2018 Prospect Mega Thread

[jacksonianmarch]

Tanner Houck is really struggling in Salem. Some bad numbers. 49.2 innings, 58 hits, with a ridiculous 37 walks. Soxprospects has him at #2? Not good. Haven't been on that site in years. Just don't think they are accurate enough for me.

Last night 5 innings, 7 hits, 4 ER's, 6 K's with 4 BB's, and a HR. Better start throwing some strikes consistently and when he does he gets hit. His ERA is 6.16 up to this point.

Maybe High A too much at this point.

 

When they selected Houck, I read a lot of pub on him being a long term shutdown reliever. I wonder if his current performance escalates that conversion

[Station 13]

We signed 1st rounder Triston Casas 2.52 million.

 

Let this be the rebuild of the system.

Edited June 10, 2018 by Station 13

[moonslav59]

We signed 1st rounder Triston Casas 2.52 million.

 

Let this be the rebuild of the system.

 

I hope we did something right in this draft.

 

We'll need a couple miracles to keep us highly competitive once we hit 2020 or 2021.

[mvp 78]

Tanner Houck is really struggling in Salem. Some bad numbers. 49.2 innings, 58 hits, with a ridiculous 37 walks. Soxprospects has him at #2? Not good. Haven't been on that site in years. Just don't think they are accurate enough for me.

Last night 5 innings, 7 hits, 4 ER's, 6 K's with 4 BB's, and a HR. Better start throwing some strikes consistently and when he does he gets hit. His ERA is 6.16 up to this point.

Maybe High A too much at this point.

 

They are completely revamping his pitching style. You need to look at the long term projection for him.

 

You may not like Soxprospects, but they have actual people watching these guys and are trained scouts.

[moonslav59]

They are completely revamping his pitching style. You need to look at the long term projection for him.

 

You may not like Soxprospects, but they have actual people watching these guys and are trained scouts.

 

Speaking of soxprospects,com, where do you think they'll slot our recent draftees?

 

Maybe this?

 

1. Chavis

 

2. Houck

 

3. Mata

 

4. Groome

 

5. Casas

 

6. Beeks

 

7. Feltman

 

8. D Hernandez

 

9. Decker

 

10. Chatham

 

11. Ockimey

 

12. Travis

 

13. Northcut (assuming he signs)

 

14. Dalbec

 

15. Scherff

 

16. Cottam

 

17. D Diaz

 

18. Lakins

 

19. Brannen

 

20. A Flores

 

 

 

[mvp 78]

They stated that the top pick could go as high as #2. I think Chavis gets pushed down and it goes:

 

Houck

Casas

Chavis

Mata

Beeks

Groome

 

I think the drop off after that is considerable enough that it doesn't really matter how the rest of the guys are ranked.

[mvp 78]

I think CJ Chatham, Dalbec and Espinal make a decent jump in the ratings. Crawford, Poyner and Buttrey may also make the top 20 the next rankings too.

[Spudboy]

I think it's silly to give a draftee a high prospect ranking when they have not played any professional ball.

[moonslav59]

I think CJ Chatham, Dalbec and Espinal make a decent jump in the ratings. Crawford, Poyner and Buttrey may also make the top 20 the next rankings too.

 

They just recently updated their rankings, so how much more movement will we see?

[Station 13]

https://www.weei.com/media/audio-channel/bradfo-sho-ep-87-you-should-know-durbin-feltman

 

Feltman..... I like this pick. he could help the team quickly.

[mvp 78]

They just recently updated their rankings, so how much more movement will we see?

 

Last April to July:

Chavis jumped from 11 to 4

Mata jumped 16 to 6

Beeks jumped 20+ to 10

Brannen jumped 20+ to 14

 

When Beni was signed in 2015, they ranked him 7th behind ERod, Moncada, Devers, Margot, Johnson and Owens. Johnson and Owens were given a bump for their MLB experience I believe.

 

In 2016, Chatham was ranked 13 in July with Groome being unranked since he wasn't signed when they agreed to the rankings.

 

Last year, Houck was placed at 5 in July behind Chavis, Travis, Groome and Devers.

 

This year, Groome is injured again, Travis is sucking and Chavis being suspended, I think there's a lot of room for newer guys to slide in even though they just ranked people in June. I think June is still too early in the season to get a good read on MiLB guys, so the extra few weeks could really reshape the prospect rankings.

[moonslav59]

Last April to July:

Chavis jumped from 11 to 4

Mata jumped 16 to 6

Beeks jumped 20+ to 10

Brannen jumped 20+ to 14

 

When Beni was signed in 2015, they ranked him 7th behind ERod, Moncada, Devers, Margot, Johnson and Owens. Johnson and Owens were given a bump for their MLB experience I believe.

 

In 2016, Chatham was ranked 13 in July with Groome being unranked since he wasn't signed when they agreed to the rankings.

 

Last year, Houck was placed at 5 in July behind Chavis, Travis, Groome and Devers.

 

This year, Groome is injured again, Travis is sucking and Chavis being suspended, I think there's a lot of room for newer guys to slide in even though they just ranked people in June. I think June is still too early in the season to get a good read on MiLB guys, so the extra few weeks could really reshape the prospect rankings.

 

They adjusted their rankings after the Chavis suspension and Groome injury.

 

Why would they move even more, now?

[mvp 78]

They adjusted their rankings after the Chavis suspension and Groome injury.

 

Why would they move even more, now?

 

Because I said so and because the rankings don't really matter.

[Hugh2]

Tanner Houck is really struggling in Salem. Some bad numbers. 49.2 innings, 58 hits, with a ridiculous 37 walks. Soxprospects has him at #2? Not good. Haven't been on that site in years. Just don't think they are accurate enough for me.

Last night 5 innings, 7 hits, 4 ER's, 6 K's with 4 BB's, and a HR. Better start throwing some strikes consistently and when he does he gets hit. His ERA is 6.16 up to this point.

Maybe High A too much at this point.

 

I think Tanner Houck at #2 is more of an indictment on the system than the soxprospects rating system at this point. I'm sure if he continues to struggle he'll fall at some point.

[Hugh2]

the problem is there aren't really any "newer" guys, they system is empty and a bottom 10 system in baseball right now.

 

You might find some guys to place higher on a rankings list if you want to go purely by stats, but if you want to go by talent, projection, and what a guy COULD be there really isn't a lot of talent in the system to place ahead of the guys struggling at the top.

 

We also have zero clue where he is developmentally and what they have him working on. Maybe he shoots through the minors if they move him to the bullpen and becomes a lights out closer, or maybe he's the next Trey Ball. He's also working on changing his mechanics this year, which is tough, and he may never figure it out but if he does make that transition he is the best bet to have a middle of the rotation starter to better in the system not names Groome

Edited June 11, 2018 by Hugh2

[moonslav59]

I think Tanner Houck at #2 is more of an indictment on the system than the soxprospects rating system at this point. I'm sure if he continues to struggle he'll fall at some point.

 

Groome's injury and Mata's age is the major factor in Houck's rise to #2, but your point is well taken.

[Hugh2]

Groome's injury and Mata's age is the major factor in Houck's rise to #2, but your point is well taken.

 

Yup, and you could very well see Mata and Houck flip by the end of the year.

[moonslav59]

It really is a sad looking farm system, although had Devers never been called up, it wouldn't look so bad.

[Hugh2]

It really is a sad looking farm system, although had Devers never been called up, it wouldn't look so bad.

 

Well, that's another way of looking at it too. 1/2 the reason the farm system sucks so much now is because guys have either graduated or been traded for guys who are helping a big league club that is really really good right now. So there is that.......but if we want this window extended we're going to need some guys to emerge. The system was pretty damn weak in 2011-2012, but then Xander emerged and the 2011 draft class started to make it's mark over the next couple years.

 

It only really takes a few good guys to turn a system around. That task has obviously gotten just a little harder under the rules today but this is why you pump money into the scouting department to do their job.

[moonslav59]

Well, that's another way of looking at it too. 1/2 the reason the farm system sucks so much now is because guys have either graduated or been traded for guys who are helping a big league club that is really really good right now. So there is that.......but if we want this window extended we're going to need some guys to emerge. The system was pretty damn weak in 2011-2012, but then Xander emerged and the 2011 draft class started to make it's mark over the next couple years.

 

It only really takes a few good guys to turn a system around. That task has obviously gotten just a little harder under the rules today but this is why you pump money into the scouting department to do their job.

 

All of this is true, but the system has changed radically since 2010-2011. We can no longer draft good players with signability issues with lower picks. The comp pick system has changed. The international bonus pool has tightened.

 

Look at 2010: We had 4 picks in the top 57, despite losing pick 29 and 80 for signing Lackey and Scutaro. Yes, we missed with Vitek & Brentz, but we got Robbie Ross for Ranaudo and still have Workman.

 

2011 saw us get 4 picks in the top 40, and we still have JBJ, Barnes & Swihart on the roster.

 

It will be hard to stockpile picks like that again while signing new free agents to replace those departing.

 

In 2012, we got 3 picks in the top 37.

 

In 2013, we got 2 in the top 33, including Kopech as a comp pick that was essential in bringing us Sale.

 

From 2014 to 2018, we've done no better than 2 in the top 51 picks. That avenue has dried up.

 

The IFA avenue is much harder now.

 

Our budget is maxed out for signing FAs.

 

We won't be getting a number 7 pick (like Beni) in the immediate future.

 

Our farm shows no sign of having high impact players available by 2019, 2020 or 2021.

 

I'm not saying it can't happen, but the context has changed sharply.

Edited June 11, 2018 by moonslav59

[Larry Cook]

Mata went 5.1 tonight gave up one earned run, walked 6 (ouch) and struck out 8.

[moonslav59]

Lind hit his 4th HR.

 

Lin 2 for 4 with a DBL

 

Brett Nezter 4 singles (up to .311).

 

[oldtimer]

All of this is true, but the system has changed radically since 2010-2011. We can no longer draft good players with signability issues with lower picks. The comp pick system has changed. The international bonus pool has tightened.

 

Look at 2010: We had 4 picks in the top 57, despite losing pick 29 and 80 for signing Lackey and Scutaro. Yes, we missed with Vitek & Brentz, but we got Robbie Ross for Ranaudo and still have Workman.

 

2011 saw us get 4 picks in the top 40, and we still have JBJ, Barnes & Swihart on the roster.

 

It will be hard to stockpile picks like that again while signing new free agents to replace those departing.

 

In 2012, we got 3 picks in the top 37.

 

In 2013, we got 2 in the top 33, including Kopech as a comp pick that was essential in bringing us Sale.

 

From 2014 to 2018, we've done no better than 2 in the top 51 picks. That avenue has dried up.

 

The IFA avenue is much harder now.

 

Our budget is maxed out for signing FAs.

 

We won't be getting a number 7 pick (like Beni) in the immediate future.

 

Our farm shows no sign of having high impact players available by 2019, 2020 or 2021.

 

I'm not saying it can't happen, but the context has changed sharply.

 

Chavis is available to return on June 26th. Since he was high on the prospect list, I would hope he can regain that status in a month of playing time. I understand the projection for him now is 1st base, so we really wouldn't have a spot for him there this year.

[Jack Flap]

I couldn't find if this was posted somewhere else, but the Red Sox got their PTBNL from the Roenis Elias deal:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/06/mariners-trade-eric-filia-red-sox-roenis-elias-ptbnl.html

 

 

The Red Sox announced that they’ve acquired minor league outfielder Eric Filia from the Mariners as the player to be named later in April’s Roenis Elias trade. FanRag’s Robert Murray was the first to reports that Filia was going to the Red Sox (Twitter link).

 

Filia, 25, was Seattle’s 20th-round pick back in 2016 and ranked as the No. 11 prospect in a thin Mariners farm system, per MLB.com, though he missed the early portion of the season while serving a 50-game suspension due to a second positive test for a drug of abuse. He was recently activated and has batted .426/.508/.537 with a home run, three doubles and more walks (nine) than strikeouts (four) in 63 Double-A plate appearances.

 

Of course, Filia is older than the average competition he’s facing in Double-A, as was the case in 2017 when he batted .326/.407/.434 with five homers in 564 plate appearances as a 24-year-old in Class-A Advanced. Filia has punched out in just 7.3 percent of his professional plate appearances, and while that’s in part a testament to the younger competition he’s faced, it’s also an undeniable testament to his above-average bat-to-ball skills. He’s also walked at a 12.3 percent clip in the minors.

 

Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com laud those on-base and bat-to-ball skills, though their report also indicates that he’s limited to the outfield corners on the defensive spectrum and has “average-at-best tools” in other facets of the game. Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen called him a potential bench bat in running through the Mariners’ system this offseason, noting past injury issues and recreational drug usage have slowed his path to the Majors.

 

If he has the potential to be a useful bench player for us at some point, that'd seem like a great return for Elias, who had no role and no future in Boston. Perhaps Harmony has some insight on this guy?

[Spudboy]

Got to love a 26 year old prospect who has slowed his development with recreational drug use!!!!

 

Spark another fatty in Portland dude!

[Hugh2]

Got to love a 26 year old prospect who has slowed his development with recreational drug use!!!!

 

Spark another fatty in Portland dude!

 

I think him graduating college 2 years older than normal is what makes the appearance of his development slow.

[Hugh2]

Can't ask for much better for a PTBNL. They can can make contact and strikes out at an insanely low pace.

[moonslav59]

Chavis is available to return on June 26th. Since he was high on the prospect list, I would hope he can regain that status in a month of playing time. I understand the projection for him now is 1st base, so we really wouldn't have a spot for him there this year.

 

If JBJ keeps struggling, we may see more of JD in the OF, so maybe Chavis could muscle his way into some DH time.

[a700hitter]

If JBJ keeps struggling, we may see more of JD in the OF, so maybe Chavis could muscle his way into some DH time.

I see what you did there.

[moonslav59]

Jalen Beeks 7.0 IP 6 H 1 ER 7Ks

 

Mike Ohlman with his 17th HR.

 

Josh Ockimey 2 for 4 with a 2B.