A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[cp176]

I think it's not so much comparing, but more trying to give Ben the credit that he deserves for our current team. It irks me to no end that Dombrowski is touted as such a genius for putting our team back in contention when the team was already there before Dombrowski made any moves, and the pieces that Dombrowski added were only possible because of what Ben left behind.

 

I think it is called loyalty. I get that.

[Spudboy]

The five in five out principle might not work this year because most of the crappy teams decided to stay crappy or get even crappier.

 

Lol. Typical spot-on assessment worded in Bell fashion.

[Spudboy]

Maybe, but this is some big time hindsight.

 

No one could have foreseen Moustakas having to settle for that kind of a deal.

 

I criticize Dombrowski for a lot of things, but IMO, he did a good job in signing both Moreland and JD.

 

I fully agree. To me, re-signing Moreland was a very solid move when it happened. When JD was finally brought on it changed the roster in a way that Moreland would be somewhat unnecessary or redundant.

 

Now Moon's binky signs for less than half his projected value and DD has made a mistake somehow.

 

I like what DD has done so far to prepare a roster to go deep this year.

 

Yes, I say grab some journeyman starters and throw them at a minor league fridge and see what sticks. Nothing ventured, nothing gained. Sox will need 10 starters anyway.

 

As I see things, as long as the Sox are not hit by a significant injury bug, this team could and probably should take the division.

 

The Scankees are not a lock by any means.

 

Time to fire up a bowl and relax.

Edited March 11, 2018 by Spudboy

[moonslav59]

Maybe, but this is some big time hindsight.

 

No one could have foreseen Moustakas having to settle for that kind of a deal.

 

I criticize Dombrowski for a lot of things, but IMO, he did a good job in signing both Moreland and JD.

 

I mentioned it was hindsight, but for me, I hated the Moreland signing the second it happened. That's not hindisght. I was also one of the only the sign Moose supporters.

[moonslav59]

I fully agree. To me, re-signing Moreland was a very solid move when it happened. When JD was finally brought on it changed the roster in a way that Moreland would be somewhat unnecessary or redundant.

 

Now Moon's binky signs for less than half his projected value and DD has made a mistake somehow.

 

I like what DD has done so far to prepare a roster to go deep this year.

 

Yes, I say grab some journeyman starters and throw them at a minor league fridge and see what sticks. Nothing ventured, nothing gained. Sox will need 10 starters anyway.

 

As I see things, as long as the Sox are not hit by a significant injury bug, this team could and probably should take the division.

 

The Scankees are not a lock by any means.

 

Time to fire up a bowl and relax.

 

I went out of my way to say I like the DD moves and that hindsight is how GMs are often graded.

 

I am not being critical, except for the Moreland signing, which I hated all along. It wasn't because I knew Moose would sign for peanuts. It's because I thought we could do better.

 

Hindisght shows we could have. I guess only the Ben bashers can use hindsight with impunity.

.

 

[a700hitter]

I think it's not so much comparing, but more trying to give Ben the credit that he deserves for our current team. It irks me to no end that Dombrowski is touted as such a genius for putting our team back in contention when the team was already there before Dombrowski made any moves, and the pieces that Dombrowski added were only possible because of what Ben left behind.

Ben was out of his depth as a GM and completely incompetent when it came to pitching. What he left behind on the pitching mound was a steaming pile of s***.

Edited March 11, 2018 by a700hitter

[a700hitter]

Read more carefully. I said Dombrowski is not as good of a drafter as we are used, and he isn't. Even the people trying to prove his drafting have done more to prove my point that disprove it.

 

But again, you misread my posts. And assume too much. I never specifically said Cherington was; I said as our past GMs. This wasn't about Dombrowski vs Cherington as it was Dombrowski vs what Sox fans are used to. And whether or not others have compared Cherington and Dombrowski is immaterial to that point...

I am still quite impressed with Miggy, AGon and Beckett in a 2 year period, but DD is stronger at trading than drafting. He has done that pretty consistently during his career. Anyone who thinks he overpaid for Sale (a top 5 MLB Starter in his prime and with a salary that is 60% of Porcello's) must be smoking crack.

[a700hitter]

That's actually not really an impressive coup for a 12 year stretch. I know you probably didn't do extensive research (I wouldn't have either), but in order to bulk that list to seven names, you had o include a pitcher entering his age 29 season who has started more than 18 games only twice in his career, and won't start any games this year. (If you have ever ripped Buchholz for being fragile, Smyly might not be the guy to prop up) and Cameron Maybin, a career part time starter/part time DL mainstay who has struggled to stay on the field even when healthy.

 

If someone tried to pass off players like this as Cherington's highlight picks, would you accept them?

 

Granderson, Miller and Porcello were all good picks. That is true...

And he turned Granderson, Miller and Maybin into Miggy and Scherzer. Not bad at all.

[a700hitter]

No. Bet he's been an extremely solid defensive outfielder in limited action who deserves more chances in MLB as opposed to being the highest paid player in the International League

 

But we know he won't get those chances in Boston and why..

No other team wants Castillo. We can't give him away. He is a AAAA if there ever was one. Edited March 11, 2018 by a700hitter

[oldtimer]

No other team wants the Castillo. We can't give him away. He is a AAAA if there ever was one.

 

Cora thinks Castillo can play at the major league level. His problem is the contract he signed makes him too expensive for the Sox and probably too expensive (in terms of luxury tax cap) for any other team. It is crazy that the agreements made between the players union and owners result in situations where a capable player can get sidelined just because of financial considerations.

[Bellhorn04]

Cora thinks Castillo can play at the major league level. His problem is the contract he signed makes him too expensive for the Sox and probably too expensive (in terms of luxury tax cap) for any other team. It is crazy that the agreements made between the players union and owners result in situations where a capable player can get sidelined just because of financial considerations.

 

It is a crazy situation. I was just reading Peter Abraham's piece about Castillo in the Globe.

 

Castillo's only hope of getting to the big leagues is to absolutely light it up in AAA to the point that other teams are convinced he's a real MLB player, maybe even a potential star. But even then his price tag (3 years, 35.5 million remaining) is a little hefty by this offseason's standards. For a trade partner you would probably need a team in contention with a desperate need for an outfielder.

[Hugh2]

DD did draft AGon and Beckett in back to back years while with the Marlins -- not too shabby. In the year he drafted Beckett, he signed Miguel Cabrera as an amateur free agent. You could build a pretty good team around those guys.

 

He also had the overall #2, and then the overall #1 pick in the draft when he drafted those guys. There's a huge difference between draft with the first pick and drafting in the back of the first round.

 

Also, I'd like to add that I think we as fans give too much credit to the G.M. for draft results. There are countless scouts, directors, and crosscheckers putting in thousands of hours within the organization that go into making these decisions. I'd actually be willing to be that after the first round pick, most G.M.s don't even make another pick

[cp176]

He also had the overall #2, and then the overall #1 pick in the draft when he drafted those guys. There's a huge difference between draft with the first pick and drafting in the back of the first round.

 

Also, I'd like to add that I think we as fans give too much credit to the G.M. for draft results. There are countless scouts, directors, and crosscheckers putting in thousands of hours within the organization that go into making these decisions. I'd actually be willing to be that after the first round pick, most G.M.s don't even make another pick

 

I've said this many times. Giving any one individual credit for all draft picks whether they are good or bad makes no sense to me. You get good people to do that job for you. That is what leadership is all about. I'm not going to give one person all that much credit for building a farm system. It takes a team of talent.

[Bellhorn04]

Lol. Typical spot-on assessment worded in Bell fashion.

 

You honor me Spud.

[notin]

I am a very careful reader with an IQ that probably rivals yours even notin. You spin your comments your way, I will spin mine my way. I don't agree with your opinion here. That's it. I do enjoy this back and forth with you but when you start to hit the condescension button - not so much.

 

If you are a very careful trade, why was it so important to you too take commentary that Dombrowski doesn't draft with the same success rate Sox fans are used to anf turn it into defending him as better than Cherington? Is any criticism of Dombrowski so upsetting top you, you need to create an alternative argument you can defend him in?

 

The guy hasn't drafTed as well as our past GMs. If you think he is simply going to replace the farm wIth equivalent prospects, you are extremely likely to be disappointed. Deal with it. Not my fault. Not on his ream.

 

I will say I am unaware I needed to know more than Dombrowski to criticize him. As you have been mocking Cherington, safe to assume you consider yourself a better baseball mind?

[notin]

Maybe, but this is some big time hindsight.

 

No one could have foreseen Moustakas having to settle for that kind of a deal.

 

I criticize Dombrowski for a lot of things, but IMO, he did a good job in signing both Moreland and JD.

 

While Moustakas is a bargain, he had an additional cost for Boston in terms of draft pick compensation. If the Sox were going to give up picks, might as well go sign Cobb to a short deal instead and fill an actual need...

[moonslav59]

While Moustakas is a bargain, he had an additional cost for Boston in terms of draft pick compensation. If the Sox were going to give up picks, might as well go sign Cobb to a short deal instead and fill an actual need...

 

How much is that draft pick compensation worth? Certainly it has value, but Mosse was projected to make mega bucks, and he ended up with peanuts. If one counts the projection as valid, clearly the lost draft pick is not even close to the value disparity between what Moose signed for vs his projected value.

 

Moreland is projected to be on the bench. Moose could have played 1B better than HRam (on O and D), or he could have played 3B, vastly improving our IF defense, with Devers playing DH/3B. With the JD money, we could have signed other bargain playeers, icluding a solid SP'er.

 

Again, I'm not bashing DD for signing JD. I liked the signing. All I'm saying is that after all these bargain signings are competed, we may look back and say "what if?" Posters did this with Ben, and are still doing it years now- years later. I'm not sure why it should be out of bounds to just discuss the what ifs on this year's signings.

 

Edited March 11, 2018 by moonslav59

[a700hitter]

He also had the overall #2, and then the overall #1 pick in the draft when he drafted those guys. There's a huge difference between draft with the first pick and drafting in the back of the first round.

 

Also, I'd like to add that I think we as fans give too much credit to the G.M. for draft results. There are countless scouts, directors, and crosscheckers putting in thousands of hours within the organization that go into making these decisions. I'd actually be willing to be that after the first round pick, most G.M.s don't even make another pick

Look at the history of the first round. Plenty of GM's have whiffed on high picks. i don't care where he drafted. Landing AGon, Beckett, and Miggy in a 2year period is building a great foundation for a team.

[a700hitter]

Cora thinks Castillo can play at the major league level. His problem is the contract he signed makes him too expensive for the Sox and probably too expensive (in terms of luxury tax cap) for any other team. It is crazy that the agreements made between the players union and owners result in situations where a capable player can get sidelined just because of financial considerations.

If he was the hot talent that Ben thought he had signed, $9 million/year shouldn't make every other team blink. i am sure that the Red Sox would eat a potion of it. He is just not that good -- AAAA

[Natick to NC]

I swear if The Phillies land Arietta for anything less than 3 for 39 I'm pissed off .Talk about leaving the golfball hanging on the edge of the cup .....just knock it in Dave and let's make a real run at a World Series Title . Edited March 11, 2018 by Natick to NC

[Hugh2]

If he was the hot talent that Ben thought he had signed, $9 million/year shouldn't make every other team blink. i am sure that the Red Sox would eat a potion of it. He is just not that good -- AAAA

 

ehh.

 

If you have the #1 pick in the entire draft it's because your team sucks. He had the #1 pick overall and #2 overall. It's pretty freaking hard to mess up those picks in any sport.

 

After that, he doesn't really have a great record of drafting, it's not horrible but it's very meh.

[a700hitter]

ehh.

 

If you have the #1 pick in the entire draft it's because your team sucks. He had the #1 pick overall and #2 overall. It's pretty freaking hard to mess up those picks in any sport.

 

After that, he doesn't really have a great record of drafting, it's not horrible but it's very meh.

Checkout the 2006 first round.

[Hugh2]

Checkout the 2006 first round.

 

Oh, that's your argument? One year as an anecdotal remedy that the #2 pick overall can suck? I can find you #1 overall picks that suck. It's blatantly obvious you're picking from a much richer pool of talent at the top of the draft and the rate of success is astronomically higher with the first two picks.

 

And if that's your anecdote, then let's look at that draft. DD is addicted to drafting polished college pitchers, honestly look at his history he takes a ton of college pitchers in the first round. So he opts to draft Andrew miller over Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum, and and Max Scherzer.

 

Perhaps another reason you used this year was that there was much better talent in 7-11 range then there was between the 1-6 range. But this too is another anecdote. I've looked at the draft, I've looked at every pick in the top couple rounds many times over for the past 30 years. This was an anamoly, the talent at the top of the draft is almost always better than the rest. There's always a valuable player or two at the end of the first round or the rest of the draft most years and a team gets lucky with a Mike Trout but your chances of drafting premium talent increase ten fold when you have the #1 overall pick or the #2 overall pick in the draft.

 

So I'll say it again...you take away those first two picks DD had (because the teams sucked) and how is his drafting record when he's picked in the back of the first round? It's not as good as the cumulative record of Theo and Ben picking there, not even close.

 

Dave Dambrowski is really good at trading, but that seems to be it.

[a700hitter]

Oh, that's your argument? One year as an anecdotal remedy that the #2 pick overall can suck? I can find you #1 overall picks that suck. It's blatantly obvious you're picking from a much richer pool of talent at the top of the draft and the rate of success is astronomically higher with the first two picks.

 

And if that's your anecdote, then let's look at that draft. DD is addicted to drafting polished college pitchers, honestly look at his history he takes a ton of college pitchers in the first round. So he opts to draft Andrew miller over Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum, and and Max Scherzer.

 

Perhaps another reason you used this year was that there was much better talent in 7-11 range then there was between the 1-6 range. But this too is another anecdote. I've looked at the draft, I've looked at every pick in the top couple rounds many times over for the past 30 years. This was an anamoly, the talent at the top of the draft is almost always better than the rest. There's always a valuable player or two at the end of the first round or the rest of the draft most years and a team gets lucky with a Mike Trout but your chances of drafting premium talent increase ten fold when you have the #1 overall pick or the #2 overall pick in the draft.

 

So I'll say it again...you take away those first two picks DD had (because the teams sucked) and how is his drafting record when he's picked in the back of the first round? It's not as good as the cumulative record of Theo and Ben picking there, not even close.

 

Dave Dambrowski is really good at trading, but that seems to be it.

I am just saying that GM's blow top picks. i am not relying on one year anecdotally. i am also not giving DD great pats on the back for nailing the #1 and 2 picks, but he did nail it and every other GM had a shot at Miggy too as an amateur FA and he nailed that too. When he had the high picks, he rebuilt his organization in 2 years. Ben s*** the bed in 2013 with Trey ball. In years when DD didn't have high picks like that, he turned them into Scherzer and Miggy. The GM job over-matched Ben who was a very poor leader.

[a700hitter]

Oh, that's your argument? One year as an anecdotal remedy that the #2 pick overall can suck? I can find you #1 overall picks that suck. It's blatantly obvious you're picking from a much richer pool of talent at the top of the draft and the rate of success is astronomically higher with the first two picks.

 

And if that's your anecdote, then let's look at that draft. DD is addicted to drafting polished college pitchers, honestly look at his history he takes a ton of college pitchers in the first round. So he opts to draft Andrew miller over Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum, and and Max Scherzer.

 

Perhaps another reason you used this year was that there was much better talent in 7-11 range then there was between the 1-6 range. But this too is another anecdote. I've looked at the draft, I've looked at every pick in the top couple rounds many times over for the past 30 years. This was an anamoly, the talent at the top of the draft is almost always better than the rest. There's always a valuable player or two at the end of the first round or the rest of the draft most years and a team gets lucky with a Mike Trout but your chances of drafting premium talent increase ten fold when you have the #1 overall pick or the #2 overall pick in the draft.

 

So I'll say it again...you take away those first two picks DD had (because the teams sucked) and how is his drafting record when he's picked in the back of the first round? It's not as good as the cumulative record of Theo and Ben picking there, not even close.

 

Dave Dambrowski is really good at trading, but that seems to be it.

I am not comparing DD to Theo who clearly knows how to build a team in all aspects including pitching. Ben could never figure out how to draft or build pitching. Ben just doesn't cut it as a GM. He blew his shot in spectacular fashion. He managed to finish last 3 times while choking the budget for years after his departure with huge FA busts, and he left the organization completely bereft of pitching. His record and legacy is indefensible.

[notin]

If he was the hot talent that Ben thought he had signed, $9 million/year shouldn't make every other team blink. i am sure that the Red Sox would eat a potion of it. He is just not that good -- AAAA

 

He's not a star, and possibly not worth his salary, But there are certainly worse outfielders suiting up in MLB. But a combination of Castillo's contract, the Sox payroll, and his performance and injury history will keep him in the minors. ..

[a700hitter]

He's not a star, and possibly not worth his salary, But there are certainly worse outfielders suiting up in MLB. But a combination of Castillo's contract, the Sox payroll, and his performance and injury history will keep him in the minors. ..

He’s not good enough to start in the majors. That is why he is still in the minors. He is at best a 4th OF in the majors. That is why he is stuck in the minors. If a team thought they could pencil him in as a starter, they would have dealt him and eaten some of the contract. $4-5 million is a reasonable price for a starting OFer, but there isn’t a team that thinks he could hold down a starting job.

[notin]

I am not comparing DD to Theo who clearly knows how to build a team in all aspects including pitching. Ben could never figure out how to draft or build pitching. Ben just doesn't cut it as a GM. He blew his shot in spectacular fashion. He managed to finish last 3 times while choking the budget for years after his departure with huge FA busts, and he left the organization completely bereft of pitching. His record and legacy is indefensible.

 

Well one of those last place finIshes was when the team basically quit on him. They were in first into September. Is that really the GM who's at fault? The team was more than competitive for five months. And another last place finish was the fire sale team of 2012.

 

Really 2014 is the indefensible one. But even then he returned a roster largely intact from a World Series champion.

 

His failures were more related to his transactions. Sandoval was a bad call any way you look at it. Ramirez looked like a bargain but didn't work out. The early struggles of Bradley probably influenced him to sign Castillo, who is mired in AAA purgatory. The unorthodox Lester and Lackey trades did nothing to build the future. And he never dealt any prospects, which teams need to do tp stay competitive.

 

The whole"last place the times" thing is an oversimplification. He also had a fire sale and won a title 14 months later, which is really impressive no matter how you look at it. ...

[Bellhorn04]

Well one of those last place finIshes was when the team basically quit on him. They were in first into September. Is that really the GM who's at fault? The team was more than competitive for five months.

 

notin, no offense, but what the hell are you talking about?

[a700hitter]

Well one of those last place finIshes was when the team basically quit on him. They were in first into September. Is that really the GM who's at fault? The team was more than competitive for five months. And another last place finish was the fire sale team of 2012.

 

You have made a fundamental mistake with the facts that invalidates your entire argument.