A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[BillyWilliams]

I expect minimal movement, which makes for ANOTHER slow and boring off-season.

 

If the Sox can’t re-sign Eovaldi and/or Kimbrel, it could get interesting. But if he can, what’s the biggest question? Is it about offering arbitration to Smith and Thornburg?

 

If he re-signs Kimbrel, Pearce And Eovaldi, the biggest offseason moves might be DFAing Phillips and Renda...

 

Would they really have enough to sign those three?

[notin]

Would they really have enough to sign those three?

 

No idea.

 

I think Pearce will return with a contract similar to Moreland’s.

 

I think only one of Eovaldi and Kimbrel comes back. I lean towards Eovaldi but I think DD might not. There are reasons to consider either one over the other...

[jung]

I don't think they even make an effort for Pearce. Its easy for fans to fall in love with these late season signings. I suspect Baseball Management looks at them as just this year's late season signings.

 

There could be some ways to fit Eo in if they want to go that route. Kimbrel is gone. Pom is gone. Do they really want to keep Porcello or trade him out to somebody? Eo is younger. Rick is more reliable....the steady eddie of the staff after he gets past a couple Porcellos per game. Probably can't even afford to resign Kelly.

 

IMO, they virtually have no shot at staying under the Lux Tax unless they are truly going to start to disassemble the team. Big arb money coming.

 

Ultimately the guys to protect of the killer B's is Betts and X. Then Benni, then JBJ. So ultimately I think JBJ is out at some point.....maybe Benni too eventually. But the Killer B discussion is not for this year with the exception of possibly cutting bait on JBJ.

Edited November 1, 2018 by jung

[notin]

Bogaerts has one year left and isn’t extending this year. While unlikely, he makes some sense to be the first one to move...

[jung]

Bogaerts has one year left and isn’t extending this year. While unlikely, he makes some sense to be the first one to move...

 

I don't think he goes because the window is closing and the Sox have a real shot at going back to back. That would be a real achievement. Unless somebody was willing to give them a bundle in trade for him on the year he has left, I suspect there is more of a chance they try to make hey out of 2019 with X on the team. Given all the other dynamics at play, not a good time to go hunting for a Shortstop and 2 through 6 hitter for a Championship team.

[moonslav59]

@jcmccaffrey

 

Dombrowski says they'll be sending qualifying offers to some of their free agents but aren't at liberty to say until MLB announces it on Friday.

 

"Some?" as in 1? Kimbrel.

 

No way Pearce or Eovaldi gets one, right?

 

1 year deals are nice, so maybe Eovaldi?????

[moonslav59]

@JMastrodonato

 

Luxury tax threshold not a limitation for Red Sox, Dombrowski indicates.

 

We are not re-setting this winter. The real question is the $40M over threshold.

[Station 13]

"Some?" as in 1? Kimbrel.

 

No way Pearce or Eovaldi gets one, right?

 

1 year deals are nice, so maybe Eovaldi?????

 

Pearce and Evoaldi are not qualified to receive one.

[notin]

Pearce and Evoaldi are not qualified to receive one.

 

Kimbrel and Kelly and actually I think Hanley might be (although it doesn’t really matter if he is or isn’t).

 

Kimbrel definitely is. I’d be surprised if Kelly got one...

[jung]

We are not re-setting this winter. The real question is the $40M over threshold.

 

Yea its totally an issue of how much over not staying under. Can't take a Championship Sox team apart in Boston and just claim you want to get back under. This ain't Miami.

 

I bet John Henry is not thrilled with the beer can throwing incidents which were quite high during the duck boat rally. He has millions invested in these guys and kids and moms and girl friends on those things. Those missiles were coming from 20 yards out unannounced and unwanted. "When Gronk can play Shortstop somebody let me know" probably flashed through Henry's mind. Cora gets beer dumped on him in the process. Not a pretty picture.

[sk7326]

That's a very bold call on Price.

 

I will retract on Kershaw ... He has 2 years, 70 million. While he'd never get that on the open market, there IS a chance he can negotiate an extension for say, 4/80 where the Dodgers giving him some extra money and years in exchange for some tax relief.

[sk7326]

I don't think they even make an effort for Pearce. Its easy for fans to fall in love with these late season signings. I suspect Baseball Management looks at them as just this year's late season signings.

 

There could be some ways to fit Eo in if they want to go that route. Kimbrel is gone. Pom is gone. Do they really want to keep Porcello or trade him out to somebody? Eo is younger. Rick is more reliable....the steady eddie of the staff after he gets past a couple Porcellos per game. Probably can't even afford to resign Kelly.

 

IMO, they virtually have no shot at staying under the Lux Tax unless they are truly going to start to disassemble the team. Big arb money coming.

 

Ultimately the guys to protect of the killer B's is Betts and X. Then Benni, then JBJ. So ultimately I think JBJ is out at some point.....maybe Benni too eventually. But the Killer B discussion is not for this year with the exception of possibly cutting bait on JBJ.

 

I think there is a clear number to bring Pearce back - like a year at $6M or so ... put him on the same schedule as Moreland. But the Sox will not stretch for this.

 

Porcello and Bogaerts are both interesting guys to trade - not that they should, but they could get something meaningful with guys they did not plan on signing. Benintendi has another 2 years before arbitration so he is a non-issue for a while

[Bellhorn04]

I will retract on Kershaw ... He has 2 years, 70 million. While he'd never get that on the open market, there IS a chance he can negotiate an extension for say, 4/80 where the Dodgers giving him some extra money and years in exchange for some tax relief.

 

Price has already opted in.

[mvp 78]

Price has already opted in.

 

But he said he owns all the cards noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww....

[moonslav59]

Pearce and Evoaldi are not qualified to receive one.

 

So, who besides Kimbrel?

 

The word "some" is confusing.

 

It can only be one.

[jacksonianmarch]

Pom would be able to receive one, but theres no way he is getting one. Kimbrel will be the only one.

[moonslav59]

I think there is a clear number to bring Pearce back - like a year at $6M or so ... put him on the same schedule as Moreland. But the Sox will not stretch for this.

 

Porcello and Bogaerts are both interesting guys to trade - not that they should, but they could get something meaningful with guys they did not plan on signing. Benintendi has another 2 years before arbitration so he is a non-issue for a while

 

Being a platoon player on the short end of PAs (vs LHPs only) is usually not worth what Moreland got (a player on the right side of the platoon), but maybe some team will sign him to play FT. He did pretty well vs RHPs while with us, and not just in the playoffs.

 

I think he'll get $14M/2 or $20M/3. I'm not sure that's with us.

[notin]

So, who besides Kimbrel?

 

The word "some" is confusing.

 

It can only be one.

 

Kimbrel, Kelly, and possibly Hanley. (“Possibly” referring to eligibility, not likelihood. He’s ot getting one.)

 

I suspect Kimbrel is the only player getting one...

[Bellhorn04]

Dave is a great GM but he makes some confusing statements when the season is over.

[Slasher9]

i wouldnt even offer kimbrel one. i dont want him at $18-20MM for even 1 year.

[notin]

i wouldnt even offer kimbrel one. i dont want him at $18-20MM for even 1 year.

 

And the Sox won’t get him for that even if they offer it.

 

He’s not accepting. This is his payday, and probably his final one...

[mvp 78]

Dave is a great GM but he makes some confusing statements when the season is over.

 

It's not his job to be extremely specific to the media about his plans. It's always better to talk in generalities.

[mvp 78]

@PeteAbe

 

Sox also reinstated Dustin Pedroia, infielder Marco Hernandez, and RHP Austin Maddox off the DL and and outrighted infielder Tony Renda and RHP Justin Haley off the major league roster.

[mvp 78]

@alexspeier

 

Red Sox outright RHP Carson Smith off the 40-man roster. He’s elected free agency. Justin Haley and Tony Renda were outrighted off the 40-man But remain in the organization.

[moonslav59]

Here is our current 40 man roster minus the FAs to be (33 players): Red=Bubble players (Trade or DFA)

 

8 Starting Pitchers:

Price, Porcello, Rodriguez, Wright, Johnson, Velazquez, W Cuevas, C Shepherd

 

9 Relief Pitchers:

Barnes, Brasier, Hembree, Workman, Poyner, Thornburg, Scott, Walden, A Maddox

 

3 Catchers:

Vazquez, Leon, Swihart

 

2- 1B:

Moreland, Travis

 

3- 2B:

Pedroia, Holt, M Hernandez

 

2- 3B:

Devers, Nunez

 

2- SS:

Bogaerts, Lin

 

1- LF:

Benintendi

 

1- CF:

Bradley

 

1-RF:

Betts

 

1- DH:

Martinez

 

Add 7 (or more if we lose some bubble players/less if we sign or trade for someone) from our Rule 5 list:

Victor Acosta, Christopher Acosta, Yoan Aybar, Roldani Baldwin, Trey Ball, Juan Barriento, Edilson Batista, Eduard Bazardo, Jordan Betts, Marino Campana, Rusney Castillo, Michael Chavis, Luis Colmenares, Eduard Conde, Harrison Cooney, Jake Cosart, Ricardo Cubillan, Enmanuel De Jesus, Chad De La Guerra, Jhonathan Diaz. Jerry Downs, Nick Duron, Junior Espinoza, Willis Figueroa, Devon Fisher, Austin Glorius, Daniel Gonzalez, Juan Hernandez, Darwinzon Hernandez, Oscar Hernandez, Tyler Hill, Dedgar Jimenez, Trevor Kelley, Trenton Kemp, Matt Kent, Travis Lakins, Marcos Lantigua, Adam Lau, Deiner Lopez, Isaias Lucena, Chris Madera, Danny Mars, Algenis Martinez, Tate Matheny, Kevin McAvoy, Daniel McGrath, Samuel Miranda, Joseph Monge, Mark Montgomery, Jhon Nunez, Josh Ockimey, Angel Padron, Yorvin Pantoja, Yankory Pimentel, Roniel Raudes, Austin Rei, Hildemaro Requena, Denyi Reyes, Eddy Reynoso, Jeremy Rivera, Jake Romanski, Teddy Stankiewicz, Kevin Steen, Cole Sturgeon, Josh Taylor, Luke Tendler, Josh Tobias, Carlos Tovar, Kyri Washington, Jantzen Witte, Kyle Wren

 

Updated after Smith, Haley & Renda are demoted or cut loose.

[moonslav59]

Updated budget with no Carson Smith.

 

In Luxury Tax Dollars

31.1 David Price

22.0 JD Martinez

20.1 Rick Porcello

18.7 Mookie Betts

13.8 Dustin Pedroia

15.0 Chris Sale

11.9 Xander Bogaerts

7.9 Jackie Bradley Jr.

6.5 Mitch Moreland

5.0 Eduardo Nunez (with PA bonus reached)

4.8 Eduardo Rodriguez

4.5 Christian Vazquez

3.4 Brock Holt

2.3 Tyler Thornburg

2.3 Sandy Leon

1.5 Matt Barnes

1.4 Brandon Workman

1.4 Steven Wright

1.2 Heath Hembree

1.1 Blake Swihart

 

$173M Total (20 players)

 

$2.2M Min for 4 MLB roster players

 

$2.2M 15 players in minor leagues on 40 man roster

 

$14.5M Player Benefits

 

$18.5M Sandoval

 

$210M Total

Edited November 1, 2018 by moonslav59

[jung]

Updated budget with no Carson Smith.

 

 

$18.5M Sandoval

 

$210M Total

 

f***ing Panda. I would like to fly him up suspended from a helicopter and drop him right on Cherry's face. "Here Ben, Boston says HELLO".

[Kimmi]

@alexspeier

 

Dombrowski says Sox like all 3 of their catchers. ‘I’d say it’s unlikely but not impossible that you have three guys... I’m not sure where that’s going to take us at this point.’ Implies team is open-minded about where it will go with Vazquez/Swihart/Leon.

 

I still like the idea of having 3 catchers, IF one of them can play solidly at several other positions. But, for whatever reason, Cora seemed reluctant to give Swihart the playing time at those other positions.

[S5Dewey]

I still like the idea of having 3 catchers, IF one of them can play solidly at several other positions. But, for whatever reason, Cora seemed reluctant to give Swihart the playing time at those other positions.

 

Mostly because Swi isn't as good as the guys he'd be replacing.

 

Swi is stuck in no-man's land. He's probably good enough to be a backup catcher but we've got one of those. He's also good enough to be a back-up position player, but not on the Sox with Nunez and Holt already there.

 

I like Swihart and I think he has a future in MLB if he'd get the playing time but there's no spot for him on the Sox. Do the kid a favor and trade him.

[Kimmi]

And the Sox won’t get him for that even if they offer it.

 

He’s not accepting. This is his payday, and probably his final one...

 

Which is a good reason to offer him one.