2018 Prospect Mega Thread

[Larry Cook]

Castillo, witte, mars, and dalbec all with taters tonight. Dalbec’s was his 11th.

 

Mars was his first.

[Larry Cook]

Sturgeon with two taters for Pawtucket tonight.

 

Rei with his 4th also.

[Spudboy]

In case no one else says so thanks Larry for the updates on the kiddie corp. and draft.

 

It's interesting to read these high lights.

[OH FOY]

Haley has been Pitching under the radar in Pawtucket. He gave up 10 hits, but only 1 run, in 5.1 innings. His ERA is 3.18. Don't go by his record lost a couple tough games, where he has pitched good.

 

Not hearing good things about Dalbec even though he has 11 HRS. 64 K's in 171 at bats, seems like a lot of swing and misses, who seems over-matched in the A+ League.

Edited June 4, 2018 by OH FOY!

[Larry Cook]

Haley has been Pitching under the radar in Pawtucket. He gave up 10 hits, but only 1 run, in 5.1 innings. His ERA is 3.18. Don't go by his record lost a couple tough games, where he has pitched good.

 

Not hearing good things about Dalbec even though he has 11 HRS. 64 K's in 171 at bats, seems like a lot of swing and misses, who seems over-matched in the A+ League.

 

He appears to be a guesser at the plate. When he guesses right on a fastball, he can send it a long way.

When he guessed wrong or does not get a fastball, it can result in a lot of strikeouts.

 

But he has worked his average up to .210 plus, so he is making more contact.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I wouldn't be surprised to see Chatman get a promotion soon to Double A.

 

Chatman replaces Bogaerts in 2020.

 

Kelly and then later Feltman replace Kimbrell beginning in 2019.

 

That's approximately 40 million saved. I love it when a plan comes together.

[jacksonianmarch]

I wouldn't be surprised to see Chatman get a promotion soon to Double A.

 

Chatman replaces Bogaerts in 2020.

 

Kelly and then later Feltman replace Kimbrell beginning in 2019.

 

That's approximately 40 million saved. I love it when a plan comes together.

 

Kelly will cost you a lot of money. Chatham doesn't deserve a promotion past Salem. While Feltman looks like a good pick, you have no idea if he can be a good pro, let alone a replacement for the best reliever in baseball

[moonslav59]

I try to stay optimistic, but I just don't see any of our ML ready or near ML ready prospects that look like they can replace our departing free agent players in kind.

 

Here's a look at what we have to deal with...

 

2018-2019 Winter

Kimbrel- maybe Smith or Thornburg can take up some of the slack. If we keep Kelly and let Kimbrel go, maybe we can be okay without a top closer. Lots of "ifs".

Pomeranz- will likely try to replace him with Wright, Velazquez and/or Johnson, but then our starter depth is shortened. Maybe Beeks or Haley can surprise.

Kelly- obviously, if we let Kimbrel and Kelly go, we'll have to sign somebody good. Does anyone think we'd have a similar team next year without K & K? Even if Smith and Thornburg step it up, we;d be much weaker. (Plus, if we use Wright or Velazquez as a starter, we'd shorten our pen by 3 guys (K, K & Wright).

 

2019-2020 Winter

Sale- we'll need to keep Sale. I don't see any way around it. It will cost a lot, especially when compared to what he's getting paid now.

Porcello- Expecting Wright to take Pom's slot and Velazquez to take Porcello's slot is really hoping for a lot. There's little chance both will do as well as P & P have done for us over their time here.

Bogaerts- There's nobody in the system that can come close to replacing Bogey. Our best replacements would be Holt & Nunez (also a FAs that winter)-both even worse on defense than Bogey. No way Chatham is going to come close to Bogey by 2020, if ever.

Moreland- Sam Travis? Ockimey? Move devers to 1B? Move JD to 1B?

Nunez- He'll be gone.

Holt- Could stay with the Sox

Thornburg- not a big loss, since he's given us squat.

 

2020-2021 Winter

Betts- irreplaceable.

JBJ- nobody in the system. (Holt? JD to FT OF?)

Wright- Beeks, Haley, Shawaryn, Groome, D Hernandez or Mata? In 2021?

Smith- not hard to replace

Leon- not hard to replace

 

 

[jacksonianmarch]

The problem with a cliff created by DD is that you start paying your great players lots of money and don’t have a wave to replace the guys you had to let go for budget constraints.

[moonslav59]

The problem with a cliff created by DD is that you start paying your great players lots of money and don’t have a wave to replace the guys you had to let go for budget constraints.

 

I'm grateful DD created a window of 4-5 years. It sure beats a 1-2 year window.

 

I'm not sure we'll be bad after 2021, because we'll still be at or near the luxury tax spending limit, but there's no way we keep all our best players or replace them, in kind, without Henry paying massive taxes and incurring maximum penalties that may further hinder the rebuilding of our farm and extended future.

 

[jacksonianmarch]

I'm grateful DD created a window of 4-5 years. It sure beats a 1-2 year window.

 

I'm not sure we'll be bad after 2021, because we'll still be at or near the luxury tax spending limit, but there's no way we keep all our best players or replace them, in kind, without Henry paying massive taxes and incurring maximum penalties that may further hinder the rebuilding of our farm and extended future.

 

 

You're going to start feeling it this season with the fact that you wont be able to take on much in terms of salary at the deadline to upgrade your team. Next year, you will feel it when you have to choose which player to re-sign, Kelly or Kimbrel and with the fact that you'll have to fill the 5th starter role internally (which Wright might already have wrapped up btw). It isn't until 2020 that you really feel it. That's when Xander and Sale will be in the first years of their new deals and Betts will be in the final year of arb. ERod will be expensive by then as well. Price and Pedroia will still be on the books. 2020 will be the first year where you'll need the farm to either fill holes or be dealt for the hole fillers.

[moonslav59]

You're going to start feeling it this season with the fact that you wont be able to take on much in terms of salary at the deadline to upgrade your team. Next year, you will feel it when you have to choose which player to re-sign, Kelly or Kimbrel and with the fact that you'll have to fill the 5th starter role internally (which Wright might already have wrapped up btw). It isn't until 2020 that you really feel it. That's when Xander and Sale will be in the first years of their new deals and Betts will be in the final year of arb. ERod will be expensive by then as well. Price and Pedroia will still be on the books. 2020 will be the first year where you'll need the farm to either fill holes or be dealt for the hole fillers.

 

Come on, Jacko. Look what we gave up for Reed, Zeagler, Hill and others over recent years.

 

Our farm is not that weak, and it's not like we need to trade for Sonny Gray or Gee Stanton.

 

We'll be a top contender in October, and we'll make a trade that brings what we need.

 

We'll be okay next year, because we got out from under HRam's deal. Kelly is not an essential piece to being highly competitive next year, especially if Smith or Thornburg return to their former selves by next season.

 

The year after that, we lose Pablo's contract, so it's not like we're losing everyone.

 

The ones we do lose may not be able to be replaced in kind by free agency, but we'll be able to spend on some mid level guys like we did in 2013.

 

We are not closing the window just yet.

[jacksonianmarch]

Slav, I'm talking about actually filling holes, not picking up rentals. Think about this.\

 

 

If the sox re-sign Sale, Xander, and Kimbrel, the 2020 commitments to Price, Sale, Kimbrel, Betts (final year of arb likely about $25 mil), Pedroia Vasquez, and Bogaerts will be around $155 mil. The arb guys will be ERod, Barnes, and Beni who will likely cost around $20 mil between them. If JD doesn't opt out, that brings your team to $197 mil. Add in Pablo's opt out for 2020, you're up to $202 mil. Devers will be pre-arb. Add in $15 mil in benefits and you're up to $217 mil. The final cap around that time will be around $250 mil. That leaves $33 mil to build a team. If Pedroia is in fact done, you will need to flesh out the following positions on that amount of money

 

1b, 2b, CF (I am assuming the sox move on from JBJ as his arb price balloons), SP2, SP4, SP5, rest of pen aside from Barnes and Kimbrel. Maybe Velasquez will take one of the spots. Wright will be a FA by them. Hembree might pick up a bigger role as he will be at the end of the arb process and wont be essentially free. If you try to fill any of those spots with above replacement level regulars on the open market, you will fill maybe 2 of those spots with the $33 mil. This is why you need the next wave. You don't have a wave that will be ready by 2020. The drafting yesterday was interesting in that the best players were HS guys who wont be ready by 2020. I am a bit unsure of the plan from management on that one

[Fan_since_Boggs]

2019 plans:

Pomeranz= easy to replace. He sucks this year and the Red Sox don't miss him at all.

Kimbrell will want too much money (Chapman money). Bye.

Kelly will want less -- perhaps resign to be closer. Alternatively, trade J.Bradley for a closer.

 

Rotation:

Sale

Price

Porcello

E-Rod

Wright

Still loaded with depth with Beeks and Shawaryn. Johnson too, but maybe the Red Sox trade Johnson. He belongs in the rotation, a better fit in the NL.

 

Sign B.Harper, move Betts to CF, thus freeing up Bradley for a trade. With Harper added, the Red Sox will have another dominant year (same pitching staff minus Kimbrell).

 

2020 plans:

 

No way Chatham is going to come close to Bogey by 2020, if ever.

He won't be as good as Bogaerts but if Chatman continues to develop, he can be a quality starting SS. The downgrade won't be devastating and Chatman will be a better player for the money, i.e., 20 million per year (Bogaerts) versus league minimum (Chatman). And the Red Sox will still be loaded offensively with Harper, Betts, Martinez, Devers, and Benintendi.

 

Bogaerts plays out the final year of his contract in 2019; replaced by Chatman. Red Sox get compensation for Bogaerts.

 

I don't know what the Red Sox should do with Sale at the end of 2019. I don't know if he has many ACE years left beyond next season. He will want a fortune. I probably wouldn't pay him, but I'm not sure where my ace is coming from. I have Price, E-Rod, Wright, Beeks, and Shawaryn as rotation pieces in 2020. That isn't bad, assuming Beeks and Shawaryn keep improving, but the staff lacks an ace. The Red Sox need to find an ace for 2020 and beyond.

 

Finding a rotation ace for 2020 and beyond is the Red Sox's biggest challenge. Everything else can be accomplished pretty easily.

 

If the sox re-sign Sale, Xander, and Kimbrel,

These are ******** assumptions. As a Yankees fan, you are hoping they spend as much on Kimbrel as the Yankees spent on Chapman, but I doubt the Red Sox do that.

 

 

The drafting yesterday was interesting in that the best players were HS guys who wont be ready by 2020. I am a bit unsure of the plan from management on that one

I'm sure they have a plan. You don't know the plan, and you can't figure it out, but that doesn't mean they don't have a plan. The draft suggests that the Red Sox aren't framing the financial issues the way you like to frame them. Imagine that.

Edited June 6, 2018 by Fan_since_Boggs

[jacksonianmarch]

FsB, Chatham is a singles hitter with no power. Xander is a 20HR guy. You're not signing Harper. You sign him and you might as well say goodbye to Betts

[moonslav59]

Slav, I'm talking about actually filling holes, not picking up rentals. Think about this.\

 

 

If the sox re-sign Sale, Xander, and Kimbrel, the 2020 commitments to Price, Sale, Kimbrel, Betts (final year of arb likely about $25 mil), Pedroia Vasquez, and Bogaerts will be around $155 mil. The arb guys will be ERod, Barnes, and Beni who will likely cost around $20 mil between them. If JD doesn't opt out, that brings your team to $197 mil. Add in Pablo's opt out for 2020, you're up to $202 mil. Devers will be pre-arb. Add in $15 mil in benefits and you're up to $217 mil. The final cap around that time will be around $250 mil. That leaves $33 mil to build a team. If Pedroia is in fact done, you will need to flesh out the following positions on that amount of money

 

1b, 2b, CF (I am assuming the sox move on from JBJ as his arb price balloons), SP2, SP4, SP5, rest of pen aside from Barnes and Kimbrel. Maybe Velasquez will take one of the spots. Wright will be a FA by them. Hembree might pick up a bigger role as he will be at the end of the arb process and wont be essentially free. If you try to fill any of those spots with above replacement level regulars on the open market, you will fill maybe 2 of those spots with the $33 mil. This is why you need the next wave. You don't have a wave that will be ready by 2020. The drafting yesterday was interesting in that the best players were HS guys who wont be ready by 2020. I am a bit unsure of the plan from management on that one

 

Okay, but you said we were going to start "feeling it" this summer.

 

I doubt we will need a costly piece. We're pretty deep.

 

I agree, we can't keep everyone, and I have run the numbers to show why we can't, but our window is open this year and next. I happen to think we'll be very competitive in 2020, but that's a little hard to project, at this point. It's 2021 that things will be very tough. There's still enough time to try and build some farm pieces into assets, and I'm not confident it will happen, but that's 2/5 years away.

[Larry Cook]

Dalbec with his 12th tater tonight.

 

Cutter Crawford threw another impressive game as well.

[moonslav59]

FsB, Chatham is a singles hitter with no power. Xander is a 20HR guy. You're not signing Harper. You sign him and you might as well say goodbye to Betts

 

Bogey hit 21 one year. The most he hit another year was 12. He's not a plus defender.

 

There's a chance we could get by without him in 2020.

 

Having a core of Betts, Sale, JD, ERod, Devers and maybe Kimbrel or Bogey is not all that bad. Price might be back to form after surgery by 2020.

 

I'm a cliff believer, but I'm thinking 2021 is when it gets bad. 2020 will likely be good but not great. Just my take.

 

[OH FOY]

Rusney 5-5 last night with Lind hitting a HR. I like the Lind signing. Dalbec is hitting .143 against LHP this year so far. He's a RH hitter, but on the bright side he is hitting .288 with RISP, this year so far. Edited June 6, 2018 by OH FOY!

[moonslav59]

soxprospects.com has new rankings posted:

 

http://www.soxprospects.com/index.html

 

Groome moved from 1 to 4

 

Chavis moved up to #1.

 

Houck jumped over Mata to #2.

 

Mata stays at #3.

 

Beeks from 13 to #5.

 

Shawaryn & D Hernandez stay at #6 & #7.

 

Chatham jumped from 18 to #8.

 

Ockimey stayed at 9.

 

Travis fell from 5 to 10.

 

Big jumpers:

Lakins 19 to 12

Espinal 29 to 15

Crawford 59 to 21

Buttrey 39 to 28

Jerez 44 to 29

Quiroz 46 to 34

 

Big droppers

Raudes 11 to 16

Brannen 12 to 18

Castellanos 16 to 23

de la Guerra 24 to 33

[Larry Cook]

Dalbec mashed his 13th tater tonight.

 

He may be struggling against left handlers by he continues to mash righties.

[OH FOY]

HR today for Rusney. Dalbec is hitting .244 against RHP, he better improve other wise see him repeating another year at High A. He just strikes out too much.

[moonslav59]

Castillo with a 2-run HR tonight.

 

Shepherd 6 IP 0 ER

 

Lin goes 2 for 4.

 

Dalbec 2 for 4 with a double.

 

Mata 5 IP 2 ER (4 BB).

[Larry Cook]

Schreff went 4 innings and struck out 7, but walked 3.

[OH FOY]

Last 10 games Rusney hitting .429 3 HRS, 8 RBI's. Edited June 9, 2018 by OH FOY!

[Larry Cook]

Shawaryn with another impressive outing. 7 innings 1 earned run and 8 strikeouts.

[Station 13]

When is Chavis coming off his suspension?

[OH FOY]

Tanner Houck is really struggling in Salem. Some bad numbers. 49.2 innings, 58 hits, with a ridiculous 37 walks. Soxprospects has him at #2? Not good. Haven't been on that site in years. Just don't think they are accurate enough for me.

Last night 5 innings, 7 hits, 4 ER's, 6 K's with 4 BB's, and a HR. Better start throwing some strikes consistently and when he does he gets hit. His ERA is 6.16 up to this point.

Maybe High A too much at this point.

Edited June 10, 2018 by OH FOY!

[OH FOY]

Chavis should be eligible July 1 if going by Pawtucket schedule.

[OH FOY]

I would like to Post stuff from Perfect Game, but unfortunately its pay site and wont show up.

Anyway the year Houck was Drafted Perfect Game had Alex Lange from LSU going to the Sox, Theo Drafted him a couple of spots later, and doing alright in A+ Ball Myrtle Beach. 4-2 with a 2.89 ERA. last 22 innings a 0.41 ERA.