A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[notin]

notin, no offense, but what the hell are you talking about?

 

After I posted that I realized that was Epstein's year when thd team quit and collapsed...

[moonslav59]

... I'll say it again...you take away those first two picks DD had (because the teams sucked) and how is his drafting record when he's picked in the back of the first round? It's not as good as the cumulative record of Theo and Ben picking there, not even close. ...

 

I agree with you one everything in your post, and I've been known to defend Ben on his farm building.

 

He did, howeer, have some high draft picks and multiple late first round/comp picks.

 

2012

24 Marrero

31 Johnson

37 Light

(3 in the top 37 kind of makes up for no top 10 pick)

 

2013

7 Ball

45 Stanki

 

2014

26 Chavis

33 Kopech

67 Travis

 

2015

7 Beni

 

2 of his 4 drafts saw him have a top 7 pick. One of the other two he had 3 picks from 24-37.

 

It's not like he always had crappy draft slots.

\

Ben was better at international picks than drafting.

 

Espinoza (got us Pom)

Moncada (Helped get us Sale)

Guerra (helped get Kimbrel)

Almonte

W Rijo

Basabe brothers (helped get Sale and Ziegler)

 

& Castillo

 

Edited March 11, 2018 by moonslav59

[harmony]

He’s not good enough to start in the majors. That is why he is still in the minors. He is at best a 4th OF in the majors. That is why he is stuck in the minors. If a team thought they could pencil him in as a starter, they would have dealt him and eaten some of the contract. $4-5 million is a reasonable price for a starting OFer, but there isn’t a team that thinks he could hold down a starting job.

I disagree with this Seattle blogger who proposed a trade of Rusney Castillo to the Mariners, but ...

 

https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2017/10/25/16487712/mariners-red-sox-potential-trade-2018-bullpen-outfield

[Bellhorn04]

I disagree with this Seattle blogger who proposed a trade of Rusney Castillo to the Mariners, but ...

 

https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2017/10/25/16487712/mariners-red-sox-potential-trade-2018-bullpen-outfield

 

Interesting proposition, at least.

[a700hitter]

I disagree with this Seattle blogger who proposed a trade of Rusney Castillo to the Mariners, but ...

 

https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2017/10/25/16487712/mariners-red-sox-potential-trade-2018-bullpen-outfield

Basically, we would have to give away Bradley to get the Mariners to take Castillo?

[Kimmi]

I think it is called loyalty. I get that.

 

It's agreeing with Ben's team building philosophy and disagreeing with Dombrowski's.

[Kimmi]

I fully agree. To me, re-signing Moreland was a very solid move when it happened. When JD was finally brought on it changed the roster in a way that Moreland would be somewhat unnecessary or redundant.

 

Now Moon's binky signs for less than half his projected value and DD has made a mistake somehow.

 

I like what DD has done so far to prepare a roster to go deep this year.

 

Yes, I say grab some journeyman starters and throw them at a minor league fridge and see what sticks. Nothing ventured, nothing gained. Sox will need 10 starters anyway.

 

As I see things, as long as the Sox are not hit by a significant injury bug, this team could and probably should take the division.

 

The Scankees are not a lock by any means.

 

Time to fire up a bowl and relax.

 

I completely agree with all points.

 

As far as firing up a bowl and relaxing, if I were into pottery and had a kiln, I'd do it.

[cp176]

If you are a very careful trade, why was it so important to you too take commentary that Dombrowski doesn't draft with the same success rate Sox fans are used to anf turn it into defending him as better than Cherington? Is any criticism of Dombrowski so upsetting top you, you need to create an alternative argument you can defend him in?

 

The guy hasn't drafTed as well as our past GMs. If you think he is simply going to replace the farm wIth equivalent prospects, you are extremely likely to be disappointed. Deal with it. Not my fault. Not on his ream.

 

I will say I am unaware I needed to know more than Dombrowski to criticize him. As you have been mocking Cherington, safe to assume you consider yourself a better baseball mind?

 

notin - seriously are you ok? I can't read much of what you have written. Obviously whatever it is it must be right I guess. I don't consider what I have said about Cherington mocking at all. In my opinion, I do not think that he was ready to lead our franchise. Now though since you brought it up, I would not criticize an acting GM of the Red Sox on this site. It is not my style. I never have nor will I. I won't question the moves made by people who have a job that I really Know nothing about. Word twisting again too tut tut. If you think that it is safe to assume based on anything that I have written that I consider myself to be a better baseball mind then Cherington, maybe it is you who needs to check the comprehension skills. Oh yeah - you have also told me that I could not understand what you have written and you are right.

[cp176]

It's agreeing with Ben's team building philosophy and disagreeing with Dombrowski's.

 

I think that that is fine. I am just not sure that I rally know what the current team building philosophies are of either of these two guys.

[Spudboy]

I completely agree with all points.

 

As far as firing up a bowl and relaxing, if I were into pottery and had a kiln, I'd do it.

 

Hahahahahaha!11!!

 

Your cover of being a math teacher in Virginia is blown.

 

You are a hash dealing hippie from San Fransisco.

 

We know.

[moonslav59]

lol!

[moonslav59]

Fangraphs positional projected rankings:

 

The Sox...

 

1st RF 5.7

1st DH 2.8

4th 2B 2.9

5th CF 3.6

5th LF 3.2

8th SS 3.5

14th 3B 2.8

20th C 2.0

22nd 1B 1.3

 

8th SP 15.9

11th RP 3.9

 

2nd Batting 27.9

8th Pitching 19.8

 

6th overall 47.7

 

1. Astros 55.2

2. LAD 50.6

3. NYY 50.0

4. Cubs 49.8

5. CLE 48.7

 

 

 

 

[a700hitter]

It's agreeing with Ben's team building philosophy and disagreeing with Dombrowski's.

If Ben had a philosophy, it was hard to discern. Was his philosophy to build the franchise through the draft by getting high first round picks for finishing last, but not drafting any viable pitching talent while having the highest payroll in baseball from offering big contracts to below average talents and never giving a long term contract to a blue chip pitcher like Scherzer or Lester. Is that a philosophy, because that was his record? And now Ben has no team building philosophy, because no team will take a chance on making him a GM. The only bad thing he didn’t do was to set fire to Fenway... and that would have probably been a plus.

[moonslav59]

If Ben had a philosophy, it was hard to discern. Was his philosophy to build the franchise through the draft by getting high first round picks for finishing last, but not drafting any viable pitching talent while having the highest payroll in baseball from offering big contracts to below average talents and never giving a long term contract to a blue chip pitcher like Scherzer or Lester. Is that a philosophy, because that was his record? And now Ben has no team building philosophy, because no team will take a chance on making him a GM. The only bad thing he didn’t do was to set fire to Fenway... and that would have probably been a plus.

 

Certainly, Ben did enough or failed to do enough to be critical about. He made some serious blunders, and his FA signings were major failures. The Lester fiasco was horrific.

 

That being said, I think he had a plan. He aimed to build the farm- no, not by high draft picks gained from losing but by great international signings that Ben bashers ignore. IT WASN'T THE DRAFTS!

 

Look, I hated the Pablo signing and was not happy about the HRam signing either, but there was a glut of pitchers coming on the market the following year, and I think his plan was to boost the offense with Pablo & HRam and then sign a pitcher the following year. It's not like our offense didn't need fixing, too. The team had major holes that winter- not all due to Ben's mistakes. In hindsight, signing Scherzer (or Lester) would have been much better, but the theory or "philosophy" was not illogical. He chose the wrong FAs.

 

I'm also convinced Ben was not going to hoard prospects and never pull the trigger on a big trade. I think he was going to sign a big pitcher like Price and make a big splash trade for another stud. We'll never know for sure, but we do know he built up the farm without the use of high draft picks coming from finishing in last place before two of his four drafts. Only Beni came from losing.

 

 

 

[Nick]

I don't know about anyone else but when DD was brought on board I felt an adult was now running the organization.

[Bellhorn04]

Results-wise, Ben's run as GM was totally bizarre. A world championship-fantastic. A 93-loss season and a 91-loss season (the most losses for a Red Sox team since 1965)-horrific.

[Jack Flap]

Basically, we would have to give away Bradley to get the Mariners to take Castillo?

 

Sounds awful...granted, this was written way back in October, before the Red Sox turned down trade proposals involving Yasiel Puig and Edwin Encarnacion for Bradley.

 

I wonder if people realize, when they spin up salary dump proposals like this, that Castillo's money doesn't count against the luxury tax, therefore he is not incurring any penalties for the team or hampering our ability to add other players. He's not hurting anyone where he is (except perhaps John Henry's ample checkbook), so let him stay there until an opportunity comes along that would actually improve our club.

[mvp 78]

Results-wise, Ben's run as GM was totally bizarre. A world championship-fantastic. A 93-loss season and a 91-loss season (the most losses for a Red Sox team since 1965)-horrific.

 

It was like a Maury Povich show. Sometimes you are the father, but sometimes you are NOT the father and you get to run around and act self righteous and do a little dance on tv.

[moonslav59]

I was kind of hoping we gave Elias one more shot at a starter role, but...

 

Former Mariners starter Roenis Elias has become somewhat of an afterthought since the Red Sox acquired him prior to 2016, but the left-hander could reemerge this year out of the bullpen. Elias is now working as a reliever, owing in part to a newfound commitment to using a sidearm delivery against same-sided hitters, per Chad Jennings of the Boston Herald. The only lefty reliever on Boston’s projected roster is Robby Scott, which could help give Elias a path back to the majors. After appearing in 51 games and making 49 starts from 2014-15 in Seattle, with which he pitched to a 3.97 ERA across 279 innings, Elias has only thrown eight frames in two years with the Red Sox. The 29-year-old spent nearly all of 2016-17 with Triple-A Pawtucket.

[mvp 78]

@InsideEdgeScout

 

Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley ran down a lot of balls in the outfield last season.

 

Betts made 17 non-routine plays out of 41 chances (41.5%) in 2017 — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: 22.3%.

 

Bradley made 11 non-routine plays out of 28 chances (39.3%) in 2017 — 12th best in MLB.

[mvp 78]

I was kind of hoping we gave Elias one more shot at a starter role, but...

 

Former Mariners starter Roenis Elias has become somewhat of an afterthought since the Red Sox acquired him prior to 2016, but the left-hander could reemerge this year out of the bullpen. Elias is now working as a reliever, owing in part to a newfound commitment to using a sidearm delivery against same-sided hitters, per Chad Jennings of the Boston Herald. The only lefty reliever on Boston’s projected roster is Robby Scott, which could help give Elias a path back to the majors. After appearing in 51 games and making 49 starts from 2014-15 in Seattle, with which he pitched to a 3.97 ERA across 279 innings, Elias has only thrown eight frames in two years with the Red Sox. The 29-year-old spent nearly all of 2016-17 with Triple-A Pawtucket.

 

Maybe they think he has a better chance of sticking at RP and maybe can go multiple innings when he needs to?

[moonslav59]

Is Justin Haley a 6/7th starter candidate?

 

He came back to us on rule 5 last year and hasn't looked too bad.

[Hugh2]

I am not comparing DD to Theo who clearly knows how to build a team in all aspects including pitching. Ben could never figure out how to draft or build pitching. Ben just doesn't cut it as a GM. He blew his shot in spectacular fashion. He managed to finish last 3 times while choking the budget for years after his departure with huge FA busts, and he left the organization completely bereft of pitching. His record and legacy is indefensible.

 

Ben was also left an organization that was devoid of any pitching talent, aside from Jon Lester who was an impending free agent. You could say not resigning Lester was a huge mistake but that still builds into the argument me and Notin are making.

 

Ben was handed a s*** team, and sold off and rebuilt in such a way that gave him a WS in 2013, the 2014 team that failed was the same 2013 team that won it all. 2015 is where I think he truly failed as a G.M. He got cute and thought he could be smarter than everyone else and sold off MLB assets for other MLB assets. Porcello actually ended up being a pretty good deal but the Lackey trade was an absolute disaster.

 

Ben was a different kind of G.M. I think he was the right guy at that time, he kept and built up the farm but I don't think he had the balls to pull the trigger and move those assets the way DD has. DD was the right man at the right time as his record is much better on the trading side of the ball.

[mvp 78]

Is Justin Haley a 6/7th starter candidate?

 

He came back to us on rule 5 last year and hasn't looked too bad.

 

http://m.mlb.com/player/595234/justin-haley

 

Not a chance.

[Bellhorn04]

Ben was also left an organization that was devoid of any pitching talent, aside from Jon Lester who was an impending free agent. You could say not resigning Lester was a huge mistake but that still builds into the argument me and Notin are making.

 

Ben was handed a s*** team, and sold off and rebuilt in such a way that gave him a WS in 2013, the 2014 team that failed was the same 2013 team that won it all. 2015 is where I think he truly failed as a G.M. He got cute and thought he could be smarter than everyone else and sold off MLB assets for other MLB assets. Porcello actually ended up being a pretty good deal but the Lackey trade was an absolute disaster.

 

Ben was a different kind of G.M. I think he was the right guy at that time, he kept and built up the farm but I don't think he had the balls to pull the trigger and move those assets the way DD has. DD was the right man at the right time as his record is much better on the trading side of the ball.

 

I disagree that Ben was handed a s*** team.

 

But I'm about 99.9 per cent sure it was Lucchino that hired Valentine, and that move, along with the residual sourness from 2011, ensured that 2012 would be a disaster.

[moonslav59]

I disagree that Ben was handed a s*** team.

 

But I'm about 99.9 per cent sure it was Lucchino that hired Valentine, and that move, along with the residual sourness from 2011, ensured that 2012 would be a disaster.

 

The philosophy of not signing 30+ year old pitchers was not Ben's idea either.

 

Ben was given a good team with a few very good young players but little farm depth. He had expiring contractsand many holes to fill.

 

Had Pablo hit at 80% of his career norm as he entered his prime and HRam hit like 2016 in 2015, Ben might still be here.

 

 

Ben was able to dump CC and Beckett, and as it turned out, dumping AGon wasn't bad either. Napoli actually did better one year.

 

I loved Theo, but look at some of the guys Ben inherited...

 

Crawford

Beckett

Youkilis

Dice-K

Ellsbury

Buchholz

Salty

Sweeney

Bard

Aviles

Was Middy still here?

 

I still think the Dodger dump was a top 3 or 4 Sox trade of all time. Of course, ben haters will say LL did that trade. That trade was essential to the 2013 ring. Too bad the rest of the money saved was wasted on Pablo & HRam, instead of Lester or Scherzer.

[mvp 78]

I disagree that Ben was handed a s*** team.

 

But I'm about 99.9 per cent sure it was Lucchino that hired Valentine, and that move, along with the residual sourness from 2011, ensured that 2012 would be a disaster.

 

It also set the stage to completely clean house.

[a700hitter]

Ben was also left an organization that was devoid of any pitching talent, aside from Jon Lester who was an impending free agent. You could say not resigning Lester was a huge mistake but that still builds into the argument me and Notin are making.

 

Ben was handed a s*** team, and sold off and rebuilt in such a way that gave him a WS in 2013, the 2014 team that failed was the same 2013 team that won it all. 2015 is where I think he truly failed as a G.M. He got cute and thought he could be smarter than everyone else and sold off MLB assets for other MLB assets. Porcello actually ended up being a pretty good deal but the Lackey trade was an absolute disaster.

 

Ben was a different kind of G.M. I think he was the right guy at that time, he kept and built up the farm but I don't think he had the balls to pull the trigger and move those assets the way DD has. DD was the right man at the right time as his record is much better on the trading side of the ball.

He was handed a team that was stacked with talent who many favored to win the AL East in 2012, and he managed to dismantle that pitching staff by low-balling Jon Lester with a 4 yr/$70 million offer and then he traded him. He gave away Lackey too who went onto help the Cardinals to 2 NL Championship Series and the Cubs to a World Championship.

[mvp 78]

He was handed a team that was stacked with talent who many favored to win the AL East in 2012, and he managed to dismantle that pitching staff by low-balling Jon Lester with a 4 yr/$70 million offer and then he traded him. He gave away Lackey too who went onto help the Cardinals to 2 NL Championship Series and the Cubs to a World Championship.

 

"Ben stacked the roster in 2013 to win the WS and built a great farm all on his own. It was ownership that didn't re-sign Lester, traded Lackey, signed Panda, signed Hanley, moved Xander to 3b for Drew, signed Rusney and extended Porcello."

[a700hitter]

"Ben stacked the roster in 2013 to win the WS and built a great farm all on his own. It was ownership that didn't re-sign Lester, traded Lackey, signed Panda, signed Hanley, moved Xander to 3b for Drew, signed Rusney and extended Porcello."

I had forgotten that Ben was half of a puppet— only controlled on the bad moves, but his non puppet half accomplished everything good.