A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox get three more years of Carson Smith, who has posted 0.3 bWAR in 11 appearances with the Red Sox since the trade. The Sox also have four years of Roenis Elias, who has posted a negative 0.4 bWAR in four appearances, including one start.

 

Wade Miley posted 0.5 bWAR in 19 starts for the Mariners before being traded for Ariel Miranda, who remains under team control for five seasons after posting 1.9 bWAR in 42 appearances, including 39 starts, since his trade. Seattle also has six years of Jonathan Aro, who posted 0.1 bWAR in a single appearance with the Mariners.

 

Carson Smith may help the Red Sox play catch-up in that trade of Miley and Aro for Smith and Elias.

 

We should win that trade, barring further injury to Smith.

[mvp 78]

IIRC, Youk was put in the OF because of somebody getting injured and there were no other bench players?

 

Nope, it was a choice between Hinske and Youk to play OF and the other would play 1B. They were just messing around at the end of 2006 I guess? http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=1935&position=1B/3B&type=&gds=&gde=&season=2006

[mvp 78]

The Red Sox get three more years of Carson Smith, who has posted 0.3 bWAR in 11 appearances with the Red Sox since the trade. The Sox also have four years of Roenis Elias, who has posted a negative 0.4 bWAR in four appearances, including one start.

 

Wade Miley posted 0.5 bWAR in 19 starts for the Mariners before being traded for Ariel Miranda, who remains under team control for five seasons after posting 1.9 bWAR in 42 appearances, including 39 starts, since his trade. Seattle also has six years of Jonathan Aro, who posted 0.1 bWAR in a single appearance with the Mariners.

 

Carson Smith may help the Red Sox play catch-up in that trade of Miley and Aro for Smith and Elias.

 

Whoever the Mariners received for Miley has no bearing on if the trade was better for the Sox or Mariners.

[Bellhorn04]

Whoever the Mariners received for Miley has no bearing on if the trade was better for the Sox or Mariners.

 

I have to agree with harmony and disagree with you on that one.

[moonslav59]

I disagree. IMO, it's very similar to decision to call Devers up to the bigs after Dombrowski said he would not be rushed up. It was a panic move. The difference is that Devers worked out, Swihart didn't.

 

I agree that Vazquez was considered to be the catcher of the future, but he was not completely ready to return yet. I believe it was a move based off of an extremely, extremely small sample of games.

 

I disagree. I feel they already had serious doubts about his defense before the small sample size.

 

It's not like they were the only people in baseball thinking Swihart was not great defensively.

 

Sure, the need in LF steered them to teach Swihart OF before maybe 1B, but I don't think it was desperate.

 

(I think they tried to trade for someone, Beltran maybe?, but it didn't work, so they got stuck with plan B.

[mvp 78]

And yet, that expectation was not reasonable with Hanley. Go figure.

 

Swihart didn't gain 30 lbs of muscle forcing him off of SS tho.

[mvp 78]

I have to agree with harmony and disagree with you on that one.

 

So if the Sox trade Smith at the 2020 deadline for the future Barry Bonds, the Sox will win the deal?

[Bellhorn04]

So if the Sox trade Smith at the 2020 deadline for the future Barry Bonds, the Sox will win the deal?

 

I don't know about that, but I don't think you can just disregard what the M's got by trading Miley - if you're really interested in determining who 'won' the trade.

[mvp 78]

I don't know about that, but I don't think you can just disregard what the M's got by trading Miley - if you're really interested in determining who 'won' the trade.

 

Then I don't think you can disregard what the Sox trade Smith for and then what that guy gets traded for and then what that guy gets traded for.

[moonslav59]

I don't know about that, but I don't think you can just disregard what the M's got by trading Miley - if you're really interested in determining who 'won' the trade.

 

True, but that was not really the trade. I can see both arguments.

 

It's like those who complain about us not keeping Beltre, and not counting the comp picks we got for him (JBJ & Swihart).

 

How about our trade for Melancon? The fact that we traded him later, before he got really good may or may not change how we view that original trade.

Edited January 8, 2018 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

Then I don't think you can disregard what the Sox trade Smith for and then what that guy gets traded for and then what that guy gets traded for.

 

Maybe so. The further down the line you go the fuzzier things can get. I was just looking at the fact that we have Smith until 2020, so is it fair to only count what the M's only got out of Miley while they had him? That wouldn't be an equitable comparison IMO.

[moonslav59]

Maybe so. The further down the line you go the fuzzier things can get. I was just looking at the fact that we have Smith until 2020, so is it fair to only count what the M's only got out of Miley while they had him? That wouldn't be an equitable comparison IMO.

 

I believe they had more than 1 year of control of Miley, so technically, if you just judge the players traded, you should count Miley's performance in all original control years before and after the second trade.

 

Both ways of judging have their flaws and perks.

[harmony]

Whoever the Mariners received for Miley has no bearing on if the trade was better for the Sox or Mariners.

Removing Ariel Miranda from the equation, the trade has generated 0.6 bWAR for the Mariners and a negative 0.1 bWAR for the Red Sox.

 

Since the trade Carson Smith has posted 0.2 fWAR, Roenis Elias a negative 0.2 fWAR, Wade Miley 0.6 fWAR for the Mariners, Jonathan Aro 0.0 fWAR and Ariel Miranda 0.1 fWAR for the Mariners.

Edited January 9, 2018 by harmony

[Bellhorn04]

I believe they had more than 1 year of control of Miley, so technically, if you just judge the players traded, you should count Miley's performance in all original control years before and after the second trade.

 

That might be a fair way to do it.

[Station 13]

Swihart was doing OK until he got hurt though.

 

Thanks Farrell.

[harmony]

We should win that trade, barring further injury to Smith.

I suspect the Mariners would prefer five years of Ariel Miranda to three years of Carson Smith and four years of Roenis Elias (even after Seattle's early lead in WAR production).

 

Seattle waived Jonathan Aro in November.

 

Steamer and FanGraphs Depth Charts project Carson Smith with a 2018 ERA of 3.81 in 65 innings for 0.8 and 0.5 WAR, respectively:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13172&position=P

 

Just as the Red Sox traded high on Wade Miley, the Mariners probably traded high on Carson Smith. A good trade should benefit each team.

Edited January 9, 2018 by harmony

[mvp 78]

Removing Ariel Miranda from the equation, the trade has generated 0.6 bWAR for the Mariners and a negative 0.1 bWAR for the Red Sox.

 

Since the trade Carson Smith has posted 0.2 fWAR, Roenis Elias a negative 0.2 fWAR, Wade Miley 0.6 fWAR for the Mariners, Jonathan Aro 0.0 fWAR and Ariel Miranda 0.1 fWAR for the Mariners.

 

Great but I don’t believe Ariel Miranda was included in the Sox trade.

[moonslav59]

That might be a fair way to do it.

 

I think looking at the various ways of judging a trade in totality is probably best, but going by just how the players did after the trade during just the years of team control at the time of the trade makes for some pretty eye-opening viewpoints. Here's a couple examples:

 

Trade 1

12/14/11: The Sox traded Jed Lowrie and Kyle Weiland for Mark Melancon. Mark did not do all that well for us, but he was under team control through 2015. He was traded to Pittsburgh as part of the deal for Hanrahan & Holt, but judging just the first trade looks like this...

 

2012: $521K/ -0.2 w BOS

2013: $521K/ 2.5 WAR w PIT

2014: $2.6M/ 2.2 WAR w PIT

2015: $5.4M/ 1.6 WAR w PIT

 

Jed Lowrie

2012: $1.2M/ 2.5 WAR w HOU

2013: $2.4M/ 3.5 WAR w HOU

2014: $5.3M/ 2.0 WAR w HOU

 

Kyle Weiland:

2012: $482K/ -0.2 WAR w HOU

 

Total for Melancon's 4 years: $9.4M/ 6.1 WAR

Total for JL & KW's 4 years: $9.4M/ 7.8 WAR

 

The trade looked bad for the Sox, at the time, and after Hanrahan gut hurt, it looked even worse, but looking at it in this fashion, it does not look so bad, especially when many figure RP'ers are shafted by WAR numbers.

 

Trade 2:

11/24/05: The Sox traded Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell. THE Sox won a ring, in large part to the great playoff pitching by Beckett and very good production from Beckett & Lowell all season long in 2007. Here are the numbers for only the original team control years:

 

Ramirez:

2006: $327K/ 4.4 WAR

2007: $404K/ 5.2 WAR

2008: $439K/ 7.5 WAR

(HRam signed an extension during the 2008 season but had one more arb year remaining)

2009: $5.5M/ 7.1 WAR

 

Sanchez:

2006: $381K/ 1.9 WAR (30 IP)

2007: $381K/ 0.0 WAR (5 IP)

2008: $390K/ 0.3 WAR (52 IP)

2009: $400K/ 0.7 WAR (86 IP)

2010: $1.3M/ 3.9 WAR

2011: $3.7M/ 3.5 WAR

2012: $8.0M/ 3.4 WAR (2 teams)

 

Beckett:

2006: $481K/ 1.0 WAR

2007: $6M (part of extension)/ 5.7 WAR

 

Lowell: (Was considered a salary dump.)

2006: $9M/ 2.5 WAR

2007: $9M/ 4.5 WAR

 

Marlin Totals: $21.2M/ 37.9 WAR

 

Sox Totals: $24.5M/13.7M

 

This method sure makes this deal look lopsided, while most Sox fans view it as a win-win.

 

[moonslav59]

I suspect the Mariners would prefer five years of Ariel Miranda to three years of Carson Smith and four years of Roenis Elias (even after Seattle's early lead in WAR production).

 

I respect this method of judging a trade, and one could argue that had the Sox kept Miley, we might have gotten Miranda for him, but this should not be the only way to judge a trade.

 

Surely, another method, such as looking at just Smith/Elias vs Miley only has merit.

[harmony]

Great but I don’t believe Ariel Miranda was included in the Sox trade.

Feel free to remove from the comparison Ariel Miranda's 0.1 fWAR and 1.9 bWAR.

[moonslav59]

Feel free to remove from the comparison Ariel Miranda's 0.1 fWAR and 1.9 bWAR.

 

If Carson Smith ends up blowing away Miley's WAR numbers, but Miranda out WARs Smith, I guess one could view the trade as close to a push, but it would make me wonder why we got so little for Miley after having a better season than he had the year Seattle traded him.

[jacksonianmarch]

Ariel Miranda sucks. He put up a 5+ ERA with a BABIP of .236. His HR rate was over 2 per 9IP. That isn't a typo. I know the sox didn't deal Miranda, but he was moved for Miley, so I get the comparison. The sox won that deal. Carson Smith didn't die or have a serious shoulder issue, he had TJS. Big whoop. He still came back throwing smoke. My guess is Carson returns as a good setup man and if he goes ever further into the elite category, he could make it easier to let Kimbrel walk. You got that for Wade Miley who hasn't found the strike zone since he was in the desert

[jacksonianmarch]

If Carson Smith ends up blowing away Miley's WAR numbers, but Miranda out WARs Smith, I guess one could view the trade as close to a push, but it would make me wonder why we got so little for Miley after having a better season than he had the year Seattle traded him.

 

It's very hard to compare WAR between a reliever and a starter. Right now, Miranda would be at AAA for you guys. If you kept Miley, he'd have been released. Instead you have Smith and you're top heavy in your rotation.

[mvp 78]

If Carson Smith ends up blowing away Miley's WAR numbers, but Miranda out WARs Smith, I guess one could view the trade as close to a push, but it would make me wonder why we got so little for Miley after having a better season than he had the year Seattle traded him.

 

Smith was a top end reliever prior to getting injured. I'm not sure the "got so little" is correct here.

[moonslav59]

Smith was a top end reliever prior to getting injured. I'm not sure the "got so little" is correct here.

 

You are right, but it does appear Seattle got a good return for Miley after Miley had a very bad season. I do think Miranda is probably better than his recent numbers.

[mvp 78]

You are right, but it does appear Seattle got a good return for Miley after Miley had a very bad season. I do think Miranda is probably better than his recent numbers.

 

Good for them. I still believe Miranda has nothing to do with the Sox trade.

[harmony]

A wide range of outcomes are possible for Carson Smith, a 28-year-old righthander with a single, but impressive, full MLB season three years ago.

 

At the time the trade was celebrated as a coup for the Red Sox but the deal has yet to pay noteworthy dividends.

 

I hope Carson Smith has a great career after injuries limited the reliever to 9.1 MLB innings (18 innings overall) the past two seasons.

[harmony]

Ariel Miranda sucks. He put up a 5+ ERA with a BABIP of .236. His HR rate was over 2 per 9IP. That isn't a typo. I know the sox didn't deal Miranda, but he was moved for Miley, so I get the comparison. The sox won that deal. Carson Smith didn't die or have a serious shoulder issue, he had TJS. Big whoop. He still came back throwing smoke. My guess is Carson returns as a good setup man and if he goes ever further into the elite category, he could make it easier to let Kimbrel walk. You got that for Wade Miley who hasn't found the strike zone since he was in the desert

Carson Smith never threw smoke as his average fastball of 92.9 mph was just that ... average. Smith relied heavily on his slider, perhaps to his physical detriment.

Edited January 10, 2018 by harmony

[moonslav59]

Good for them. I still believe Miranda has nothing to do with the Sox trade.

 

Directly, no.

 

A question: do you think us getting JBJ and Swihart as comp picks for losing Beltre should be factored into judging that decision?

 

(I know it is different. I'm just curious.)

[jacksonianmarch]

Hmmm. This gives me a different view of Smith. For some reason I thought he was a fire baller.