A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[notin]

I take Morrison there. I hope Dombrowski makes him an offer today and if he signs, withdraw the offer to Martinez.

[harmony]

I take Morrison there. I hope Dombrowski makes him an offer today and if he signs, withdraw the offer to Martinez.

That assumes J.D. Martinez has not already rejected the reported Red Sox offer.

 

If the Red Sox have not made the best offer to date J.D. Martinez and his agent may be waiting on the Sox to top the best offer.

[notin]

That assumes J.D. Martinez has not already rejected the reported Red Sox offer.

 

If the Red Sox have not made the best offer to date J.D. Martinez and his agent may be waiting on the Sox to top the best offer.

 

 

If he has, then it's even easier. ..

[moonslav59]

I take Morrison there. I hope Dombrowski makes him an offer today and if he signs, withdraw the offer to Martinez.

 

We could probably sign Morrison and a decent SP'er for much less money & years than JD.

 

If we can find a taker for HRam and a decent chunk of his contract, we might be able to get Arrieta & Morrison.

[moonslav59]

Change of subject: here's a look at our top prospects according to soxprospects.com by age group and ranking:

 

Red= ML Ready or possibly ML Ready at some point this season.

 

19 and under

1. Groome 19

3. B Mata 18

7. C Brannen 19

9. A Scherff 19

15. R Raudes 19

17. D Diaz 17

 

20-22

2. Chavis 22

4. T Houck 21

6. Ockimey 22

14. D Hernandez 21

 

 

23-25

5. S Travis 24

8. M Shawaryn 23

10. J Beeks 24

12. CJ Chatham 23

13. B Dalbec 22

16. J Thompson 23

18. T Lin 23

19. T Lakins 23

 

26+

11. B Johnson 27

20. B Brentz 29

21. A Maddox 26

22. H Velazquez 29

 

 

 

Edited January 12, 2018 by moonslav59

[oldtimer]

Change of subject: here's a look at our top prospects according to soxprospects.com by age group and ranking:

 

Red= ML Ready or possibly ML Ready at some point this season.

 

19 and under

1. Groome 19

3. B Mata 18

7. C Brannen 19

9. A Scherff 19

15. R Raudes 19

17. D Diaz 17

 

20-22

2. Chavis 22

4. T Houck 21

6. Ockimey 22

14. D Hernandez 21

 

 

23-25

5. S Travis 24

8. M Shawaryn 23

10. J Beeks 24

12. CJ Chatham 23

13. B Dalbec 22

16. J Thompson 23

18. T Lin 23

19. T Lakins 23

 

26+

11. B Johnson 27

20. B Brentz 29

21. A Maddox 26

22. H Velazquez 29

 

 

 

 

I read the same thing however believe needs might determine who of those or others, if any, are called up. You know I believe a player like Brannen with excellent speed and a good arm could easily do the job up the middle in the outfield. He is very young, but a year of maturity with increased strength and a chance to hit near big league pitching might land him in consideration for Sept call up. Can't teach speed. I think he is 9th on the Sox prospect list going into this season.

[moonslav59]

I read the same thing however believe needs might determine who of those or others, if any, are called up. You know I believe a player like Brannen with excellent speed and a good arm could easily do the job up the middle in the outfield. He is very young, but a year of maturity with increased strength and a chance to hit near big league pitching might land him in consideration for Sept call up. Can't teach speed. I think he is 9th on the Sox prospect list going into this season.

 

I think it's a long shot he make the ML roster even in 2019, but hope springs eternal sometimes, even in winter.

[mvp 78]

If the bidding gets too high for JD, I still think we may have missed an opportunity to get a slugger and improve our infield defense by signing Moustakas and moving Devers to 1B/DH.

 

As few bidders there seem to be for JD, I'm not sure anyone is looking seriously at Moose.

 

The Moreland signing probably put an end to any 3B searches.

 

Moose is cheaper, but you get what you pay for.

[mvp 78]

I was just reading that JD is willing to wait into spring training to sign because he thinks he is worth 6 years @ $30 mil plus per year. His demands are still unrealistic, and it doesn't seem like he's willing to budge. That might just be posturing, but I am getting to the point where I'm ready to move on from him.

 

I want JD, but if he's going to wait until ST, it's not in DD's best interest to hold off roster construction until March. There are other power bats out there. DD should start kicking the tires and send out smoke signals. Maybe it'd get JD to just sign the damn contract.

[mvp 78]

Rob Bradford

‏Verified account @bradfo

6m6 minutes ago

 

Dustin Pedroia just told @Bradfo_Sho he is eyeing being ready for Opening Day.

 

That's probably a bit unrealistic, but perhaps Pedroia will be back sooner than expected.

 

I wouldn't count him out.

 

He's eyeing to be ready, but he won't be. Players aren't the best barometer for their own timetable (i.e. remember Price's magically healing arm).

[mvp 78]

Moreland signed basically the same contract as Chris Young and Johnny Gomes, neither of whom were brought in to start.

 

Moustakas is being terribly ignored. Ditto Lucroy. And also Logan Morrison, whose late 2016 makes his 2017 look more legitimate. And even when he was not much of a hitter, he always seems to have hit well at Fenway...

 

LoMo probably has more upside than Lucroy. Lucroy's bat took a step back this year and was more valuable since he played at a low offensive output position.

[mvp 78]

If we are really looking at JD as a DH, then maybe plan B could still be...

 

Logan Morrison as a DH

 

Moustakas at 3B & move Devers to DH.

 

Platoon DH? Pass.

 

Devers >>> Moose

[mvp 78]

That assumes J.D. Martinez has not already rejected the reported Red Sox offer.

 

If the Red Sox have not made the best offer to date J.D. Martinez and his agent may be waiting on the Sox to top the best offer.

 

There's is no indication that any other club has a better offer on the table than the Sox. If there was, we'd all be hearing about it.

[a700hitter]

I want JD, but if he's going to wait until ST, it's not in DD's best interest to hold off roster construction until March. There are other power bats out there. DD should start kicking the tires and send out smoke signals. Maybe it'd get JD to just sign the damn contract.

if he sits and waits, he limits his options and weakens his negotiating position.

[mvp 78]

if he sits and waits, he limits his options and weakens his negotiating position.

 

Pretty much. I'm not really convinced JD will get more $$$ just by waiting. There's a better chance that teams just move on and fill their roster without him.

[Bellhorn04]

if he sits and waits, he limits his options and weakens his negotiating position.

 

OTOH, what exactly is JD's negotiating position? At the moment he doesn't have a job for 2018.

[mvp 78]

@alexspeier

 

ICYMI: Red Sox chairman Tom Werner met recently with Scott Boras. Nonetheless, as of yesterday, talks about JD Martinez remained at a standstill.

 

Cuz sending that guy is going to get it done...

[a700hitter]

OTOH, what exactly is JD's negotiating position? At the moment he doesn't have a job for 2018.

All we need is one other interested team to throw a wrench into our offseason plan.

[moonslav59]

Platoon DH? Pass.

 

Devers >>> Moose

 

If we got Moose, there would be no DH platoon.

 

Moose greatly improves our IF defense.

 

Moose gives us the power clean-up hitter we need.

 

Devers greatly improves our DH numbers. He could play 1B vs LHPs and DH vs RHPs.

 

Moreland plays 1B vs all RHPs.

 

HRam plays 1B vs all LHPs.

 

HRam DHs when Moose or Devers need a day off.

 

The platoon is 1B not DH.

 

(We could also try to dump HRam.)

[moonslav59]

All we need is one other interested team to throw a wrench into our offseason plan.

 

Maybe, but why would someone suddenly realize they have an OF need and that kind of money to spend?

 

The only reason I could see a late bidder enter the market, is if a team thought JD was going to get $150M/6 and now realizes the top bid is just $125M/5 and now wants in. How many teams fit that mold? (None?)

 

Another reason could be some key player gets hurt in a motorcycle accident or whatever in the next few weeks.

 

It could just be the Sox vs the Jays.

[harmony]

There's is no indication that any other club has a better offer on the table than the Sox. If there was, we'd all be hearing about it.

Negotiations are not open to the public.

 

Free agents often sign with teams that were not speculated to be among the favorites.

 

Carlos Santana signed last month with the Phillies and six years ago Prince Fielder signed with the Tigers after a private dance between Dave Dombrowski and Scott Boras.

 

I would not be surprised if the current best offer was from another club and J.D. Martinez is waiting for the Red Sox to top it. The other club might be feeling good about now if its front office thinks the Sox won't budge from their current offer.

[mvp 78]

Maybe, but why would someone suddenly realize they have an OF need and that kind of money to spend?

 

The only reason I could see a late bidder enter the market, is if a team thought JD was going to get $150M/6 and now realizes the top bid is just $125M/5 and now wants in. How many teams fit that mold? (None?)

 

Another reason could be some key player gets hurt in a motorcycle accident or whatever in the next few weeks.

 

It could just be the Sox vs the Jays.

 

The Jays are known for winning the offseason and following it up by being mediocre. Maybe they can go all in again.

[harmony]

Maybe, but why would someone suddenly realize they have an OF need and that kind of money to spend?

 

The only reason I could see a late bidder enter the market, is if a team thought JD was going to get $150M/6 and now realizes the top bid is just $125M/5 and now wants in. How many teams fit that mold? (None?)

 

Another reason could be some key player gets hurt in a motorcycle accident or whatever in the next few weeks.

 

It could just be the Sox vs the Jays.

Many on this forum assume that the Red Sox have made the best offer to J.D. Martinez and that only a "late bidder" can top that offer.

 

I suspect Martinez has received multiple offers and that the reported Red Sox offer is not the best (or perhaps even the second-best). Martinez and Boras, sensing that the Sox are under the most pressure to sign the top free agent hitter, may be holding out to see whether the Red Sox will top the best offer.

 

Martinez may be waiting on the Red Sox as opposed to the Sox waiting on Martinez.

[moonslav59]

Many on this forum assume that the Red Sox have made the best offer to J.D. Martinez and that only a "late bidder" can top that offer.

 

I suspect Martinez has received multiple offers and that the reported Red Sox offer is not the best (or perhaps even the second-best). Martinez and Boras, sensing that the Sox are under the most pressure to sign the top free agent hitter, may be holding out to see whether the Red Sox will top the best offer.

 

Martinez may be waiting on the Red Sox as opposed to the Sox waiting on Martinez.

 

If BorA$$ wants the Sox to up their offer to top another, he wouldn't suggest JD want to play the OF over DH'ing. To me, that is a clue that we have the best offer, and BorA$$ is trying to get another team interested by thinking maybe they just need to come close to the Sox offer, and JD will choose them, because they can promise FT OF.

[moonslav59]

Negotiations are not open to the public.

 

Free agents often sign with teams that were not speculated to be among the favorites.

 

Carlos Santana signed last month with the Phillies and six years ago Prince Fielder signed with the Tigers after a private dance between Dave Dombrowski and Scott Boras.

 

I would not be surprised if the current best offer was from another club and J.D. Martinez is waiting for the Red Sox to top it. The other club might be feeling good about now if its front office thinks the Sox won't budge from their current offer.

 

I wouldn't be shocked (or heartbroken), if JD signs elsewhere, as long as we make some sort of significant improvement over our 2017 team (on paper).

[mvp 78]

If BorA$$ wants the Sox to up their offer to top another, he wouldn't suggest JD want to play the OF over DH'ing. To me, that is a clue that we have the best offer, and BorA$$ is trying to get another team interested by thinking maybe they just need to come close to the Sox offer, and JD will choose them, because they can promise FT OF.

 

That's what I've been saying.

[harmony]

If BorA$$ wants the Sox to up their offer to top another, he wouldn't suggest JD want to play the OF over DH'ing. To me, that is a clue that we have the best offer, and BorA$$ is trying to get another team interested by thinking maybe they just need to come close to the Sox offer, and JD will choose them, because they can promise FT OF.

Has Scott Boras said anything about J.D. Martinez as a designated hitter since making these statements in mid-December?

 

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2017/12/jd_martinez_rumors_free_agent.html

 

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/clubhouse_insider/2017/12/scott_boras_praises_potential_red_sox_targets_jd_martinez

[harmony]

I wouldn't be shocked (or heartbroken), if JD signs elsewhere, as long as we make some sort of significant improvement over our 2017 team (on paper).

Absent collusion, the team that signs J.D. Martinez will almost certainly overpay.

 

The Red Sox may not want to be that team.

[mvp 78]

Absent collusion, the team that signs J.D. Martinez will almost certainly overpay.

 

The Red Sox may not want to be that team.

 

If DD has a price and sticks to it, I can't blame him if he gets outbid. He knows the payroll budget much better than any of us.

[Elktonnick]

If DD has a price and sticks to it, I can't blame him if he gets outbid. He knows the payroll budget much better than any of us.

 

Anyone agreeing in 2018 to pay a ballplayer who will be 37 years old in 6 years nearly 30 million in that 6th year is fiscally irresponsible.