Dave Dombrowski

[Dojji]

No.

 

I am of the opinion that he can be had for 3 years and approximately 45 mil or so.

 

If not, let him walk and take the pick.

 

I've mentioned some contract comparables, and by all indications, you are simply wrong.

 

Look at the recent contracts for Kenley Janssen and Wade Davis, and come back and tell me that 45/3 isn't a total lowball offer for Kimbrel.

[Spudboy]

I've mentioned some contract comparables, and by all indications, you are simply wrong.

 

Look at the recent contracts for Kenley Janssen and Wade Davis, and come back and tell me that 45/3 isn't a total lowball offer for Kimbrel.

 

That is your opinion.

[a700hitter]

Let's compare bullpen salaries, Cubs vs. Red Sox.

 

Top 5 salaries based on AAV:

 

Cubs

Morrow 10,500,000

Cishek 6,500,000

Strop 5,925,000

Wilson 4,250,000

Duensing 3,200,000

30,375,000

 

Red Sox

Kimbrel 13,000,000

Kelly 3,825,000

Thornburg 2,050,000

Smith 850,000

Barnes 605,000

20,330,000

Was

So who's the big bullpen spender? Looks like it's the GOAT.

In any market where Kimbrel makes only 30% more than what Morrow makes, I would say that Kimbrel is a bargain.

[a700hitter]

So no one will answer the question....are you giving kimbrel $20MM x 5?

if I have to go to 5?years, I might make a move for Jansen. If you have the top payroll, you should have a top tier closer. I think there is a stability factor that too closers bring to a team that you need to be successful.

[Dojji]

That is your opinion.

 

Kimbrel has more than enough leverage to insist on being paid as well as Davis or Janssen. This is not an opinion.

 

3/45 is what they were paying closers 10 years ago before the big revenue spike. Would have been a reasonable contract in 2009. In 2019, not so much

[Dojji]

if I have to go to 5?years, I might make a move for Jansen. If you have the top payroll, you should have a top tier closer. I think there is a stability factor that too closers bring to a team that you need to be successful.

The Dodgers have no reason to trade Janssen, and Janssen's contract is actually 3/60 left on it right now. So you'd pay talent for the privilege of paying just as much money in AAV. Call me nuts but I don't think that's the optimal solution.;

[Slasher9]

No.

 

I am of the opinion that he can be had for 3 years and approximately 45 mil or so.

 

If not, let him walk and take the pick.

 

I think the Sox would def offer him that.

I don’t think he accepts it.

[Slasher9]

Given the contracts handed out to similar pitchers such as Wade Davis and Kenly Jansen, I think we'll see closers cross the 20M dollar threshhold within the next year or two, yes.

 

Again, you're trying to say this for shock value, but in an era where top starters made 20M, top closers got 12-15M, so when top starters make $30M, $20M isn't as unreasonable as you're making it sound.

 

As a general rule, the league's top closers tend to march lockstep with #3 starters in terms of salary requirements, at least historically

You typed a lot of words here but not sure I got an answer to my query.

Are you giving Kimbrel $20 x 5?

[Dojji]

I think you guys are setting yourselves up for major sticker shock when we do sign him for about 4/75 or 5/90. somewhere in the 17-19M AAV is roughly what the market has been for that type of talent over the last 2 offseasons, and DD isn't about to let a useful player go over money. Not on the Boston Red Sox.

 

Somehow considering the available alternatives I don't really have a problem signing Kimbrel through hjis age 35, 36 season. I wouldn't sign him much longer than that, but it's not that unreasonable to expect him to be productive over the life of a 5 year contract that he signed at 30 years old.

[Slasher9]

I think you guys are setting yourselves up for major sticker shock when we do sign him for about 4/75 or 5/90. somewhere in the 17-19M AAV is roughly what the market has been for that type of talent over the last 2 offseasons, and DD isn't about to let a useful player go over money. Not on the Boston Red Sox.

 

Somehow considering the available alternatives I don't really have a problem signing Kimbrel through hjis age 35, 36 season. I wouldn't sign him much longer than that, but it's not that unreasonable to expect him to be productive over the life of a 5 year contract that he signed at 30 years old.

 

Fair answer.

[notin]

I wouldn’t be surprised if some team offered Kimbrel 4 years $8mill or 5 years $100mill. But Boston shouldn’t. If they do, who will fill out the rest of the bullpen? Will they be able to retain Kelly and afford Barnes?

 

It makes very little sense to have a top tier closer preceded by a scrap heap bullpen, unless you want to see leads blown in the 7th and 8th innings opposed to the ninth.

 

The bullpen will pitch roughly 600 innings or so over the course of the season. The Sox (or any other team, really) shouldn’t overemphasize the 10% that will be handled by the closer at the expense of the other 90%...

[Dojji]

I wouldn’t be surprised if some team offered Kimbrel 4 years $8mill or 5 years $100mill. But Boston shouldn’t. If they do, who will fill out the rest of the bullpen? Will they be able to retain Kelly and afford Barnes?

 

It makes very little sense to have a top tier closer preceded by a scrap heap bullpen, unless you want to see leads blown in the 7th and 8th innings opposed to the ninth.

 

The bullpen will pitch roughly 600 innings or so over the course of the season. The Sox (or any other team, really) shouldn’t overemphasize the 10% that will be handled by the closer at the expense of the other 90%...

 

20 mil just isn't the kind of money it used to be. Payroll has literally doubled in the past 10 years. People choke on that number because they know we used to pay aces that kind of money, but that was 5-10 years ago. If an ace is worth 30M+, a high end closer is probably worth 20M

 

To put it another way -- relative to payroll, 20M would be a smaller percentage of the team's overall payroll than Papelbon's salary in 2010.

[notin]

20 mil just isn't the kind of money it used to be. Payroll has literally doubled in the past 10 years. People choke on that number because they know we used to pay aces that kind of money, but that was 5-10 years ago. If an ace is worth 30M+, a high end closer is probably worth 20M

 

To put it another way -- relative to payroll, 20M would be a smaller percentage of the team's overall payroll than Papelbon's salary in 2010.

 

In 2010, Papelbon made just over $9mill on a team with an estimated payroll of $164mill, putting him at just over 5% of the payroll. In order for a $20mill closer to be a smaller percentage, the payroll would have to be approximately $400 mill...

[moonslav59]

We're not going to be $39M over the luxury tax every year going forward.

 

Tough choices will have to be made, and people better not blame Henry when he finally pulls on the purse strings. Besides, do we really want our team to become like Steinbrenner's Yankees? (Newsflash: we're heading that way right now.)

 

Of course, I'd love to have Kimbrel back, but not at 10+% of our budget. We'll just have to find another way.

 

If we keep Kimbrel, we'll have to let 1-2 other holes go unfilled...holes where someone pitches 100+ IP or gets up 500+ times in a year.

 

[vegasbob]

So no one will answer the question....are you giving kimbrel $20MM x 5?

 

No. not if I am the responsible party. he is too inconsistent to win a WS ( 3 games of 6 or 7)

[vegasbob]

The Dodgers have no reason to trade Janssen, and Janssen's contract is actually 3/60 left on it right now. So you'd pay talent for the privilege of paying just as much money in AAV. Call me nuts but I don't think that's the optimal solution.;

 

If you follow Janssen closely you will see that he is no magician either and won't be a part of the 2018 WS winners

[Bellhorn04]

You typed a lot of words here but not sure I got an answer to my query.

Are you giving Kimbrel $20 x 5?

 

$20 X 5 is clearly too much IMO. Especially since we're seeing signs of stuff diminishing.

[moonslav59]

$20 X 5 is clearly too much IMO. Especially since we're seeing signs of stuff diminishing.

 

...even if he was getting better every year.

[mvp 78]

Seeing that the highest paid closer is currently paid $17M, I'm not sure Kimbrel gets $20.

[mvp 78]

Herrera will probably be much cheaper. If Kimbrel's price tag gets too high, they should just grab him.

[Slasher9]

Seeing that the highest paid closer is currently paid $17M, I'm not sure Kimbrel gets $20.

 

what would you offer him this offseason?

[mvp 78]

what would you offer him this offseason?

 

Start at $15x4 and see how far he wants to go. I'd see going $17.5x4 and stopping at that. I'd want him for cheaper though. Maybe more money at shorter years like $20x2? After two years, he'd still be young enough to get another decent payday in FA elsewhere.

[Bellhorn04]

Start at $15x4 and see how far he wants to go. I'd see going $17.5x4 and stopping at that. I'd want him for cheaper though. Maybe more money at shorter years like $20x2? After two years, he'd still be young enough to get another decent payday in FA elsewhere.

 

Maybe one of these new-style deals with opt-outs and other fancy stuff...

[mvp 78]

Maybe one of these new-style deals with opt-outs and other fancy stuff...

 

Lots of bells and whistles.

 

[notin]

But it doesn’t hurt if you want to have a team that wins consistently. I notice that you didn’t address whether You would be pissed if DD has done what Theo did to get Chapman. It is really disingenuous to list Rondon as the Cubs closer.

 

I would be. And because he gave it to the Yankees, I still am...

[sk7326]

Kimbrel? maybe 2 guaranteed years with an option for year 3.

[oldtimer]

Kimbrel? maybe 2 guaranteed years with an option for year 3.

 

I've noticed how Kelly now relies on the same 2 pitches as Kimbrel The 4 seam fastball and the knuckle curve. Kelly throws harder, but may not have as much deception or movement. Having Kimbrel follow Kelly is like oh, here comes more of the same.

[sk7326]

I've noticed how Kelly now relies on the same 2 pitches as Kimbrel The 4 seam fastball and the knuckle curve. Kelly throws harder, but may not have as much deception or movement. Having Kimbrel follow Kelly is like oh, here comes more of the same.

 

For Kelly his fastball is straight and his command is not great. Kimbrel is better at both. And Kimbrel pitches backwards more now.

[Dojji]

Herrera will probably be much cheaper. If Kimbrel's price tag gets too high, they should just grab him.

 

Wouldn't mind Herrera, but if he's cheaper, it won't be by a ton. I have him somewhere in the 5/75 range.

 

Also Herrera, while very talented, isn't quite on the same level as Kimbrel over their careers. They're both good, but Kimbrel's a little better. If you're going to have to pay out of pocket for a closer, you might as well stretch your budget a bit and go for the best one on the market IMHO.

[jacksonianmarch]

Herrera just went down with a shoulder injury. Never a good thing to have as a season draws to a close. The highest paid closer is Davis at $17.3 mil AAV. Kimbrel has been far better than Davis over the 3 seasons he has been in Boston. Also, he will be 2 years younger than Davis was when he signed his contract. Kimbrel turns 31 in May. Chances are, he sees the first relief pitcher contract exceeding $100 mil total value. He is gonna get PAID