A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[Kimmi]

I don’t think teams mine paying the large dollar amounts. I think it’s the length of the contracts that are the issue. If players would be willing to sign 3 to5 year deals instead of the 7 year plus ones I think teams wouldn’t mine paying the big $$$$$$$$! To many long term contracts go bad well before the end.

 

I have always preferred increasing the AAV in order to give fewer years. Porcello's contract is a good example of doing that. I don't want Dombrowski outbidding himself, but if he is going to do that, I hope he increases the $ amount instead of giving a 6th year.

[notin]

I have always preferred increasing the AAV in order to give fewer years. Porcello's contract is a good example of doing that. I don't want Dombrowski outbidding himself, but if he is going to do that, I hope he increases the $ amount instead of giving a 6th year.

 

That has been the trend this year. But so far only the relIef pitchers seem to be on board with it. ..

[moonslav59]

A look at who our cheap and mid range players might be in future year rosters.

 

Now

 

Under $2M:

Beni, Devers, Vazquez, C Smith (Thornburg $2.05M)

Barnes, Wright, Hembree, Leon, Hernandez, Workman, Scott, Maddox

Velazquez, Johnson, Swihart), Travis, Lin, Taylor, Marrero

Elias, Beeks, Brentz, Buttrey, Shepherd, Jerez

$2M to $6M

ERod, Kelly, Holt

6M to $10M

Pomeranz, Bradley, Bogaerts, Moreland

$10M to $14M

Betts, Sale, Kimbrel

 

2019 (FA: Pom, Kimbrel, Kelly and maybe HRam)

 

Rule 5 promotion to 40 man Roster?

Chavis , D Hernandez , J Ockimey, J Cosart, T Lakins

Non Rule 5 Top Prospects possible promoted?

Shawaryn, Dalbec, Chatham, Thompson

 

Under $2M:

Beni, Devers, C Smith(arb 2)

Barnes (arb 1), Hembree (arb1), Leon (arb3), Hernandez, Workman (arb2), Scott, Maddox

Velazquez, Johnson, Swihart (arb1), Travis, Lin, Taylor, Marrero

Elias (arb1), Beeks, Brentz, Buttrey, Shepherd, Jerez

$2M to $6M

ERod (arb2), Vaz (Arb2), Thornburg, Wright (arb2), Holt

6M to $10M

Moreland

$10M to $14M

Betts, Sale, Bogaerts, Bradley

 

2020 (FAs: Sale, Bogaerts, Porcello, Moreland, Thornburg, Holt, (Pablo & HRam)

 

Rule 5 promotion to 40 man Roster?

CJ Chatham, Dalbec, Shawaryn

 

Non Rule 5 Top Prospects possible promoted?

Groome, Houck, Thompson, Brannen, Scherff

 

Under $2M:

Devers, Chavis, D Hernandez, J Ockimey, J Cosart, T Lakins

Hernandez, Workman (arb2), Scott, Maddox

Velazquez, Johnson, Swihart (arb2), Travis, Lin, Taylor, Marrero

Elias (arb2), Beeks, Brentz, Buttrey, Shepherd, Jerez

$2M to $6M

Beni (arb1), Wright (arb3), Barnes (arb 2), Hembree (arb2), Leon (arb4),

6M to $10M

ERod (arb3), Vaz (Arb3), C Smith(arb 3),

$10M to $14M

??? (Erod?)

Over $14M

Betts (arb3), Bradley (arb4), Pedey & Price

Edited February 3, 2018 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

From MLBTR

Speaking of young players returning from injury, Red Sox left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez could potentially miss a few starts at the beginning of the season after undergoing right knee patellofemoral ligament reconstruction surgery, Ian Browne of MLB.com writes. “[The injury] happened, like, three times already,” Rodriguez pointed out. “I was just trying to fight to pitch with a knee like that. And I did it. Sometimes there would be ups and downs. Now it’s time to get back to the guy I was before I got the surgery.” The 24-year-old southpaw’s had his share of ups and downs across parts of three seasons with the Red Sox. Last season, he put up 137 1/3 innings for the club while striking out 9.83 batters per nine and posting a 4.19 ERA overall.

[FredLynn]

From MLBTR

Speaking of young players returning from injury, Red Sox left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez could potentially miss a few starts at the beginning of the season after undergoing right knee patellofemoral ligament reconstruction surgery, Ian Browne of MLB.com writes. “[The injury] happened, like, three times already,” Rodriguez pointed out. “I was just trying to fight to pitch with a knee like that. And I did it. Sometimes there would be ups and downs. Now it’s time to get back to the guy I was before I got the surgery.” The 24-year-old southpaw’s had his share of ups and downs across parts of three seasons with the Red Sox. Last season, he put up 137 1/3 innings for the club while striking out 9.83 batters per nine and posting a 4.19 ERA overall.

 

I thought he wasn't due back until July.....hmmmm.

[Larry Cook]

I saw somethings g that said he was running back in January. That is a really good sign that the patella problem is fixed and he is good to go. It also said he was throwing off a flat surface.

 

Realistically, he is looking at at least 90 to a 120 days to get the arm strength up and the control locked in.

 

I still think we need to sign Vargas, in case he suffers a setback or has trouble finding his delivery with the newly repaired knee.

[notin]

Yes. The Sox need more lefties...

[moonslav59]

I thought he wasn't due back until July.....hmmmm.

 

Maybe, a "few starts" means 15.

[cp176]

Yes. The Sox need more lefties...

 

you sarcastic scoundrel you

[moonslav59]

Let's assume we sign JD and keep Sale, Pom, Bogaerts & Kelly. We lose HRam, Pablo, Porcello, Kimbrel, Moreland, Thornburg and Holt. This would be the framework of our 2020 roster with a few blanks to be filled by cheap free agent options:

 

SP1: Sale ~$32M

SP2: Price $31M

SP3: ERod ~$13M (arb 3 of 4)

SP4: Wright ~$8+M (arb 3 of 3)

SP5: __________ FA

(or Groome/Mata/Houck/Johnson/Velazquez/Elias/Beeks/Shawaryn)

 

RP1: Smith ~$8M+ (arb 3 of 3)

RP2: __________ FA

RP3: Kelly ~$6M

RP4: Barnes ~$3M (arb 2 of 3)

RP5: Hembree ~$2M (arb 2 of 3)

RP6: Scott ~$1M (arb 1 of 3)

RP7: Workman ~$1.5M (arb 3 of 3)

(or Maddox, Taylor, Buttrey, Shepherd, Jerez (bubble), J Cosart, T Lakins or a converted starter)

 

C: Vazquez ~$6M (arb 3 of 3)

C: Leon (Bubble) ~$2.5M (arb 4 of 4)

C Swihart (Bubble) ~$1M (arb 2 of 3)

 

1B: ________ FA

1B: Travis ~$600K

1B: Ockimey AAA

 

2B: Pedey $14M

2B: Hernandez ~$800K (arb 1 of 3)

 

SS: Bogaerts ~$18M

SS: Chatham AAA

SS: Marrero (bubble)

 

3B: Devers ~$600K

3B: Lin ~$600K

3B: Dalbec AAA

 

LF: Benintendi ~$3M (arb 1 of 3)

LF: Brentz (Bubble) ~$800K

 

CF: Bradley $16M (arb 4 of 4)

 

RF: Betts ~$22M (arb 3 of 3)

 

DH: Martinez ~$25M

DH: Chavis ~$600K

 

Min Roster AVV ~$225M (45 players named- only 40 can be on the roster.)

 

Not on 40 man roster: Thompson, Brannen, Scherff

 

 

Edited February 5, 2018 by moonslav59

[Nick]

I'm sure I read somewhere that Chavis is working out at 1B.

[mvp 78]

I'm sure I read somewhere that Chavis is working out at 1B.

 

Yup, since the AFL started.

[Larry Cook]

Yes. The Sox need more lefties...

 

Amen! The more the merrier.

[moonslav59]

I'm sure I read somewhere that Chavis is working out at 1B.

 

His final resting spot might be DH, but with JD on the roster, he'll probably be traded, although we may have a 1B job open in 2 years

Edited February 5, 2018 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

@nickcafardo

 

Just in case you’re moving on from the Patriots, David Price,Matt Barnes and Steven Wright were among the players working out at Jet Blue Park today. Sandy Leon also came in.

 

A healthy Price and Wright would be a big first step for this team.

[Nick]

@nickcafardo

 

Just in case you’re moving on from the Patriots, David Price,Matt Barnes and Steven Wright were among the players working out at Jet Blue Park today. Sandy Leon also came in.

 

A healthy Price and Wright would be a big first step for this team.

 

Agreed.

 

It's time to think about what we actually have....if we sign JD, great, if not, we move on.

 

Basically we have every position starters back from last season. If someone is unable to go, we have back ups.

 

My guess is Price will be ready to go as long as there are no setbacks. Price, Sale, Porcello and Pom should start most of the games in April with some fill ins...Wright?

 

Our bullpen appears to be in pretty good shape.

 

My team is on the field.

[mvp 78]

Agreed.

 

It's time to think about what we actually have....if we sign JD, great, if not, we move on.

 

Basically we have every position starters back from last season. If someone is unable to go, we have back ups.

 

My guess is Price will be ready to go as long as there are no setbacks. Price, Sale, Porcello and Pom should start most of the games in April with some fill ins...Wright?

 

Our bullpen appears to be in pretty good shape.

 

My team is on the field.

 

Opening Day Lineup:

 

Betts RF

Beni LF

Xander SS

Devers 3B

HRam DH

Moreland 1B

Hernandez 2B

JBJ CF

Vazquez C

 

Sale P

 

Bench - Leon, Swihart, Brentz, Marrero

 

SP - Pomeranz, Price, Wright and Porcello

 

RP - Kimbrel, Smith, Kelly, Barnes, Elias, Hembree, Johnson

 

The will probably need to make a move with one or two of Elias/Hembree/Johnson because none of these guys have options and I'd rather have Scott and Workman in the pen. Holt has an option remaining so they can mess around with Brentz and Swihart before deciding if they want to dump one of them and call up Holt again.

[Bellhorn04]

Agreed.

 

It's time to think about what we actually have....if we sign JD, great, if not, we move on.

 

Basically we have every position starters back from last season. If someone is unable to go, we have back ups.

 

My guess is Price will be ready to go as long as there are no setbacks. Price, Sale, Porcello and Pom should start most of the games in April with some fill ins...Wright?

 

Our bullpen appears to be in pretty good shape.

 

My team is on the field.

 

I'm a bit dubious about the offense if we don't add a bat. If we don't add one and the offense struggles like it did most of last year, it ain't gonna be pretty.

[mvp 78]

I'm a bit dubious about the offense if we don't add a bat. If we don't add one and the offense struggles like it did most of last year, it ain't gonna be pretty.

 

Projections have Hanley at a higher OPS than Frazier or LoMo. Moose and Duda would be lateral moves. JD would be the only move to push the needle.

 

That Moreland move still seems iffy to me.

[moonslav59]

Opening Day Lineup:

 

The will probably need to make a move with one or two of Elias/Hembree/Johnson because none of these guys have options and I'd rather have Scott and Workman in the pen. Holt has an option remaining so they can mess around with Brentz and Swihart before deciding if they want to dump one of them and call up Holt again.

 

soxprospects.com shows Elias with one option. I wouldn't be too worried, if we ended up losing him anyways.

 

You forgot ....

 

Chris Freakin' Sale!

[moonslav59]

Opening Day Lineup:

 

Betts RF

Beni LF

Xander SS

Devers 3B

HRam DH

Moreland 1B

Hernandez 2B

JBJ CF

Vazquez C

 

I'd go with

 

Bogey

Beni

Betts

Devers

HRam

Moreland

JBJ

Hernandez

Vazquez

[Bellhorn04]

Projections have Hanley at a higher OPS than Frazier or LoMo. Moose and Duda would be lateral moves. JD would be the only move to push the needle.

 

That Moreland move still seems iffy to me.

 

Projections for Hanley are meaningless, don't you think? Most of our chat about Hanley has been about making sure that GD option doesn't vest.

 

We have to do something to upgrade IMO. If it isn't JDM, sign Arrieta or something.

 

Standing pat just doesn't cut it.

[moonslav59]

Projections have Hanley at a higher OPS than Frazier or LoMo. Moose and Duda would be lateral moves. JD would be the only move to push the needle.

 

That Moreland move still seems iffy to me.

 

If the bottom falls out of the LoMo market, then the Moreland signing will look even worse than it did initially.

[Bellhorn04]

If the bottom falls out of the LoMo market, then the Moreland signing will look even worse than it did initially.

 

The Moreland signing shouldn't be a crippler though. It's Chris Young money.

[moonslav59]

The Moreland signing shouldn't be a crippler though. It's Chris Young money.

 

His money could have gone towards signing LoMo or a LH'd RP'er or 5th starter.

 

No, not crippling, but what if LoMo ends up signing for $9M/1 or $17M/2?

[mvp 78]

soxprospects.com shows Elias with one option. I wouldn't be too worried, if we ended up losing him anyways.

 

You forgot ....

 

Chris Freakin' Sale!

 

I thought he was out of options. In that case, I replace Elias with Scott.

[Bellhorn04]

His money could have gone towards signing LoMo or a LH'd RP'er or 5th starter.

 

No, not crippling, but what if LoMo ends up signing for $9M/1 or $17M/2?

 

I don't really disagree with you. I just want them to sign Martinez.

[mvp 78]

The Moreland signing shouldn't be a crippler though. It's Chris Young money.

 

It's not a crippler, but it wastes a roster spot on a guy who really can only play one position. He has played some corner OF in the past, but I'm not sure the Sox would have him play there at all.

[moonslav59]

I don't really disagree with you. I just want them to sign Martinez.

 

We coulda had JD & LoMo!

[moonslav59]

It's not a crippler, but it wastes a roster spot on a guy who really can only play one position. He has played some corner OF in the past, but I'm not sure the Sox would have him play there at all.

 

I think LoMo has played a little corner OF as well.