Dave Dombrowski

[Dojji]

The highest paid closer this year is Davis at ~17M, but Jansen has already signed a 3 year extension that bumps him to between 18-20 mil for the next 3 years. Kimbrel's agent is going to use that as the negotiating point with the Red Sox

 

I agree that 100 mil is not out of the question if Kimbrel wants 5-6 years.

[Bellhorn04]

Herrera just went down with a shoulder injury. Never a good thing to have as a season draws to a close. The highest paid closer is Davis at $17.3 mil AAV. Kimbrel has been far better than Davis over the 3 seasons he has been in Boston. Also, he will be 2 years younger than Davis was when he signed his contract. Kimbrel turns 31 in May. Chances are, he sees the first relief pitcher contract exceeding $100 mil total value. He is gonna get PAID

 

I'll take the under on $100 mill.

[Dojji]

I will too, but it's not completely out of the realm of possibility.

[Kimmi]

Let's compare bullpen salaries, Cubs vs. Red Sox.

 

Top 5 salaries based on AAV:

 

Cubs

Morrow 10,500,000

Cishek 6,500,000

Strop 5,925,000

Wilson 4,250,000

Duensing 3,200,000

30,375,000

 

Red Sox

Kimbrel 13,000,000

Kelly 3,825,000

Thornburg 2,050,000

Smith 850,000

Barnes 605,000

20,330,000

 

So who's the big bullpen spender? Looks like it's the GOAT.

 

Theo is the GOAT, but he's not infallible.

 

Also, spending bigger does not mean you'll have a better bullpen.

[Dojji]

No, but if internal development is slow, being willing to spend does give you more options in building the best bullpen possible

[Kimmi]

We're not going to be $39M over the luxury tax every year going forward.

 

Tough choices will have to be made, and people better not blame Henry when he finally pulls on the purse strings. Besides, do we really want our team to become like Steinbrenner's Yankees? (Newsflash: we're heading that way right now.)

 

Of course, I'd love to have Kimbrel back, but not at 10+% of our budget. We'll just have to find another way.

 

If we keep Kimbrel, we'll have to let 1-2 other holes go unfilled...holes where someone pitches 100+ IP or gets up 500+ times in a year.

 

 

Well said.

 

There are better ways to spend the team's resources, and there are more efficient ways to build a great bullpen, including a shut down closer.

[Dojji]

Well said.

 

There are better ways to spend the team's resources, and there are more efficient ways to build a great bullpen, including a shut down closer.

There are many ways to build a great bullpen, and for the best bullpen possible you need to be employing all of them

[Kimmi]

Start at $15x4 and see how far he wants to go. I'd see going $17.5x4 and stopping at that. I'd want him for cheaper though. Maybe more money at shorter years like $20x2? After two years, he'd still be young enough to get another decent payday in FA elsewhere.

 

Shuddering at the thought of $15 mil for 4 years.

 

I would much prefer $20 mil @ 2 yrs.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Kimbrel will want too much money. (1) Get the draft pick and spend the first 2-3 draft selections on position players. The Red Sox have some excellent pitching prospects, including Houck, Groome, Mata, and Shawaryn, but they need to strengthen their position prospects. They started doing this in June by taking Casas and Decker but they have more work to do. (2) There will be other options, cheaper options, on the free agent market that won't involve draft compensation, including D.Robertson and Z.Britton. (3) The Red Sox need to resign Eovaldi, a higher priority than Kimbrel IMO, and Eovaldi's price keeps going up and up. The Yankees, who are desperate for starting pitching, will probably chase him too.

 

Relief pitchers are too volatile from year to year and Kimbrel is getting older. The Red Sox have their future closer in Durbin Feltman, what a great pick by Dombrowski, but they need a bridge closer, a guy who can handle the job for one or two seasons.

 

Britton is a guy you might be able to get on a shorter deal, a one or two year deal. With his recent injuries, I don't know if he has a long term, lucrative contract waiting for him. The Yankees will have a hard time resigning Britton--they can't offer him the closer role while the Red Sox can!

Edited August 9, 2018 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Kimmi]

Maybe one of these new-style deals with opt-outs and other fancy stuff...

 

Honestly, I think Kimbrel would like to stay in Boston.

 

Spud brought up a good point about the care his daughter has received, and will likely continue to need, at Boston hospitals.

 

I think Dombrowski could probably come up with something creative.

 

FTR, I am strongly opposed to anything over 3 years, regardless of $ amount.

[Kimmi]

Kimbrel? maybe 2 guaranteed years with an option for year 3.

 

A voice of reason.

[Kimmi]

Seriously, this talk of 5-6 years at close to $100 million for Kimbrel is crazy talk.

 

Absolutely insane.

[Bellhorn04]

Seriously, this talk of 5-6 years at close to $100 million for Kimbrel is crazy talk.

 

Absolutely insane.

 

Well, you can see where it's coming from-Chapman & Jansen's deals.

[Kimmi]

Well, you can see where it's coming from-Chapman & Jansen's deals.

 

I can see where it's coming from.

 

I can also understand why fans are willing to go there.

 

Convince me that it's the right thing or even okay to do? That's a whole different story.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I don't know about 100M for Kimbrel, but I suspect he will get something very close to Chapman level. I wouldn't be surprised if he comes in a little under Chapman (86 million) just because Chapman gives you the impression that he will hold up really well as he gets older--he is a big, strong guy. Kimbrel doesn't give you the same impression. Still, at the very least, you would think he gets offered 70 million by some team.

 

It is worth noting that some of the big market teams won't be involved in the bidding, including the Dodgers and Yankees. Nevertheless, it only takes one team to believe they are a closer away from winning it all to make a significant offer to Kimbrel. I'm not good with closers, but could the following teams be interested: Angels, Phillies, Nationals, Cardinals, Mets?

 

If the market for closers is depressed next year, and the Red Sox can bring Kimbrel back at a team-friendly cost, they should do it. Otherwise, get the draft pick and spend the money elsewhere. Alternatively, if the market is depressed next year, the Red Sox could try to sign Kimbrel to a one year pillow contract, letting him hit free agency again in the following off-season.

Edited August 9, 2018 by Fan_since_Boggs

[notin]

No, but if internal development is slow, being willing to spend does give you more options in building the best bullpen possible

 

But that doesn't mean using all your resources on a closer alone...

[notin]

I don't know about 100M for Kimbrel, but I suspect he will get something very close to Chapman level. I wouldn't be surprised if he comes in a little under Chapman (86 million) just because Chapman gives you the impression that he will hold up really well as he gets older--he is a big, strong guy. Kimbrel doesn't give you the same impression. Still, at the very least, you would think he gets offered 70 million by some team.

 

It is worth noting that some of the big market teams won't be involved in the bidding, including the Dodgers and Yankees. Nevertheless, it only takes one team to believe they are a closer away from winning it all to make a significant offer to Kimbrel. I'm not good with closers, but could the following teams be interested: Angels, Phillies, Nationals, Cardinals, Mets?

 

If the market for closers is depressed next year, and the Red Sox can bring Kimbrel back at a team-friendly cost, they should do it. Otherwise, get the draft pick and spend the money elsewhere. Alternatively, if the market is depressed next year, the Red Sox could try to sign Kimbrel to a one year pillow contract, letting him hit free agency again in the following off-season.

 

Does it even take a big market team? Currently the highest paid closer by AAV is in Colorado.

 

Teams like St. Louis and San Francisco will be in on the bidding as well. And if Washington doesn't bring back Harper, they will have an excess of cash to spend...

[Dojji]

But that doesn't mean using all your resources on a closer alone...

 

No one is suggesting otherwise.

 

However, if you're not prepared to pay what the market will bear, you'd better be a lot better at developing pitching from within than we currently are.

[a700hitter]

Seriously, this talk of 5-6 years at close to $100 million for Kimbrel is crazy talk.

 

Absolutely insane.

But you could understand the rationale behind 5 years $100 million for Sandoval?

[mvp 78]

But you could understand the rationale behind 5 years $100 million for Sandoval?

 

I don't see any Kimbrel winter hats being sold at Fenway, you?

[Slasher9]

OK. it took almost 800 posts in this thread but we finally ALL agree:

- DD eviscerated the Farm

- Ben makes a good cup of coffee (but only because he wants to)

- Closers are overrated by fans and should not be given LTC

[a700hitter]

I don't see any Kimbrel winter hats being sold at Fenway, you?

They are selling ”Kimbrel grow a beard“ kits

[a700hitter]

OK. it took almost 800 posts in this thread but we finally ALL agree:

- DD eviscerated the Farm

- Ben makes a good cup of coffee (but only because he wants to)

- Closers are overrated by fans and should not be given LTC

That about sums it up.

[Spudboy]

Seriously, this talk of 5-6 years at close to $100 million for Kimbrel is crazy talk.

 

Absolutely insane.

 

I agree, of course. It is a massive misappropriation of funds. Just stupid.

 

I'm down with 3 years max. I still say 15-17 mil/yr CAN get it done.

[mvp 78]

They are selling ”Kimbrel grow a beard“ kits

 

Profit margin is much smaller!

[Slasher9]

Profit margin is much smaller!

 

Sad!

[mvp 78]

Sad!

 

How about this: the Boston Space Sox!

[a700hitter]

Profit margin is much smaller!

profit margin would be huge if they could have reused the left over gave hair from last year’s Denis Eckersley hat. Dying it red would have been too expensive.

[Spudboy]

But you could understand the rationale behind 5 years $100 million for Sandoval?

 

I'm still waiting to receive my panda hat from Amazon!

 

That fat f*** is on the DL again, this time for the rest of the season. And the Sox keep paying for his time off!

 

I do wonder why his agent has not secured for him a massive belt endorsement deal. It would have seemed obvious. No need to go on Shark Tank, just self fund and book a bunch of info-mercials for the Panda Power Belt!

 

What a wasted opportunity.

[Maxbialystock]

Right now Kimbrel, Barnes, and Velazquez all have about the same WAR: 1.9, 1.8, and 1.6. Why would DD want to pay a king's ransom for the 1.9 guy?