And the off season begins (2018-19)

[notin]

I'm not sure I buy into this. People make decisions every day that aren't in their best financial interest. Sometimes it's not all about the money. People turn down promotions because they don't want to do the next job or because they'd have to move in spite of the fact that they'd make more money at the new job.

 

Go to Baltimore for the money? Really? Do you think that if Baltimore offered him 2/$15.5M and the Sox offered him 2/$15M he'd go to Baltimore? It's difficult to go to a team that's going no place after you've just won the WS and have a chance to stay there.

 

That’s essentially the same offer. If Boston offers 2 years for $15mill and Baltimore offered 3 years $18mill, Pearce is probably an Oriole again.

 

With ballplayers, the safest assumption is money and years matter. Playing time can be a factor for a lot of players, too. We’ve all seen the occasional player sign for family reasons. But joining a winning team never seems to be the priority we think it is as fans. If being on a winning team was the big factor fans think it is, why did those San Francisco teams in the early 2010’s that were winning every other year struggle to get free agents?

 

I can’t tell you how many times I’ve seen a player sign with a bad team only to say he “liked their chances to win.” I’m at home thinking “he likes having nearly no chance?” But then a lot of players probably think that they are a huge factor in making this a winning team...

Edited November 12, 2018 by notin

[SoxnCycles]

Agreed.

 

That said, I often wonder what someone can do with $150 million that they can't do with $120 million. I understand the $30 million is a lot of money, but is it really that significant when you're already making that much? Is it worth uprooting your family from a home that they love, playing for a team that doesn't really have a shot at the playoffs, sacrificing your personal happiness and comfort, etc.?

 

I think much of the going after the most money has to do with ego more so than actually needing the money.

 

And part of it is an agent and the players union pressuring a player to get the max contract.

[jacksonianmarch]

If you want to drive down Pearce's AAV, you're gonna have to increase his years. It is that simple. If Pearce is gonna sign a 1 yr deal, it will be with a team he can play a lot for to try and maximize his intake the following season.

[moonslav59]

That’s essentially the same offer. If Boston offers 2 years for $15mill and Baltimore offered 3 years $18mill, Pearce is probably an Oriole again....

 

.

 

If he'd take the Oriole offer, then why not offer him this...

 

$14M x 2 with a $5M option for a 3rd year and a $2M buyout. He either gets $16M/2 or $19M/3 from us.

 

The luxury tax hit is $8M for 2 years vs $7.5M.

[moonslav59]

If you want to drive down Pearce's AAV, you're gonna have to increase his years. It is that simple. If Pearce is gonna sign a 1 yr deal, it will be with a team he can play a lot for to try and maximize his intake the following season.

 

Our budget issue is more about 2021 than 2019.

 

We can stay competitive through 2020, but having money on the books for 2021 could prevent us from keeping a key star.

 

IMO, we really want to keep contracts at or below 2 years, except maybe for Eovaldi. If we don't keep Eovaldi, then we can probably give 3 years to Pearce and Kelly.

 

[notin]

If he'd take the Oriole offer, then why not offer him this...

 

$14M x 2 with a $5M option for a 3rd year and a $2M buyout. He either gets $16M/2 or $19M/3 from us.

 

The luxury tax hit is $8M for 2 years vs $7.5M.

 

It’s not a point about counter-offering; that’s always an option.

 

Pearce will have a set list of priorities. He easily could take the most money. At 35, he might want more years. But he isn’t going to come back to Boston just to win or because of his childhood fandom. Those might be tie-breaking factors for two or more similarl offers at best.

 

Now if he does sign in Boston, he is definitely going to say those were the primary factors. But he didn’t hire an agent to help him live out his childhood fantasies. If he did, he would have come to Boston long before now and by his own choice. I’m sure they would have given him a minor league deal if he approached them...

[Bellhorn04]

It’s not a point about counter-offering; that’s always an option.

 

Pearce will have a set list of priorities. He easily could take the most money. At 35, he might want more years. But he isn’t going to come back to Boston just to win or because of his childhood fandom. Those might be tie-breaking factors for two or more similarl offers at best.

 

Now if he does sign in Boston, he is definitely going to say those were the primary factors. But he didn’t hire an agent to help him live out his childhood fantasies. If he did, he would have come to Boston long before now and by his own choice. I’m sure they would have given him a minor league deal if he approached them...

 

It's worth noting that there are some potential perks for playing with a winner. Admittedly they may not be large enough to swing the balance.

 

But Pearce should get about $450K or so in postseason money. He also got a new truck, a bunch of cash for autographing memorabilia, and probably some other handouts for doing ads, appearances and such.

 

Yes, I know, the truck ain't happening but once.

[S5Dewey]

That’s essentially the same offer. If Boston offers 2 years for $15mill and Baltimore offered 3 years $18mill, Pearce is probably an Oriole again.

 

With ballplayers, the safest assumption is money and years matter. Playing time can be a factor for a lot of players, too. We’ve all seen the occasional player sign for family reasons. But joining a winning team never seems to be the priority we think it is as fans. If being on a winning team was the big factor fans think it is, why did those San Francisco teams in the early 2010’s that were winning every other year struggle to get free agents?

 

I can’t tell you how many times I’ve seen a player sign with a bad team only to say he “liked their chances to win.” I’m at home thinking “he likes having nearly no chance?” But then a lot of players probably think that they are a huge factor in making this a winning team...

 

IMO the scenarios I expressed (2/$15.5M vs. 2/$15M) is essentially the same offer but at the same time $500,000 is still half a million, which ain't hay. IMO your scenario of 2/$15M vs. 3/18M is about the place where it would be a tough decision.

 

Don't kid yourself, players will pay a premium to be on what they think is a winning team especially players who are in the last years of their career. And paying that premium is a lot easier when you're already looking at $15M.

 

IIRC it was Ted Wiliams who said he'd give up some of those MVP awards if he could have just one World Series Championship.

[jacksonianmarch]

3 $18mil would absolutely get it done. He turns 36 in 2019. If he signed a 2 yr $15 deal, he’d be 38 in his first year after the deal expires. What’s the chance he earns $3 mil as a 38 yr old platoon man? Pretty low.

[notin]

And yet players leave World Series champions every year.

 

Pearce has a ring, and a MVP award to remind him forever how instrumental he was in getting it. Ted Williams has neither of those things. And while salaries were extremely different in those days, did Ted ever say anything about taking less money to win one? (Of course, it still wouldn’t be the same, since Pearce has one.)

 

Pearce might be back, but the Sox are going to have to be in the same neighborhood as any and all other offers

[jacksonianmarch]

The Sox are gonna need to outlast other offers as he’s gonna be stuck in a platoon role.

[Bellhorn04]

David Ortiz might be cited as a player who could have made significantly more money if he had chosen to hit the open market.

[notin]

IMO the scenarios I expressed (2/$15.5M vs. 2/$15M) is essentially the same offer but at the same time $500,000 is still half a million, which ain't hay. IMO your scenario of 2/$15M vs. 3/18M is about the place where it would be a tough decision.

 

Don't kid yourself, players will pay a premium to be on what they think is a winning team especially players who are in the last years of their career. And paying that premium is a lot easier when you're already looking at $15M.

 

IIRC it was Ted Wiliams who said he'd give up some of those MVP awards if he could have just one World Series Championship.

 

Pearce already has a ring and a WS MVP trophy to remind himself how instrumental he was in getting it. Most of the players who take less money to be on a winner are the types who spent the majority of their careers making good money but starting for teams that never won. Andrew McCuthchen, for example, might take a cheaper deal to go play in Atlanta. (That players like McCutchen aren’t going to get the same type of offers they got 5 years ago is also a huge factor.)

 

Pearce might be back, but only if the offer from the Sox is in the same neighborhood as any and all other offers. And he’ll probably say to the press he wants to win again. But if the Sox are not competitive with their offer, he isn’t coming back.

 

And if the Sox want him, I’d expect an offer similar to Mitch Moreland ‘s is about where they price him. The questions left are 1. Do they want him back? And 2), what other offers if any will he get? Let’s face it, WS MVP or not, no team is putting Steve Pearce very high on their wish list. He might not sign anywhere until late January.

 

Also bear in mind, the Sox are the only team that can sign him now. If his agent is any good, he’s already contacted Dombrowski. After all, this is the most marketable Pearce has ever been. It’s possible Dombrowski had no interest, or if he did make an offer, it wasn’t good enough. (Not every offer makes the papers.). If it’s the latter, then Pearce is clearly telling his agent he wants to see what the best offer is. If all Pearce wanted was to come back to Boston no matter what, it could have been done by now...

[S5Dewey]

And yet players leave World Series champions every year.

 

Pearce has a ring, and a MVP award to remind him forever how instrumental he was in getting it. Ted Williams has neither of those things. And while salaries were extremely different in those days, did Ted ever say anything about taking less money to win one? (Of course, it still wouldn’t be the same, since Pearce has one.)

 

Pearce might be back, but the Sox are going to have to be in the same neighborhood as any and all other offers

 

TW won the MVP in '46 & '49.

 

As to salaries, since that was before the days of Free Agency TW had no choice but to play for the Sox if he was going to play at all. Collusion among owners was rampant at that time and anyone challenging the "ownership clause" would be blackballed.

[Bellhorn04]

TW won the MVP in '46 & '49.

 

As to salaries, since that was before the days of Free Agency TW had no choice but to play for the Sox if he was going to play at all. Collusion among owners was rampant at that time and anyone challenging the "ownership clause" would be blackballed.

 

World Series MVP.

[notin]

David Ortiz might be cited as a player who could have made significantly more money if he had chosen to hit the open market.

 

True. But this is certainly not common. The Player’s Union didn’t fight for free agency and then sue the owners for collusion multiple times just to take hometown discounts...

[notin]

TW won the MVP in '46 & '49.

 

As to salaries, since that was before the days of Free Agency TW had no choice but to play for the Sox if he was going to play at all. Collusion among owners was rampant at that time and anyone challenging the "ownership clause" would be blackballed.

 

 

And free agency didn’t exist for another quarter century. If it did exist, would Ted have left Boston to go play for the perennial champion Yankees? Ugly thought...

[S5Dewey]

 

Also bear in mind, the Sox are the only team that can sign him now. If his agent is any good, he’s already contacted Dombrowski. After all, this is the most marketable Pearce has ever been. It’s possible Dombrowski had no interest, or if he did make an offer, it wasn’t good enough. (Not every offer makes the papers.). If it’s the latter, then Pearce is clearly telling his agent he wants to see what the best offer is. If all Pearce wanted was to come back to Boston no matter what, it could have been done by now...

 

It's not quite that clear-cut. I'd be surprised if Pearce's agent HASN'T contacted DD by now, if only to show interest in his coming back. He and his agent are negotiating. Pearce may not be looking for the best offer as much as he is negotiating. Assuming the Sox want him - which is something we don't know - he's probably wanting to find out the spread between what the Sox and some other team will offer him. Then he'll make his decision. Players don't always sign for the best offer.

[S5Dewey]

And free agency didn’t exist for another quarter century. If it did exist, would Ted have left Boston to go play for the perennial champion Yankees? Ugly thought...

 

As ugly as that is, it's also a real possibility. He may have even taken less money to do it.

[Bellhorn04]

True. But this is certainly not common. The Player’s Union didn’t fight for free agency and then sue the owners for collusion multiple times just to take hometown discounts...

 

No, but it does happen. A-Rod himself was willing to have his contract cut by a fair chunk of money to come to Boston. We all know the rest of that story.

 

When Lester was in the final stages of negotiation he told the Giants they were out, even though they were apparently quite prepared to try to outbid the Cubs and Sox.

[notin]

It's not quite that clear-cut. I'd be surprised if Pearce's agent HASN'T contacted DD by now, if only to show interest in his coming back. He and his agent are negotiating. Pearce may not be looking for the best offer as much as he is negotiating. Assuming the Sox want him - which is something we don't know - he's probably wanting to find out the spread between what the Sox and some other team will offer him. Then he'll make his decision. Players don't always sign for the best offer.

 

Well, it really depends on what their definition of best offer is. Money is an extremely common way of determining what offer is best, probably the most common. At 35, Pearce might want more years. This is very likely his last contract, after all.

 

But I doubt he places winning above either of those things. He has a ring. And this is his last chance to make money and extend his career. He’d probably love to come back to Boston, but the Sox are going to have to be competitive or else he’s gone...

[notin]

It's not quite that clear-cut. I'd be surprised if Pearce's agent HASN'T contacted DD by now, if only to show interest in his coming back. He and his agent are negotiating. Pearce may not be looking for the best offer as much as he is negotiating. Assuming the Sox want him - which is something we don't know - he's probably wanting to find out the spread between what the Sox and some other team will offer him. Then he'll make his decision. Players don't always sign for the best offer.

 

But even you agree he wants to see what is out there for him. I don’t think he’s looking at any sort of life-changing contract, but something as little as a third year at the same or maybe even slightly lower AAV might make him chose elsewhere...

[Slasher9]

And part of it is an agent and the players union pressuring a player to get the max contract.

 

good point.

 

if i'm pearce:

- I played for the team i grew up rooting for

- I was the WS MVP and got the hero welcome in a parade

- was an awesome memory that me and my dad will never forget

- I am 35 and this will be my last contract - show me the $$$

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox have to be in the neighborhood, as notin said. It's the financial version of the neighborhood play.

[moonslav59]

The Sox are gonna need to outlast other offers as he’s gonna be stuck in a platoon role.

 

The way Pearce hit righties last year and Moreland nosedived again, Pearce could/should get plenty of time vs righties next year.

[jacksonianmarch]

The Sox have to be in the neighborhood, as notin said. It's the financial version of the neighborhood play.

 

I disagree on the "neighborhood" play. They have to have something unique. Coming back to Boston is a guarantee that he will play the short side of a platoon. He will get offers where he is gonna start against everyone. His experience and production could easily carve out a COF, 1B, or DH role on another squad. He would need to get a total package in Boston that guarantees him more years and more total dollars. Think about it. If he is offered a 1 yr deal in Baltimore to show the kids how it's done, he'd start 150 games injuries aside. He would take that over a 1 yr deal in Boston just because his value will rise. If he gets a 2 yr deal in Cleveland to be their everyday 1b, he'd take that over a 2 yr deal to be a platoon man in Boston. The sox need to offer him a larger package over a longer term for him to type cast himself into a lower earning role. Like I said before, I see him signing a 2 yr $15 mil deal on the open market to start. Maybe the sox give him a 3 yr $18 mil deal. Saves $1.5 mil AAV and offers Pearce an extra year and $3 mil more for his age 38 season. You're not getting him on a 1 yr deal unless he truly takes a discount

[jacksonianmarch]

The way Pearce hit righties last year and Moreland nosedived again, Pearce could/should get plenty of time vs righties next year.

 

Pearce has been better vs Righties than Moreland over the past 3 seasons. It didn't stop Cora from starting Moreland almost exclusively against RHP

[jacksonianmarch]

From when the sox got him, Moreland had 40 more AB's even though Moreland was nursing an injury. Pearce wouldn't have even been in position to be a hero if Moreland hadn't tweaked a hamstring.

[Dojji]

Unfortunately I agree with Jacko on this one. Compare Pearce to Kendrys Morales. That's about the level of production Pearce would provide overall as a fulltime starter and Pierce is a superior defender. Morales is starting.

[Slasher9]

Let's hear your guesses.

Team - Years - Contract

 

Manny Machado:

LA Dodgers / 11 (player opt out after 4) / $379.5MM

 

Bryce Harper:

Phillies / 8 (player opt out after 3) / $264MM