Who Should the Red Sox Trade For?

[fxkatt]

You're delusional

 

Yes, I agree, esp since it's only 3 in the loss column, and that now the Sox are down to 3 starting pitchers.

 

At the moment and beyond, we go with Velasquez and Johnson. Unless they surprise, we's in trouble.

 

And trouble for us as for the Yanks is that stupid Play-in game.

[kenmeister]

Yes, I agree, esp since it's only 3 in the loss column, and that now the Sox are down to 3 starting pitchers.

 

At the moment and beyond, we go with Velasquez and Johnson. Unless they surprise, we's in trouble.

 

And trouble for us as for the Yanks is that stupid Play-in game.

 

I'm cautiously optimistic that Wright will be back sooner rather than later.

[Spudboy]

Yes, I agree, esp since it's only 3 in the loss column, and that now the Sox are down to 3 starting pitchers.

 

At the moment and beyond, we go with Velasquez and Johnson. Unless they surprise, we's in trouble.

 

And trouble for us as for the Yanks is that stupid Play-in game.

 

This ^^^^

[vegasbob]

It's sad. One year he's great, the next he's gone.

 

Pomeranz is sad, ever look at his facial expressions ? This is deep depression . Not to mention exactly what happened with Porcello over the weekend. Was that a road bump or full truck dump ?

[fxkatt]

I'm cautiously optimistic that Wright will be back sooner rather than later.

 

That would be a boost... because it generally means 2 our of 3 good starts, and one bad. And if he gets back into old form, he could even see a start or two in the playoffs... depending on E-Rod, who will have to learn to walk again after a few weeks in the Boot.

[jacksonianmarch]

I'm cautiously optimistic that Wright will be back sooner rather than later.

 

He’s stuck in a standstill with the same injury Pedroia had

[d-money]

maybe maybe not - they will need more pitchers as they rotate their staff through.

 

I mean right now, there is virtually no chance that EITHER the Sox or Yanks miss the playoffs. I am not sure how much either team will chase the division vs getting healthy for October.

 

 

Winning the division is always the main goal. You don’t want to play in a wildcard playoff game.

[vegasbob]

That would be a boost... because it generally means 2 our of 3 good starts, and one bad. And if he gets back into old form, he could even see a start or two in the playoffs... depending on E-Rod, who will have to learn to walk again after a few weeks in the Boot.

 

I think if anyone of the injured guys could pitch even 5 innings, they would be giving it a try after the break. If you don't see Pom, Wright, Johnson back in the mix during the next week, you will be seeing someone new shortly. Erod is a long issue as the ankle takes a pounding with each pitch.

[fxkatt]

He’s stuck in a standstill with the same injury Pedroia had

 

"He'll have good days and then he takes a few steps back," Cora said (yesterday). Not too encouraging... even should he come back.

[fxkatt]

If we have to trade for a pitcher, our first concern is that he be Injury-Proof.

[jacksonianmarch]

"He'll have good days and then he takes a few steps back," Cora said (yesterday). Not too encouraging... even should he come back.

 

Same with Pedroia. Both have arthritic knees. They won’t get better, they just have to learn to deal with them

[fxkatt]

One thing for sure.. if the Yanks trade for either Bumgarner or Fulmer, we will then have to make a move. No decision-making would be necessary. Damn that first-base collision.

[Emp9]

That would be a boost... because it generally means 2 our of 3 good starts, and one bad. And if he gets back into old form, he could even see a start or two in the playoffs... depending on E-Rod, who will have to learn to walk again after a few weeks in the Boot.

 

The thing I worry about w/ ERod is, is the affect of his mechanics and most notably, his knee going forward because of his ankle injury. Put a different way, I’d hate to see his ankle injury snowball into something else because of it. That’s my longterm worry. Not saying it will but... fingers crossed.

[harmony]

In June 2017 Seattle shortstop Jean Segura was one-plus years away from free agency when the 2018 All Star signed a five-year, $70 million extension with the Mariners with a $17 million team option for a sixth year.

 

Boston shortstop Xander Bogaerts, who is two-and-a-half years younger than Segura, is one-plus years away from free agency.

 

Segura has posted 15.0 fWAR in 844 career games, including 3.1 fWAR and 2.9 bWAR in 87 games this season. Segura had posted about 11 fWAR in 675 games when he signed the extension in June 2017.

 

Bogaerts has posted 15.9 fWAR in 699 games, including 2.9 fWAR and 2.0 bWAR in 76 games this season.

 

Bogaerts and Segura each had a monster 2016 season. Since the start of that season, Bogaerts has posted 11.1 fWAR in 381 games while Segura has posted 11.1 fWAR in 365 games:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=&rost=&age=&filter=&players=

 

I doubt Bogaerts and agent Scott Boras will agree to an extension, certainly not a five-year, $70 million extension.

FanGraphs has started releasing its annual midseason rankings of trade value:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-trade-value-41-to-50/

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-trade-value-honorable-mentions/

 

Whereas Xander Bogaerts has slipped from No. 45 last year to honorable mention this year, Seattle shortstop Jean Segura sneaks into the rankings at No. 49.

 

For a year now I have found the comp of Bogaerts and Segura interesting (probably more interesting than most fans).

 

Bogaerts remains under team control only through next season working off his 2018 salary of $7.05 million.

 

Segura is owed about $61 million on his contract that runs through four more seasons with a team option of $17 million, or a $1 million buyout, for an additional year in 2023.

 

Bogaerts and Segura each had a monster 2016 season. Since the start of that season, Bogaerts has posted 11.3 fWAR in 384 games while Segura has posted 11.1 fWAR in 368 games:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=&rost=&age=&filter=&players=

 

In 2016 Segura played second base and was deprived fWAR's favorable position adjustment for a shortstop.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/library/war/war-position-players/

 

A trade of Bogaerts for Segura would never occur but I suspect neither team would trade its current asset for the other shortstop.

[Kimmi]

maybe maybe not - they will need more pitchers as they rotate their staff through.

 

I mean right now, there is virtually no chance that EITHER the Sox or Yanks miss the playoffs. I am not sure how much either team will chase the division vs getting healthy for October.

 

Before the 2nd wildcard was added to the playoffs, I would have said health is definitely more important than winning the division. With the one game playoff for the wildcard teams, I think chasing the division is more important.

[Kimmi]

I think if anyone of the injured guys could pitch even 5 innings, they would be giving it a try after the break. If you don't see Pom, Wright, Johnson back in the mix during the next week, you will be seeing someone new shortly. Erod is a long issue as the ankle takes a pounding with each pitch.

 

Maybe Dombrowski adds a couple of solid relievers and we go with a BP day, like the Rays. Sale, Price, and Porcello are usually pretty good at going deep into games. If Johnson can hold down the #4 spot, then Pom on a short leash, followed by the BP could be an option for the #5 spot.

[Spudboy]

I'd be fine with that to cover the 5 slot only if E-Rod were healthy.

[fxkatt]

Before the 2nd wildcard was added to the playoffs, I would have said health is definitely more important than winning the division. With the one game playoff for the wildcard teams, I think chasing the division is more important.

 

It's very possible that a 104-win team will be facing an 88-win team this year in that Play-in game. This is one reason why neither the Sox nor Yanks are giving an inch during the regular season, and why both are having amazing seasons.

 

This pressure will not lessen until one has more or less secured the top spot and then the loser will have the advantage of resting either Chris Sale or Luis Severino. If it goes down to the final weekend in Boston, then Sale or Severino would miss the Play-in game... which could easily mean disaster. But even a win in the Play-in game with Sale or Sev, means being at a distinct disadvantage in the semi-finals.

[a700hitter]

It's very possible that a 104-win team will be facing an 88-win team this year in that Play-in game. This is one reason why neither the Sox nor Yanks are giving an inch during the regular season, and why both are having amazing seasons.

 

This pressure will not lessen until one has more or less secured the top spot and then the loser will have the advantage of resting either Chris Sale or Luis Severino. If it goes down to the final weekend in Boston, then Sale or Severino would miss the Play-in game... which could easily mean disaster. But even a win in the Play-in game with Sale or Sev, means being at a distinct disadvantage in the semi-finals.

That would be crazy if a 104 win team was a Wild Card team, but I don't see that happening.

[d-money]

What about a guy like Zack Wheeler from the Mets? Wouldn’t have to give up a lot

[Slasher9]

But Wright and Pom aren’t healthy

 

And we still have better starting pitching then any ALE team.....

[Slasher9]

It's sad. One year he's great, the next he's gone.

 

Not really. He’s a RP with 2 pitches. Now that the league has seen him he’s exposed. He’s exactly what he is. Unfortunately DD had zero clue....

[notin]

What about a guy like Zack Wheeler from the Mets? Wouldn’t have to give up a lot

 

What makes people think Zack Wheeler will be so cheap? Think that the Mets held on to this guy through injury-plagued and missed seasons just to guarantee being able to trade him for a pile of dirt?

[oldtimer]

Chances are nothing will be announced before completion of the AS Game so as not to detract from the importance of it. After that, expect the trades to be announced with many in the offing. DD has been working so something is probably in the cards now.

[jacksonianmarch]

The Phils are willing to part with top 100 prospect Adonis Medina. They’ll land Machado on Wednesday.

 

Also, the comparisons of Xander and Segura are apt in terms of WAR but not realistic in terms of progression with age. Speedsters don’t get the biggest contracts and A huge part of Segura’s game is speed. Bogaerts is coming into his own in the power department. He’ll age better than Segura and Boras knows it. Bogaerts also said he’s fine with going year to year. Now healthy, he’s poised to make significant bank in arbitration for the final time through. Bogey is on pace for a 6+ WAR season. If he produces like this for this year and next, he’ll end up getting a Machado style FA contract.

[harmony]

The Phils are willing to part with top 100 prospect Adonis Medina. They’ll land Machado on Wednesday.

 

Also, the comparisons of Xander and Segura are apt in terms of WAR but not realistic in terms of progression with age. Speedsters don’t get the biggest contracts and A huge part of Segura’s game is speed. Bogaerts is coming into his own in the power department. He’ll age better than Segura and Boras knows it. Bogaerts also said he’s fine with going year to year. Now healthy, he’s poised to make significant bank in arbitration for the final time through. Bogey is on pace for a 6+ WAR season. If he produces like this for this year and next, he’ll end up getting a Machado style FA contract.

Which may explain why Xander Bogaerts trails Jean Segura in trade value.

 

Then again Bogaerts has posted only 16.1 fWAR in 702 games while Manny Machado, who is only three months older than Bogaerts, has posted 27.7 fWAR in 860 games.

 

And to be precise, neither Bogaerts nor Segura is on pace for a 6 WAR season.

Edited July 17, 2018 by harmony

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

On another thread I posted that as of today our starting staff was the following:

Sale

Hope

Hope

Hope

Hope

 

The four Hopes are 1)Price pitches the rest of the season as if he's worth at least half his contract; 2)Porcello bounces back after a terrible start; 3)E-rod comes back sooner rather than later; and 4)Wright also comes back soon, or DD can try to find another starter. I believe POR will rebound, however the other 3 Hopes are going to be tough to achieve. After a storybook 1st 98 games, let's Hope this book has a happy ending.

[sk7326]

Before the 2nd wildcard was added to the playoffs, I would have said health is definitely more important than winning the division. With the one game playoff for the wildcard teams, I think chasing the division is more important.

 

I think they will chase hard for the most part. But I don't think you will see, say, the Red Sox change their "Sale preservation schedule" (to the degree they have one) to win the division. I think both teams will still be careful with guys they want to rest for medical reasons.

[Bellhorn04]

And to be precise, neither Bogaerts nor Segura is on pace for a 6 WAR season.

 

Bogaerts has a 3.2 fWAR in 79 games. If you project that to 150 games it's 6.1. He is playing at a 6 WAR level. How much precision are you looking for?

[harmony]

Bogaerts has a 3.2 fWAR in 79 games. If you project that to 150 games it's 6.1. He is playing at a 6 WAR level. How much precision are you looking for?

The Red Sox have only 64 games remaining so Xander Bogaerts will play a maximum of 143 games. In the unlikely event Xander Bogaerts plays all 64 games and maintains his per/game WAR rate, he will finish just shy of 5.9 fWAR.