A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[moonslav59]

If Vaz/Leon start to hit and Pedey takes over 2b full time, I think the hand-wringing about JBJ goes away.

 

Agreed. BTW, I'm not all that worried about JBJ, Vaz or Nunez right now.

 

Ask me again at the end of June.

[mvp 78]

Agreed. BTW, I'm not all that worried about JBJ, Vaz or Nunez right now.

 

Ask me again at the end of June.

 

I do my judging on Memorial Day.

[oldtimer]

Not worried about Jackie at all. He's steaky, we all get that. If he's regressed, he's still a rock solid 4th OF and we can assemble a hell of an outfield without him. I don't see any reason to be all that alarmed.

 

Personally I think he catches fire in June and July and carries the team for a month and a half like he does every year, and the skeptics get to spend the middle of the season eating their words before the annual September slump

 

It possible you are right about your view, however, it is equally possible that he continues to hit poorly throughout the season, or as long as Cora can tolerate poor performance. If that is what happens and we wind up losing enough games we might otherwise have won, then we are jeapordizing our standing at the end of the season. That argument can be made for any slumping player and particularly for those where we see no showing signs of improvement.

 

When is a player in decline such that past performance no longer is a sign of future results. Tough question, but I am in favor of taking corrective action instead of bemoaning what might have been later in the season.

[kenmeister]

If everyone else on the team was hitting over .300, and JBJ was hitting .175, there would still be piles of posts about what to do with JBJ.

 

If JBJ can't catch up to a major league fastball, he'll get closer and closer to .100, not .175.

[Bellhorn04]

If JBJ can't catch up to a major league fastball, he'll get closer and closer to .100, not .175.

 

Bradley singled off an Aroldis Chapman 97.2 MPH fastball back on April 11.

 

I refuse to believe his bat speed has declined so much since then that he can no longer catch up to a 92 MPH fastball.

 

It's got to be mechanics, timing. Not loss of bat speed.

[moonslav59]

I do my judging on Memorial Day.

 

I guess that's better than may 1st or earlier.

 

Here's a look at 1st half-second half splits, which is waiting until after Memorial Day:

 

1st half/ second half

841>754 Betts

803>745 Beni

806>671 Bogey

793>736 Moreland

794>694 HRam

853>579 JBJ

660>812 Vaz

 

Maybe JBJ flips the splits this year: maybe not.

 

It looks to me, like not many players are consistent from 1st to 2nd half.

 

If we traded or DFA'd everyone for having a bad 2-3 months, we might not have anyone left on the roster.

[Kimmi]

We have a slumping player batting third in the order. He is 35 years old and by all means a good clubhouse presence. What I have noticed is that he is having more trouble getting around on the fastball these days. Cora can stay with him but maybe a better choice is to give him additional rest with Moreland playing well. If he is n the decline due to his age, regular extra rest may be what is needed to get him back to being a solid contributor when he does play.

 

I am actually surprised Hanley has played as much as he has. I agree that for him in particular, regular rest would be beneficial.

 

It seems that Hanley needs to still be reminded not to swing for the fences every pitch.

[oldtimer]

I am actually surprised Hanley has played as much as he has. I agree that for him in particular, regular rest would be beneficial.

 

It seems that Hanley needs to still be reminded not to swing for the fences every pitch.

 

We have coaches who you would think would work with slumping hitters. No doubt they do, however, some are receptive while others don't seem to adjust.

 

I am hoping and I do believe am seeing some small adjustments in Devers. He has the tools to be a better hitter but needs to be coached into plate discipline and learning the strike zone.

[notin]

I am actually surprised Hanley has played as much as he has. I agree that for him in particular, regular rest would be beneficial.

 

It seems that Hanley needs to still be reminded not to swing for the fences every pitch.

 

Hanley might play less of Bradley were hitting better. But Moreland can only sub for one of them at a time...

[notin]

We have coaches who you would think would work with slumping hitters. No doubt they do, however, some are receptive while others don't seem to adjust.

 

I am hoping and I do believe am seeing some small adjustments in Devers. He has the tools to be a better hitter but needs to be coached into plate discipline and learning the strike zone.

 

Not every slump can be coached out of.

 

and plate disciline is especially tough. If a player doesn't have it by the time he reaches MLB, he isn't very likely to ever get it. Many players have tried to improve their plate discipline at this stage. Most of them simply wind up taking more pitches, which not only isn't the same, but can also be very detrimental to the hitter...

[moonslav59]

Hanley might play less of Bradley were hitting better. But Moreland can only sub for one of them at a time...

 

Well, thanks to some HBPs and BBs, JBJ has gotten on base more than HRam over the last 14 days:

 

.

OBP

.280 JBJ

.267 Nunez

.224 HRam

.224 Devers

.194 Vaz

 

[oldtimer]

Well, thanks to some HBPs and BBs, JBJ has gotten on base more than HRam over the last 14 days:

 

.

OBP

.280 JBJ

.267 Nunez

.224 HRam

.224 Devers

.194 Vaz

 

 

Funny thing but of course Hanley is not getting on much at all so it is not saying a lot.

[jacksonianmarch]

If Bradley hits, all your problems go away. Hanley gets relegated to a backup role and his option doesn’t vest while Your OF defense is improved.

[S5Dewey]

If Bradley hits, all your problems go away. Hanley gets relegated to a backup role and his option doesn’t vest while Your OF defense is improved.

 

No s***, Mr. Obvious!! LOL

[moonslav59]

Funny thing but of course Hanley is not getting on much at all so it is not saying a lot.

 

Yes, but mostly we are hearing about JBJ & Vaz.

 

People have quieted down on Leon thanks to a tiny sample size of recent success.

[moonslav59]

If Bradley hits, all your problems go away. Hanley gets relegated to a backup role and his option doesn’t vest while Your OF defense is improved.

 

Or, if HRam keeps getting on base at a .225 clip, we play JBJ anyways, and HRam does not vest.

[jacksonianmarch]

Well, if JBJ and Hanley don't hit at all going forward, you'll end up making a deal for a DH type so you can lengthen your lineup. You cannot continue to have 3 black holes in your lineup

[moonslav59]

Sox UZR/150 Numbers (50+ innings)

 

21.1 JBJ RF

17.7 Betts RF

10.6 Moreland 1B

7.4 HRam 1B

6.2 JBJ CF

4.1 Holt 2B

2.9 Lin SS

2.1 Holt SS

0.7 Bogey SS

-0.3 Beni LF

-2.5 Devers 3B

-2.9 Nunez 2B

-5.9 Beni CF

-11.2 JD LF

 

DEF

2.0 JBJ

1.9 Betts

1.5 Vaz

1.5 Bogey

1.4 Holt

0.7 Nunez

0.5 Lin

0.2 Leon

-0.1 Devers

-0.5 Swihart

-0.6 Moreland

-1.8 Beni

-3.0 HRam

-6.2 JMart

'

 

 

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

Well, if JBJ and Hanley don't hit at all going forward, you'll end up making a deal for a DH type so you can lengthen your lineup. You cannot continue to have 3 black holes in your lineup

 

We already have Moreland to step in for Hanley.

[notin]

Well, if JBJ and Hanley don't hit at all going forward, you'll end up making a deal for a DH type so you can lengthen your lineup. You cannot continue to have 3 black holes in your lineup

 

Why would the Sox need a DH? Is JD Martinez going to retire?

 

If Hanley struggles, Moreland plays more. Seems pretty simple to me...

[kenmeister]

Why would the Sox need a DH? Is JD Martinez going to retire?

 

If Hanley struggles, Moreland plays more. Seems pretty simple to me...

 

Assuming Hanley's option doesn't vest, the Sox should have some cash freeing up for 2019. I hope they bring Andrew Miller back.

[moonslav59]

Why would the Sox need a DH? Is JD Martinez going to retire?

 

If Hanley struggles, Moreland plays more. Seems pretty simple to me...

 

Yes. But if JBJ is benched and JMart DH's then we'd need Nunez or Swihart to play LF.

 

If JBJ and HRam are benched...

 

C- Vaz/ Leon

1B- Moreland (HRam)

2B- Pedey (Nunez)

3B- Devers (Nunez)

SS- Bogey (Holt)

LF- Nunez/Swihart (JMart/Beni)

CF- Beni (JBJ)

RF- Betts

DH- JMart (HRam)

 

HRam or JBJ will likely be in the line-up every game going forward.

 

 

[moonslav59]

Assuming Hanley's option doesn't vest, the Sox should have some cash freeing up for 2019. I hope they bring Andrew Miller back.

 

Not true. HRam not vesting pays the arb raises with maybe a little left over.

 

Plus, we have Kimbrel, Pom & Kelly to re-sign (at a higher cost) or replace.

[kenmeister]

Not true. HRam not vesting pays the arb raises with maybe a little left over.

 

Plus, we have Kimbrel, Pom & Kelly to re-sign (at a higher cost) or replace.

 

True, although I think letting Pomeranz go is fine by me. I'd like to see Velazquez starting.

[moonslav59]

True, although I think letting Pomeranz go is fine by me. I'd like to see Velazquez starting.

 

Pom may very well be the odd man out.

 

Kimbrel will be very costly and may go as well.

 

We'll sign somebody, if we lose both of them.

 

Kelly may be back.

[jacksonianmarch]

If Kelly keeps pitching like this, he’s staring at a deal close to or at 8 figures annually. Kimbrel might end up the first reliever to see an AAV of $20 mil. If Hanley’s option doesn’t vest, then his $22 mil is up for grabs per se. Pom and Kimbrel are making $21 mil right now and I’m assuming that gets eaten with arb raises. If Hanley goes away, you can afford either Kelly or Kimbrel, but not both.

[Hitch]

Bradley singled off an Aroldis Chapman 97.2 MPH fastball back on April 11.

 

I refuse to believe his bat speed has declined so much since then that he can no longer catch up to a 92 MPH fastball.

 

It's got to be mechanics, timing. Not loss of bat speed.

 

A one off hit proves or disproves nothing, though.

 

He's struggling like crazy to catch up to the fast ball. That much is absolutely crystal clear. It's painful watching him hacking out there. His swing looks way too long to me.

 

Hard to know if it's bat speed or mechanics, but I'd certainly start by shortening his swing.

[moonslav59]

His swing has always been on the "long side" of the norm, but he has managed to end up with a respectable OPS for 3 straight seasons.

 

From 2015 to 2017 his OPS was .793, which placed 30th out of 87 OF'ers with 1000+ PAs.

 

Clearly, he does not look like the hitter he was those 3 years, but during his long cold streaks in those years, he did look this bad, so I'm not sure what to make of this extended cold streak that goes back into last year.

 

I still think he's got a hot streak or two in him this year.

 

We'll see.

 

[jacksonianmarch]

It’s mechanics. Bradley just needs to be smart enough to realize it. A simple drop in the hands or slight delay in triggering will cause you to go from on time to late on good fastballs. It’s all mechanical. He just has shown a stubbornness to the media to adjust.

[illinoisredsox]

A one off hit proves or disproves nothing, though.

 

He's struggling like crazy to catch up to the fast ball. That much is absolutely crystal clear. It's painful watching him hacking out there. His swing looks way too long to me.

 

Hard to know if it's bat speed or mechanics, but I'd certainly start by shortening his swing.

 

Bradley somehow has a career slashline against Chapman of .667/.857/1.524 in 7 PAs. Chapman has gotten him out 1 time. Ever. Tis a very strange game, baseball.