in our uniform for as long as they're healthy, effective, and want to be here.

[Bellhorn04]

Another thing to keep in mind as move forward is that there will be a new Collective Bargaining Agreement for 2022, CB Payroll limit will be $206M, $208M, and $210M over the next three years. I see that going up to around $220M for 2023. Henry may 'go for it' to build additional value for the Sox. At some point he will sell. Three consecutive titles would do it for him.

 

Whoa, this is some seriously caffeinated thinking, Nick. I think there really is something to be said for relaxing and enjoying the 2018 title-for a few days at least.

[notin]

There's a possiblity of Sox completely starting from scratch for 2020 under following scenario.

 

Pedey retires at the end of 2019 due to another injury.

JD Martinez opts out after 2019. (He can do this both 2019 and 2020).

 

At that point, there's only two contracts on the books.

 

Price 3 more years at $31M.

Vazquez 2 more years at $4.517M.

 

Trade away every arbitration eligible players for surplus of young, cost controlled talent.

 

If we win again in 2019, I don't think I'd be too upset.

 

What can we get for Betts, JBJ, Beni, Devers, E Rod?

 

Last place again?

[jung]

Obviously way too early to really predict anything as we really haven't seen any off season moves yet. And keep in mind that both Keuchel and Morton are free agents for Houston. Setting them as co-favorites without seeing how they fill those holes is very premature in my opinion.

 

Here's the espn way too early power rankings (not that I agree)

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25088592/ranking-mlb-teams-ahead-2019-offseason

 

Dodgers at 2 is an absolute joke. That team is trash and its upper management is trash. I thought the Dodgers would lose in the WS but put up a better fight. Usually on field management and players get the leeway to succeed in the post season. That team was so throttled by absurd upper management and baseball ops that Roberts clearly did not push back on. Until all that changes, they are going nowhere. Yet they are clearly the best of the NL teams which says more about the NL than it does about the Dodgers.

 

Yankees might be rated 2 to whomever is 1 if they learned anything from the 2018 season and if they rebuild their rotation. Too young in the everyday player corp and too old in the pitching corp to really be taken seriously in 2018 in a league that holds the Red Sox and Astros. Red Sox had young guys that had turned into maturing players, not mature players but maturing players plus adds like JD with X and Holt and Nunez to round out the experience. Yankees were just too young (everyday players) and too old (pitching corp) to go far in the 2018 post season.

 

Frankly no team in the NL should be rated above the the big 3 AL teams, Red Sox, Astros, Yankees...put those three in any order you want to put them for 2019. My God I am not even convinced an NL team, ANY NL team could be rated over the Guardians with the caveat mentioned in the ESPN power rankings....lots of FA's for Cleveland to sift through. Being as I am not partial to pinstripes I would hope the only AL team that might bring in Machado would be the Yankees. He is well capable of destroying what that team has going for it. He should stay where he is as he is the perfect NL player now.

 

Anybody with an eye for baseball can see that the NL is now way over burdened by its format. It is just about as burdened by its format as the AL was when it was late adopting integration and got slaughtered year after year in an All Star game that actually meant something in that time. NL is headed for some NASTY years IMO if they don't get their heads screwed on straight.

Edited October 31, 2018 by jung

[BillyWilliams]

Dodgers at 2 is an absolute joke. That team is trash and its upper management is trash. I thought the Dodgers would lose in the WS but put up a better fight. Usually on field management and players get the leeway to succeed in the post season. That team was so throttled by absurd upper management that Roberts clearly did not push back on. Until all that changes, they are going nowhere. Yet they are clearly the best of the NL teams which says more about the NL than it does about the Dodgers.

 

Yankees might be rated 2 to whomever is 1 if they learned anything from the 2018 season and if they rebuild their rotation. Too young in the everyday player corp and too old in the pitching corp to really be taken seriously in 2018 in a league that holds the Red Sox and Astros. Red Sox had young guys that had turned into maturing players, not mature players but maturing players plus adds like JD with X and Holt and Nunez to round out the experience. Yankees were just too young (everyday players) and too old (pitching corp) to go far in the 2018 post season.

 

Frankly no team in the NL should be rated above the the big 3 AL teams, Red Sox, Astros, Yankees...put those three in any order you want to put them for 2019. My God I am not even convinced an NL team, ANY NL team could be rated over the Guardians with the caveat mentioned in the ESPN power rankings....lots of FA's for Cleveland to sift through. Being as I am not partial to pinstripes I would hope the only AL team that might bring in Machado would be the Yankees. He is well capable of destroying what that team has going for it. He should stay where he is as he is the perfect NL player now.

 

Anybody with an eye for baseball can see that the NL is now way over burdened by its format. It is just about as burdened by its format as the AL was when it was late adopting integration and got slaughtered year after year in an All Star game that actually meant something in that time. NL is headed for some NASTY years IMO if they don't get their heads screwed on straight.

 

Again, I just see it as way too early until we see who signs who and who gets traded where. Lots of things can happen to change the landscape.

 

But I do agree that the top three reside in the AL.

[mvp 78]

Last place again?

 

And again and again and again...

[harmony]

Dodgers at 2 is an absolute joke. That team is trash and its upper management is trash. I thought the Dodgers would lose in the WS but put up a better fight. Usually on field management and players get the leeway to succeed in the post season. That team was so throttled by absurd upper management and baseball ops that Roberts clearly did not push back on. Until all that changes, they are going nowhere. Yet they are clearly the best of the NL teams which says more about the NL than it does about the Dodgers.

 

Yankees might be rated 2 to whomever is 1 if they learned anything from the 2018 season and if they rebuild their rotation. Too young in the everyday player corp and too old in the pitching corp to really be taken seriously in 2018 in a league that holds the Red Sox and Astros. Red Sox had young guys that had turned into maturing players, not mature players but maturing players plus adds like JD with X and Holt and Nunez to round out the experience. Yankees were just too young (everyday players) and too old (pitching corp) to go far in the 2018 post season.

 

Frankly no team in the NL should be rated above the the big 3 AL teams, Red Sox, Astros, Yankees...put those three in any order you want to put them for 2019. My God I am not even convinced an NL team, ANY NL team could be rated over the Guardians with the caveat mentioned in the ESPN power rankings....lots of FA's for Cleveland to sift through. Being as I am not partial to pinstripes I would hope the only AL team that might bring in Machado would be the Yankees. He is well capable of destroying what that team has going for it. He should stay where he is as he is the perfect NL player now.

 

Anybody with an eye for baseball can see that the NL is now way over burdened by its format. It is just about as burdened by its format as the AL was when it was late adopting integration and got slaughtered year after year in an All Star game that actually meant something in that time. NL is headed for some NASTY years IMO if they don't get their heads screwed on straight.

The National League had more parity this year with baseball's weakest teams residing in the American League.

 

The top teams in the American League were much better than the best teams in the National League but the worst teams in the American League were worse than the worst teams in the National League.

 

Because only the top teams advance to the postseason, any disparity was exaggerated.

 

The National League this year posted a 154-143 record in interleague play.

[jung]

The National League had more parity this year with baseball's weakest teams residing in the American League.

 

The top teams in the American League were much better than the best teams in the National League but the worst teams in the American League were worse than the worst teams in the National League.

 

Because only the top teams advance to the postseason, any disparity was exaggerated.

 

 

The National League this year posted a 154-143 record in interleague play.

 

Don't care about interleague play records. Until the NL gets its head screwed on straight, they are meaningless. By the way, the Red Sox pounded the NL senseless this year in interleague play. The Astros pounded the NL in interleague play. Still meaningless to me. AL has won 4 of last 6 WS. So they are already on a run.

 

If you go through my post #89 in the 2018 World Series Champions thread, I go through what the format is doing to the NL in morbid detail stat by stat.

 

Honestly the AL has issues as well. But at the very least the AL is keeping in step with what the administrator for both leagues, MLB is driving toward while the NL is now totally out of step with MLB. You can be "independent" of your administrator all you want to be....but at the end of the day the administrator, in this case MLB has the velvet hammer.

Edited October 31, 2018 by jung

[mvp 78]

Arb projections:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/10/mlb-arbitration-salaries-2019.html

 

Red Sox (13)

 

Mookie Betts (4.070) – $18.7MM

Xander Bogaerts (5.042) – $11.9MM

Jackie Bradley Jr. (4.150) – $7.9MM

Eduardo Rodriguez (3.130) – $4.8MM

Brock Holt (5.052) – $3.4MM

Tyler Thornburg (5.057) – $2.3MM

Sandy Leon (4.149) – $2.3MM

Matt Barnes (3.110) – $1.5MM

Brandon Workman (4.051) – $1.4MM

Steven Wright (4.087) – $1.4MM

Heath Hembree (3.106) – $1.2MM

Carson Smith (4.028) – $1.1MM

Blake Swihart (2.164) – $1.1MM

 

8M/yr for JBJ seems market value to me. Barnes' amount seems low, but what do I know?

[sk7326]

Arb projections:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/10/mlb-arbitration-salaries-2019.html

 

Red Sox (13)

 

Mookie Betts (4.070) – $18.7MM

Xander Bogaerts (5.042) – $11.9MM

Jackie Bradley Jr. (4.150) – $7.9MM

Eduardo Rodriguez (3.130) – $4.8MM

Brock Holt (5.052) – $3.4MM

Tyler Thornburg (5.057) – $2.3MM

Sandy Leon (4.149) – $2.3MM

Matt Barnes (3.110) – $1.5MM

Brandon Workman (4.051) – $1.4MM

Steven Wright (4.087) – $1.4MM

Heath Hembree (3.106) – $1.2MM

Carson Smith (4.028) – $1.1MM

Blake Swihart (2.164) – $1.1MM

 

8M/yr for JBJ seems market value to me. Barnes' amount seems low, but what do I know?

 

Arb comps are built using basically 1985 level statistics. So I expect middle reliever comps to be generally very low.

[Hitch]

And again and again and again...

 

Yeah but we'd have an awesome farm.

[notin]

Yeah but we'd have an awesome farm.

 

And if you live in the bottom of a valley you never have to worry about a cliff...

[Bellhorn04]

Don't care about interleague play records. Until the NL gets its head screwed on straight, they are meaningless. By the way, the Red Sox pounded the NL senseless this year in interleague play. The Astros pounded the NL in interleague play. Still meaningless to me. AL has won 4 of last 6 WS. So they are already on a run.

 

You're cherry-picking big time. Interleague games are real games. And 4 out of 6 WS doesn't mean much. If you went back 3 years further the NL has won 5 of 9.

 

There really isn't a large gap in quality between the two leagues. Not at this point, anyway.

[sk7326]

It is very funny how the perception of the Dodgers is shaped by a loss at home in 2017.

 

The Dodgers got off to a terrible start, were without arguably their best player for the stretch run, and had a good chance to win 3 of the 5 games of the series. They have bottomless funds - they'll figure something out. They need a top of the line starter - because Kershaw ain't it anymore. They'll be fine. I'd put them at #3 probably.

[Hitch]

And if you live in the bottom of a valley you never have to worry about a cliff...

 

Lots of flooding though...from all the tears.

[a700hitter]

All that I have to say about the Dodgers is what Cora said about the Yankees, “suck on it!”

[harmony]

Don't care about interleague play records. Until the NL gets its head screwed on straight, they are meaningless. By the way, the Red Sox pounded the NL senseless this year in interleague play. The Astros pounded the NL in interleague play. Still meaningless to me. AL has won 4 of last 6 WS. So they are already on a run.

In other words, the American League is the minimum above .500 over the last six World Series.

 

The National League has won five of the last nine World Series.

[Emp9]

And if you live in the bottom of a valley you never have to worry about a cliff...

 

Yeah but cell reception usually sucks. f***ing Sprint.

 

Ignore this.