A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[notin]

Yeah but cell reception usually sucks. f***ing Sprint.

 

Ignore this.

 

I have Sprint. In fact I’m posting from my cell right now and let me tell you my reception is alwa

[jung]

In other words, the American League is the minimum above .500 over the last six World Series.

 

The National League has won five of the last nine World Series.

 

Thee of those NL WS from the Giants at the end of their run. The point is the NL is now out of touch and out of step with the administrator which is MLB. The juiced baseball and launch angle hitting to this degree is only three years old. The Overload is only eight years old and has only become as prevalent as it is (32,000 overloads in 2018) in the last four years growing exponentially year over year. The rule changes of relevance are only three years old. So going back to 2009 in this discussion makes no sense. SORRY. Pitcher hits is killing NL quality of play and its killing it competitively as much as being late to integration killed the AL in the All Star game at a time when the ASG really and truly meant something.

 

Actually the Yankees had a winning record against the NL in interleague play in 2018 as well. Still and all even though the 3 BEST teams in all baseball pounded out the NL in interleague I just do not see how the interleague record is meaningful nor will it be until the NL gets its head screwed on straight. I am not cherry picking the Interleague records as much as I just don't think they mean a rats behind in this particular discussion.

 

Either MLB has to move back toward the NL game (good luck with that) or the NL has to wise up. For example does anybody in their right mind think we would have had a 7:20 minute WS game on the AL format? Does anybody think that game did MLB any good? Was anybody outside of hard core Boston and LA fans watching it after 6 hours?

Edited October 31, 2018 by jung

[OH FOY]

Man, what a deal Brewers got in Yelich. 36.2 Million in next 3 years. I'm sure they will pick up his Option, so 51.2 in next 4 years. Edited October 31, 2018 by OH FOY!

[dgalehouse]

I have Sprint. In fact I’m posting from my cell right now and let me tell you my reception is alwa

 

Good one.

[jung]

Man, what a deal Brewers got in Yelich. 36.2 Million in next 4 years.

 

I actually think last year's salary surprises were not surprises but a change in trend. Think the era of player salaries going up and up and up has passed them by. We will know from this year's FA signings.

Edited October 31, 2018 by jung

[moonslav59]

I actually think last year's salary surprises were not surprises but a change in trend. Think the era of player salaries going up and up and up has passed them by. We will know from this year's FA signings.

 

I believe Yelich's deal was signed during his arb years. It was not an open market deal.

 

 

One major reason free agent salaries seemed lower last year was that a few teams were busy re-setting their luxury tax,

 

My guess is salaries will look high again this winter. While baseball viewership may be dropping, owners are still making a killing, and some teams need to win to make more money.

 

[jung]

I believe Yelich's deal was signed during his arb years. It was not an open market deal.

 

 

One major reason free agent salaries seemed lower last year was that a few teams were busy re-setting their luxury tax,

 

My guess is salaries will look high again this winter. While baseball viewership may be dropping, owners are still making a killing, and some teams need to win to make more money.

 

 

A number of teams were struggling with the Tax last year. That is true. We will know for sure based on this FA season. If its all same same, then last year will look like an anomaly. If it looks more like last year that would not surprise me either. Owners are making bundles but they are making bundles because of their network ownerships or TV deals all of which are driven by commercial ad buy rates. The ratings numbers going the wrong way will have an immediate impact on the revenue stream and it won't be insignificant either.

 

This will be a good year to monitor salary because the Lux tax element is not so prevalent this year.

 

I do wonder why Yelich did not attract more competitive bidding regardless of any factor. Unless his low HR totals in that graveyard for fly balls the Marlins play in simply was not calculated accurately.

Edited October 31, 2018 by jung

[Nick]

And again and again and again...

 

We can build from within.........Kimmi approves.

[notin]

I do wonder why Yelich did not attract more competitive bidding regardless of any factor. Unless his low HR totals in that graveyard for fly balls the Marlins play in simply was not calculated accurately.

 

He was never a free agent.

 

Yelich signed his current deal after 2 years of service time and avoided the arbitration process and delayed his free agency by 3 years.

 

The Sox should try to lock up Benitendi similarly...

[a700hitter]

And again and again and again...

I have to confess that I enjoy three consecutive Division championships and a World championship so much more than 3 last place finishes. Those were horrible summers. Three consecutive Division Championships has been really sweet. It is something that no Red Sox fan has seen, even if they are 100+ years old. That's a lot of winning and great baseball.

[jung]

He was never a free agent.

 

Yelich signed his current deal after 2 years of service time and avoided the arbitration process and delayed his free agency by 3 years.

 

The Sox should try to lock up Benitendi similarly...

 

Thats right...that was a straight up trade. What was I thinking? I think the Marlins got something like 4-5 bodies out of that.

[notin]

Thats right...that was a straight up trade. What was I thinking? I think the Marlins got something like 4-5 bodies out of that.

 

His contract was originally signed with the Marlins and the Brewers unloaded the top of their farm for him.

 

Lorenzo Cain was signed as a free agent. And for a lot more money per year...

[Bellhorn04]

I believe Yelich's deal was signed during his arb years. It was not an open market deal.

 

 

One major reason free agent salaries seemed lower last year was that a few teams were busy re-setting their luxury tax,

 

My guess is salaries will look high again this winter. While baseball viewership may be dropping, owners are still making a killing, and some teams need to win to make more money.

 

 

Attendance down, viewership down. Owners are making a killing but there are some bearish indicators.

[OH FOY]

He was never a free agent.

 

Yelich signed his current deal after 2 years of service time and avoided the arbitration process and delayed his free agency by 3 years.

 

The Sox should try to lock up Benitendi similarly...

 

Yep! Good Post!!

[Nick]

I have to confess that I enjoy three consecutive Division championships and a World championship so much more than 3 last place finishes. Those were horrible summers. Three consecutive Division Championships has been really sweet. It is something that no Red Sox fan has seen, even if they are 100+ years old. That's a lot of winning and great baseball.

 

I'm trying to tamper my expectations going forward but this has been a great run.

 

Deep down, my hope is Henry decides to 'go for it' again and again. I realize we can't sign everyone but if the core group can be kept for few more years, I'll learn to do back flips at age 60. It's all good.

 

I also enjoy being nice to Yankees fans (our high school baseball coach is one) when we're on top. I work the scoreboard at our high school baseball games and we play "Sweet Caroline" after top of the fifth inning. A little dig at our baseball coach but the fans love it here in Indiana.

Edited October 31, 2018 by Nick

[notin]

Trevor Rosenthal was a long shot for the Sox bullpen anyway, but apparently he has already agreed to a contract with the Nationals...

[oldtimer]

With who we got coming back in 2019, we don't need a tremendous set of minor league prospects. If we can sign Eovaldi, Kelly, add a BP arm and resign Pearce, we are very strong. We do have Groome and Feltman as prospects with at least one with a possibility of making the team in 2019. Casas is at least a year away but might be a logical step from Moreland and Pearce.

[jacksonianmarch]

Casas was drafted this year and missed the entirety of his debut season. He’s gonna be in the low levels next year. He’s 3-4 years away

 

Grooms just had TJS and was in A ball. He’s gonna come back halfway through 2019 in low A. He’s 2-3 years away at best.

[notin]

With who we got coming back in 2019, we don't need a tremendous set of minor league prospects. If we can sign Eovaldi, Kelly, add a BP arm and resign Pearce, we are very strong. We do have Groome and Feltman as prospects with at least one with a possibility of making the team in 2019. Casas is at least a year away but might be a logical step from Moreland and Pearce.

 

Groomer has barely pitched and Casas was in high school last year. These guys are at least 3years away.

 

Even Feltman only has a year of A-ball under his belt.

 

Hernandez is the most likely of the Sox high ranked pitching prospects to make an appearance in 2019...

[moonslav59]

Hernandez is the most likely of the Sox high ranked pitching prospects to make an appearance in 2019...

 

He's a rule 5, so he should be on our 40 man roster (or elsewhere).

 

To me, the chances for any meaningful input from anyone on the farm, pitchers or otherwise, for 2019 is very minimal.

 

Chavis or Ockimey (slight chance for Dalbec)

 

Quiroz

 

Shawaryn or Shepherd (Haley/Cuevas)

 

Lakins of Feltman

 

[Emp9]

Not so fast people. Isn’t DD known for blowing it all up after winning a championship as well? (I kid, I kid)

[notin]

Not so fast people. Isn’t DD known for blowing it all up after winning a championship as well?

 

And for kicking puppies!!

[moonslav59]

I know this thread is about 2019, but here's a look at the team control years of our top players. These numbers might play into who we sign and for how long we sign them for.

 

After...

 

2018:

Eovaldi

Kimbrel

Pearce

Kelly

Kinsler

Phillips

 

2019:

Sale

Porcello

Bogaerts

Moreland

Nunez

Holt

Thornburg

JD (opt out option)

 

2020:

Betts

JBJ

Wright

Leon

Workman

Smith

JD (opt out option)

 

2021:

ERod

Pedroia

Barnes

Hembree

Option: Vaz

 

2022:

JD (if no opt outs)

Beni

Swihart

 

 

 

[Emp9]

And for kicking puppies!!

 

That bastard!

[Nick]

I know this thread is about 2019, but here's a look at the team control years of our top players. These numbers might play into who we sign and for how long we sign them for.

 

After...

 

2018:

Eovaldi

Kimbrel

Pearce

Kelly

Kinsler

Phillips

 

2019:

Sale

Porcello

Bogaerts

Moreland

Nunez

Holt

Thornburg

JD (opt out option)

 

2020:

Betts

JBJ

Wright

Leon

Workman

Smith

JD (opt out option)

 

2021:

ERod

Pedroia

Barnes

Hembree

Option: Vaz

 

2022:

JD (if no opt outs)

Beni

Swihart

 

 

 

Thanks for the vidual aid. It helps.

 

In terms of priority, we need both Betts and JD. We suspected Betts would have a bounce back year but having JD anchor middle of the lineup solidified this team. We need him. Throw in team controlled kids in Beni and Devers. I would keep JBJ around too.

 

What to do with Xander. We are making a terrible mistake if we give him $20M and up. It's NOT that he's not deserving but spending too much money on a shortstop will necessarily force someone else not being signed. We can't have it all, you have to make choices.

 

Same goes with not signing Kimbrel and looking for a cheaper alternative.

 

Same goes with not signing Porcello when his gig is up. We have to give up something.

 

I rather bet on Betts and JD to continue with our success. We will need to up the ante for JD after 2019 season. I see him as more of priority than Xander. You can always find a good defensive shortstop. Not many JD in this league.

Edited November 1, 2018 by Nick

[jacksonianmarch]

Nick, this is where the attrition game comes into play. If Henry parlayed contracts like a Steinbrenner, then so be it. You cannot create a window with money alone nowadays. You need to use your farm to either deal for top notch talent or develop it. Ben and Theo developed the talent. Dan used it to create this monster of a club. Every single good team will have attrition. Other teams pull away from the super team and the price rises and teams fall. The sox peaked and won a title right smack in the middle of their window. They've got one more year before the pain sets in.

 

Bogaerts is a very good player. There aren't too many 5 WAR players out there. He has been close to 5WAR now in 3 of the last 4 seasons. His first season of his next FA contract will be entirely as a 27 yr old. His age, production and position will be huge for determining his contract. He could conceivable get an 8 yr deal and be prime level for 6-7 of those years. He is gonna get huge money. And while you think his loss will be mitigated by keeping the other players, remember the construction of your lineup. When you have JBJ, Vasquez, and Nunez at the bottom of your order, are you willing to have another minus offensive producer in Xander's place? Also, I know JD changed your lineup, but when he opts out after 2019, he will be 32 years old. Do you offer another 5 year deal at big money to a DH knowing he will not be worth it maybe even a year or two into the contract? I honestly think DD will sign Xander no matter the cost and will thank JD for his time here, offer a QO and let him walk

[Nick]

Nick, this is where the attrition game comes into play. If Henry parlayed contracts like a Steinbrenner, then so be it. You cannot create a window with money alone nowadays. You need to use your farm to either deal for top notch talent or develop it. Ben and Theo developed the talent. Dan used it to create this monster of a club. Every single good team will have attrition. Other teams pull away from the super team and the price rises and teams fall. The sox peaked and won a title right smack in the middle of their window. They've got one more year before the pain sets in.

 

Bogaerts is a very good player. There aren't too many 5 WAR players out there. He has been close to 5WAR now in 3 of the last 4 seasons. His first season of his next FA contract will be entirely as a 27 yr old. His age, production and position will be huge for determining his contract. He could conceivable get an 8 yr deal and be prime level for 6-7 of those years. He is gonna get huge money. And while you think his loss will be mitigated by keeping the other players, remember the construction of your lineup. When you have JBJ, Vasquez, and Nunez at the bottom of your order, are you willing to have another minus offensive producer in Xander's place? Also, I know JD changed your lineup, but when he opts out after 2019, he will be 32 years old. Do you offer another 5 year deal at big money to a DH knowing he will not be worth it maybe even a year or two into the contract? I honestly think DD will sign Xander no matter the cost and will thank JD for his time here, offer a QO and let him walk

 

You make too much sense. I keep thinking about the Sox offense in 2017 and how pitiful it was with no power bat. My guess is most Sox fans think along your thought.

[notin]

Yesterday’s chat on MLBTR suggested a possible trade of Michael Chavis to Texas for Jean Leclerc, which moderator Jason Martinez liked.

 

Of course, this was an MLBTR chat and we have no idea if Boston is talking to Texas or how each team actually feels about the players involved. Martinez did indicate that Boston might have to add another prospect if Texas is aiming to sell high here...

[jacksonianmarch]

Most don’t actually. Most seem fine with letting Xander walk. I see Xander in a similar light that I see Didi for us. Good, not great offensive player who can handle a serious defense first position in a good to very good way.

 

Neither Xander nor Didi jump out aside from April last year when Didi was ridiculous. But their loss will be felt if they are dumped

[notin]

He's a rule 5, so he should be on our 40 man roster (or elsewhere).

 

To me, the chances for any meaningful input from anyone on the farm, pitchers or otherwise, for 2019 is very minimal.

 

Chavis or Ockimey (slight chance for Dalbec)

 

Quiroz

 

Shawaryn or Shepherd (Haley/Cuevas)

 

Lakins of Feltman

 

 

Meaningful is one thing. But we will see a bunch of MLB debuts next year, and I would anticipate Sharwyn, Lakins and Hernandez to each make theirs. I doubt Feltman makes his in 2019. Can we let him pitch in AA before anointing him heir apparent to Kimbrel?

 

On the position player side, Chavis and Ockimey should both be on the 40 man roster, but I think one (or both) gets traded and the other isn’t up until September, barring catastrophic injury problems...