A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[mvp 78]

Or kept Youkilis at first where he belonged

 

That wouldn't have prevented his decline.

[mvp 78]

What's funny though is that I remember a lot of criticism over signing Beltre in the first place. I'm not saying you specifically, but I do remember a lot of people hating that move.

 

I was against re-signing him for the type of contract that he received. Obviously, I was wrong about that. However, the players that we receive in comp picks do affect the overall rating of that decision.

 

Not on here. It was a one year deal. A flier on a top end talent that struggled offensively in a s***** hitter's park. At worst, you were getting a gold glove at 3b for one year.

[mvp 78]

Even if the Red Sox don't have the current best offer?

 

I don't know the current offers, but that could be a reasonable strategy for the Red Sox.

 

As an unrelated side note, a blogger disputes the "cliff":

 

https://www.overthemonster.com/2018/1/10/16871560/red-sox-two-year-window-myth-betts-sale-benintendi-devers-bogaerts

 

I agree with the sentiment, but don't say s*** like this: "They’re the freaking Red Sox, full stop."

 

The freaking Red Sox were in last damn place 3 out of 4 years. They aren't infallible.

[Kimmi]

As an unrelated side note, a blogger disputes the "cliff":

 

https://www.overthemonster.com/2018/1/10/16871560/red-sox-two-year-window-myth-betts-sale-benintendi-devers-bogaerts

 

I don't think he makes a very strong case for his opinion. He says that the Red Sox can re-sign or sign any player that they want to, and that Henry has shown a willingness to spend. Well, yes, that's all true. Retaining all of our young core is not at all realistic, however. The budget is not limitless.

[Kimmi]

Not on here. It was a one year deal. A flier on a top end talent that struggled offensively in a s***** hitter's park. At worst, you were getting a gold glove at 3b for one year.

 

You don't have to sell me on it. I loved the deal. It's my kind of deal. (So was the Mike Cameron signing).

 

I just remember hearing a lot of disagreement about signing him. For some reason, SeaBeachFred comes to mind, though I can't say for sure he was one that was against it.

[Kimmi]

I agree with the sentiment, but don't say s*** like this: "They’re the freaking Red Sox, full stop."

 

The freaking Red Sox were in last damn place 3 out of 4 years. They aren't infallible.

 

I don't like that sentence that you quoted, but not because of our last place finishes, which have nothing to do with anything, but because being the 'freaking Red Sox' doesn't mean that we can sign whomever we want. That's just not realistic, for many reasons.

[mvp 78]

I don't think he makes a very strong case for his opinion. He says that the Red Sox can re-sign or sign any player that they want to, and that Henry has shown a willingness to spend. Well, yes, that's all true. Retaining all of our young core is not at all realistic, however. The budget is not limitless.

 

The problem being is that JBJ, Beni and Xander won't be max $$$ deals. They are going to be cheap enough to re-sign. The early speculation was "how could we sign all these guys to $20M AAV deals", but I don't think the majority of them will even sniff $15M. Once Panda and Hanley's contracts are off the books, you can re-sign Xander and JBJ and Mookie if they want to.

[mvp 78]

I don't like that sentence that you quoted, but not because of our last place finishes, which have nothing to do with anything, but because being the 'freaking Red Sox' doesn't mean that we can sign whomever we want. That's just not realistic, for many reasons.

 

That last sentence is all mine.

 

The last place finishes proves that "they're the freaking Red Sox" is a meaningless sentiment.

[mvp 78]

You don't have to sell me on it. I loved the deal. It's my kind of deal. (So was the Mike Cameron signing).

 

I just remember hearing a lot of disagreement about signing him. For some reason, SeaBeachFred comes to mind, though I can't say for sure he was one that was against it.

 

I'm glad I wasn't a part of whatever hellscape you guys and gals were posting at. That sounds terrible.

 

SBF probably didn't like him because Beltre struggled offensively with the Dodgers at times (even though he was basically a 3 WAR player every year). He had a career year in 04 and then went to the Mariners were he "struggled again" (for different reasons). Then Beltre had another resurgence in 10. SBF is the type of guy who believes players can force themselves to have career years when playing for a contract (though we know that's not the case). He probably just thought it was a fluke season. To me, it was worth the risk to have a HOF 3b for a while.

[Kimmi]

The problem being is that JBJ, Beni and Xander won't be max $$$ deals. They are going to be cheap enough to re-sign. The early speculation was "how could we sign all these guys to $20M AAV deals", but I don't think the majority of them will even sniff $15M. Once Panda and Hanley's contracts are off the books, you can re-sign Xander and JBJ and Mookie if they want to.

 

That's fair enough. Then what about pitching? And what about replacing our 1st and 2nd basemen?

[Kimmi]

I'm glad I wasn't a part of whatever hellscape you guys and gals were posting at. That sounds terrible.

 

SBF probably didn't like him because Beltre struggled offensively with the Dodgers at times (even though he was basically a 3 WAR player every year). He had a career year in 04 and then went to the Mariners were he "struggled again" (for different reasons). Then Beltre had another resurgence in 10. SBF is the type of guy who believes players can force themselves to have career years when playing for a contract (though we know that's not the case). He probably just thought it was a fluke season. To me, it was worth the risk to have a HOF 3b for a while.

 

I meant that SBF was against signing Beltre to the original one year deal. He was probably all for trying to re-sign him.

[mvp 78]

I meant that SBF was against signing Beltre to the original one year deal. He was probably all for trying to re-sign him.

 

Oh, well, he's just a dum dum sometimes.

[mvp 78]

That's fair enough. Then what about pitching? And what about replacing our 1st and 2nd basemen?

 

What about them? If Sale hits FA, sign someone else. If Pom hits FA, sign someone else. Or try developing pitching for once?

 

1st base is always an easy fill. There is never a lack of FA's.

 

2nd base isn't a concern for me. The Sox have found a ton of IF guys that are good enough (i.e. Marco Hernandez).

[Hitch]

 

As an unrelated side note, a blogger disputes the "cliff":

 

https://www.overthemonster.com/2018/1/10/16871560/red-sox-two-year-window-myth-betts-sale-benintendi-devers-bogaerts

 

I just happened to read this. Whatever your opinion on 'the cliff' this is a piece of garbage.

 

Regardless of the wealth of the Red Sox owners they are not going to go over the wage bill to any means to keep them relevant/winning. Not to mention we've had 3 last places finishes recently. We're hardly bullet proof.

 

And it's probably not a great idea starting your article about slamming 'cliffs' by suggesting the dominance of one era is soon to be over for the Patriots and one is about to start for Celtics.

[notin]

That wouldn't have prevented his decline.

 

 

His OPS dropped 140 points in one year when he was moved to a more physically demanding position at age 32. Certainly keeping him at first could have slowed down his decline.

 

But for some reason the Sox wanted a big name at first. And in order to get one, they hastened the end off one all star first baseman, traded away another, and walked away from a future Hall of Famer. All to accommodate a guy who didn't live up top his hype, didn't like Boston, and eventually became part of the biggest salary dump in team history.

 

But on the bright side, we did eventually get a few innings of Carson Smith from this fiasco in the long run. ..

[jacksonianmarch]

I don't think he makes a very strong case for his opinion. He says that the Red Sox can re-sign or sign any player that they want to, and that Henry has shown a willingness to spend. Well, yes, that's all true. Retaining all of our young core is not at all realistic, however. The budget is not limitless.

 

This is the point. There is no way to retain all your players at FA level prices

[cp176]

I don't think he makes a very strong case for his opinion. He says that the Red Sox can re-sign or sign any player that they want to, and that Henry has shown a willingness to spend. Well, yes, that's all true. Retaining all of our young core is not at all realistic, however. The budget is not limitless.

 

I think that most of our young core has a great deal to prove before they even come close to hitting any big payday. Betts, sure I get that. Maybe Benintendi. I just never have been enamored of all of this great young talent that we are supposed to have.

[Nick]

Right now we have the highest luxury tax payroll. It's simply going to be difficult to move out under it.

 

We'll have to endure two more years of Sandoval's contract, $20M/year. It's a money that should not be earmarked for another player.

 

We may have to put more faith in our younger, cost controlled players.

 

Rick Porcello, two more years at $20M. I don't care how good he pitches, his contract has to lapse. Pom will become FA for 2019 and I'm guessing he's a bigger priority than Porcello. One of these two spots has to go to a cost controlled player.

 

For 2019

Price, Sale, Pom, E Rod, Wright or any young kids. Hope for big year from Porcello in 2018 and then trade him. We can't re-sign Pom after 2018 and also keep Porcello for 2019. Give our young guys a shot in the 5th spot.

 

Learn to live without Kimbrel. We can't afford to give a closer 4-5 year deals at $15M+ annually. Carson Smith as a closer for 2019. There are tons of young arms that can go to the bullpen.

 

Learn to live without Hanley. Platoon him in 2018 and let his contract expire.

 

2018 Price, Sale, Pom, E Rod and Porcell Kimbrell

2019 Price, Sale, E Rod, Wright (?), young pitcher Carson

 

2018 Vazquez, Moreland/Hanley, Pedey, Xander, Devers, Beni, JBJ, Betts, Martinez (?) or combination players or another cheaper bat

2019 Vazquez, Moreland/Travis, Pedey, Xander, Devers, Beni, JBJ, Betts, Martinez (?) or combination of players or another cheaper bat

 

This is still a competitive lineup that can get into the playoffs.

 

Set a red line for Martinez. Let Borass come to us. Don't give in to his demands. Remind him of Steven Drew fiasco.

Edited January 10, 2018 by Nick

[oldtimer]

Right now we have the highest luxury tax payroll. It's simply going to be difficult to move out under it.

 

We'll have to endure two more years of Sandoval's contract, $20M/year. It's a money that should not be earmarked for another player.

 

We may have to put more faith in our younger, cost controlled players.

 

Rick Porcello, two more years at $20M. I don't care how good he pitches, his contract has to lapse. Pom will become FA for 2019 and I'm guessing he's a bigger priority than Porcello. One of these two spots has to go to a cost controlled player.

 

For 2019

Price, Sale, Pom, E Rod, Wright or any young kids. Hope for big year from Porcello in 2018 and then trade him. We can't re-sign Pom after 2018 and also keep Porcello for 2019. Give our young guys a shot in the 5th spot.

 

Learn to live without Kimbrel. We can't afford to give a closer 4-5 year deals at $15M+ annually. Carson Smith as a closer for 2019. There are tons of young arms that can go to the bullpen.

 

Learn to live without Hanley. Platoon him in 2018 and let his contract expire.

 

2018 Price, Sale, Pom, E Rod and Porcell Kimbrell

2019 Price, Sale, E Rod, Wright (?), young pitcher Carson

 

2018 Vazquez, Moreland/Hanley, Pedey, Xander, Devers, Beni, JBJ, Betts, Martinez (?) or combination players or another cheaper bat

2019 Vazquez, Moreland/Travis, Pedey, Xander, Devers, Beni, JBJ, Betts, Martinez (?) or combination of players or another cheaper bat

 

This is still a competitive lineup that can get into the playoffs.

 

Set a red line for Martinez. Let Borass come to us. Don't give in to his demands. Remind him of Steven Drew fiasco.

 

I think the Sox front office has several goals:

 

1. Put together a competitive team capable for competing for the league championship

2. Structure the team so that it can remain competitve every year

3. Keep the cost under control, especially in relation to the Lxury Tax threshold (where possible)

 

These are competing goals that have been made difficult to fulfill as the result of bad contracts, which I would define as not providing value in relation to the money spent.

 

The ones that have not produced in relation to the money spent are in my view:

 

1. Sandoval Got nothing for a long term $19 mil contract

2. Castillo Nothing for a $12 mil long term contract (not luxury tax but still a waste)

3. Pedroia Sentimental contract for a Sox hero, but unlikely to have value relative to the money spent

4. Rameriz At least there has been some return for the money spent but the value hasn't been there

5.Price Paying a long term ace money contract for a pitcher with a lot on innings on his arm is not a value play and so far looks like a large mistake.

6. Craig Finally we are almost completely past that controll which provided no value for a long term fairly expensive contract.

 

GM's should be allowed room to make some mistakes but these contract have and will continue to limit our options going forward. I find it hard to criticize contracts for Pomeranz, Kimbrel and Porcello as each have provided value for the money paid.

[Nick]

I think the Sox front office has several goals:

 

1. Put together a competitive team capable for competing for the league championship

2. Structure the team so that it can remain competitve every year

3. Keep the cost under control, especially in relation to the Lxury Tax threshold (where possible)

 

These are competing goals that have been made difficult to fulfill as the result of bad contracts, which I would define as not providing value in relation to the money spent.

 

The ones that have not produced in relation to the money spent are in my view:

 

1. Sandoval Got nothing for a long term $19 mil contract

2. Castillo Nothing for a $12 mil long term contract (not luxury tax but still a waste)

3. Pedroia Sentimental contract for a Sox hero, but unlikely to have value relative to the money spent

4. Rameriz At least there has been some return for the money spent but the value hasn't been there

5.Price Paying a long term ace money contract for a pitcher with a lot on innings on his arm is not a value play and so far looks like a large mistake.

6. Craig Finally we are almost completely past that controll which provided no value for a long term fairly expensive contract.

 

GM's should be allowed room to make some mistakes but these contract have and will continue to limit our options going forward. I find it hard to criticize contracts for Pomeranz, Kimbrel and Porcello as each have provided value for the money paid.

 

All great points...

 

1 spot on

2 spot on, contract is what's holding him up from getting a chance in the majors, IRONIC

3 some guys pique early, physicality is critical....he'll go down hill fast

4 spot on, now I'm hoping for no vesting.

5 I still hold hope for him, we need to win the World Series to justify his contract. $31M is the big albatross on our luxury tax payroll every time I look at Sox budget.

6 spot on

 

Basically in 2017, Henry paid out $41M or so to three players (Sandoval, Craig and Castillo) not to be on 40 man roster.........unreal.

[mvp 78]

Remind him of Steven Drew fiasco.

 

Drew doesn't have anything to do with JD Martinez tho?

[mvp 78]

I think the Sox front office has several goals:

 

1. Put together a competitive team capable for competing for the league championship

2. Structure the team so that it can remain competitve every year

3. Keep the cost under control, especially in relation to the Lxury Tax threshold (where possible)

 

These are competing goals that have been made difficult to fulfill as the result of bad contracts, which I would define as not providing value in relation to the money spent.

 

The ones that have not produced in relation to the money spent are in my view:

 

1. Sandoval Got nothing for a long term $19 mil contract

2. Castillo Nothing for a $12 mil long term contract (not luxury tax but still a waste)

3. Pedroia Sentimental contract for a Sox hero, but unlikely to have value relative to the money spent

4. Rameriz At least there has been some return for the money spent but the value hasn't been there

5.Price Paying a long term ace money contract for a pitcher with a lot on innings on his arm is not a value play and so far looks like a large mistake.

6. Craig Finally we are almost completely past that controll which provided no value for a long term fairly expensive contract.

 

GM's should be allowed room to make some mistakes but these contract have and will continue to limit our options going forward. I find it hard to criticize contracts for Pomeranz, Kimbrel and Porcello as each have provided value for the money paid.

 

[Nick]

Drew doesn't have anything to do with JD Martinez tho?

 

My only point was "don't get too greedy, best offer on the table may get pulled. then what?"

[Kimmi]

What about them? If Sale hits FA, sign someone else. If Pom hits FA, sign someone else. Or try developing pitching for once?

 

1st base is always an easy fill. There is never a lack of FA's.

 

2nd base isn't a concern for me. The Sox have found a ton of IF guys that are good enough (i.e. Marco Hernandez).

 

Easier said than done. Where's the money coming from?

 

And sure, we could develop our own starting pitching. In time for 2020 or 2021?

[Kimmi]

I just happened to read this. Whatever your opinion on 'the cliff' this is a piece of garbage.

 

Regardless of the wealth of the Red Sox owners they are not going to go over the wage bill to any means to keep them relevant/winning. Not to mention we've had 3 last places finishes recently. We're hardly bullet proof.

 

And it's probably not a great idea starting your article about slamming 'cliffs' by suggesting the dominance of one era is soon to be over for the Patriots and one is about to start for Celtics.

 

I was also not impressed by the article. As I said, I don't think Collins defended his opinion well at all.

[Kimmi]

This is the point. There is no way to retain all your players at FA level prices

 

On this, we agree.

 

And we don't have the cost controlled players to replace them.

[Kimmi]

I think that most of our young core has a great deal to prove before they even come close to hitting any big payday. Betts, sure I get that. Maybe Benintendi. I just never have been enamored of all of this great young talent that we are supposed to have.

 

Even if they don't prove to be as good as they are projected to be, when they all, including our starting pitching, hit free agency within 1-2 years of each other, it's going to be hard to retain or replace that magnitude of players.

[moonslav59]

No, I would rather have had Beltre. The comp picks are just lottery tickets IMO and Sox got lucky.

 

I'd rather have Beltre, too and said so.

 

BTW, we have a very good track record with comp picks since 2005-- maybe even better than top 15 picks. Maybe it's luck: maybe we should expect it.

 

2005:

Ellsbury & Lowrie for OCab

Bowden & Hansen (part of Manny-Jay Bay trade) for D Lowe

Buchholz & Egan for Pedro

 

2006:

Daniel Bard & Kris Johnson for Damon

Caleb Clay & Aaron Bates for Mueller

 

2007:

Nick Hagadone (part of Masterson-VMart trade) for Alex Gonzalez

Ryan Dent for Foulke

 

2008:

Bryan Price for Gagne

Stephen Fife for H Morris

 

2010:

K Vitek & A Ranaudo (traded for R Ross)for Billy Wagner

B Brentz & B Workman for Jason Bay

 

2011:

Matt Barnes & Henry Owens for VMart

Blake Swihart and JBJ for Beltre

 

2012:

Brian Jonson and Pat Light (traded for Abad) for Paplebon

 

2014:

Michael Kopech (part of Cris Sale trade) for Ellsbury

 

I wish I won the lottery as often as this!

 

[moonslav59]

I don't think he makes a very strong case for his opinion. He says that the Red Sox can re-sign or sign any player that they want to, and that Henry has shown a willingness to spend. Well, yes, that's all true. Retaining all of our young core is not at all realistic, however. The budget is not limitless.

 

Yes, Henry has always kept us very close to the luxury tax limit.

[moonslav59]

Pedroia Sentimental contract for a Sox hero, but unlikely to have value relative to the money spent

 

He was underpaid (by market value) on that contract.