Red Sox To Sign J.D. Martinez

[sk7326]

Can we Trade Moreland ??????? Got him cheap

 

Not for anything valuable ... this gives them some really good platoon options there.

 

This core has a couple of years before some decisions have to be made - Martinez clearly will maximize this team's chances to do something special in that time. It's worth the downside risk - even if it comes true in Year 4 of the deal.

Edited February 20, 2018 by sk7326

[harmony]

When Can we Trade Moreland ??????? Got him cheap ...not advocating it just want to know what time period if any is guaranteed ?

Mitch Moreland is guaranteed $13 million, plus performance bonuses, over the next two seasons and as a recently signed free agent cannot be traded without his consent until June 15.

 

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/boston-red-sox/

[iortiz]

MY line up would be

 

Núñez

Benny boy

Mookie

JD

Hanley

Devers

Xander

Vázquez

JBJ

[Emp9]

Well, June 15th IT IS then lol

[Emp9]

Adding JD, this team’s potential is just f***ing insane to me right now. I’m not going to worry about playing time (until Pedey gets back), or trades. Not worring about the batting order, or team payroll. I’m finally starting to get excited about a new season of baseball. It’s a great signing. Let the chips fall where they may.

[Emp9]

Not for anything valuable ... this gives them some really good platoon options there.

 

This core has a couple of years before some decisions have to be made -Martinez clearly will maximize this team's chances to do something special in that time. It's worth the downside risk - even if it comes true in Year 4 of the deal.

 

 

That’s the big take-away for me too.

[jacksonianmarch]

So it’s a 25-25-20-20-20. The opt outs are intriguing. He turns 31 this summer. He turns 32 next summer. If he opts out, he’ll be hitting free agency as a 32 yr old DH. That being said, he gets away from the Uber FA season which is next year. His market will be interesting should he produce. His comp would be EE and he’d have an EE contract at that point although he’d hit the market again 2 years younger. This isn’t the albatross most expected, but if he is injured or ineffective and stays on with Boston, then his contract will be problematic in terms of keeping the band together.

 

That being said, this contract will be the norm going forward. Owners will cede length for player flexibility and they’ll offer higher AAV’s early on with the hopes of lowering the AAV for lux tax purposes. My anticipation is that this deal ends up being a 2 yr $50 mil deal. But with the $110/5 model, it’ll be $22 mil against the lux tax which saves the sox $3 mil vs the cap. This is similar to the Nunez deal which is really a 1 yr $6 mil deal, but it looks like a 1 yr $4 mil deal on the books. DD brought in Nunez and JD for $26 mil against the books for 2018 and in kind saved $5 mil against the cap with smart math. I think you’ll see this for Machado and Harper next year. I have predicted a Harper contract of 10 yr $300 mil, but a massive 3-4 yr front load and an opt out. No team, not even NY or LA can afford to have 1/5 their lux cap spent on one player, but they can outlay that money and drop the lux tax hit with sham long term contracts that are shorter term, higher money deals.

[Bellhorn04]

So it’s a 25-25-20-20-20. The opt outs are intriguing. He turns 31 this summer. He turns 32 next summer. If he opts out, he’ll be hitting free agency as a 32 yr old DH. That being said, he gets away from the Uber FA season which is next year. His market will be interesting should he produce. His comp would be EE and he’d have an EE contract at that point although he’d hit the market again 2 years younger. This isn’t the albatross most expected, but if he is injured or ineffective and stays on with Boston, then his contract will be problematic in terms of keeping the band together.

 

That being said, this contract will be the norm going forward. Owners will cede length for player flexibility and they’ll offer higher AAV’s early on with the hopes of lowering the AAV for lux tax purposes. My anticipation is that this deal ends up being a 2 yr $50 mil deal. But with the $110/5 model, it’ll be $22 mil against the lux tax which saves the sox $3 mil vs the cap. This is similar to the Nunez deal which is really a 1 yr $6 mil deal, but it looks like a 1 yr $4 mil deal on the books. DD brought in Nunez and JD for $26 mil against the books for 2018 and in kind saved $5 mil against the cap with smart math. I think you’ll see this for Machado and Harper next year. I have predicted a Harper contract of 10 yr $300 mil, but a massive 3-4 yr front load and an opt out. No team, not even NY or LA can afford to have 1/5 their lux cap spent on one player, but they can outlay that money and drop the lux tax hit with sham long term contracts that are shorter term, higher money deals.

 

I think 'sham' might be a little strong of a word. Obviously MLB will allow these types of contracts as long as they're not totally unreasonable. It's not really a big deal if a team is able to trim a little off their luxury tax number - or defer a little into the following year as with the Nunez deal.

[moonslav59]

MY line up would be

 

Núñez

Benny boy

Mookie

JD

Hanley

Devers

Xander

Vázquez

JBJ

 

I'd flip Devers & HRam amd JBJ and Vaz.

[Nick]

Adding JD, this team’s potential is just f***ing insane to me right now. I’m not going to worry about playing time (until Pedey gets back), or trades. Not worring about the batting order, or team payroll. I’m finally starting to get excited about a new season of baseball. It’s a great signing. Let the chips fall where they may.

 

It now becomes a must see TV. Solid starting line-up daily.

 

Pitching rotation of Price, Sale, Pom, Porcello and E Rod (at some point). I just hope Porcello gets the run support he did two years ago. He may need it.

 

It's worth every bit of $100!!!!!!!!

[Bellhorn04]

Mookie is hitting leadoff to start the season, we already know that.

[Natick to NC]

Mitch Moreland is guaranteed $13 million, plus performance bonuses, over the next two seasons and as a recently signed free agent cannot be traded without his consent until June 15.

 

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/boston-red-sox/

 

Thankyou Harmony

[moonslav59]

So it’s a 25-25-20-20-20. The opt outs are intriguing....

 

No, it's...

 

$25M

$25M

opt out

$22M

opt out

$19M

$19M

[Natick to NC]

Mook

Nuney and later Pedey but I'd rest Pedey and sale a lot this year

JD

Devers

Benny

Hanley or Mitch dependent on lefty ,righty match ups

X

Jbj

Vaz.

 

sale 5 innings

Price 5 innings

Pom 5 innings

Erod 5 innings

porkchop no limit

Wright no limit ....yes 6 man rotation 95 wins and comes down to final series to decide .

Bullpen will be a mess by July when we trade and hope to promote an arm or 2

May trade for a starter at deadline via verlander at deadline ? It's go now mode for next two years .

Edited February 20, 2018 by Natick to NC

[Nick]

I'm taking Cora's word for it ...

 

Betts RF

Beni LF

Nunez 2B (didn't he have the highest OPS last year?)

JD DH

Devers 3B

Xander SS

Mitch 1B

Vaz C

JBJ CF

[moonslav59]

I think Cora will start out with this...

 

vs RHP

1) Betts RF

2) Nunez 2B

3) Beni LF

4) JDM DH

5) Devers 3B

6) Moreland 1B

7) Bogey SS

8) JBJ CF

9) Vaz C

 

vs LHPs

1) Betts RF

2) Nunez 2B

3) Bogey SS

4) JDM DH

5) HRam 1B

6) Beni LF

7) Devers 3B

8) Vaz C

9) JBJ CF

 

[sk7326]

The last 2 years of the Martinez deal are probably not going to be great. At the same time, if it is Dodgers Adrian Gonzalez level (or hell, 2017 HanRam)... we can live with that.

[Nick]

The last 2 years of the Martinez deal are probably not going to be great. At the same time, if it is Dodgers Adrian Gonzalez level (or hell, 2017 HanRam)... we can live with that.

 

He'll start the season at age 33 and 34. How tough can it be to DH at age 34? I'm sure he thinks he will play until he's 40.

[jad]

So it’s a 25-25-20-20-20. The opt outs are intriguing. He turns 31 this summer. He turns 32 next summer. If he opts out, he’ll be hitting free agency as a 32 yr old DH. That being said, he gets away from the Uber FA season which is next year. His market will be interesting should he produce. His comp would be EE and he’d have an EE contract at that point although he’d hit the market again 2 years younger. This isn’t the albatross most expected, but if he is injured or ineffective and stays on with Boston, then his contract will be problematic in terms of keeping the band together.

 

That being said, this contract will be the norm going forward. Owners will cede length for player flexibility and they’ll offer higher AAV’s early on with the hopes of lowering the AAV for lux tax purposes. My anticipation is that this deal ends up being a 2 yr $50 mil deal. But with the $110/5 model, it’ll be $22 mil against the lux tax which saves the sox $3 mil vs the cap. This is similar to the Nunez deal which is really a 1 yr $6 mil deal, but it looks like a 1 yr $4 mil deal on the books. DD brought in Nunez and JD for $26 mil against the books for 2018 and in kind saved $5 mil against the cap with smart math. I think you’ll see this for Machado and Harper next year. I have predicted a Harper contract of 10 yr $300 mil, but a massive 3-4 yr front load and an opt out. No team, not even NY or LA can afford to have 1/5 their lux cap spent on one player, but they can outlay that money and drop the lux tax hit with sham long term contracts that are shorter term, higher money deals.

 

Isn't this something that was completely predictable and foreseen during the CBA negotiations? Obviously, they left that open. If it was seen by both sides as a problem (you call it a sham), they would have agreed to language preventing it. I really can't see who the aggrieved party would be with these kinds of deals.

[harmony]

No, it's...

 

$25M

$25M

opt out

$22M

opt out

$19M

$19M

The $22 million AAV is nice for the luxury tax calculation but my understanding is that if J.D. Martinez opts out after two seasons the combined $6 million difference in the two-year AAV of $25 million will be added to the 2020 luxury tax calculation when the Red Sox will be looking to re-sign or replace Chris Sale, Martinez, Xander Bogaerts and Rick Porcello.

 

That's where the crunch may come.

[moonslav59]

wRC+ since 2014 (4 seasons):

171 Trout

161 Votto

149 Stanton

148 JD Martinez, Harper & Goldschmidt

 

JD has had a .936 OPS over 4 years, which is .001 below Papi.

 

He has the lowest BB% (8.6) of any of the top 12 wRC+ players.

[moonslav59]

The $22 million AAV is nice for the luxury tax calculation but my understanding is that if J.D. Martinez opts out after two seasons the combined $6 million difference in the two-year AAV of $25 million will be added to the 2020 luxury tax calculation when the Red Sox will be looking to re-sign or replace Chris Sale, Martinez, Xander Bogaerts and Rick Porcello.

 

That's where the crunch may come.

 

Yes, and it's not like we will reset the tax before then, so we'll be looking at a multiplier tax rate year 2 & 3 and likely beyond.

[Beaneater]

I think Cora will start out with this...

 

vs RHP

1) Betts RF

2) Nunez 2B

3) Beni LF

4) JDM DH

5) Devers 3B

6) Moreland 1B

7) Bogey SS

8) JBJ CF

9) Vaz C

 

vs LHPs

1) Betts RF

2) Nunez 2B

3) Bogey SS

4) JDM DH

5) HRam 1B

6) Beni LF

7) Devers 3B

8) Vaz C

9) JBJ CF

 

 

Those have the potential of being monstrous line-ups. Let's go!

[moonslav59]

Those have the potential of being monstrous line-ups. Let's go!

 

We'll also have a decent bench:

 

HRam or Moreland

Leon

2 from: Hernandez, Swihart, Holt, Brentz and Marrero

 

When Pedey comes back, wow!

[OH FOY]

Here's the payroll without JD and Nunez at this point, don't know how accurate it is. But it's a tool for now.

http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/payroll/

I guess add 29 million to this. looks like just under the 237 million penalty.

McAdam was wrong.

Edited February 20, 2018 by OH FOY!

[Nick]

Here's the payroll without JD and Nunez at this point, don't know how accurate it is. But it's a tool for now.

http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/payroll/

I guess add 29 million to this. looks like just under the 237 million penalty.

McAdam was wrong.

 

I'd go to Cot's...https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mVYyinHlYUI0gE98AgFFb5tDFIoEatCfqEo2xDfv1NI/pubhtml# It has everything you need to know.

 

Cot has our AAV for 2018 at $229,934,600. CB Tax Threshhold is $197,000,000, we pay 20% penalty on $32,934,600. We also pay 12% surtax on amount over $217,000,000.

 

We have to get to $237,000,000 to get to the max penalty. We still have $7,000,000 for reinforcement at trade dead line.

 

With Nunez on board, it's time to cut the cord with Holt and save $2.225M. It's time.

Edited February 20, 2018 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Here's the payroll without JD and Nunez at this point, don't know how accurate it is. But it's a tool for now.

http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/payroll/

I guess add 29 million to this. looks like just under the 237 million penalty.

McAdam was wrong.

 

Cots has us just barely under $230M, so we have about $7M to use on mid season call-up salary adjustments, bonuses and possible further acquisitions.

 

We could possibly shed some salary, if needed, but trading one or more of these players (AVV salary listed):

 

HRam: some portion of his $22M

 

JBJ: $6.1M (acquire a solid SP'er mid-season?)

 

Kelly: $3.825M

 

Holt: $2.225M

 

Thornburg $2.05M once he comes off the DL

 

[moonslav59]

Any word on who is being DFA'd or traded to make room for JD?

 

Brentz?

 

Marrero?

 

Elias?

 

Jerez?

 

Shepher or Buttrey?

 

Trade Holt?

 

Pedey to 60 day DL?

 

 

Edited February 20, 2018 by moonslav59

[notin]

The Sox can save $2mill if they DFA Holt, which might happen because they need to clear a spot on the 40-man.

 

They could trade Bradley, but will any pitcher they get back make less than $6mill?

[Nick]

Cots has us just barely under $230M, so we have about $7M to use on mid season call-up salary adjustments, bonuses and possible further acquisitions.

 

We could possibly shed some salary, if needed, but trading one or more of these players (AVV salary listed):

 

HRam: some portion of his $22M

 

JBJ: $6.1M (acquire a solid SP'er mid-season?)

 

Kelly: $3.825M

 

Holt: $2.225M

 

Thornburg $2.05M once he comes off the DL

 

 

I'm just not in favor of getting rid of JBJ, especially now with Nunez and JD on board. He will be the best CF in the league from 9th spot.