A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[Larry Cook]

I can not see mookie signing a ten year deal unless he has outs every other year in it.

[oldtimer]

Changing the subject away from Betts and to that old saw, good pitching beats good hitting. What we are seeing today is teams that develop or stockpile a pitching staff with a number of starters who can throw at least 3 quality pitches and can go through a lineup up to three times while remainning effective. That means probably at least 6 innings and better if 7 or more. Starters now often are only achieving 5+ and have learned to nibble to avoid the great power so many hitters have these days. In addition to the starters, many BP's have multiple relievers who throw in the high 90's and these guys come in for an inning so the hitter only sees them once. Hitters are at a disadvantage for sure and when two good staffs face each other we can expect low scoring games.

 

Now some teams can back up their pitching with outstanding defense. That causes further issues for hitters. Rare teams have it all, good pitching, good defense and solid hitting. I am thinking of the Astros here.

 

So the Sox have been facing the Rays who are a decent team and our hitters have been held more in check, but we shouldn't be too critical of them since it is very difficult to score. We just hope to get enough batted balls in play, draw enough walks and have our own pitching staff come with good performances and to date we have. The Rays have blinked first and a pitcher had issues and the defense made critical errors. Playing a team like theirs is a game with little margin for error.

 

Knowing that, it is imperitive for us to put our best lineups in to enhance our chance of winning. We know we have problems at the bottom of the order with the catcher and JB J not likely to produce much although last night the hitting almost all came from the bottom of the order. The number 3 hold with Rameriz has also turned cold and as a result the opportunities our table setters gave us were lost. Hanley has gone into a slump, and whether he needs a rest or it is symptoms of his slowing down is immaterial. The point is we had a solid lefty who is also a quality first baseman on the bench who offered us a good alternative where in the 3 hole or with others moved around. Cora didn't choose to go that way and it didn't work out well. No way to know if Moreland would have been better but I believe there was a high probability that Hanley would not produce last night. We were fortunate that the Rays made critical errors and that Bogie came through to avoid what could easily have been a loss.

 

We need Hanley to return to his April form and we think he is healthy this year. He is doing a decent job defensively at 1st. The smart move still may to give him more rest and see what happens.

[Maxbialystock]

Back to A Realistic View of 2018, Part II.

 

In the Sox most recent 10 wins, the other team has not scored more than four runs. During that "run," the Sox W-L has been 10-6, which is .625 and below the Sox winning percentage for the year. However, .625 would lead to 101 wins, which I think most of us would consider a very good season. In the three seasons--2004, 2007,2013--the Sox won it all they won 98, 96, and 97 games in the regular season.

 

It could be that these 16 most recent games are the template that best suits this year's Sox, specifically, that pitching is pretty important. Right now the Sox have the 2d best team ERA in the AL, but 9th best in MLB.

 

At the same time, the Sox also have the second best hitting--runs scored and/or OPS--in the AL and in MLB. In the three WS seasons of 2004, 2007, and 2013, the Sox led MLB in scoring in 2004 and 2013 and were 4th in 2007. Their team ERA in those three seasons were 3d in the AL in 2004, 1st in the AL in 2007, and 6th in the AL in 2013. However, the Sox postseason ERA in 2013 was the lowest, 2.59, in MLB.

 

Hitting and pitching aside, I am always more interested in how well the Sox play specific teams, especially the good ones. We are 3-3 vs. the Yankees. Very shortly we go to Houston and play 4. Houston has the best run differential, +110, in MLB and the best pitching in MLB. Even sooner, the NL East leaders, Atlanta, come to town and play 3.

 

OK, now back to the far more important topic of whether the Sox re-sign Mookie Betts.

[Bellhorn04]

10 years - 290 and you have your franchise player locked up. Do it - Do it Mr. Holmes!

 

OK, I'll bite...why Mr. Holmes?

[cp176]

OK, I'll bite...why Mr. Holmes?

 

My God - I've been waiting forever! Captain Holmes had to make some tough decisions in the North Atlantic once upon a time. An overcrowded lifeboat wasn't going to be able to make it. In order to save most, some had to go. Holmes made the decisions and had to live with the after shock. It was a classic movie that I can't even recall the name of now but I showed it every year in my History and English classes usually in September. At the beginning of the school year, we spent a great deal of time talking about the importance of values and which we emphasized the most. We had some absolutely great discussions as a result of this movie. Captain Holmes was encouraged by some on the lifeboat to "do it" and he did. Doesn't have much to do with baseball I guess but it is a movie that certainly left a lasting impression. Based on a true story. An old VHS tape back in the day. Thanks for asking! You probably wish that you hadn't though. lol

[mvp 78]

Sinking and rescue

Under the command of Captain George Harris, the ship departed from Liverpool on March 18, 1841 for Philadelphia with 17 seamen and 65 passengers, mostly poor Scottish and Irish emigrants. At about 10 p.m. on the night of April 19, William Brown struck an iceberg 250 miles (400 km) southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland and sank. The captain, eight seamen, and one passenger made it to the jolly boat (to be picked up six days later by a French fishing vessel), while nine crewmen and 32 passengers occupied the longboat. One person had died earlier on the voyage, and 31 passengers, many of them children, went down with the ship.[1]

 

Before the two boats parted ways to increase their chances of being found, Captain Harris placed the first mate, Francis Rhodes, in charge of the crowded, leaking longboat. At about 10 p.m., 24 hours after the sinking, the wind picked up, sending water over the longboat's gunwales, and it began to rain heavily. The first mate shouted, "This . . . won't do. Help me, God. Men, go to work."[1] When the crewmen did nothing, he stated, "Men, you must go to work, or we shall all perish."[1][2] Then, the seamen, among them Alexander Holmes, forced 12 men out of the boat. Two women also went into the frigid water, though they may have voluntarily followed their brother, Frank Askin. Early the next morning, two men were found to be hiding and were also jettisoned. All of the male passengers, except for two married men and a young boy, had been sacrificed,[1] while all of the crewmen remained aboard. Later that day, the survivors were picked up by the American ship Crescent and taken to Havre de Grâce, Seine-Maritime, France.[3]

 

Trial

When some of the passengers finally reached their destination of Philadelphia, they filed a complaint with the District Attorney. Holmes was the only crewman to be found in the city, so he was the only one charged. He was accused of murdering Frank Askin. A grand jury before Supreme Court Justice Henry Baldwin refused to indict him on that charge, so it was reduced to manslaughter. In the case of United States v. Holmes, the defendant was found guilty and sentenced to six months in jail and a $20 fine.[2] None of the other crewmen were ever brought to trial.

 

Films

The 1937 film Souls at Sea, with Gary Cooper, George Raft, and Henry Wilcoxon, is somewhat based on the disaster, changing the cause of it to a fire accidentally set by a little girl. A story involving abolitionists against the slave trade is involved, but the conclusion has Cooper's character forced to jettison passengers out of the overcrowded lifeboat, and facing a trial for murder as a result.

 

The 1957 film Seven Waves Away (renamed Abandon Ship! in the USA), was also loosely based on the incident, with Tyrone Power starring as "Alec Holmes".

 

A 1975 made-for-television version, The Last Survivors, featured Martin Sheen.

[cp176]

My God - I've been waiting forever! Captain Holmes had to make some tough decisions in the North Atlantic once upon a time. An overcrowded lifeboat wasn't going to be able to make it. In order to save most, some had to go. Holmes made the decisions and had to live with the after shock. It was a classic movie that I can't even recall the name of now but I showed it every year in my History and English classes usually in September. At the beginning of the school year, we spent a great deal of time talking about the importance of values and which we emphasized the most. We had some absolutely great discussions as a result of this movie. Captain Holmes was encouraged by some on the lifeboat to "do it" and he did. Doesn't have much to do with baseball I guess but it is a movie that certainly left a lasting impression. Based on a true story. An old VHS tape back in the day. Thanks for asking! You probably wish that you hadn't though. lol

 

Hey this internet stuff is amazing. Just checked my powers of recall all by myself. I didn't do too badly. the event actually happened in the mid 19 th century. The 1975 film - The last Survivors was loosely based on the event so it seems. That was probably the one. good film.

[cp176]

Sinking and rescue

Under the command of Captain George Harris, the ship departed from Liverpool on March 18, 1841 for Philadelphia with 17 seamen and 65 passengers, mostly poor Scottish and Irish emigrants. At about 10 p.m. on the night of April 19, William Brown struck an iceberg 250 miles (400 km) southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland and sank. The captain, eight seamen, and one passenger made it to the jolly boat (to be picked up six days later by a French fishing vessel), while nine crewmen and 32 passengers occupied the longboat. One person had died earlier on the voyage, and 31 passengers, many of them children, went down with the ship.[1]

 

Before the two boats parted ways to increase their chances of being found, Captain Harris placed the first mate, Francis Rhodes, in charge of the crowded, leaking longboat. At about 10 p.m., 24 hours after the sinking, the wind picked up, sending water over the longboat's gunwales, and it began to rain heavily. The first mate shouted, "This . . . won't do. Help me, God. Men, go to work."[1] When the crewmen did nothing, he stated, "Men, you must go to work, or we shall all perish."[1][2] Then, the seamen, among them Alexander Holmes, forced 12 men out of the boat. Two women also went into the frigid water, though they may have voluntarily followed their brother, Frank Askin. Early the next morning, two men were found to be hiding and were also jettisoned. All of the male passengers, except for two married men and a young boy, had been sacrificed,[1] while all of the crewmen remained aboard. Later that day, the survivors were picked up by the American ship Crescent and taken to Havre de Grâce, Seine-Maritime, France.[3]

 

Trial

When some of the passengers finally reached their destination of Philadelphia, they filed a complaint with the District Attorney. Holmes was the only crewman to be found in the city, so he was the only one charged. He was accused of murdering Frank Askin. A grand jury before Supreme Court Justice Henry Baldwin refused to indict him on that charge, so it was reduced to manslaughter. In the case of United States v. Holmes, the defendant was found guilty and sentenced to six months in jail and a $20 fine.[2] None of the other crewmen were ever brought to trial.

 

Films

The 1937 film Souls at Sea, with Gary Cooper, George Raft, and Henry Wilcoxon, is somewhat based on the disaster, changing the cause of it to a fire accidentally set by a little girl. A story involving abolitionists against the slave trade is involved, but the conclusion has Cooper's character forced to jettison passengers out of the overcrowded lifeboat, and facing a trial for murder as a result.

 

The 1957 film Seven Waves Away (renamed Abandon Ship! in the USA), was also loosely based on the incident, with Tyrone Power starring as "Alec Holmes".

 

A 1975 made-for-television version, The Last Survivors, featured Martin Sheen.

 

You beat me to the punch again! You young guys are unbelievable.

[cp176]

I guess it is pretty obvious that I don't google much before I post. Might be why some people think that some of what I say is ridiculous. I think I might be fraudulent.

[mvp 78]

You beat me to the punch again! You young guys are unbelievable.

 

Thank you.

[Nick]

I can not see mookie signing a ten year deal unless he has outs every other year in it.

 

I like this idea.......it gives ultimate protection for Betts and others like him. Or go every other year. Injuries, down turn in performance, all protection for the player.

[Nick]

J.D. Freakin Martinez

[Nick]

I'd love to see Machado in our lineup.

 

Price opts outs ($31M), Hanley does not vest ($22M), trade Xander ($7.05M), trade Moreland ($6.5M), let Pom's contract expire ($8.5M), trade JBJ ($6.1M), let Kelly go ($3.825M), trade Holt ($2.225M). Total Savings $87.2M.

 

Trade for Votto ($22.5M), sign Machado and Harper ($66M), sign Kimbrel (additional cost of $5M), total $93.5M. Pablo's $19M will come into play after 2019.

 

Votto decides he wants to play for a winner. Votto for Beni and Moreland (1 year left on contract).

 

Line Up

 

Betts CF

Votto 1B

JD Martinez LF

Harper RF

Machado SS

Devers 3B

Pedroia 2B

Vazquez C

?????? DH Rotate, use Nunez and others to sub in position wise

 

I can dream

 

Of course that's after Sox winning the World Series

Edited May 24, 2018 by Nick

[Station 13]

What about starting pitching, Nick?

[cp176]

What about starting pitching, Nick?

 

With that lineup - just use a pitching machine! lol

[mvp 78]

I'd love to see Machado in our lineup.

 

Price opts outs ($31M), Hanley does not vest ($22M), trade Xander ($7.05M), trade Moreland ($6.5M), let Pom's contract expire ($8.5M), trade JBJ ($6.1M), let Kelly go ($3.825M), trade Holt ($2.225M). Total Savings $87.2M.

 

Trade for Votto ($22.5M), sign Machado and Harper ($66M), sign Kimbrel (additional cost of $5M), total $93.5M. Pablo's $19M will come into play after 2019.

 

Why would Price opt out? It'd be insane for him to.

 

What kind of value does Moreland have via trade?

 

Same with JBJ?

 

Why let your second best bullpen arm go?

 

You don't have the pieces to bring Votto in via trade. If you sign Machado and Harper you're kissing Betts goodbye (who I'd rather have).

[kenmeister]

The thread is titled "a realistic view of 2018". I realistically think the Red Sox, as presently constituted, can win it all. That said, are the right personnel in the right spots? I'd really like to see Velazquez move into the starting rotation. I think Betts should hit third. I have a sneaking suspicion Swihart hasn't been given a fair shake. I suspect Moreland playing every day over Hanley at all is the way to go. Once Pedroia comes back, should 3rd remain Devers, or should Holt move there? Questions like that.

[Bellhorn04]

The thread is titled "a realistic view of 2018". I realistically think the Red Sox, as presently constituted, can win it all. That said, are the right personnel in the right spots? I'd really like to see Velazquez move into the starting rotation. I think Betts should hit third. I have a sneaking suspicion Swihart hasn't been given a fair shake. I suspect Moreland playing every day over Hanley at all is the way to go. Once Pedroia comes back, should 3rd remain Devers, or should Holt move there? Questions like that.

 

Oh, everybody's got their own ideas on how to run things LOL

[mvp 78]

The thread is titled "a realistic view of 2018". I realistically think the Red Sox, as presently constituted, can win it all. That said, are the right personnel in the right spots? I'd really like to see Velazquez move into the starting rotation. I think Betts should hit third. I have a sneaking suspicion Swihart hasn't been given a fair shake. I suspect Moreland playing every day over Hanley at all is the way to go. Once Pedroia comes back, should 3rd remain Devers, or should Holt move there? Questions like that.

 

How would you give Swihart a fair shake moving forward? How would you get Pedroia back onto the roster?

[Station 13]

On the Machado subject, A lot here don't like Machado after his spiking of Pedroia and acting like a little assclown to reporters. But we could really use a young bat with his profile, defense+power. Machado gives us a true middle order presence. Hanley out the picture makes it more attainable.

[jacksonianmarch]

You aren't getting Machado on the FA market, period. There is no way to do so. If Hanley is out of the picture, you have about $22 mil or so to play with below the cap. Machado is staring at $30 mil a season. I doubt Henry allows you to blow past the upper limit

[Maxbialystock]

On the Machado subject, A lot here don't like Machado after his spiking of Pedroia and acting like a little assclown to reporters. But we could really use a young bat with his profile, defense+power. Machado gives us a true middle order presence. Hanley out the picture makes it more attainable.

 

Very good point. This lousy, no good stinking team with the most wins and the best record in MLB is in great need of fixing. This is one more example of fantasy baseball fixation run amuck.

 

The real team, the one I'm rooting for, has flaws, and I like them almost as much as I like Mookie and JD and Sale, etc. I don't want to win this year with Machado. I'm fine with Devers at 3B, Bogie at SS, Pedey/Nunez at 2b, HanRam/Moreland at 1B, etc.

 

I've beat up on JBJ as much as anyone, but rejoice at the thought that just maybe he is getting his swing back. I can't stand Pom, but hope he has a great start Saturday. I don't like HanRam's hair, let along his weak hitting and his inattention on the basepaths, but right now I just want him to start hitting again.

[Bellhorn04]

Machado and Harper are laughable pipe dreams. We've got other tricky matters to attend to. Pitching, keeping Mookie around etc.

[moonslav59]

This is supposed to be a "realistic" thread.

[Kimmi]

Giving him a 10 year deal now puts almost all of the years within a reasonable age frame.

 

He'd be 35 to start his last season of the extension. He could still be great at age 33-35. It's not like the Pujols deal that goes to age 41 with personal services payments going on for another 10 years afterwards..

 

 

A ten year extension from now would not be nearly as bad. That is only like a 7 year deal, and like you said, through age 35.

 

A ten year deal from when he hits free agency would be crazy.

 

Either way, I don't think there will ever come a day where I will approve of giving a player a 10 year deal. I have a hard time with anything over four, though I understand the necessity to sometimes offer more than that.

[Maxbialystock]

This is supposed to be a "realistic" thread.

 

Heck, it isn't even about this year, let alone a realistic view of 2018. It's now about fantasy and what if and maybe and what about.

[oldtimer]

A ten year extension from now would not be nearly as bad. That is only like a 7 year deal, and like you said, through age 35.

 

A ten year deal from when he hits free agency would be crazy.

 

Either way, I don't think there will ever come a day where I will approve of giving a player a 10 year deal. I have a hard time with anything over four, though I understand the necessity to sometimes offer more than that.

 

My thinking on length of deal is that for a young field player who is a star, you might have to offer a longer contract to be competitive. I'm talking about the 25 or 26 year old field player. As the player gets older the length of contract offered should be reduced. So if I would go to 8 to 10 years for a 25 year old field player I would reduce that to 5 years max for a guy approaching 30 and someone 32 it would be 3 years max. If you can't get a guy for that it is better to let them go. In the end the long contract ends badly.

 

In the case of pitchers, I would be even more reluctant to go long. Price is an example of that. He may actually help us this year and possibly another but the long term contract we gave him is highly likely to turn out very badly for us. I can't see going beyond 5 years for any pitcher and for one with a lot of mileage, I would limited it to 3. if you can't sign a guy for that then look elsewhere.

[moonslav59]

A ten year extension from now would not be nearly as bad. That is only like a 7 year deal, and like you said, through age 35.

 

A ten year deal from when he hits free agency would be crazy.

 

Either way, I don't think there will ever come a day where I will approve of giving a player a 10 year deal. I have a hard time with anything over four, though I understand the necessity to sometimes offer more than that.

 

I'd still pay him to age 38 (not as much as 26-35).

 

He seems like the type that will age well.

[Kimmi]

My thinking on length of deal is that for a young field player who is a star, you might have to offer a longer contract to be competitive. I'm talking about the 25 or 26 year old field player. As the player gets older the length of contract offered should be reduced. So if I would go to 8 to 10 years for a 25 year old field player I would reduce that to 5 years max for a guy approaching 30 and someone 32 it would be 3 years max. If you can't get a guy for that it is better to let them go. In the end the long contract ends badly.

 

In the case of pitchers, I would be even more reluctant to go long. Price is an example of that. He may actually help us this year and possibly another but the long term contract we gave him is highly likely to turn out very badly for us. I can't see going beyond 5 years for any pitcher and for one with a lot of mileage, I would limited it to 3. if you can't sign a guy for that then look elsewhere.

 

I completely agree that the older a player is, the fewer number of years you want to give him. I also agree about being more reluctant to give that type of deal to a pitcher than to a position player.

 

If there's a player right now who deserves a 10 year contract, it's absolutely Mookie. I am just not a fan of long term contracts.

[Kimmi]

I'd still pay him to age 38 (not as much as 26-35).

 

He seems like the type that will age well.

 

As I said before, I know that I'm in the minority on this. Most people would give Mookie 10 years and not think twice about it.