A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[Slasher9]

let me know when DD has a duckboat parade.....

Theo had 2.

Ben had 1.

 

until then i shall simply refer to him as the GM that signed the worst contract in the history of the Red Sox.

[Bellhorn04]

Like I said - no one gets a free pass.

[mvp 78]

let me know when DD has a duckboat parade.....

Theo had 2.

Ben had 1.

 

until then i shall simply refer to him as the GM that signed the worst contract in the history of the Red Sox.

 

Sandoval's is worse than Price's.

[moonslav59]

He was handed a team that was stacked with talent who many favored to win the AL East in 2012, and he managed to dismantle that pitching staff by low-balling Jon Lester with a 4 yr/$70 million offer and then he traded him. He gave away Lackey too who went onto help the Cardinals to 2 NL Championship Series and the Cubs to a World Championship.

 

That's a little deceptive, as Lackey's contract had just 1.3 yrs remaining when traded.

[mvp 78]

That's a little deceptive, as Lackey's contract had just 1.3 yrs remaining when traded.

 

And one of those years was at the major league minimum, right?

[Bellhorn04]

And one of those years was at the major league minimum, right?

 

Correct.

[mvp 78]

Correct.

 

Did he end up playing at the minimum for the Cards? I remember the talk was that he was willing to sit out that season if he was still in BOS or at least pout over it. His 2015 numbers were really good.

[Bellhorn04]

Did he end up playing at the minimum for the Cards?

 

Yes he did.

[moonslav59]

Lackey may or may not have played here for the min. I thought he would have, but the risk was there.

 

I wasn't crazy about the trade, even though I had hopes for Kelly as a starter, but it was clear we had to clean house at that point in the season.

 

We could have re-signed Lester, or Lackey, or Miller, and so what those guys did after their new contracts should not be held against Ben.

 

Ideally, he'd have re-signed Lester and Miller and never talked to Pablo or HRam, but it wasn't really the trades that were awful.

[cp176]

let me know when DD has a duckboat parade.....

Theo had 2.

Ben had 1.

 

until then i shall simply refer to him as the GM that signed the worst contract in the history of the Red Sox.

 

Oh man Slasher good to hear from you. I know that you didn't like the Price deal but you have to admit that deal for Pomeranz sure was a beauty. Just fooling with you.

[Bellhorn04]

We could have re-signed Lester, or Lackey, or Miller, and so what those guys did after their new contracts should not be held against Ben.

 

I don't know what you mean about Lester. Ben was the GM when they failed to sign him to an extension. Ben was the GM when they failed to sign him as a free agent. How would Ben, or the Sox FO, not be held accountable for what he's been doing since then?

[moonslav59]

I don't know what you mean about Lester. Ben was the GM when they failed to sign him to an extension. Ben was the GM when they failed to sign him as a free agent. How would Ben, or the Sox FO, not be held accountable for what he's been doing since then?

 

I'm saying the trading away of the rotation was not bad. It was the failure to resign them or replace them in kind that was awaful. Yes, that's on Ben.

 

HRam, Pablo and Masterson were horrific signings. The Lester low-ball was, too.

 

I had hoped the trades we made were for younger, more cost-controlled players, but they were not the bad part of Ben's moves.

 

My point about what those players not re-signed did after their contracts ran out was meant for judging the trades only.

[a700hitter]

I don't know about anyone else but when DD was brought on board I felt an adult was now running the organization.

Yep! A seasoned pro.

[moonslav59]

I don't know what you mean about Lester. Ben was the GM when they failed to sign him to an extension. Ben was the GM when they failed to sign him as a free agent. How would Ben, or the Sox FO, not be held accountable for what he's been doing since then?

 

Also, I think people are glamorizing what Lackey did after leaving Boston. While he was clealy better than Masterson, Webster and others, here's his post Sox numbers:

 

With STL and his remaining contract signed with Boston:

 

16-13 3.10 (The Cards went 23-20 in his starts over 1.3 years with STL.

 

With the Cubs (post contract):

 

23-20 3.94 (The Cubs went 36 -23 in his starts- very nice)

 

In his 7 playoff starts with both clubes, he averaged just under 5 IP.

 

He was 2-1 with 20 ER in 41 IP (4.39 ERA) in the playoffs with both teams combined.

 

Those are good numbers but not great.

 

Lester had a great 2016 (19-5 2.44), but he wasn't really all that great the other two years.

 

2015: 11-12 3.34 (17-15 in his GS'd)

2017: 13-8 4.33 (19-13)

Total: team went 36-28 in his starts in these two years. His record was 24-20.

 

I'm not trying to say I didn't want Lester back. I did. Porcello has done pretty well- not as good as Lester, but he's been cheaper and has a great year under his bealt as well.

 

Kelly has been a let down, and Craig imploded.

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

Lester had a great 2016 (19-5 2.44), but he wasn't really all that great the other two years.

 

2015: 11-12 3.34 (17-15 in his GS'd)

2017: 13-8 4.33 (19-13)

Total: team went 36-28 in his starts in these two years. His record was 24-20.

 

 

How come you're using conventional numbers instead of WAR?

 

Seems to me you were using WAR for Porcello.

[moonslav59]

How come you're using conventional numbers instead of WAR?

 

Seems to me you were using WAR for Porcello.

 

I usually use ERA- and WHIP to judge pitchers.

 

I do value WAR, but not as much as harmony and others.

 

Here's the WAR numbers from 2014-2017:

 

12.0 Lester

12.0 Price

8.8 Porcello

7.2 Lackey

 

ERA-

77 Sale

77 Price

80 Lester

81 Pom

84 Lackey

96 Porcello

 

WHIP

1.03 Sale

1.15 Lester

1.16 Price

1.18 Lackey

1.24 Porcello

 

Again, I'm not saying Lester has been bad. Lackey's ERA- and WHIP numbers look good, too.

 

I wish Ben had kept Lester. I understand why we traded Lackey.

 

It would have been nice to trade Lester and end up with Porcello, but to have also re-signed Lester and Miller, instead of HRam & Pablo.Better yet, we could have signed Scherzer & Miller.

 

[moonslav59]

How come you're using conventional numbers instead of WAR?

 

Seems to me you were using WAR for Porcello.

 

Also, I have criticized WAR for giving too much credit for IP, as with Porcello.

[Kimmi]

Hahahahahaha!11!!

 

Your cover of being a math teacher in Virginia is blown.

 

You are a hash dealing hippie from San Fransisco.

 

We know.

 

LOL

 

It was a good cover while it lasted.

[Kimmi]

Results-wise, Ben's run as GM was totally bizarre. A world championship-fantastic. A 93-loss season and a 91-loss season (the most losses for a Red Sox team since 1965)-horrific.

 

IMO, 2012 should just be thrown out because of Bobby Valentine. And I mean that sincerely.

 

In 2014, the Sox were the favorites to win the division by large majority of analysts and computer projection systems. Ben did his job.

 

If the Yankee, or better yet, the Astros somehow finish in last place this year, would it be the GM's fault?

Edited March 12, 2018 by Kimmi

[Kimmi]

I don't know what you mean about Lester. Ben was the GM when they failed to sign him to an extension. Ben was the GM when they failed to sign him as a free agent. How would Ben, or the Sox FO, not be held accountable for what he's been doing since then?

 

Henry's philosophy on signing aging pitchers to long term contracts took an about face when Dombrowski was hired. That philosophy, which I completely agree with (and believe Ben does too) is part of the reason why Lester was not re-signed.

[moonslav59]

Updated scouting reports on....

 

Devers http://soxprospects.com/players/devers-rafael.htm

 

Groome http://soxprospects.com/players/groome-jay.htm

 

Chavis http://soxprospects.com/players/chavis-michael.htm

 

Mata http://soxprospects.com/players/mata-bryan.htm

 

Houck http://soxprospects.com/players/houck-tanner.htm

[Bellhorn04]

Henry's philosophy on signing aging pitchers to long term contracts took an about face when Dombrowski was hired. That philosophy, which I completely agree with (and believe Ben does too) is part of the reason why Lester was not re-signed.

 

So Ben had a different philosophy from Theo, since Theo signed Lester?

 

Let's face it, Kimmi, we don't really know what Ben's philosophy was or is. It's all speculation.

[Bellhorn04]

IMO, 2012 should just be thrown out because of Bobby Valentine. And I mean that sincerely.

 

In 2014, the Sox were the favorites to win the division by large majority of analysts and computer projection systems. Ben did his job.

 

If the Yankee, or better yet, the Astros somehow finish in last place this year, would it be the GM's fault?

 

I give Ben a free pass for 2012 as well. I don't fault him that much for 2014 either. It was 2015 when I really questioned his acumen, especially with the pitching staff he rolled out there.

[Hugh2]

I disagree that Ben was handed a s*** team.

 

But I'm about 99.9 percent sure it was Lucchino that hired Valentine, and that move, along with the residual sourness from 2011, ensured that 2012 would be a disaster.

 

I think people put way too much confidence in a coaching staff for crediting a teams success.

 

Perhaps I could have worded my opinion more in-depth. 2012 was riddled with underperformance and injury. There's just too much conversation to re-hash to really go back and argue the "chicken and beer" and contemplate why that happened. Honestly, it was probably a combination of everything. But Whatever Ben C. did seemed to work. He cut the fat out, shed some payroll, and added mid-value talent that completely turned that team around in 2013.

 

NOW, I think that teams success was obviously due to it's core talent of guys like Ortiz, Ellsbury, and Lester so in hindsight calling it a "s*** team" was definitely poor wording on my part.

 

The odd thing about it all, is the exact formula that worked in 2013 completely fell apart in 2014. Charrington seemed to fall into this big time G.M. trap of keeping the team competitive and selling MLB pieces to try and buy low on other MLb pieces and it completely fell apart for him. The Lackey trade was one of the worse trades I've seen in my lifetime. Getting rid of Lester and Lackey was just irresponsible. How can you trade away your number 1 and number 2 pitcher and make sideways moves to try and compete? You mine as well sell them off for farm pieces and if he had done that we could probably have the same level of talent on this team now with a stronger farm system intact. But I suppose hindsight is 20/20.

 

I wasn't a big fan of the Dave Dambrowski hiring but I've come around on him a bit. He's the right G.M. for this job. I think Ben C. gets too much crap but I also don't think he had the balls to pull off the moves that Dave.

[a700hitter]

I give Ben a free pass for 2012 as well. I don't fault him that much for 2014 either. It was 2015 when I really questioned his acumen, especially with the pitching staff he rolled out there.

I don’t give him a free pass. Big surprise there. He stuck too long with the ill- conceived pipe dream of Bard as a starting pitcher even though Valentine was not so subtle in questioning the wisdom of the move. Bobby V is a lot of things that people don’t like, but one thing that he is good at is talent evaluation. The young dopey Ben should have heeded that wisdom. The second big mistake that Ben made was not backing Valentine when the Youkilis matter happened. They should have backed Valentine and told Pedroia to pipe down. History has shown that Pedroia can be an ass, and he was acting like one in that situation. I loved Youk, but he was toast. Bobby V as a top talent evaluator knew that Youk was toast and he was setting the stage for his benching as well as sending a message to the rest of the team’s sacred cows. Once management through Valentine under the bus they set the stage for additional player uprisings. They set the stage for disaster. You can’t throw the manager under the bus before camp breaks. It was a poor decision to hire him to lead that team, but they gutted him before opening day. His players never liked him, but he never had problems like he had in Boston, which had a very large contingent of primary donas. Ben let the situation get out of control, and he did nothing to right that ship. It was a very talented group, but Ben let the cancer take hold and helped it to metastasize.

[Nick]

I don’t give him a free pass. Big surprise there. He stuck too long with the ill- conceived pipe dream of Bard as a starting pitcher even though Valentine was not so subtle in questioning the wisdom of the move. Bobby V is a lot of things that people don’t like, but one thing that he is good at is talent evaluation. The young dopey Ben should have heeded that wisdom. The second big mistake that Ben made was not backing Valentine when the Youkilis matter happened. They should have backed Valentine and told Pedroia to pipe down. History has shown that Pedroia can be an ass, and he was acting like one in that situation. I loved Youk, but he was toast. Bobby V as a top talent evaluator knew that Youk was toast and he was setting the stage for his benching as well as sending a message to the rest of the team’s sacred cows. Once management through Valentine under the bus they set the stage for additional player uprisings. They set the stage for disaster. You can’t throw the manager under the bus before camp breaks. It was a poor decision to hire him to lead that team, but they gutted him before opening day. His players never liked him, but he never had problems like he had in Boston, which had a very large contingent of primary donas. Ben let the situation get out of control, and he did nothing to right that ship. It was a very talented group, but Ben let the cancer take hold and helped it to metastasize.

 

"IT'S NOT ME, IT'S THEM". That's all I need to know. And any player that disrespects a manager who by the way was hired by the ownership (because they do ultimately hire the top baseball person). I have no use for. Do you think there's a team that would trade for "IT'S NOT ME, IT'S THEM" and pick up 100% of his salary?

[Bellhorn04]

"IT'S NOT ME, IT'S THEM". That's all I need to know. And any player that disrespects a manager who by the way was hired by the ownership (because they do ultimately hire the top baseball person). I have no use for. Do you think there's a team that would trade for "IT'S NOT ME, IT'S THEM" and pick up 100% of his salary?

 

Not now, obviously, considering his health status, so the question is kind of irrelevant.

[Bellhorn04]

I don’t give him a free pass. Big surprise there. He stuck too long with the ill- conceived pipe dream of Bard as a starting pitcher even though Valentine was not so subtle in questioning the wisdom of the move. Bobby V is a lot of things that people don’t like, but one thing that he is good at is talent evaluation. The young dopey Ben should have heeded that wisdom. The second big mistake that Ben made was not backing Valentine when the Youkilis matter happened. They should have backed Valentine and told Pedroia to pipe down. History has shown that Pedroia can be an ass, and he was acting like one in that situation. I loved Youk, but he was toast. Bobby V as a top talent evaluator knew that Youk was toast and he was setting the stage for his benching as well as sending a message to the rest of the team’s sacred cows. Once management through Valentine under the bus they set the stage for additional player uprisings. They set the stage for disaster. You can’t throw the manager under the bus before camp breaks. It was a poor decision to hire him to lead that team, but they gutted him before opening day. His players never liked him, but he never had problems like he had in Boston, which had a very large contingent of primary donas. Ben let the situation get out of control, and he did nothing to right that ship. It was a very talented group, but Ben let the cancer take hold and helped it to metastasize.

 

I don't necessarily disagree, but if we're holding Dombrowski to the same standard, he didn't do anything last year about the Pedroia insubordination either.

[moonslav59]

I think people put way too much confidence in a coaching staff for crediting a teams success.

 

Perhaps I could have worded my opinion more in-depth. 2012 was riddled with underperformance and injury. There's just too much conversation to re-hash to really go back and argue the "chicken and beer" and contemplate why that happened. Honestly, it was probably a combination of everything. But Whatever Ben C. did seemed to work. He cut the fat out, shed some payroll, and added mid-value talent that completely turned that team around in 2013.

 

NOW, I think that teams success was obviously due to it's core talent of guys like Ortiz, Ellsbury, and Lester so in hindsight calling it a "s*** team" was definitely poor wording on my part.

 

The odd thing about it all, is the exact formula that worked in 2013 completely fell apart in 2014. Charrington seemed to fall into this big time G.M. trap of keeping the team competitive and selling MLB pieces to try and buy low on other MLb pieces and it completely fell apart for him. The Lackey trade was one of the worse trades I've seen in my lifetime. Getting rid of Lester and Lackey was just irresponsible. How can you trade away your number 1 and number 2 pitcher and make sideways moves to try and compete? You mine as well sell them off for farm pieces and if he had done that we could probably have the same level of talent on this team now with a stronger farm system intact. But I suppose hindsight is 20/20.

 

I wasn't a big fan of the Dave Dambrowski hiring but I've come around on him a bit. He's the right G.M. for this job. I think Ben C. gets too much crap but I also don't think he had the balls to pull off the moves that Dave.

 

We could "what if" all day long.

 

Players under perform andover perform all the time, and GMs and coaches get the creditor blame all to often.

 

I will say this, if HRam had hit like 2016 in 2015, if Porcello had pitched like 2016 in 2015 and had Pablo hit 60-70% of his career normin 2015, Ben might still be here.

 

I guess it's Ben's fault these players played much better once DD took over.

 

Of course, Ben has to shoulder much of the balme for the staff building (or lack of). The Masterson signing was a joke.

 

I am pretty sure, Ben was going to address the rotation in 2015. He never got a chance.

 

[a700hitter]

I don't necessarily disagree, but if we're holding Dombrowski to the same standard, he didn't do anything last year about the Pedroia insubordination either.

True, but what Pedroia did last year didn't pit the players against the manager. He pitted himself against the entire team and the manager, and he himself had to smooth over the issue. What he did in 2012, caused a divide between the players and the manager that required third party intervention and leadership.